If the tram-trains went ahead and continued to Knutsford, where would that leave Northern? Would they be running services on the same tracks as Metrolink, or would Knutsford become a terminus for a service from Chester? Then nothing would go to Stockport on that line and the Northern service would be isolated from the rest of their network (meaning the Chester to Knutsford line would probably have to become a branch line operated by Arriva Trains Wales from Chester). It's a very weird one that I think is more than just a bad business case. In my eyes, if they ever electrified any of the line, they'd have to do the whole thing through to Chester. Maybe they can extend the Merseyrail service to Altrincham from Chester?
If I'm missing something here that
would make it feasible, let me know.
The whole point of a tram-train is the line
doesn't have to be converted from National Rail to light rail. A tram-train can run on exactly the same line as a Pacer, a Pendolino or a freight train, while a standard Metrolink or Supertram vehicle is not able to do so as it doesn't meet the National Rail crash standards.
One issue with the business case is apparently down to the power method used. There are multiple options:
1. Install AC overheads on National Rail and use dual voltage tram-trains.
2. Install DC overheads on National Rail.
3. Install DC third rail on National Rail and use tram-trains able to run on overheads or third rail.
4. Use tram-trains which can run on diesel and electric.
5. Use diesel only tram-trains.
TfGM have dismissed options 2, 4 and 5. Option 1 is the most expensive option and TfGM's preferred option, hence the very high costs proposed. Option 2 may only be a short-term solution if National Rail want to electrify the route at a later date with AC overheads. Option 3 would mean DC tram-trains and AC trains could run on the same line but Network Rail aren't keen on. It's not clear why TfGM have dismissed option 4 which is the second cheapest option, obviously with option 5 they'd have diesel tram-trains in the city centre which would be something they'd want to avoid.
TfGM have also done a slightly weird analysis of the business case.
Apparently an extension to Knutsford wouldn't benefit any Manchester businesses more than an extension to Hale, which is an unusual conclusion to make. They also wrongly imply there would are no deprived communities served by the line between Hale and Knutsford - what about Longridge which is an overflow Wythenshawe estate?
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No.
I fear the number of people travelling Crewe-Knutsford or Northwich-Runcorn or whatever are far too small to justify such work.
Well a lot of people go in to Knutsford ticket office and ask for a ticket to somewhere like London or Birmingham from Crewe/Wilmslow/Hartford. Although, as these people probably have cars changing from train to bus link to train would probably not entice them to start their journey at a Mid-Cheshire line station instead.
If you introduce a new link from Altrincham to Liverpool, I imagine it would take a while for passenger numbers to pick up. Anyone who commutes to Liverpool already has an alternative way of getting there while people who are looking for a new job wouldn't all get jobs in Liverpool or all get new jobs overnight.