Missing a train due to a 'false' delay

[AlterEgo]

It's just poor programming of an algorithm. All it would take is an extra few lines of code built into the system to make this problem history.

How would an algorithm know that a driver will spontaneously agree to work, or a set for rolling over will magically become available at a hub station?

 

[robbeech]

I think one thing that has been identified here is there is a significant difference in scenario here if the train is passing through a station or this is a terminating train and return working.

The train outlined in the original post and many other examples given are trains that arrive at a destination, have a set turn around time and then depart again, often down the route they just travelled. If a train is heavily delayed it’s quite possible to replace it with another to catch up time as we have discussed.

On the other hand it’s much more difficult to do this with a non terminating train. Although it does sometimes happen with severe delays.

Just after Christmas I travelled up to Edinburgh using a combination of advances. I’d worked it out to get around 45 minutes in Newcastle, enough time for a quick walk and a drink. My TPE Service was on time but the vtec Service that I was connecting onto was already over an hour late at Peterborough. Now it wasn’t going to catch up an hour so I was fairly confident I’d have a little extra time in Newcastle but to be extra sure I asked a member of staff. They said there was lots of disruption in that area so feel free to have a wander round as it certainly wasn’t going to get any earlier.
My only concern was they’d cancel a south bound service at ncl and send it back up as my service but that was a risk I was willing to take. The service got later and later and I got back to the station about half an hour before it was now due. It left about 110L.

I think the risk of doing that in that situation is quite low but there is still a risk. That said I’m fairly confident I could have just boarded the next service on that ocassion.

 

[306024]

There isn't an algorithm yet... but it can certainly be done. Humans are extremely predictable so all it would take is data from the last few thousand times this problem has happened. Assuming you could get the data easily it would only take a couple of days to do the coding.

“The last few thousand times this problem has occurred”. Even if a problem is identical, e.g. x points have failed, the time of day it occurs and other circumstances can cause totally different outcomes.

Humans are not at all predictable, quite the opposite. No two controllers will deal with a given set of circumstances identically. Impossible to do so when you are relying on communication with other humans.

 

[Tomnick]

I think one thing that has been identified here is there is a significant difference in scenario here if the train is passing through a station or this is a terminating train and return working.

The train outlined in the original post and many other examples given are trains that arrive at a destination, have a set turn around time and then depart again, often down the route they just travelled. If a train is heavily delayed it’s quite possible to replace it with another to catch up time as we have discussed.

On the other hand it’s much more difficult to do this with a non terminating train. Although it does sometimes happen with severe delays.

In the latter case, though, Control will normally have to put a new schedule in for the train that's 'restarting' the service (because the delayed train is still running to and reporting against its original schedule). I don't know exactly how that feeds down to the information systems, but I've certainly seen it displayed as an additional service (and shown as on time) with the original either cancelled (which it usually is, once it gets to the station where it's been restarted from) or still showing with its delay as though it's working through. Either way, at least the information's there that it'll be going forward right-time. The only risk is that they only manage to find a unit and/or crew at the last minute for a right-time restart and that intended passengers have wandered off by then to find something to do for half an hour.

 

[robbeech]

Yes. Good on the platform but not good if you’re relying on external information such as RTT as sometimes this doesn’t translate well. This of course goes some way to prove the general idea on this thread.

 

[Geeves]

There was a problem with the Darwin system yesterday so that even though trust an c c l d b
was showing the correct information the screens were the not updating. Happened twice with two Preston - York services which terminated at Bradford an restarted at Leeds respectively. Even control could not clear it. The wonders of technology.

 

[Baxenden Bank]

So how long should you wait on a platform, awaiting a delayed train?
Assuming that you are waiting at an unstaffed station with no facilities other than a basic shelter and a CIS screen showing 30 minutes late or merely 'delayed'. It is winter, it is cold and snowy. You need a cup of tea, to get warm, or to use the toilet. If the train had been on time all three needs may have been met. But the train hasn't arrived.

Is it not reasonable to go to the Tesco across the road where you can do all three and get back in good time for a slight change to the forecast delay (30 late to 25 late), rather than a dramatic change in the delay (30 late to on time)?

In the old days, before CIS or long-line PA (never mind smart phones and RTT), you would just have to stand there and wait (but perhaps there was a ticket office or a signalman you could bother). But society has moved on somewhat and people expect more accurate information nowadays.

 

[221129]

Yes. Good on the platform but not good if you’re relying on external information such as RTT as sometimes this doesn’t translate well. This of course goes some way to prove the general idea on this thread.

If you're relying on external information then that is on you.

 

[notlob.divad]

Passengers have an obligation to get to the station for the booked departure time, and if common sense applies, a little before. Leaving it to the last minute like that would more than likely get no sympathy from station staff as you weren't there for the booked departure, and there's nothing the railway can do - that is, if you're starting your journey. Of course if you miss your train because of previous delays that's a whole new ball park...

How about if a passenger sees a delay-chooses to retire to the station pub and misses the train whilst still on station premises due to the train leaving ewrlier than advertised...?

Or the toilet?

Situation: you really really need the toilet, you are on the platform, in time for the scheduled departure and will hold on until you are on the train. Train comes up as delayed by 5/10/15 minutes. Rather than wait you run to the station toilet. Train arrives, departure time corrected, and leaves on time/1 minute late whilst you are still making use of the facilities.

Whilst I appreciate it is an estimate and thus not accurate, and that the railway will and should do everything it can to recover time. If you are going to show estimated times, they have to be as accurate as possible. If recovery time is included in the schedule, then it surely cannot be difficult to only show delays once they are greater than the recovery time, and take off the recovery time from any delay that is shown.

 

[al78]

Or the toilet?

Situation: you really really need the toilet, you are on the platform, in time for the scheduled departure and will hold on until you are on the train. Train comes up as delayed by 5/10/15 minutes. Rather than wait you run to the station toilet. Train arrives, departure time corrected, and leaves on time/1 minute late whilst you are still making use of the facilities.

Whilst I appreciate it is an estimate and thus not accurate, and that the railway will and should do everything it can to recover time. If you are going to show estimated times, they have to be as accurate as possible. If recovery time is included in the schedule, then it surely cannot be difficult to only show delays once they are greater than the recovery time, and take off the recovery time from any delay that is shown.

If I really really needed the toilet whilst waiting for a train, I would have moderately needed the toilet shortly before travelling to the station, thus I would relieve myself before setting off. In the situation you describe it is bad luck, the best a passenger can do is minimise the need to depart from the platform once they arrive, just in case. If a 30 minute delay is anticipated due to a situation, then circumstances change so that the delay is reduced by ten minutes, you can't expect the train driver to wait 10 minutes extra at every station just in case someone is using the station toilet.

 

[moliones]

Today at Bridlington, I was waiting for the 17.46 to Sheffield. Displays said it was expected 18.03. This service is formed from a service arriving from Hull (Or perhaps further, but in that direction). At about 17.42, there was an announcement apologising for the late service, and informing everyone of the expected departure time. There were no further announcements, as the train then arrived and departed on time. From where I was sitting I could not see the train, but I did notice the other waiting passengers heading to the platform.

 

[185143]

If I really really needed the toilet whilst waiting for a train, I would have moderately needed the toilet shortly before travelling to the station, thus I would relieve myself before setting off. In the situation you describe it is bad luck, the best a passenger can do is minimise the need to depart from the platform once they arrive, just in case. If a 30 minute delay is anticipated due to a situation, then circumstances change so that the delay is reduced by ten minutes, you can't expect the train driver to wait 10 minutes extra at every station just in case someone is using the station toilet.

Not necessarily. Suppose a passenger has just travelled from Bache to Southport and is changing onto the Wigan train at Southport.

No facilities at Bache, no toilet on the 40 minute journey to Liverpool, a fairly tight connection, no toilet on the 40 minute journey to Southport either...

 

[GW43125]

I had a similar issue one morning. There were issues around London and my train was showing as expected to start short around 15 minutes late. I monitored various sources and maps and upon seeing a new unit coming out of the depot, headed to the station and got on the train almost bang on time.

Unfortunately, my friends took the expected 15 minute delay and all missed the train...

Usually of a morning I’ll check the train when I wake up, I know that it can make up two minutes at one point but no more so if for example I see the train is 5 minutes late I know I can go down to the station 3 minutes late but that’s the only exception. If it’s really late I just sit at home and monitor the situation.

 

[sheff1]

As a passenger if I see a time displayed on an official looking board in a station I assume that someone knows what they are doing and that it will be correct,

As I passenger, if I see something displayed on an electronic departure board at a station or hear an auto-announcement, I assume nobody is in control of it and there is every chance it will be incorrect.

This has served me well on many occasions where I have caught trains which have allegedly been "cancelled" or "delayed" but have actually left on time, never mind those occasions when the train in the platform is going somewhere completely different to what is announced or shown on the screen.

The latest was at Manchester Piccadilly only last week - the "delayed" Preston train left on time whilst the screen proclaimed it to be the train to Llandudno. At Oxford Rd a number of passengers wanting the Llandudno train alighted after an announcement from the guard. How many Preston passengers were still standing at Piccadilly is anyone's guess.

 

[Dren Ahmeti]

Had a nice little seat reservation on 1A09 Taunton-Paddington, due Reading 0944, one of the first trains off-peak and a tight connection to make in London.
Woke up to see it pass Bedminster RT on RTT, great, I thought!
Oh how wrong I was!
Due to a multitude of issues (broken down train and points at Bath Spa), left Bristol West Jct 8L, BTM 16L, delays racking up.
I thought it best to stay at home, as I'm only a 5 minute bus/20 minute walk from Reading Station.
Arrived at Bath Spa 29L, made up some time (Class 800 power!), and made it to Reading 26L.
If I had been waiting for the train at Reading, I definitely would've gone for a walk into town to grab a bite to eat!
Eventually arrived at Paddington 26L (even with a slow-down at Heathrow Airport Jct for the Heathrow Express ), where I had to run to the Bakerloo line up to Wembley Central to catch 2M27, a Southern service, which was running early! But that's another story

 

[GW43125]

Most normals; upon seeing the train they wanted at reading inbound was late, would probably just get the next one, given it’s a 25 minute journey and there’s lots of trains.

 

[waynemorrell]

Most normals; upon seeing the train they wanted at reading inbound was late, would probably just get the next one, given it’s a 25 minute journey and there’s lots of trains.

What if they are booked on that specific train?

 

[GW43125]

What if they are booked on that specific train?

No advances between Reading and Paddington AFAIK

 

[221129]

No advances between Reading and Paddington AFAIK

Correct the only problem would be if they had an advance fare from elsewhere and they were connecting at Reading.

 

[GW43125]

Correct the only problem would be if they had an advance fare from elsewhere and they were connecting at Reading.

Aren’t advances generally booked train and a suitable connection though?

 

[Dren Ahmeti]

Most normals; upon seeing the train they wanted at reading inbound was late, would probably just get the next one, given it’s a 25 minute journey and there’s lots of trains.

Could have done, but I wanted to get the Class 800 into Paddington, just to see whether the fabled 21/23 minute run can be achieved; ended up being 27!
Plus it was just out of peak and I had a seat reservation!

 

[GW43125]

Could have done, but I wanted to get the Class 800 into Paddington, just to see whether the fabled 21/23 minute run can be achieved; ended up being 27!
Plus it was just out of peak and I had a seat reservation!

Then again, this is coming from the guy who let two purple HSTs go for a ride on the then new green set

 

[Dren Ahmeti]

Then again, this is coming from the guy who let two purple HSTs go for a ride on the then new green set

I gave up 2 HST’s to sit on an ironing board, the things I do voluntarily sometimes...
Wasn’t guaranteed a seat on the HST’s anyways; they’re usually rammed.

 

[infobleep]

My phone isn't a smartphone, and most passengers waiting at a station for a train are likely to rely on the information displayed there and won't be aware of sites like RTT.

I'm not arguing against my responsibility to be at the station before a train's official departure time. If the board is saying it's expected 15 minutes later I wouldn't assume I've got 14 minutes to do something else. But if it's "expected" to be 28 minutes late then I might think I've got 14 minutes for a drink. Passengers cannot reasonably be expected to know that the computers behind the information being given to them suffer from limitations and cannot be relied on, and if the information isn't reliable there ought to be a scrolling notice advising them that the situation may substantially change and they should remain on the platform, and/or keep a regular eye on the information screens. This could be supplemented by verbal announcements to the same effect.

I had an interesting experience at Basingstoke last summer, waiting for a Cross Country service to Birmingham, It was expected to be 16 minutes late. This gradually increased to 25. Then it arrived just over ten minutes late. I wondered whether a freight train in front of it had been held in Wallers Ash loop to give it a straight run from Winchester. The incident certainly showed that "expected" isn't a time you should rely on, and that occasionally things get better rather than worse.

I generally find if a train is delayed and following other trains it's delay will likely get worse.

The 18:06 Waterloo to Hampton Four4 is a train that picks up a creeping delay on route, due to bit being the busy evening peak. Thus if one wanted to catch that they could allow for a delay and the systems showing the delay time further head would likely be out. So at Clapham Junction train might depart 3 minutes late and it may say it's going be 1 minute late at Surbtion when most likely it will be 5 minutes late leaving there.

If however a Reading to Gatwick Airport train has stops missed out between Reading and Guildford then the expected delay time from Guildford wouod be wrony because the system can't take into account the missed stow allowing the train to run faster and make up time.

 

[infobleep]

Where I do have sympathy is where, as in too many cases, waiting rooms don't have a PA system in them and a passenger waiting in there for a delayed train has not noticed the arrival time has moved back and so misses it.

I was once at Swindon station awaiting the last train to Reading. I was chatting to someone I'd met at a gig. The train pulled in behind me because it had switched platforms. I was facing the platform it should have arrived on.

There was no announcement and I didn't hear it come in at all whilst sat in the waiting room. The train manager refused to reopen the doors when I asked and I spent the night in the station waiting room.

I personally feel a platform alteration announcement should have been made. This was back in 2001 though so things may have improved since then. It wouldn't surprise though if they haven't.

I complained and was given a free first class ticket to anywhere on First Great Western network as a good will gesture. I never did get around to using it but as I didn't live on that network, I'd have had to pay to reach FGW station. Not that I take issue with that but it was probably part of the reason why I never got round to using it.

 

[infobleep]

If I really really needed the toilet whilst waiting for a train, I would have moderately needed the toilet shortly before travelling to the station, thus I would relieve myself before setting off. In the situation you describe it is bad luck, the best a passenger can do is minimise the need to depart from the platform once they arrive, just in case. If a 30 minute delay is anticipated due to a situation, then circumstances change so that the delay is reduced by ten minutes, you can't expect the train driver to wait 10 minutes extra at every station just in case someone is using the station toilet.

I have seen ttains delayed due to allowing passengers to use station facilities when all train loos out of order.

Of course let's assume the person came off a train with no loos and they had a medical condition which meant they might suddenly need the loo and the connecting train just said delayed? This could be a situation at Clapham Junction if coming off a South Western metro train and onto a Victoria grin heading south. Some of the South Western Metro trains have some long travel times from some stations, for example Guildford yo Clapham Junction is 50 minutes if on time and that is the fastest journey during the morning peak rush hour!

 

[Abpj17]

Will they?
I think you will find that most of the public haven't a clue about an internet site that gives running timings and can't be bothered to find it. Certainly before I came onto here I had never heard of it, and I worked on the railway.
And I still don't look at one; can't see the point.

And I suggest some members need to look up the dictionary definitions for "expected" and "estimated".

It depends on the environment. For example, I'd assert that most GTR commuters a) have smartphones and b) have at least one tool for finding out what is going on with the trains.

Information on PIS and from platform staff is often just not available or plain wrong. Smartphone apps/asking questions on twitter provide better information.

 

[tommy2215]

Funny that some people seem to be complaining that train companies try to mitigate delays and think the expected departure time is there by virtue of seers...

 

[xotGD]

Anecdote time: On Friday the infamous 17.26 Leeds - Skipton was shown as 'Delayed'. Checking RTT revealed that the inbound working was running 30 late. A quick set swap, and the 17.26 left on time.

 

[CentralTrainer]

Had one of these last night. Left Euston on the VT just after 7pm on time - but due to an incident around MK - we ended up arriving into Bham New Street 14L

The same service had dwell time of 18 minutes scheduled into it normally before departing onwards to it’s booked destination of Wolverhampton.

Because we still arrived at Birmingham well before the regularly scheduled departure time (thanks to that delay time being a major part of the dwell at Birmingham) - we actually then set off on time.

Checked NRE as we were leaving and it was still showing it as late and would be departing 11 minutes after we actually did.