New TPE Train Discussion

[northwichcat]

Old news - that is from a 2014 press release
They lease these extra 5 but they are sub-leased back to GWR at present

Yes but that's the most recent press release GC have done which confirms they are getting more 180s, so there's nothing to suggest they will get HT ones.
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I suppose the other entanglement is that First Groups AT300 contract was 29 for GWR plus options on 30 more. Since when it seems Hull Trains have taken 5, leaving 25 options - is 32 suitably close to continue in a way that 44 isnt? Is that a reason for the 12 WCML units to be ordered from elsewhere?

It could be a ROSCO has an additional option. It had seemed GWR had taken up the final option for more 387s but then Porterbrook revealed they had an option to obtain 20 more and were taking it up.

 

[Haydn1971]

I suppose the other entanglement is that First Groups AT300 contract was 29 for GWR plus options on 30 more. Since when it seems Hull Trains have taken 5, leaving 25 options - is 32 suitably close to continue in a way that 44 isnt? Is that a reason for the 12 WCML units to be ordered from elsewhere?

Ah, that's an interesting set of numbers - although it might not necessarily be a different manufacturer, could be the same "design" of 12 trains, just procured under a new order rather than a follow on order.

Lost on the seven though :-/

 

[northwichcat]

It could be a ROSCO has an additional option. It had seemed GWR had taken up the final option for more 387s but then Porterbrook revealed they had an option to obtain 20 more and were taking it up.

After posting that I've heard a rumour it will be 25 x AT300s, plus 7 trains of another type which may not have a 125mph top speed (maybe for Liverpool-Scarborough?)

 

[87015]

After posting that I've heard a rumour it will be 25 x AT300s, plus 7 trains of another type which may not have a 125mph top speed (maybe for Liverpool-Scarborough?)

13 sets?

 

[Haydn1971]

After posting that I've heard a rumour it will be 25 x AT300s, plus 7 trains of another type which may not have a 125mph top speed (maybe for Liverpool-Scarborough?)

So that's now...

29 Class 185's running as both 3 and 6 car units
25 AT300's running as 5 car units (all bi-mode?), and
7 trains of another type ?

What happened to the new 44x 5 car trains ?

 

[northwichcat]

So that's now...

29 Class 185's running as both 3 and 6 car units
25 AT300's running as 5 car units (all bi-mode?), and
7 trains of another type ?

What happened to the new 44x 5 car trains ?

I was meaning for North TPE so the 12 for Scottish services via Preston aren't included.

The things we've heard in relation to 185s are actually official.
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13 sets?

Having too many 125mph sets would be better than too few.

 

[Haydn1971]

I was meaning for North TPE so the 12 for Scottish services via Preston aren't included.

Ok, cheers... So...

12 AT300 EMU's for Scotland
25 AT300 Bi-modes for TPE North fasts
7 other for LIV-SCA, and
29 185's for TPE North semi fasts and TPE South

Begs the question, why get something new for LIV-SCA when you've already got 185's that could do that run ? A five car unit that costs as much as a single 185 to run perhaps ? They did say 44x 5 car trains

 

[Hophead]

It's not clear that the West Coast EMUs will be AT300s. And even Hitachi will eventually have to start declining orders due to there being no further capacity.

 

[Clarence Yard]

The number of AT300 bi-modes looks too high. FG has an option for 30. Five are for Hull, around five for East Coast Trains Ltd (their proposed open access Edinburgh service) so that leaves approx 20 AT300 bi-mode for TPE.

If the Scottish services are 12 straight electric sets, that leaves 12 sets of an unspecified type (presumably not an AT300) as the rest. We know they will be new but that is all we definitely know, despite all the rumours.

 

[class26]

The number of AT300 bi-modes looks too high. FG has an option for 30. Five are for Hull, around five for East Coast Trains Ltd (their proposed open access Edinburgh service) so that leaves approx 20 AT300 bi-mode for TPE.

If the Scottish services are 12 straight electric sets, that leaves 12 sets of an unspecified type (presumably not an AT300) as the rest. We know they will be new but that is all we definitely know, despite all the rumours.

I am sure I read somewhere recently (can`t remember where) that Virgin were to implement their full programme with IEP which meant that the open access proposals would not proceed so First would not be needed any new stock for the East Coast.

 

[Haydn1971]

that leaves 12 sets of an unspecified type (presumably not an AT300) as the rest. We know they will be new but that is all we definitely know, despite all the rumours.

Could these end up being pure diesel units ? That said, CAF, Bombardier, Stadler have proven bi-mode solutions, the CAF ones being most traditional it seems, would Siemens or Alstom be that keen to build a small order of 12x 5 car bi-mode or diesel units ? CAF, surely have to be front runner here with the win for Northern DMU's in their pocket, they could have the maintenance for their Northern and TPE units in one place too.

 

[edwin_m]

In his email update this morning, Roger Ford seemed pretty sure TPE will be ordering AT300s.

 

[Haydn1971]

In his email update this morning, Roger Ford seemed pretty sure TPE will be ordering AT300s.

I don't think anyone is challenging that, just how many is in question.

 

[Hophead]

In his email update this morning, Roger Ford seemed pretty sure TPE will be ordering AT300s.

AT300 bi-modes is what he specifically refers to.

 

[NotATrainspott]

FirstGroup may have an option for only another 30 AT300s but that doesn't mean they won't be able to get more. If the option were for an older design of train that the manufacturer wanted to phase out, e.g. 350s, then that would be different but Hitachi want to be building AT300s for quite a while yet and so they're not going to put barriers in the way of extra orders. If they did so, then it would help provide an opening for a competitor as the order would have to go somewhere else and if another manufacturer can deliver a few units of a new type, then they'll be able to compete in future too.

 

[The Ham]

FirstGroup may have an option for only another 30 AT300s but that doesn't mean they won't be able to get more. If the option were for an older design of train that the manufacturer wanted to phase out, e.g. 350s, then that would be different but Hitachi want to be building AT300s for quite a while yet and so they're not going to put barriers in the way of extra orders. If they did so, then it would help provide an opening for a competitor as the order would have to go somewhere else and if another manufacturer can deliver a few units of a new type, then they'll be able to compete in future too.

Quite, also First may not want to use up all their options as they may want to keep some in hand incase they need to use them to create capacity.

 

[Haydn1971]

FirstGroup may have an option for only another 30 AT300s but that doesn't mean they won't be able to get more. If the option were for an older design of train that the manufacturer wanted to phase out, e.g. 350s, then that would be different but Hitachi want to be building AT300s for quite a while yet and so they're not going to put barriers in the way of extra orders. If they did so, then it would help provide an opening for a competitor as the order would have to go somewhere else and if another manufacturer can deliver a few units of a new type, then they'll be able to compete in future too.

I'm sure Hitachi would love more orders, but are they able to deliver in the timeframe and is the price of the extra units acceptable to first - if delivery is well after the franchise timeframe or costs are 10-20% more per unit, First will look elsewhere - simple as that.

Hitachi currently have a monopoly on bi-modes in the UK market, that's not good for the buyer, as it reduces their negotiating power to a take it or leave it state.

I suspect the additional trains are coming under new contract terms, so will cost more per unit, thus complicating the delivery contract signing.

 

[northwichcat]

I think the reason AT300s have been mooted for North TPE is because First need a batch delivering quickly so it needs to be an existing design but that doesn't mean a second batch couldn't be a slightly different design.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

We are all getting fixated on specific new trains.
I doubt that the franchise contract specifies new trains, or particular types, just capacity, frequency and performance across the TPE routes.
I don't doubt TPE are planning new trains in the numbers quoted, but wouldn't be surprised if things tuned out a bit differently.
There will be small print of the "subject to contract" sort, not to mention financing which is where some recent deals have come unstuck.
And IEP/AT300 has not yet turned a wheel in revenue service.

 

[northwichcat]

I doubt that the franchise contract specifies new trains, or particular types, just capacity, frequency and performance across the TPE routes.

It's almost certain that 44 x new 5 car 'Intercity' trains will be written in to the franchise contract as the franchise was awarded on that basis.

We do know the TPE agreement states that by December 2017 15 x Manchester-Newcastle services per day must get between the two cities in no more than 2 hours 20 minutes. 185s currently take 2 hours 30 minutes, so a faster train is almost certainly required.

It's also possible the TPE franchise agreement will include an option for more trains if the franchise gets extended or if passenger growth is higher than expected, like the Scotrail agreement.

 

[edwin_m]

I'm sure Hitachi would love more orders, but are they able to deliver in the timeframe and is the price of the extra units acceptable to first - if delivery is well after the franchise timeframe or costs are 10-20% more per unit, First will look elsewhere - simple as that.

Hitachi currently have a monopoly on bi-modes in the UK market, that's not good for the buyer, as it reduces their negotiating power to a take it or leave it state.

I suspect the additional trains are coming under new contract terms, so will cost more per unit, thus complicating the delivery contract signing.

They have already proved themselves willing to open production in Italy as well as the UK, and could presumably produce some more in Japan if they had to. No doubt Hitachi are very aware of their status as sole supplier and if they fall down on delivery or availability or quote silly prices they will let a competitor into the market. For example the Bombardier Aventra range includes bi-modes and CAF might be able to put something together from the DMU and EMU designs they are doing for Northern.

 

[swt_passenger]

And IEP/AT300 has not yet turned a wheel in revenue service.

IEP no, but 395/Javelin is an existing AT300 though, and is well into revenue service.

The Class 395 is the first High Speed commuter train in the UK and part of Hitachi’s family of AT300 units.

http://www.hitachirail-eu.com/at300---intercity-high-speed_153.html

Producing a 5 car x 23m version of that shouldn't be too difficult, but do I agree that the bi-mode version is not yet in service.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A bi-mode is not difficult for anyone to do. It's an EMU with some additional diesel generator packs, no doubt off the shelf.

 

[The Ham]

A bi-mode is not difficult for anyone to do. It's an EMU with some additional diesel generator packs, no doubt off the shelf.

(Although not relevant for TPE at present) depending on the gap in the wires there is always the option of using batteries (as has been being tested recently).

 

[northwichcat]

(Although not relevant for TPE at present) depending on the gap in the wires there is always the option of using batteries (as has been being tested recently).

I don't know if there's any truth in it but someone claimed if a 379 with a battery was used on Manchester Airport to Barrow it could get there and back but it would need to sit for a while to recharge at Manchester Airport to ensure it had enough power for the next working which might cause issues if the southbound service gets delayed.

I think it was claimed Hitachi bi-mode would have a range of 700 miles off the wires between diesel refills which to me sounds fine for North TPE.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don't know if there's any truth in it but someone claimed if a 379 with a battery was used on Manchester Airport to Barrow it could get there and back but it would need to sit for a while to recharge at Manchester Airport to ensure it had enough power for the next working which might cause issues if the southbound service gets delayed.

Can't it charge while on the move? It won't be drawing maximum power when coasting at speed.

 

[northwichcat]

Can't it charge while on the move? It won't be drawing maximum power when coasting at speed.

I think the argument was it would have an almost flat battery after going from the WCML to Barrow and back and it wouldn't fully recharge while running to Manchester Airport and back, so would need some recharging time at the Airport where it could recharge faster than on the move.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Still, Northern have taken the cheapo, short-sighted option, so it will remain a traditional DMU for the foreseeable future.

 

[Haydn1971]

Still, Northern have taken the cheapo, short-sighted option, so it will remain a traditional DMU for the foreseeable future.

Rightly so in my mind, we will need DMU's for a long time into the future - until such time battery power has been proven in commercial service, there isn't another reasonable option for non-wired routes.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Rightly so in my mind, we will need DMU's for a long time into the future - until such time battery power has been proven in commercial service, there isn't another reasonable option for non-wired routes.

I was referring more to their having selected pure DMU over the diesel bi-mode option that TPE seem more sensibly taking. Though, that said, the need for InterCity bi-modes will reduce over time, while there are branch lines that are never likely to be wired - it's DMU or closure.