Northern rolling stock changes post electrification

[Class 170101]

So I imagine the next franchise will eventually just have a small fleet of 319s mainly for Liverpool services.

Sounds like trouble ahead having small fleets of various classes of train.

 

[stockport1]

Sounds like trouble ahead having small fleets of various classes of train.

I expect the majority of the 319 fleet will end up at northern.

20ish in use
17 to replace existing 323
Another 20 when Blackpool wiring is done
A few more when Stalybridge+windemere is done?

 

[northwichcat]

I expect the majority of the 319 fleet will end up at northern.

20ish in use
17 to replace existing 323
Another 20 when Blackpool wiring is done
A few more when Stalybridge+windemere is done?

I take it you missed the news about the new EMUs and the new service patterns. A 319 in Manchester in December 19 will be rarer than one now.

Northern will likely have 3 EMU classes - 319s based at Allerton, 333s at Neville Hill and the new EMUs spilt between Manchester and Leeds area services.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Arrivas winning bid included a lot of new build, 43 three and four car EMU and 55 two and three car DMU, though will mostly be for the Northern Connect branded services except for in the North East where the Northern Connect will be refurbished 158's and in South Manchester where new build will eventually replace the 323's (interim operated by 319's).

Plus they'll be doubled up 6 car formations of the new EMUs operating services currently operated by 333s and 321/2s. The information released seems to suggest 333s may get cascaded on to Doncaster services.

 

[childwallblues]

Liverpool to Manchester Airport is moving to the CLC route is it not when FTPE all goes over Chat Moss? They won't need/can't use 319's on the CLC route.

Plus Manchester Piccadilly-Manchester Airport
Blackpool North-Manchester Victoria/Airport
Preston-Hazel Grove

 

[northwichcat]

Plus Manchester Piccadilly-Manchester Airport
Blackpool North-Manchester Victoria/Airport
Preston-Hazel Grove

I'm not sure exactly what you are getting at with your post. Are those supposed to be routes which you think will be getting 319s?

One of the 319s in the current 20 has been earmarked for Manchester Piccadilly-Airport stopper, so no extra 319 is required for that. However, Arriva have said 323s will be replaced by new EMUs but as an interim measure refurbished EMUs will be used between the 323s leaving and the new ones being delivered.

Arriva have said Manchester to Preston/Blackpool will get brand new EMUs, we don't at present know if that means all Manchester to Preston services or just the Regional Express ones. The Bolton corridor is a place where 4 car 319s won't be sufficient on some services and the infrastructure doesn't allow for 8 car 319s.

 

[D365]

Plus they'll be doubled up 6 car formations of the new EMUs operating services currently operated by 333s and 321/2s. The information released seems to suggest 333s may get cascaded on to Doncaster services.

Don't think SYTPE would complain; seeing as they've been paying for the '4th cars'!

 

[northwichcat]

http://maps.dft.gov.uk/northern/index.html

Yes I missed that.

I wonder how the Stoke timetable will work if all the 323s are lost before getting new EMUs given the times are very tight at peak times and peak times will be when the Stoke services still call at all stations between Stockport and Macclesfield.

With regard to other services via Stockport, maybe having only EMUs stopping at Heaton Chapel and Levenshulme would help.

With regard to Hadfield TPE should be removing a minimum of 1tph through Guide Bridge from December 17 (3tph if the Ordsall Chord is ready) so it might be only concern there is if timings are slower, the short turnaround times won't work so an extra set will be required, increasing leasing costs.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

I expect the majority of the 319 fleet will end up at northern.
20ish in use
17 to replace existing 323
Another 20 when Blackpool wiring is done
A few more when Stalybridge+windemere is done?

The 20+17 will no doubt happen if the 323s depart before new EMUs arrive.
But they will reduce back to the 20 or fewer after that.
These look like working the Blackpool, 2xWigan, Airport and Warrington BQ services.
I guess Wigan-Bolton services could be 319s too, depending where they go.
Maybe Stalybridge when it's wired.
Windermere will be new EMUs I think.
It also depends on the arrival rate of the new trains, and their reliability.

So that still leaves over half the 319 fleet without a home (and no Cardiff Valley lines to work).

 

[D365]

But they will reduce back to the 20 or fewer after that.

Presumably it will be any refurbished/in better condition examples that will be retained.

So that still leaves over half the 319 fleet without a home (and no Cardiff Valley lines to work).

London Midland and Southeastern. Obviously

 

[northwichcat]

So that still leaves over half the 319 fleet without a home (and no Cardiff Valley lines to work).

I think Southeastern were looking at taking on 319s and LM were looking at taking on more.

Was there a reason why 319s were unsuitable for GWR but 365s will be? If not it possibly would have made more sense to give Northern 365s as 323 replacement rather than ordering new trains. When I've said 319s are square pegs and Northern will have some round holes to fill people on here have dismissed that as rubbish but it seems the decision makers at Arriva agree that 319s aren't suitable for just any electric service at Northern.

 

[swt_passenger]

I think Southeastern were looking at taking on 319s and LM were looking at taking on more.

Was there a reason why 319s were unsuitable for GWR but 365s will be?

IIRC the original idea when DfT proposed electrification was that the GW would get 319s for their proposed EMU routes. But around the same time Network Rail were also pointing out that for many services a 110 mph or even 125 mph capability would be much more advantageous. I think that is probably when the 387s entered the mix - they were an unexpected bonus, designed purely as a stopgap with Thaemslink. 110 mph upgrades to some Electrostars and Desiros would have been very much an unknown when the 319s were first mentioned.

At the same time there doesn't seem to be any apparent reason why 319s could not do the role the 365s are taking on, presumed to be the all stations stoppers and the branches. Perhaps they just got a better deal for 365s from the Rosco. Or maybe they have a longer life expectancy? And last but not least were they ever expected to become available back when 319s were seen as the GW solution? What I mean by that is that the replacement of 365s by 377s on the GN also came out of the blue to a certain extent. Hence it would never have been on the radar when GW wiring was first publicised either.

 

[Greybeard33]

I take it you missed the news about the new EMUs and the new service patterns. A 319 in Manchester in December 19 will be rarer than one now.

Northern will likely have 3 EMU classes - 319s based at Allerton, 333s at Neville Hill and the new EMUs spilt between Manchester and Leeds area services.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Plus they'll be doubled up 6 car formations of the new EMUs operating services currently operated by 333s and 321/2s. The information released seems to suggest 333s may get cascaded on to Doncaster services.

If the 16 4-car 333s are replaced on Airedale/Wharfedale services by 32 new 3-car EMUs, that means only 11 new build 4-car EMUs for the Northern Connect and Hadfield services in the North West. So plenty of 319s still needed! Unless I have missed something, brand new EMUs have not been explicitly promised to replace the 323s on the Stoke and Crewe lines - people on here have jumped to that conclusion.

I wonder how the Stoke timetable will work if all the 323s are lost before getting new EMUs given the times are very tight at peak times and peak times will be when the Stoke services still call at all stations between Stockport and Macclesfield.

The timings are not very tight. In the morning peak, the northbound Stoke stopper arrives at Stockport 7 minutes ahead of the following express, and in the evening, the stopper leaves Stockport 11 minutes after the preceding express. And maybe a 319 could reach 100mph between some of the stops?

 

[darloscott]

If the 16 4-car 333s are replaced on Airedale/Wharfedale services by 32 new 3-car EMUs, that means only 11 new build 4-car EMUs for the Northern Connect and Hadfield services in the North West. So plenty of 319s still needed! Unless I have missed something, brand new EMUs have not been explicitly promised to replace the 323s on the Stoke and Crewe lines - people on here have jumped to that conclusion.
The timings are not very tight. In the morning peak, the northbound Stoke stopper arrives at Stockport 7 minutes ahead of the following express, and in the evening, the stopper leaves Stockport 11 minutes after the preceding express. And maybe a 319 could reach 100mph between some of the stops?

Don't forget the 321/2's on the Airedale/Wharfedale services are also being replaced, I think that is 2 diagrams per day.

 

[D365]

Don't forget the 321/2's on the Airedale/Wharfedale services are also being replaced, I think that is 2 diagrams per day.

How many of the total 8 Class 321/322s are allocated to these aforementioned services?

 

[ScotGG]

I think Southeastern were looking at taking on 319s and LM were looking at taking on more.

SE have been asking the DfT for some 319s as they have a shortage of stock. Much money spent on upgrading the metro routes for 12 cars over the past 5 years but almost no 12-car services since it was completed.

The DfT are supposed to decide by mid 2016 apparently.

It's been said they can easily run on London Victoria to Orpington services as 319s have been there before and drivers signed. How many 465 and 466s would that free up? Also, if SE can get enough to run Victoria to Dartford and maybe Victoria to Gillingham how many 465 and 466s are available to then strengthen metro routes - would it be enough for a complete metro network of 12 car (or 10 if serving Woolwich Dockyard which would use 376s)?

SE badly need stock so I wouldn't worry about 319s lying in sidings.

 

[158722]

SE have been asking the DfT for some 319s as they have a shortage of stock. Much money spent on upgrading the metro routes for 12 cars over the past 5 years but almost no 12-car services since it was completed.

The DfT are supposed to decide by mid 2016 apparently.

It's been said they can easily run on London Victoria to Orpington services as 319s have been there before and drivers signed. How many 465 and 466s would that free up? Also, if SE can get enough to run Victoria to Dartford and maybe Victoria to Gillingham how many 465 and 466s are available to then strengthen metro routes - would it be enough for a complete metro network of 12 car (or 10 if serving Woolwich Dockyard which would use 376s)?

SE badly need stock so I wouldn't worry about 319s lying in sidings.

There appear to be 4 diagrams to cover the Victoria-Orpingtons, so 8 units (at least) if every one is an 8-coach set at present. Are there any services where 466s are used in pairs?

 

[northwichcat]

If the 16 4-car 333s are replaced on Airedale/Wharfedale services by 32 new 3-car EMUs, that means only 11 new build 4-car EMUs for the Northern Connect and Hadfield services in the North West. So plenty of 319s still needed! Unless I have missed something, brand new EMUs have not been explicitly promised to replace the 323s on the Stoke and Crewe lines - people on here have jumped to that conclusion.
The timings are not very tight. In the morning peak, the northbound Stoke stopper arrives at Stockport 7 minutes ahead of the following express, and in the evening, the stopper leaves Stockport 11 minutes after the preceding express. And maybe a 319 could reach 100mph between some of the stops?

A Rail Journal report posted in the Northern franchise award thread says the new EMUs will compliment the 333s in Yorkshire, so maybe 16 x 3 car sets to replace the 321s and 322s, given the mention of some 6 car workings? Manchester to Stoke, Crewe, Preston, Blackpool and Hadfield are also mentioned as getting new EMUs.

I was thinking in the evening peak the reason the Mid-Cheshire departure is off-pattern at 17:09 is to allow the 17:17 path to be used for a Stoke service and that service almost gets caught up by a Pendolino.

 

[Class 170101]

Was there a reason why 319s were unsuitable for GWR but 365s will be?

Class 365s are better off the mark than 319s. Its how 365s don't get caught on ECML by East Coast services between London and Hitchin.

 

[edwin_m]

Class 365s are better off the mark than 319s. Its how 365s don't get caught on ECML by East Coast services between London and Hitchin.

50% of axles motored versus 25% on a 319, and with AC motors too. Another reason might be safety case, as the early AC motored units were very difficult to get approval to run under older signalling systems. Signalling in GW electrified areas will all be new or newish so they won't have to cope with some of the oddball stuff that still exists here and there south of Manchester.

 

[WatcherZero]

Presumably it will be any refurbished/in better condition examples that will be retained.

Would have thought since its a requirement that they refurbish all units they also could hire more so that they can be worked on without reducing those already in service.

As an aside theres hundreds of Northern trains that will now need to be fully refurbished before 2019, if the average heavy overhaul refurbishment takes between 2 and 6 weeks that's a whole heap of depot work. The proposed refurbishment depot in Widnes makes even more sense now.

 

[Greybeard33]

A Rail Journal report posted in the Northern franchise award thread says the new EMUs will compliment the 333s in Yorkshire, so maybe 16 x 3 car sets to replace the 321s and 322s, given the mention of some 6 car workings? Manchester to Stoke, Crewe, Preston, Blackpool and Hadfield are also mentioned as getting new EMUs.

The wording in the Rail Journal report is a little odd:

The new EMUs will be deployed on Northern Connect services from Blackpool, Windermere and Preston to Manchester Piccadilly, Manchester Airport, Crewe, and Stoke-on-Trent. They will also be used on Manchester - Glossop/Hadfield services, which are currently operated by class 323 EMUs, and supplement the existing fleet of class 333 EMUs on services from Leeds to Ilkley, Skipton, and Doncaster.

This implies there will be cross-Manchester Northern Connect services to Crewe and Stoke, which is not mentioned on the DfT map. Nor does the map trumpet "brand new trains" for Crewe and Stoke like it does for Hadfield. Even if the press report is correct, it does not say the Alderley Edge and Macclesfield services will get new trains.

I agree a possible interpretation is that all the 333s will stay in Yorkshire and only the 321s/322s will be replaced by new doubled 3-car EMUs. That would mean about 27 new 4-car EMUs for the North West.

I was thinking in the evening peak the reason the Mid-Cheshire departure is off-pattern at 17:09 is to allow the 17:17 path to be used for a Stoke service and that service almost gets caught up by a Pendolino.

Agreed, but that one-off peak-only service does not fit into the standard Stoke line timetable anyway - the following Bournemouth service is diverted via Crewe to make room, and even then the stopper has to skip Kidsgrove to stay ahead of the next 390. Maybe DfT/Rail North will have to agree to this service skipping Adlington or Prestbury as well after the 323s depart?

 

[northwichcat]

As an aside theres hundreds of Northern trains that will now need to be fully refurbished before 2019, if the average heavy overhaul refurbishment takes between 2 and 6 weeks that's a whole heap of depot work. The proposed refurbishment depot in Widnes makes even more sense now.

Yes and if Northern take on the FGW 150/1s (and the remaining LM 150s which has been mooted) they'll be a load of work to do just to get the 150s refurbished and meeting the post-2019 requirements.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

This implies there will be cross-Manchester Northern Connect services to Crewe and Stoke, which is not mentioned on the DfT map. Nor does the map trumpet "brand new trains" for Crewe and Stoke like it does for Hadfield. Even if the press report is correct, it does not say the Alderley Edge and Macclesfield services will get new trains.

I agree it's not 100% clear. For the Glossop/Hadfield services DfT are saying they will be longer trains, which will eventually be new. Maybe they've not finalised rolling stock for Crewe/Stoke, if they will be getting 4 car 319s why are DfT not wanting to make a 'more capacity' claim as they usually would?

 

[CAF397]

This morning just after 10am I saw a 319 arriving into the main station at Piccadilly. I assume it was on a stopper from Crewe/Airport but I was unable to verify.

 

[Loop & Link]

371 on Picc-Airport shuttles which is now a booked working

 

[Class 170101]

Probably the Piccadilly to Airport shuttle.

The ones I have looked at so far have all lost time en-route.

 

[childwallblues]

Probably the Piccadilly to Airport shuttle.

The ones I have looked at so far have all lost time en-route.

Could be for a variety of reasons. Late running trains in front probably.

 

[urpert]

There appear to be 4 diagrams to cover the Victoria-Orpingtons, so 8 units (at least) if every one is an 8-coach set at present. Are there any services where 466s are used in pairs?

Not all the Orpington diagrams are 8 coaches - some are 6 (465+466) and some of the inter-peak services are only 4.

I've never seen a pair of 466s alone in over 20 years of using the line.

 

[hwl]

Not all the Orpington diagrams are 8 coaches - some are 6 (465+466) and some of the inter-peak services are only 4.

I've never seen a pair of 466s alone in over 20 years of using the line.

The peaks were usually all 8 car until Jan '15 when some of the stock was raided to extend trains into Cannon Street due to the London Bridge works. The 6 car services are very rammed.

 

[northwichcat]

Could be for a variety of reasons. Late running trains in front probably.

This one did badly: http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/Y90234/2015/12/14/advanced

Even though the train in front (the Glasgow to Airport service) was cancelled.

As did this one:
http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/Y90226/2015/12/14/advanced

With the train in front being a 319 running non-stop to Piccadilly on the Airport-Liverpool service. It didn't arrive on time despite the 5 minutes padding between Slade Lane Junction and Piccadilly being enough to cover the service leaving the Airport 3 minutes late. (The late departure was due to a late inbound service.)

 

[158722]

The peaks were usually all 8 car until Jan '15 when some of the stock was raided to extend trains into Cannon Street due to the London Bridge works. The 6 car services are very rammed.

So a fleet of 10x 319s to cover 8 diagrams (4x 8-car sets) would seem good for SE to have all Orpingtons as 8-car whilst freeing up a maximum of 8 465/466s for assisting with 12-car formations elsewhere. Not knowing SE operations that well, are there any other inner-sub workings which could go over to 319s vice Networkers?

I'm still not convinced that Northern won't be getting more 319s, even temporarily, until the new stock arrives. As has been said, the wording of official statements so far has been a bit ambiguous.