I still think there is a very high chance of CAF Mk5s. When is the Sleeper kit meant to be finished? Is it an easy follow-on order?
CAF stock for Caledonian Sleeper not due until April 2018, but that could be delayed by the fit out which is really bespoke, a conventional seated carriage order may be progressed more quickly, but there will still be extensive testing to be conducted prior to entry into service.
Common sense, which is clearly in short supply before we're throwing away silly money on LHCS, would be to re-jig IEP delivery and free up Mark 4 stock on the East Coast early which can then be hauled around by Class 68 diesels, with GWR getting their IEP sets a year later, but for various (mainly ROSCO) reasons, this is difficult to achieve.
A Class 68 on a rake of 6 Mark 4 coaches isn't the worst idea out there, but it's still pretty crazy, however it would allow, in the fullness of time, a Class 88 locomotive (or another design) to come in, with 4MW installed power, and run 110mph services with a full Mark 4 rake of 9 carriages + DVT (or new build driving vehicle). There's also no real reason why a more powerful electric design from Vossloh or another builder, with 125mph top speed, couldn't be introduced.
There's little doubt that with sensible timetabling, you could fill 4 9 carriage trains per hour between York, Leeds and Manchester, by mid 2020s.