I'm more trying to draw attention to the fact that Metrolink in it's current form is not the only causal factor to the growth on rail services in the Greater Manchester TTWA, if you look at other, non-metrolink corridors these have also shown significant growth, and with the electrification coming, this could be able to show what a good, frequent, electrified service into Picc / Vic can provide in the way of growth, removing the metrolink factor.
If for example, the upgrades of the Bury and Alty lines was carried out and terminated in Victoria and Central respectively, would we see the services as busy as the current metrolink services? This is actually quite likely....
Would we still have been able to see the Eccles Line, East Manchester Line and the CC route to Victoria? Yes, proberbly. But Victoria would be a terminus where you'd change to Heavy Rail.
So again; is Metrolink the only causal factor in GMTTWA's rail growth, almost cetrainly not, is a light rail system the only way one could have seen this level of growth, also unlikely.
Would we have a significantly higher level of flexibility to allow growth on non-metrolink corridors if it had been built as an improvment of heavy rail routes into Manchester, allowing for additional through services on all lines, and spare immediate capacity for additional services on other routes? Certainly yes... (We could have >6tph on at least three or four other routes (subject to electrification) if we'd have gone with simple Heavy Rail re-alignments and upgrades)
