Is HeX included in GWR (as they are the actual operator)?
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New DfT rail usage figures, big increase
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TOCs that are over proportionally reliant on commuter traffic will inevitably be suffering more than those where leisure and long-distance travel makes more of a contribution. Maybe the question is why GTR isn’t in the mix as well.
ChiefPlanner
Established Member
One size clearly does not fit all. Each operator clearly has individual economic , social and geographical features in it's served hinterland. Deep analysis is needed.
No. It is shown separately in the base data, as is Hull Trains for example
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There will be some variation from quarter to quarter alongside other factors. Split ticketing will increase journey count for the same use, estimated at 5% in last release (an increase from 4% in previous year) and would be far lower in 2018/2019 or 2019/2020. Some services have moved between operators over the period and travel patterns will have changed. Commuter operations may have a slight shift to longer distance if shorter distance commuters drop more days per week than the long distance who may have already worked from home a bit before.
These figures while the best publicly available have large limitations. ORR works them out and provides their methodology, it includes all empty stock movements so locked out vehicles would count. LNER reduced vehicle km is the switch to multiple units from loco hauled which in reality provided more capacity though reduces vehicle kms considerably.
That's on a passenger journey basis compared to passenger train km. While these all are averages which won't highlight the extremes or where demand is suppressed, comparing passenger kms to vehicle kms might be a better comparison. This avoids issues with splits or longer less frequent trains though does mean formation changes altering capacity per vehicle aren't taken into account or poorer utilisation of available capacity. Neither will paint a comprehensive picture as plenty of available capacity will be unused diluting where points where there isn't sufficient capacity.
The table below is 2024/2025 compared to the maximum of 2018/2019 and 2019/2020 for each column as some operators had bad patches in 2018. Fewer operators have passenger km percentages exceeding vehicle kms and several of remaining gaps are far smaller.
| TOC | Passenger kms | Vehicle kms | Train kms | Passenger journeys |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Avanti West Coast | 86.1% | 87.5% | 84.8% | 88.4% |
c2c | 70.5% | 94.6% | 92.3% | 75.9% |
Caledonian Sleeper | 95.4% | 95.1% | 99.9% | 94.2% |
Chiltern Railways | 73.7% | 74.9% | 72.8% | 78.1% |
CrossCountry | 88.1% | 84.7% | 75.9% | 93.0% |
East Midlands Railway | 104.2% | 103.7% | 108.7% | 117.9% |
Elizabeth line | 337.3% | 307.8% | 238.5% | 437.5% |
Govia Thameslink Railway | 86.5% | 86.2% | 85.8% | 85.4% |
Great Western Railway | 103.5% | 97.6% | 103.7% | 89.0% |
Greater Anglia | 92.0% | 103.7% | 96.3% | 96.3% |
London North Eastern Railway | 106.0% | 81.9% | 100.4% | 119.5% |
London Overground | 96.9% | 117.1% | 105.9% | 95.9% |
Merseyrail | 97.5% | 115.0% | 96.5% | 97.0% |
Northern Trains | 93.4% | 94.0% | 90.4% | 85.0% |
ScotRail | 88.3% | 94.0% | 86.5% | 86.6% |
South Western Railway | 81.0% | 85.7% | 89.8% | 76.7% |
Southeastern | 80.5% | 94.4% | 90.4% | 75.3% |
TfW Rail | 97.2% | 122.7% | 107.3% | 93.6% |
TransPennine Express | 101.2% | 120.7% | 93.0% | 94.1% |
West Midlands Trains | 89.3% | 101.2% | 87.2% | 85.1% |
Total | 95.4% | 96.3% | 93.8% | 98.6% |
dk1
Veteran Member
Touching distance.
In this regard GA is a very reliable operator with good capacity and word has probably spread on this so it has been able to balance any decline in commuting with better leisure travel. I don’t watch much TV but it’s one of the only TOCs I see doing national advertising which normally emphasises confidence in the service long-term.
GTR was also in awful industrial action 2016-2018 and a 2018 timetable fiasco which has steadied out over the last few years.
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I didn't include open access operators.
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Thanks
A few comments to make.
GWR & TPE passenger km's are over 100%, the former isn't a surprise as they lost a lot of services carry a lot of passengers to the Elizabeth Line, however have clearly seen people use their longer distance services more.
The majority of TOC's are closer to the peak when you look at passenger km's vs passenger numbers.
XC still has a noticeable gap between services provided and passenger use, with EMR also looking like they could do with more, although the two which look like they really need more capacity are GWR and LNER.
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victormildrew
On Moderation
What is kms please?.
kilometres
Snow1964
Established Member
If you compare the first and last columns, it is clear that for some operators the average distance travelled has gone up.
GWR average journey about 15% longer, Northern about 8% longer, TPE about 7% longer. (The complete opposite of idea that people buy short tickets to get through barriers)
Taking biggest of these (GWR), they would have lost some Paddington local trains to Elizabeth line, so that suggests their 103.5% passenger km means they are almost certainly higher than pre Covid peak in other areas. I don't know exact proportion of their kilometres that got taken over by Elizabeth line, but must be 1-2%, so means running nearer 105% of pre covid
Sticking with GWR as an example, train km 103.7% is more than train km 97.6%, so on average they have cut train length by over 6%. As their fleet is virtually all fixed formation units, couldn't have taken coaches out, so must be running less units in multiple. And in practice that is what has happened, some 2x5 car IETs reduced to single units, 4&5car DMUs on services to Portsmouth reduced to single 3car units etc.
These days all operators publish performance figures, and these are GWRs latest
0.17% shortformed, so the 6.1% cut in train length is not short forming, it is is a timetabled cut of around 6% (even though passenger km is around 105% of pre covid). GWR cut the HST fleet (and a turbo, and some 387s), and gained not a lot (until they put 175s into service) in last 6 years.
What it does seem to flag up, is that although the statistics come out every 3 months, but reaction time to changing passenger numbers is an eternity in comparison. The industry doesn't seem to have the staff numbers or ability to hire in extra rolling stock at 3 months notice to react. It collects the data and isn able to react to them. Even looking at 6 year movement as we are doing now shows they haven't got anywhere near synchronising the train km to passenger flows.
GA recovery is because they have significantly increased capacity through the new fleet, and significantly increased the quality if the journey and reliability too. Their off peak numbers are up as a result. Their peak is still well down.
GTR - as others have said 2018/19 was a difficult year for them. Other factors are that it includes the full effect of the transfer of many Rainham, Orpington and Sevenoaks metro passengers from Southeastern, and the Elizabeth line is driving a lot of new trips via Thamselink at Farringdon that would otherwise have been made by tube (or not at all).
Note also Chiltern are a long way off recovering.
True - but every HST stood down removed two vehicles with a passenger capacity of 0 each.
philosopher
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Chiltern, as they serve very wealthy parts of the London commuter belt, will have a very high proportion of office based commuters so will have been particularly impacted by the shift to home working.
I wonder why C2C figures are so low as I would have thought they have would have a lower proportion of home working commuters than Chiltern and SWR. Perhaps it is due to some of C2C’s passengers shifting to Greater Anglia.
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And Chiltern haven't tried (been allowed to try?) to stay particularly competitive on time with GWR and Avanti post-Covid.
From here at the City and Canary Wharf, C2C previously carried large loads of what you might call 'support staff' commuters, from Southend, Basildon, etc. Secretaries (Essex Girls
) especially, catering and cafe staff, all of that, these are job positions, unable to work from home, which have reduced days or been eliminated completely. Not everyone at Canary Wharf was an international share trader.One thing that has quite disappeared at the offices I know is Season Ticket Loans for lower paid staff. For those unfamiliar this is a longstanding means, pretty much confined to London, of assisting with commuting costs, where annual season tickets were typically about 9 to 10 times the cost of monthly. Employers would make the loan and recover the cost in 12 instalments over the year, and the employee would thus make a saving. All tax free. For organisations like the major banks it was a considerable capital tie up, and for the ralway a cash flow benefit. Such season ticket passengers, quite a proportion on the likes of C2C, were unable to have usage counted accurately, so were just estimated, and I was always dubious about the algorithm.
Iskra
Established Member
There’s little benefit to an annual season ticket though. The cost saving compared to just buying weekly season tickets is negligible when you deduct your annual leave entitlement from it, when you won’t be using it anyway.From here at the City and Canary Wharf, C2C previously carried large loads of what you might call 'support staff' commuters, from Southend, Basildon, etc. Secretaries (Essex Girls
One thing that has quite disappeared at the offices I know is Season Ticket Loans for lower paid staff. For those unfamiliar this is a longstanding means, pretty much confined to London, of assisting with commuting costs, where annual season tickets were typically about 10 times the cost of monthly. Employers would make the loan and recover the cost in 12 instalments over the year, and the employee would thus make a saving. All tax free. For organisations like the major banks it was a considerable capital tie up, and for the ralway a cash flow benefit. Such season ticket passengers, quite a proportion on the likes of C2C, were unable to have usage counted accurately, so were just estimated, and I was always dubious about the algorithm.
That's all taken into account in the factor over monthly that's charged. Trying to synchronise annual leave with monthly tickets to avoid wastage is a real challenge! Maybe some from the commercial side here can comment.
So from the employer's point of view an additional cost-effectively interest foregone-due to geographical location?
Yes there’s something in that. Quite a lot of research has been done to ascertain how often (and when) people with season tickets travel. There is no doubt that the number of passenger journeys was overstated on annual seasons, and this is feeding through in terms or reduced numbers on the lines that had high annual season sales. Such as c2c.
Adrian1980uk
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Judging by peak services leaving Liverpool Street Thursday there isn't much capacity to increase commuters to Cambridge/Colchester/Ipswich/Norwich but that's only one evening between 6 and 6:30.
Acknowledging that they have similarities and differences from the other TOCs, would it be possible to include them for completeness?
Along with office rental cost and all the rest. But there's a reason why international businesses don't have their European head office in Blaenau Ffestiniog!
dk1
Veteran Member
I worked the 18:00 down Norwich on Friday and considering that’s the quietest commuting day and it’s still a ‘peak’ service, we left Liverpool Street with a very healthy load indeed.
This is a key reason why a few sweeteners were provided for the exclusive use of Annual holders. First class at the weekend on TPE for example, and free unlimited travel on Chiltern Railways. And of course the Gold Card in that area. Just some examples.
There are a wide range of variables at play. From past studies, one of the things affecting (both rail and road) is suppressed demand. People divert from the high peak to the shoulders because of the congestion, inability to get a seat, etc. If peak usage drops off these users may then come back to the peak time, and the loading there is as before, it's the shoulder service where you see the drop off.
Bletchleyite
Veteran Member
I suspect journeys getting shorter on average is because of the increase in splitting. When it comes to South East TOCs almost all the journeys are to London and back and that is not going to change. But because of splitting both of the ways I do that now involves a larger number of tickets than before.
Iskra
Established Member
This is a good point.
Yes. But I worked with a company that moved its back office operations from South East London to the Isle of Bute!
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