Otherwise, there's practises in use at Arriva TOCs which I don't agree with, and can see them introducing unnecessary first class, reducing standard class capacity further.
If you are referring their introduction on the 170s then you will find that it is a franchise commitment, not Arriva's fault. Blame it on the DfT.
It is only one end of each 170 unit. If the service really is
that wedged, the guard wouldn't be able to make it through anyway, and on the couple of occasions when this happens, I have always seen the guard declassifying the First area. Granted I can't guarantee you it always happens but my experiences are positive.
They also seem happy to do the bare minimum with service levels and I could see the off peak restrictions becoming even stronger, and all easements to them removed.
Off-Peak ticket restrictions I can agree with, but that is going to be a trend with all operators with further squeezes on government subsidy, whoever wins the franchise.
If by "do the bare minimum with service levels" you mean the Stansted/Leicester routes, then tell me what else they can do with the constraint on rolling stock? I have been in regular conversation with XC over capacity issues on this line for years, and their hands are pretty much tied on that. It was made worse with the with the withdrawal of the direct Coventry services.
As for stagecoach, I worry that with around a year left in the EMT franchise, that the competent managers will all leave EMT, for the TPE franchise. (not like I'd blame them, as their future would otherwise be uncertain). This could leave EMT in a mess by the end of the franchise, which could take years to rectify.
They won't. TPE personnel will remain for the foreseeable future, and if there were to be reshuffles, it is only normal practice for any transport group.
Your worries are mainly down to whether Stagecoach wins the next EM franchise. It has nothing to do with whether they win the TPE franchise. If a TOC is going to run down a franchise because it is being handed over soon, it will do so, regardless of other factors.
In any event, judging from your regular thoughts on EMT management, I would think any change would be considered a good change.