Northern rolling stock changes post electrification

[Y961 XBU]

Is anyone able to Confirm 100 Percent that a 319 Class is defo coming to Liverpool this Saturday?

 

[northwichcat]

Is anyone able to Confirm 100 Percent that a 319 Class is defo coming to Liverpool this Saturday?

You can't ever be 100% sure as things can happen like a unit problem, a track defect, staff sickness etc.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Anyway back on 319's Rail North gave the transport select committee this week figures for how much more rolling stock they need and how much they would like. They said they needed another 220 carriages to meet demand but they would like 460 carriages for the extra services they envisage.

So like I've said before more than half the 319s are needed for extra capacity at Northern before we can consider withdrawing older DMUs.

 

[DJH1971]

Is anyone able to Confirm 100 Percent that a 319 Class is defo coming to Liverpool this Saturday?

Anything on Real Train Times?

 

[Y961 XBU]

Anything on Real Train Times?

Just looked and nothing on there that i can see

http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/search/advanced/XAL/2014/09/06/0000-2359?stp=WVSC&show=all&order=wtt

 

[AM9]

You can't ever be 100% sure as things can happen like a unit problem, a track defect, staff sickness etc.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


So like I've said before more than half the 319s are needed for extra capacity at Northern before we can consider withdrawing older DMUs.

That's OK as by the time the new accessibility rules come in, TSGN will have finished with them all. There should be 348 cars, (86 sets). If that's not enough, there are some 317s with the ROSCO and then the ex Moorgate 313s can be released. There will be no sidings in which to store all this stock down south.
Rail North will need to speak to the DfT.

 

[petersi]

and then the ex Moorgate 313s can be released.

the 313's will be almost 42 years old so will any one want them

 

[hassaanhc]

the 313's will be almost 42 years old so will any one want them

They'll probably have to take them if the government says so, especially if existing diesels are needed elsewhere.

 

[158756]

They'll probably have to take them if the government says so, especially if existing diesels are needed elsewhere.

They'll need wires to run them on first. When the 313s are released there's expected to be all the 319s, most(all?) of the 315s, some 365s and some 387s released as well. Assuming all CP5 electrification is now announced who'd want 313s if it meant one of the others going for scrap?

 

[HSTEd]

They'll need wires to run them on first. When the 313s are released there's expected to be all the 319s, most(all?) of the 315s, some 365s and some 387s released as well. Assuming all CP5 electrification is now announced who'd want 313s if it meant one of the others going for scrap?

Constant talk of overcrowding and crummy services appears to have suppressed demand. And since the 313s are near the scrap heap the leasing charges should be relatively small.
You can throw units at everything and have train lengths you could only dream of before.

The valleys and south wales should be able to soak up the bulk of the 315 fleet.
387s are dialled in for Thames Valley which leaves us with a grab bag of 365s and 319s.
Could retain some 319s for Cambridge trains and displace the entire 365 fleet to TPE as its new fleet (365 likely has superior acceleration to a 319).
Although if the 319s can keep to the projected TPE-N electrification timetable might be better to give them the 319 fleet and keep the 365s in the south, send up some of TSGNs unit zoo to make up the shortfall of numbers.

In other words, you can find convincing duties for almost any number of units you have to use.

 

[Class377/5]

They'll need wires to run them on first. When the 313s are released there's expected to be all the 319s, most(all?) of the 315s, some 365s and some 387s released as well. Assuming all CP5 electrification is now announced who'd want 313s if it meant one of the others going for scrap?

The current displacements from Thameslink are

14x 319 by July 2015 (for Northern)
10x 387/1 by Dec 2016
62x 319 by early 2017
13x 321 by mid 2017
12x 317 by mid 2017
25-ishx 465 by late 2017
25x 377 by end of 2017 (for SE)
44x 313 by end of 2018
19x 387/1 by Dec 2018

 

[HSTEd]

TPE could easily soak up 60 Class 319s.
That removes your oversupply of units just like that.
While they are not swimming in power they should be able to get fairly close to matching Class 185 performance (the Class 185 appears to have 25% more power/tonne but those are engine horsepower and not axle horsepower and thus are not the same).

And since TPE electrification isn't finished right now you can actually give them a proper internal reconstruction and maybe even retraction them to get some more power and tractive effort out of them.

 

[158756]

TPE could easily soak up 60 Class 319s.
That removes your oversupply of units just like that.
While they are not swimming in power they should be able to get fairly close to matching Class 185 performance (the Class 185 appears to have 25% more power/tonne but those are engine horsepower and not axle horsepower and thus are not the same).

And since TPE electrification isn't finished right now you can actually give them a proper internal reconstruction and maybe even retraction them to get some more power and tractive effort out of them.

And who would pay for this massive capacity increase on TPE?
Electrification hasn't even started yet, but what are Northern going to use if the 319s are off being refurbished?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

TPE could easily soak up 60 Class 319s. That removes your oversupply of units just like that.

What is the current maximum traction unit depot capacity of both Northern Rail and of First TPE that could handle such a large number of Class 319 units that you state above ?

 

[deltic08]

TPE could easily soak up 60 Class 319s.
That removes your oversupply of units just like that.
While they are not swimming in power they should be able to get fairly close to matching Class 185 performance (the Class 185 appears to have 25% more power/tonne but those are engine horsepower and not axle horsepower and thus are not the same).

And since TPE electrification isn't finished right now you can actually give them a proper internal reconstruction and maybe even retraction them to get some more power and tractive effort out of them.

Whilst we have just about accepted 30 years old 319s to replace 30 years old Pacers at Northern, I don't think 319s would be acceptable to replace 10 years old 185s on TPE. Think again.

 

[Bantamzen]

TPE could easily soak up 60 Class 319s.
That removes your oversupply of units just like that.
While they are not swimming in power they should be able to get fairly close to matching Class 185 performance (the Class 185 appears to have 25% more power/tonne but those are engine horsepower and not axle horsepower and thus are not the same).

And since TPE electrification isn't finished right now you can actually give them a proper internal reconstruction and maybe even retraction them to get some more power and tractive effort out of them.

Fairly close performance wise would not be good enough though. The 185s do a good job in coping with the demands of the TPE routes, and whenever I've been in one climbing towards Marsden / Diggle in icy & snowy weather all that extra power really pays dividends. Could the 319s really cope with the demands of the North TP without having to rework the timetables?

And it would be a downgrade passenger wise from a 185 to 319 without a serious amount of refurbishment, and not forgetting that TPE are running some 185s in twos on some paths, so replacing them with 319s would cause it's own problems as some stations would struggle with an 8 car 319 set.

 

[childwallblues]

What is the current maximum traction unit depot capacity of both Northern Rail and of First TPE that could handle such a large number of Class 319 units that you state above ?

A good point. Once the Lancashire Electrification is complete storage would be available at Allerton, Stockport, Blackpool North, and Preston. Also it is to be hoped that the sidings at Manchester Victoria would be wired. Extending the wires the short distance from Miles Platting to Newton Heath could allow storage there. Also there will be overnight storage in the bays at Preston and Wigan North Western.

 

[Buspilot]

.....and the Stalybridge bays.

 

[AM9]

My post #1115, listing some of the EMUs that will be released in the next 5 years or so was in response to jcollins's post regarding the number of units needed at Northern before older DMUs could be released. There are many EMUs becoming surplus to LSE requirements that would be operationally more reliable and give better passenger experiences (according to the posts here) than the existing Pacers and 153s. Of course, the need for live knitting cannot be ignored but the route mileage currently in work and agreed must go some way to reducing the demand on what I must agree is a heavily worked DMU fleet.

Interestingly, Paul Sidorczuk picked up on my comment about where all this stock is parked as all across the UK, the insatiable appetite for land has removed a lot of the options for expansion in these rail renaissance days. This problem would be no different if shiny new stock was provided.

 

[HSTEd]

Fairly close performance wise would not be good enough though. The 185s do a good job in coping with the demands of the TPE routes, and whenever I've been in one climbing towards Marsden / Diggle in icy & snowy weather all that extra power really pays dividends. Could the 319s really cope with the demands of the North TP without having to rework the timetables?

Remember that the Class 185s are so enormously overweight that they cannot use any sort of differential speed.
I don't have the North TPE Sectional Appendix to hand but are there any differentials that could potentially affect the result?
I know that on the Hull route a 185 only just manages the same time as a 170 because there are SP Differentials all over the place - some of which might be convertible into EMU differentials.
The North TPE route is not really that steep in the scheme of things - the way the 185s are specced you would expect it to be some sort of continuous Lickey Incline.

And it would be a downgrade passenger wise from a 185 to 319 without a serious amount of refurbishment, and not forgetting that TPE are running some 185s in twos on some paths, so replacing them with 319s would cause it's own problems as some stations would struggle with an 8 car 319 set.

Well how long is there between the 319s being surplus to requirements and being needed for the newly completed TPE wiring?
There is time for a complete retraction and serious internal work.
And whilst an 80m 4-car train is not an enormous jump in capacity over a 69m 3-car train it is not negligible.
Has any work been done on accepting 160m trains at Huddersfield and other major stations?
Are the doubled up sets always the same paths or does every TPE station recieve some 6-car sets at present?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

And who would pay for this massive capacity increase on TPE?

Considering this massive capacity increase is one that DfT projections indicate has to occur anyway there is no massive cost - and doing it with 319s and so on that should (if the market functioned in any way at all) have lower leasing charges is likely to save money.

Electrification hasn't even started yet, but what are Northern going to use if the 319s are off being refurbished?

How about more 319s?
There are so many it is unlikely that the entire fleet would go off for work at once.

 

[Class 170101]

The current displacements from Thameslink are

14x 319 by July 2015 (for Northern)
10x 387/1 by Dec 2016
62x 319 by early 2017
13x 321 by mid 2017
12x 317 by mid 2017
25-ishx 465 by late 2017
25x 377 by end of 2017 (for SE)
44x 313 by end of 2018
19x 387/1 by Dec 2018

Thameslink has no 465s do you mean 365s on the GN route?

 

[swt_passenger]

Thameslink has no 465s do you mean 365s on the GN route?

I think he has written 'Thameslink' rather than the entire TSGN combined franchise. See also that the 377s passing from SN to SE are also listed; so the list is for units from all three relevant 'routes'.

 

[Greybeard33]

Well how long is there between the 319s being surplus to requirements and being needed for the newly completed TPE wiring?
There is time for a complete retraction and serious internal work.
And whilst an 80m 4-car train is not an enormous jump in capacity over a 69m 3-car train it is not negligible.
Has any work been done on accepting 160m trains at Huddersfield and other major stations?
Are the doubled up sets always the same paths or does every TPE station recieve some 6-car sets at present?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Considering this massive capacity increase is one that DfT projections indicate has to occur anyway there is no massive cost - and doing it with 319s and so on that should (if the market functioned in any way at all) have lower leasing charges is likely to save money.

If platforms are lengthened to accommodate 160m trains, Network Rail's borrowings will have to increase to fund the infrastructure investment. So DfT will have to increase the Network Grant subsidy to cover the on-going increase in interest charges.

On the other hand, the TOC would presumably incur increased leasing costs, somewhat offset by reduced maintenance costs and track access charges, if it procured new-build 69m 3-car EMUs instead of refurbished and retractioned 319s. This would potentially require an increased DfT subsidy to the TOC.

Can anyone estimate the relative net subsidy costs of these two options?

 

[Class377/5]

Thameslink has no 465s do you mean 365s on the GN route?

I did indeed mean 365s.

I think he has written 'Thameslink' rather than the entire TSGN combined franchise. See also that the 377s passing from SN to SE are also listed; so the list is for units from all three relevant 'routes'.

Technically I was referring to Thameslink/700 caused cascades which actually includes SE, Southern and GN.

If platforms are lengthened to accommodate 160m trains, Network Rail's borrowings will have to increase to fund the infrastructure investment. So DfT will have to increase the Network Grant subsidy to cover the on-going increase in interest charges.

According to the ORR, its Investment Framework can be used by direct awards to get improvements built. Sounds like Northern could take advantage of this.

On the other hand, the TOC would presumably incur increased leasing costs, somewhat offset by reduced maintenance costs and track access charges, if it procured new-build 69m 3-car EMUs instead of refurbished and retractioned 319s. This would potentially require an increased DfT subsidy to the TOC.

Can anyone estimate the relative net subsidy costs of these two options?

While the only rule of thumb of 2x as much for refurbishment and 4x as much as new build. However the 69m new build vs 80m 319 also means differences in revenue with the 319 having a higher possible income while having a lower rental cost so its cost to benefit ratio will be far higher than new build.

 

[user15681]

Looks like at least one may move from Wolverton to Allerton on Tuesday 9th September. I'd have thought it would be too soon for 319363 to be done, given it only arrived on the 1st.

5X19 - http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/K07607/2014/09/09/advanced

 

[AM9]

Looks like at least one may move from Wolverton to Allerton on Tuesday 9th September. I'd have thought it would be too soon for 319363 to be done, given it only arrived on the 1st.

5X19 - http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/K07607/2014/09/09/advanced

Must be something else as the trailing load is billed as 800 tonnes.

 

[Class377/5]

Looks like at least one may move from Wolverton to Allerton on Tuesday 9th September. I'd have thought it would be too soon for 319363 to be done, given it only arrived on the 1st.

5X19 - http://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/train/K07607/2014/09/09/advanced

319363 isn't haveing the same work done as 362 as the original plan was for 319362/363 to go to Allteron on Monday.

 

[8J]

Well the wires went live at Allerton this morning. The 319 was out of the shed (still showing its FCC colours) with its pantograph up.

 

[northwichcat]

While the only rule of thumb of 2x as much for refurbishment and 4x as much as new build. However the 69m new build vs 80m 319 also means differences in revenue with the 319 having a higher possible income while having a lower rental cost so its cost to benefit ratio will be far higher than new build.

There's all sorts of factors to take in to consideration, such as you could run a service every 20 minutes using 4 carriages or one every 15 minutes using 3 carriages, how much infrastructure alterations are required for longer trains, whether a consistent fleet can be used for different routes etc.

Alex Hynes recently said 4 car EMUs on the Liverpool-Manchester route will make it easier for revenue collection as they will be equipped so that the conductor doesn't have to return to the back of the train to make an announcement or to release the doors.

There's also the advantage of where 319s replace formations including a 150/1 or a 142 that the conductor can walk from one end to the other. However, as neither the 319s or 323s have corridor connectors at present if longer term Northern run doubled up EMUs then the problem they are solving now may re-appear in a few years time.

 

[thealexweb]

A good point. Once the Lancashire Electrification is complete storage would be available at Allerton, Stockport, Blackpool North, and Preston. Also it is to be hoped that the sidings at Manchester Victoria would be wired. Extending the wires the short distance from Miles Platting to Newton Heath could allow storage there. Also there will be overnight storage in the bays at Preston and Wigan Wallgate.

There is also Bolton's Platform 2. The bay platform is currently used to store up to 4 x 23m DMU cars overnight.

 

[physics34]

which 377s are we intending to send to SE? Hopefully they dont include 377101-120 (with their 2x2 seats throughout..)