Northern rolling stock changes post electrification

[HSTEd]

So with Southport passengers excluded what does it look like crowding wise?

 

[northwichcat]

So with Southport passengers excluded what does it look like crowding wise?

Well not everyone boarding before Wigan continues their journey to Salford Crescent or central Manchester and I'm not sure how many Southport-Manchester passengers will find Victoria an acceptable alternative. People wanting places such as the Universities will likely change to the electric service at Wigan or Salford Crescent for Oxford Rd station while anyone wanting Bolton or the Airport will have to change to the electric service.

 

[WatcherZero]

Busy 4 car Sprinter at peak times sounds like just running a Class 319 would not be a disaster.
We shouldn't just assume that explosive passenger number growth is going to occur - because that way we risk getting caught out.

If 4 cars is not enough then we should discuss it once it is demonstrated to be the case.

Already demonstrated to be the case for the TPE services :P
They always arrive at Wigan from Preston with people already standing so a 40+ minute journey to Manchester would be well in breach of the 20m max standing time Dft guidance.

On the local lines 4 car would generally be full but not bursting today but leave no room for future growth, particularly if as the TPE service going from 3 to 4 and 6 to 8 has highlighted there is suppressed demand that can be released by longer or more frequent trains.

 

[northwichcat]

Already demonstrated to be the case for the TPE services :P
They always arrive at Wigan from Preston with people already standing so a 40+ minute journey to Manchester would be well in breach of the 20m max standing time Dft guidance.

You could also argue the lack of a Wigan call on the 17:00 Airport departure is only because there is no room on the train for Wigan passengers. Of course for Scottish services the logical solution is 8 car services between Scotland and Preston and the busiest services continue to Manchester Airport as 8 cars, while the quieter ones have the rear train detached at Preston and sent to Liverpool.

 

[HSTEd]

Future Growth does not have to be accounted for now..... it has to be accounted for in the future.

4-cars will be adequate on many services today, we can worry about lengthening when those are bursting.

 

[northwichcat]

Future Growth does not have to be accounted for now..... it has to be accounted for in the future.

4-cars will be adequate on many services today, we can worry about lengthening when those are bursting.

It's not today though. It's December 2016 when the Bolton services will switch to EMU so we should be at least using projected passenger figures for December 2016, not current loadings. Given it may take a couple of years to acquire different EMUs or lengthen platforms then really we should use predicted December 2018 figures to be on the safe side.

If we use current figures then we'll just repeats of mistakes made by DfT affecting the North around 10 years ago.

 

[HSTEd]

If the Class 319s can be fitted with SDO cheaply then we should just do that and run 8-cars.

It avoids the capital cost on the serious reconstruction to shorten them now and doesn't land us with a bill for new 8-car trains when those are inevitably required later on.

EDIT:
Does the Class 319 cab have a door into the passenger saloon?
If so what is the actual length of the train between the end passenger doors, as the trains do not have end doors?

In other words, if stop boards were moved so that the very ends of the carriages went off the platforms, how long would the platforms have to be to get every passenger door on the platform.

 

[387star]

319008 appears to have had its Southern logos re-applied.

Interesting. ..

 

[northwichcat]

^^ Now is that really reapplied or had they been covered up with a vinyl and had the vinyl covering them removed?

 

[westcoaster]

Seen it a few times this week, I think they ran out of white stickers to cover it over, after removing the FCC branding.

 

[fowler9]

Future Growth does not have to be accounted for now..... it has to be accounted for in the future.

4-cars will be adequate on many services today, we can worry about lengthening when those are bursting.

By the time future growth has happened it is too late to say "We don't have enough capacity" and then plan for the future with the figures we have now.

 

[tbtc]

At the moment there are (roughly) eight DMUs an hour from central Manchester to Bolton - though with a large number of those being two coaches long (or, if doubled up, doubled up 142s).

Assuming that the half hourly Atherton service is the same as the half hourly Southport service (and Kirkby becomes a self contained shuttle to Wigan Wallgate) then once we've got the wires up the eight trains per hour become seven EMUs (plus one DMU for the unelectrified Blackburn service).

Say you have something like

• 
  [*]xx.00 to Blackpool (319)
  [*]xx.07 to Wigan (319)
  [*]xx.15 to Lancaster/ Windermere (319)
  [*]xx.22 to Blackburn/ Clitheroe (DMU)
  [*]xx.30 to Blackpool (319)
  [*]xx.37 to Wigan (319)
  [*]xx.45 to Preston (319)
  [*]xx.52 to Wigan (319)

(assuming that the Scottish services stay via Wigan North Western - lets not have that argument again)

SO, given the capacity increase if an 80m 319 replaces the mainly 30m/ 40m/ 46m/ 60m/ 69m DMUs that provide many Bolton services (and the faster acceleration of the EMUs and uniform top speed mean that the gaps between the "fast" and "slow" services is less pronounced than now), that should spread the passenger numbers over the hour a bit better than the current arrangement (where any savvy passenger is more likely to go for the longer services with more seats, which is generally going to be the longer distance Blackpool/ Barrow service which means that the longer distance services are going to get disproportionately busy with short distance passengers).

Basically, the short version of what I'm trying to say is that the post-electrification timetable should smooth passenger numbers out a big better, which means that the current pressure on the few 2x156s should be a bit easier - we need to stop thinking about (just) the current timetable.

Then, after five/ten years of seeing how the passenger numbers behave, there'll probably be some new stock (as the 319s reach the end of their lives) - whether that's 20m/23m and whether that's three coach/ four coach remains to be seen.

 

[edwin_m]

According to the sectional appendix, Salford Crescent platform 1 is 158m and platform 2 is 153m, so we're only talking about adding 7m to the shortest one e.g. converting the end ramps to usable platform space might do it (newly built platforms e.g. the recent Cambridge and Peterborough additions, have squared off ends with fencing so ramps are obviously not a requirement now)

Clifton is 172m, Bolton is 200m+, Lostock is 155m, Horwich Parkway is 142m, Chorley is 140m, Buckshaw Parkway is 150m, so accommodating limited stop 8-car 319s Manchester-Preston doesn't feel like a huge undertaking in terms of platform lengthening.

You actually need about 5m more than the train length to allow for inaccuracy in stopping. Salford Crescent platforms were lengthened fairly recently so may have squared off ends already - can anyone who passes through more often than I do answer this?

 

[Bevan Price]

Clifton isn't served by any services which will be converted to electric operation, neither is Moses Gates, Kearsley or Farnworth. Farnworth is the one with the highest usage out of those 4 if you considering adding additional services.

.

But we don't know exactly what services will operate after electrification. Some, at least, of the above stations may get through services to Wigan, Preston, or elsewhere, with a skip-stop pattern of services (similar to that to be used for intermediate stations on the Manchester / Huddersfield line. )

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

By the time future growth has happened it is too late to say "We don't have enough capacity" and then plan for the future with the figures we have now.

I don't think that's how DfT planning works.
There will be a cap on the number of vehicles/units for the new franchise.
It will probably be more than now, but it won't be "as many as you want".
Otherwise the subsidy just rockets.
That's why they are talking about "tailoring services better to demand".

 

[fowler9]

I don't think that's how DfT planning works.
There will be a cap on the number of vehicles/units for the new franchise.
It will probably be more than now, but it won't be "as many as you want".
Otherwise the subsidy just rockets.
That's why they are talking about "tailoring services better to demand".

Yeah of course mate. The system we have at the mo isn't that bad but I feel to an extent we are still planning for the demand we have now.

 

[158756]

But we don't know exactly what services will operate after electrification. Some, at least, of the above stations may get through services to Wigan, Preston, or elsewhere, with a skip-stop pattern of services (similar to that to be used for intermediate stations on the Manchester / Huddersfield line. )

The services calling at intermediate stations between Bolton and Salford Crescent already go to Wigan. AIUI the proposal for skip-stopping the Huddersfield route was only supposed to be necessary prior to electrification.

 

[WatcherZero]

I don't think that's how DfT planning works.
There will be a cap on the number of vehicles/units for the new franchise.
It will probably be more than now, but it won't be "as many as you want".
Otherwise the subsidy just rockets.
That's why they are talking about "tailoring services better to demand".

And the simple answer is give it the freedom to order additional units itself to meet demand if so required like the southern tocs have done rather than being in the straitjacket where it couldnt even keep the units it had without PTE intervention to block Westminster putting them back in a national cascade pool. Even when Northern has been able to say it could operate a additional service on a commercial basis (as it has done several times to PTE requests) its still had to have Dft approval for the extra costs (even when paying for them wholly out of its own pocket or with local funding) and then surrender the extra revenue back to Dft. All the costs of rolling stock leasing, operation and maintenence combined only make up a third of Northerns runnings costs with the bulk being staffing. Even with higher leasing costs when under Rail North as it will be rather than Dft management up until commencement it should be free to say the marginal cost of longer stock means this decision is worthwhile and here are the figures to prove it.

 

[HSTEd]

As it appears Thames Valley is going to need new stock.... is there any way for Northern to use up the entire fleet of 86 Cl319s?
Replacing individual Pacers with 4-car sets might do it I suppose....

Maybe they should fund a special addon scheme like the hull one, specifically for Pacer replacement. (Marple or somesuch)

 

[12CSVT]

^^ Now is that really reapplied or had they been covered up with a vinyl and had the vinyl covering them removed?

The Southern logos on 319008 looked fairly recent and certainly didn't look faded.

 

[childwallblues]

As it appears Thames Valley is going to need new stock.... is there any way for Northern to use up the entire fleet of 86 Cl319s?
Replacing individual Pacers with 4-car sets might do it I suppose....

Maybe they should fund a special addon scheme like the hull one, specifically for Pacer replacement. (Marple or somesuch)

Hunts Cross to Trafford Park electrification would remove the last diesel hauled local stopping trains out of Liverpool Lime Street.

 

[Wavertreelad]

Hunts Cross to Trafford Park electrification would remove the last diesel hauled local stopping trains out of Liverpool Lime Street.

That's assuming the Halton curve and route to Chester is electrified. It will be interesting to see which is the first to be electrified.

 

[DJH1971]

Hunts Cross to Trafford Park electrification would remove the last diesel hauled local stopping trains out of Liverpool Lime Street.

And needs to be done.

 

[northwichcat]

The services calling at intermediate stations between Bolton and Salford Crescent already go to Wigan. AIUI the proposal for skip-stopping the Huddersfield route was only supposed to be necessary prior to electrification.

The HLOS proposes a half-hourly Piccadilly-Leeds semi-fast from December 2016. Network Rail say there would be provision to introduce a new Piccadilly (not Victoria)-Huddersfield stopping service post-electrification if there's demand for one alongside the stoppers but they aren't guaranteeing it.

 

[childwallblues]

That's assuming the Halton curve and route to Chester is electrified. It will be interesting to see which is the first to be electrified.

I don't think its dependent on the Halton Chord being done. There is no connection between the two.

 

[Manchester77]

Hunts Cross to Trafford Park electrification would remove the last diesel hauled local stopping trains out of Liverpool Lime Street.

It also would release a lot of DMUs for various different roles.

 

[edwin_m]

It also would release a lot of DMUs for various different roles.

About 6 diagrams, from the local service only, plus perhaps some peak strengthers. Half the trains are (or will be) running through onto the Hope Valley so have to remain as DMUs.

 

[fowler9]

About 6 diagrams, from the local service only, plus perhaps some peak strengthers. Half the trains are (or will be) running through onto the Hope Valley so have to remain as DMUs.

Would it only be about 6 diagrams or would that be the minimum number for a half hourly Cheshire Lines service? I'm sure I see more than 6 sets of units on a daily basis on the Liverpool to Warrington and Manchesters. They run past the bottom of my garden and I use them on a very regular basis.

Apologies, you did say some peak strengtheners. still would have thought more than 6 diagrams covered the route though.

 

[Wavertreelad]

I don't think its dependent on the Halton Chord being done. There is no connection between the two.

Think the "wires" are crossed here! Your original post stated that electrifying the CLC route to Trafford Park would remove the last DMU service from Lime Street. The point I was making was that when the Halton Curve is completed, there is as far as I know no plan in the public domain to electrify the route from the curve to Chester and beyond so any "local service" using the route would need to be operated by DMU's which would need to be operated by Northern from Lime Street and that also excludes and trans Pennine services using the route. So ignoring these later services, the question is which route, Halton Curve or CLC, would be electrified first and thus enable DMU's to be abolished from local services into Lime Street.

We may get a clue next month when Merseytravel publish their long term transport region for the region, bearing in mind that they have previously indicated support for electrifying the CLC to Warrington, although they did not state if this was by extending the existing Merseyrail 3rd rail network, or with OHLE from LSP. The Chancellors Autumn statement in November is also likely to contain some plans to further electrification in the North of England, which could include both routes.

 

[edwin_m]

Would it only be about 6 diagrams or would that be the minimum number for a half hourly Cheshire Lines service? I'm sure I see more than 6 sets of units on a daily basis on the Liverpool to Warrington and Manchesters. They run past the bottom of my garden and I use them on a very regular basis.

Apologies, you did say some peak strengtheners. still would have thought more than 6 diagrams covered the route though.

It may be that some units today interwork between the CLC route and other routes, so that more than 6 (excluding peak strengtheners) would be seen on local services during the course of a day. This is more likely at the Liverpool end than at Manchester, where this is the only service terminating at Oxford Road so can't easily switch to another service. However any interworking would probably no longer happen if the other routes were electrified, as diagrams would be rearranged to provide EMUs on those routes instead.