Kneedown I don't think you are understanding me. I have at no point said I don't think the MML should be electrified, but thats the way you're painting it, unfairly I may add.
5 or 6 long distance diesel departures an hour is a pretty significant amount.
GWML = 10 per hour on the current timetable (4 of which long distance and another 2 HSTs to Oxford) will be electrified on the current plan. A further 4 per hour can be electrified eventually.
Its not an either/or situation. If the MML is to be electrified it will not depend on electrification schemes to Wales and the West Country. NR has proved to the Government that electrification pays for itself over a relatively short period compared to
grand-projets such as HS2, and they just need approval to spend the capital, and confirmation from the Government that they aren't about to throw loads of money up the wall on new diesel trains.
The argument for electrification is so compelling that the MML will be electrified, I feel people are so used to it being put off by politicians that they won't believe it until they see it which is understandable, but thats not the way I see it. All I was trying to say is that I would have chosen to get stuck into the GWML first.
I would turn most of the GWML to electric IEPs, and get some Bi-modes for a few bits including the west country routes. XC only has a few to-be life-expired HSTs which aren't worth jumping on XC electrification for. So instead turn my attention to MML, electrify that, but get it done quite quickly after the GWML so that the 222s can be transferred to XC before the HSTs fall apart, as I don't see the point of purchasing millions of bi-modes, as a few will need to be purchased for the ECML anyway.
By this time I would have done trans-penine from Manchester to Leeds and York via Huddersfield. I would then extend the GWML electrification to the West Country, at least to Plymouth. Fill in the northern end of the MML, and then finish the XC between Bristol and Derby. Then get electric IEPs for XC, and then definitely transfer the by then surplus-to-requirements GWML bi-modes to XC for operations beyond Plymouth and north of the Scottish central belt. XC could then have a mostly electric fleet.
I actually think the MML should ultimately get Pendos released from the WCML by HS2, if they aren't expired themselves by then!