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More Delay for HS2, and how should we proceed?

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Arkeeos

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No, it doesn't really. It needs to do what HS2 is for - to remove fast services from congested regional lines in order to allow more frequent and longer fast services, to make them more reliable and to allow enhancement of local services.

125-140mph is a considerable speed gain anyway, no regional line in the North has a linespeed above 100mph and plenty are slower.
Right but it still needs to be faster than just taking the northern Liverpool Manchester line, using the fiddlers ferry line, then going into Stockport and Piccadilly is circuitous. with the original proposals they went into the hs2 Manchester tunnel which was very fast, but hs2 no longer exists.
 
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Nicholas Lewis

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Don't suppose he's put any time frame on Euston being completed? Or who he thinks will step forward to manage the construction now that HS2 Ltd are out of the frame.
Doesnt materially matter currently what we now have is far more sensible spread of improvements across a broader section of the populous and if rail travel somehow bounces back beyond the current plateau then thats time to deal with reopening phase 2 again.
 

JamesT

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Right but it still needs to be faster than just taking the northern Liverpool Manchester line, using the fiddlers ferry line, then going into Stockport and Piccadilly is circuitous. with the original proposals they went into the hs2 Manchester tunnel which was very fast, but hs2 no longer exists.
https://www.railfuture.org.uk/article1879-Liverpool-and-Manchester gives some distances and times for the routes when HS2 was still on. To hit the 26 minute target you would need faster than 125mph, but if that was relaxed slightly then a conventional rail line would do. If you're wanting to go to Piccadilly, isn't a line that goes there going to be quicker than one that goes to Victoria?
 

Verulamius

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Why is Phase 2A being cancelled? I thought that this was required because the Hansacre connection to the WCML cause problems with capacity and thus Crewe was better?
 

HSTEd

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Why is Phase 2A being cancelled? I thought that this was required because the Hansacre connection to the WCML cause problems with capacity and thus Crewe was better?
Because the capacity arguments no longer matter.

Sunak wants the scheme gone and not consuming additional money. The cheapest scheme in cash terms uses Handsacre so Crewe goes out the window.

I expect, if not for the rear guard action by various government or Conservative figures, Euston and Handsacre would have gone too.
 

Dan G

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Shapps on Today programme seems to be confirming that Handsacre will be built, but is also talking about in-cab moving block signalling for the WCML.

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Given that phase 2 is about £35bn in 2019 money after £45-50bn for phase 1, but the BCR is much higher for phase 2, it does all seem extremely short-sighted.

If Starmer has an iota of political sense he'll kick the ball into this open goal.
I'm sure most know this but this a good account of how well moving block for the west coast went last time round

 

London Trains

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Why on earth do people still want 400m trains?

Given HS2 is effectively scrapped north of Handsacre, the only services that can use 400m units are the Birmingham services, everything else will be 200m. It would make so much more sense to use 300m units (12 coaches x 25m) which would be able to run on classic lines, with short platform extensions at major stations (an 11 car Pendolino is 265m) and SDO at smaller stations, and would provide extra capacity to the north, unlike using 200m units which are much shorter than the existing Pendolinos.

Capacity will not be an issue as the line can take 18tph, so services to Birmingham and Manchester can easily be increased to 4tph with 300m units (for Manchester, 2tph via Stoke and 2tph via Crewe) which would provide the exact same capacity as 3tph using 400m units (1200m of train per hour),

Reducing platform length to 300m should also massively simplify the stations, specifically Euston, which I would redesign to be a simple, single floor "classic" terminus with a concourse in front of the buffer stops.
 

The Planner

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Capacity will not be an issue as the line can take 18tph, so services to Birmingham and Manchester can easily be increased to 4tph with 300m units (for Manchester, 2tph via Stoke and 2tph via Crewe) which would provide the exact same capacity as 3tph using 400m units (1200m of train per hour),

Not with the reduced 6 platforms at Euston it won't.
 

The Ham

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Why on earth do people still want 400m trains?

Given HS2 is effectively scrapped north of Handsacre, the only services that can use 400m units are the Birmingham services, everything else will be 200m. It would make so much more sense to use 300m units (12 coaches x 25m) which would be able to run on classic lines, with short platform extensions at major stations (an 11 car Pendolino is 265m) and SDO at smaller stations, and would provide extra capacity to the north, unlike using 200m units which are much shorter than the existing Pendolinos.

Capacity will not be an issue as the line can take 18tph, so services to Birmingham and Manchester can easily be increased to 4tph with 300m units (for Manchester, 2tph via Stoke and 2tph via Crewe) which would provide the exact same capacity as 3tph using 400m units (1200m of train per hour),

Reducing platform length to 300m should also massively simplify the stations, specifically Euston, which I would redesign to be a simple, single floor "classic" terminus with a concourse in front of the buffer stops.

The reason for 400m is that anything shorter could end up costing more if any of the northern sections come forwards.

Also, you only need to look at GWR or LNER where is you pair up two 5 coach units you only get the same capacity as a single 9 coach unit, so whilst you could have the same length of train you wouldn't have the same capacity.

Finally, you're better off (as once you're are 3tph, as increasing the frequency to 4tph isn't necessarily that beneficial for an intercity service) in terms of cost of running the services it's cheaper to run full length trains.

Yes, those services which leave HS2 infrastructure for other routes should be ~300m, but not those which don't.
 

London Trains

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Yes, those services which leave HS2 infrastructure for other routes should be ~300m, but not those which don't.
But everything is going to leave HS2 infrastructure apart from London to Birmingham services, so why waste money on 400m trains and platforms which will only be used on the 3tph to Birmingham, and will actually disadvantage everywhere else by having to run shorter trains than the existing Pendolinos?
 

Trainbike46

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But everything is going to leave HS2 infrastructure apart from London to Birmingham services, so why waste money on 400m trains and platforms which will only be used on the 3tph to Birmingham, and will actually disadvantage everywhere else by having to run shorter trains than the existing Pendolinos?
It's because there's a not insignificant chance that a future government realises this cancellation was a bad idea and decides to build further sections. There's loads of examples of infrastructure projects that got part-cancelled and then later extended back to something resembling the original plan.
 

Arkeeos

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It's because there's a not insignificant chance that a future government realises this cancellation was a bad idea and decides to build further sections. There's loads of examples of infrastructure projects that got part-cancelled and then later extended back to something resembling the original plan.
HS2 or something like it is built by 2070, we are just doing it the moronic way, but that's still better than not doing it.
 

Meerkat

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It's because there's a not insignificant chance that a future government realises this cancellation was a bad idea and decides to build further sections. There's loads of examples of infrastructure projects that got part-cancelled and then later extended back to something resembling the original plan.
By the next election 2a/2b and the Eastern line will have been unsafeguarded and the land sold off.
That and a 6 platform Euston means HS2 beyond Handsacre is properly dead.
 

The Ham

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It's because there's a not insignificant chance that a future government realises this cancellation was a bad idea and decides to build further sections. There's loads of examples of infrastructure projects that got part-cancelled and then later extended back to something resembling the original plan.

To put the fall in passenger numbers into perspective between 2009 and 2024 it was expected that passenger numbers would grow at 2.5% a year, that means for every 100 in 2009 there would be 135 in 2024.

In 2019 there were 170, over the last 3 months the 30 day rolling average of rail use is about 80% of the 2019 figures (rarely 78% but sometimes at high as 85%), that works out at 136!

Even though we've witnessed a 20% fall in rail use (in part due to get trains running and strikes still being ongoing) we're probably a little ahead of where we should be based on the HS2 growth model.

If the government sorted out the strikes and started to reinstate more services, then there's a fair chance we could see rail use pull ahead further.

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By the next election 2a/2b and the Eastern line will have been unsafeguarded and the land sold off.
That and a 6 platform Euston means HS2 beyond Handsacre is properly dead.

See comment above about rail usage.

If rail use picks up, which isn't unlikely, then it's likely that there'll be a lot of anger when a new scheme in London is needed to cater for the extra trains.

Hopefully there's an election soon enough that allows the elected government to safeguard everything needed to build HS2 in full (or enough is not hamstrung) before too much is lost.
 

Arkeeos

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Hopefully there's an election soon enough that allows the elected government to safeguard everything needed to build HS2 in full (or enough is not hamstrung) before too much is lost.
Labour should do something, they should write a publicised message to Sunak asking him to atleast leave hs2 in a buildable position, if they decline they are openly going scorched earth and labour would likely have the support to threaten prospective purchasers. They control Camden, they control the planning decisions in Camden, they can refuse to consider developing the plot.
 

Danfilm007

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Labour should do something, they should write a publicised message to Sunak asking him to atleast leave hs2 in a buildable position, if they decline they are openly going scorched earth and labour would likely have the support to threaten prospective purchasers. They control Camden, they control the planning decisions in Camden, they can refuse to consider developing the plot.
If HS2 is a national scheme, I can't recall the specific wording but it wouldn't be classed as a local scheme but a nationally important one so councils can't really do anything about it, aside from petition and work with stakeholders
 

Arkeeos

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If HS2 is a national scheme, I can't recall the specific wording but it wouldn't be classed as a local scheme but a nationally important one so councils can't really do anything about it, aside from petition and work with stakeholders
HS2 requires planning permission from all the places it goes through I believe, one of the many faults of the planning system. But if they want to change the development at Euston to include more buildings and less platforms, they would surely require planning permission for that at least. Camden council can endlessly delay the decision at Euston, buying time for Labour to get in.
 

Danfilm007

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HS2 requires planning permission from all the places it goes through I believe, one of the many faults of the planning system. But if they want to change the development at Euston to include more buildings and less platforms, they would surely require planning permission for that at least. Camden council can endlessly delay the decision at Euston, buying time for Labour to get in.
I'm not sure that is true though - because I believe it's an NSIP (nationally significant infrastructure project), local government are a stakeholder and work/plan within their local plans and needs but don't have legal authority to refuse something on their own - they can say no until blue in the face but it is central govt decision. If I am wrong by the way someone please correct me, I am newish to local govt planning!..

The point on buildings though is interesting - that would presumably require planning permission but given the value of it it may go straight to SoS rather than local planners. Plus, I highly doubt they'd say no to hundreds of millions or even billions in section 106 and CIL money...

"NSIPs don't require Planning Permission – they require Development Consent. Applications for Development Consent are decided by the Secretary of State; the elected minster with responsibility for the area of policy. They are administered by the Planning Inspectorate, and the process is set out in the Planning Act 2008." From an overview doc.
 

Arkeeos

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I'm not sure that is true though - because I believe it's an NSIP (nationally significant infrastructure project), local government are a stakeholder and work/plan within their local plans and needs but don't have legal authority to refuse something on their own - they can say no until blue in the face but it is central govt decision. If I am wrong by the way someone please correct me, I am newish to local govt planning!..

The point on buildings though is interesting - that would presumably require planning permission but given the value of it it may go straight to SoS rather than local planners. Plus, I highly doubt they'd say no to hundreds of millions or even billions in section 106 and CIL money...

"NSIPs don't require Planning Permission – they require Development Consent. Applications for Development Consent are decided by the Secretary of State; the elected minster with responsibility for the area of policy. They are administered by the Planning Inspectorate, and the process is set out in the Planning Act 2008." From an overview doc.
Im not 100% sure but I think they must need some form of local approval, or at least local approval has the ability to delay them, because here: https://assets.publishing.service.g...nning_Regime_-_Heritage_Subgroup_Mar_2016.pdf "The Nominated Undertaker building HS2 will have to obtain a range of approvals from local authorities"
 

Danfilm007

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Im not 100% sure but I think they must need some form of local approval, or at least local approval has the ability to delay them, because here: https://assets.publishing.service.g...nning_Regime_-_Heritage_Subgroup_Mar_2016.pdf "The Nominated Undertaker building HS2 will have to obtain a range of approvals from local authorities"
Some of this process has been conducted through Bill Committee and Parliamentary processes, you can get assurances as part of the bill for X, Y, Z through legislation rather than just doing it in planning. For example if you look at the recent AP2 docs it shows who has sought these assurances at this stage. Locally, you do work with the HS2 teams and Local Authorities on stuff like traffic plans so you are right but it's not "technically" planning permission
 

Arkeeos

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Some of this process has been conducted through Bill Committee and Parliamentary processes, you can get assurances as part of the bill for X, Y, Z through legislation rather than just doing it in planning. For example if you look at the recent AP2 docs it shows who has sought these assurances at this stage. Locally, you do work with the HS2 teams and Local Authorities on stuff like traffic plans so you are right but it's not "technically" planning permission
That makes sense, thanks
 

Meerkat

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Labour should do something, they should write a publicised message to Sunak asking him to atleast leave hs2 in a buildable position, if they decline they are openly going scorched earth and labour would likely have the support to threaten prospective purchasers. They control Camden, they control the planning decisions in Camden, they can refuse to consider developing the plot.
Leaving it in a buildable position means holding a huge amount of land and not getting the savings from selling it.
 

HSTEd

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"NSIPs don't require Planning Permission – they require Development Consent. Applications for Development Consent are decided by the Secretary of State; the elected minster with responsibility for the area of policy. They are administered by the Planning Inspectorate, and the process is set out in the Planning Act 2008." From an overview doc.
I don't even think they require that, ultimately.

HS2 is authorised by direct Parliamentary Authority, local government cannot withstand that in any way. If the Government want this done, it will be done.

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But everything is going to leave HS2 infrastructure apart from London to Birmingham services, so why waste money on 400m trains and platforms which will only be used on the 3tph to Birmingham, and will actually disadvantage everywhere else by having to run shorter trains than the existing Pendolinos?

Reducing platform length to 300m should also massively simplify the stations, specifically Euston, which I would redesign to be a simple, single floor "classic" terminus with a concourse in front of the buffer stops.
Unfortunately that is an eternal reduction of 25% in capacity that essentially can never be undone,

We can train plan our way around fewer platforms, we can't train plan a train into a platform that is too short for it.

Additionally, no particular reason that units have to be 200m long for multiple working.
In Japan, for example, they operate 255m and 145m trains in multiple. I can see several cases where a 250+150m combination might be useful in the forseable future, even if no high speed rail beyond Handsacre ever happens.

Making the platform a hundred metres shorter won't meaningfully simplify the design of the station at the end of the day.
End loading platforms are going to pay merry hell with capacity in any case, not exactly what you need in such a heavily despecced station. We will need to get trains unloaded, reloaded and moving again in minutes.

I very much doubt you will save much money this way and you can easily cripple HS2 forever.

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By the next election 2a/2b and the Eastern line will have been unsafeguarded and the land sold off.
The land being sold off is not that big a roadblock, given that the powers to seize it don't sunset until 2026.
Government can always just use the same act of parliament to obtain them a second time if necessary.

Or if that is somehow impossible, just grant themselves the power to do so using a one clause bill.
That and a 6 platform Euston means HS2 beyond Handsacre is properly dead.
6 platform station doesn't kill 18tph.
The train planners won't like it (and it will require various compromises), but it is possible to timetable 18 trains into six platforms.

Fenchurch Street scheduled 20 into 4!
Charing Cross does it into 6 platforms, off-peak.
 
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The Ham

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I don't even think they require that, ultimately.

HS2 is authorised by direct Parliamentary Authority, local government cannot withstand that in any way. If the Government want this done, it will be done.

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Unfortunately that is an eternal reduction of 25% in capacity that essentially can never be undone,

We can train plan our way around fewer platforms, we can't train plan a train into a platform that is too short for it.

Additionally, no particular reason that units have to be 200m long for multiple working.
In Japan, for example, they operate 255m and 145m trains in multiple. I can see several cases where a 250+150m combination might be useful in the forseable future, even if no high speed rail beyond Handsacre ever happens.

Making the platform a hundred metres shorter won't meaningfully simplify the design of the station at the end of the day.
End loading platforms are going to pay merry hell with capacity in any case, not exactly what you need in such a heavily despecced station. We will need to get trains unloaded, reloaded and moving again in minutes.

I very much doubt you will save much money this way and you can easily cripple HS2 forever.

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The land being sold off is not that big a roadblock, given that the powers to seize it don't sunset until 2026.
Government can always just use the same act of parliament to obtain them a second time if necessary.

Or if that is somehow impossible, just grant themselves the power to do so using a one clause bill.

6 platform station doesn't kill 18tph.
The train planners won't like it (and it will require various compromises), but it is possible to timetable 18 trains into six platforms.

Fenchurch Street scheduled 20 into 4!
Charing Cross does it into 6 platforms, off-peak.

Two points, I'm not sure, given what you've said before about previous land owners getting the extra value form their land that there's necessary all that extra money available from the Euston site.

Secondly, even if it was the extra cost/losses from safeguarding a (say) seventh platform makes it a while load easier during times of disruption, so that if future capacity were to increase to need 18tph then there's extra space for it.

We all too often cram in too many trains into what we've already got (see Manchester, Waterloo, etc, etc, etc) and yet when COVID happened we realised just how much more reliable train services were without being so crammed in. It appears that we are doomed to repeat this.
 

The Planner

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6 platform station doesn't kill 18tph.
The train planners won't like it (and it will require various compromises), but it is possible to timetable 18 trains into six platforms.

Fenchurch Street scheduled 20 into 4!
Charing Cross does it into 6 platforms, off-peak.
You keep saying this, but the simple fact is it does. The compromises are performance. It isnt a commuter network that runs trains to Southend at its extremities.
 

Richardr

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Fenchurch Street also has the advantage that virtually all the passenger flow is in one direction.
 

Trainbike46

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By the next election 2a/2b and the Eastern line will have been unsafeguarded and the land sold off.
That and a 6 platform Euston means HS2 beyond Handsacre is properly dead.
Well, if that happens there is no reason a future government couldn't choose to undo it. It would of course be much more expensive than not cancelling the project, but as I said history is full of examples of projects being cancelled and uncancelled repeatedly, leading to escalating costs

Hopefully there's an election soon enough that allows the elected government to safeguard everything needed to build HS2 in full (or enough is not hamstrung) before too much is lost.
I hope so too!

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If HS2 is a national scheme, I can't recall the specific wording but it wouldn't be classed as a local scheme but a nationally important one so councils can't really do anything about it, aside from petition and work with stakeholders
The HS2 works themselves may not require planning permission, but anything that may get build on land sold of would require it. So the council could prevent development that would be in the way of a future expansion if the government actually sells of land next to the future Euston
Genuinely curious, any examples?
MML electrification is one. It was proposed to be electrified in the 70s, and electrification to Bedford was finished in 1983. The rest was delayed, then privatisation hit. Then it was going to be electrified under the Electric spine project, and it was electrified to Corby. Then the electric spine faded into dead, then it got reinstated, and it is currently under construction at least partially beyond kettering
 
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Meerkat

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The HS2 works themselves may not require planning permission, but anything that may get build on land sold of would require it. So the council could prevent development that would be in the way of a future expansion if the government actually sells of land next to the future Euston
They can only do things that aren’t going to bankrupt them in losing court cases.
How legally sustainable would it be for a local council to claim safeguarding for a national project the national government didn’t want?
 
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