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Local Lockdown - North East England

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Trackman

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Why do you think that? Pubs used to have to close at 10:30pm on Sundays by law, and they still opened.
And on a Sunday lunchtime they could only open until 2pm.

Back OT, I read a story about a guy in Wigan flogging utility bills online for £20 so people in Bolton could go to the pub there! Also, they have a shut a pub in Wigan on the border.
 
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takno

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Wasn’t there a study somewhere that concluded that the risk with no mitigation (distancing or masks) was around 1 in 11,000?
That was the RSSB study. Possibly the worst study of anything I've seen over the entire COVID outbreak, and I've read some stinkers. Somebody at the RSSB evidently fancied paying someone at a consultancy, who fancied doing a crowd dynamics study. That isn't in any sense what was called for, but presumably that was what the computer program they'd just downloaded did.

They made a whole series of assumptions ranging from the improbable to the absolutely incorrect, and fed them into the model wherever they needed actual data. They then modelled the average period of time you'd be within 2m or 1m of other passengers, based on normal behaviour, and modified for the addition of one-way systems (but not for passengers actively avoiding each other - apparently the one way systems in this analysis are smarter than the passengers).

All of this magically spat out a figure of 1 in 11k, although one of the inputs was the prevailing infection rate in the UK at the time, so we're probably closer to 1 in 2k if they reran it now even based on their meaningless analysis.

The best bit was when somebody asked them about masks at the last minute and they clearly hadn't even though of that, so they grabbed a figure of masks being 44% safer from a sub-table of the WHO-funded masks analysis (that figure has its own problems), and they decided to just multiply by the 1 in 11k to say that it must be 1 in 20k. No consideration that the figures they dumped into the mincer to create the 1 in 11k might already take masks into account, or that the 44% safer figure was really nothing to do with public transport at all, just a multiplication.

Absolute rubbish
 

AdamWW

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And on a Sunday lunchtime they could only open until 2pm.

Or...going back a bit further...only serve bona-fide travellers.

So having to travel to get a drink instead of using a local pub isn't a new thing. I don't know if people used to have to wave a gas bill around to prove their bina-fides.
 

island

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Or...going back a bit further...only serve bona-fide travellers.

So having to travel to get a drink instead of using a local pub isn't a new thing. I don't know if people used to have to wave a gas bill around to prove their bina-fides.
My grandfather (RIP) lived a bit of a distance from his local village and could go to the pub at the far end of the village which was exactly three miles – the limit for bona fide travellers – away from his house, whereas the pub at the near end was just inside the limit and not open to him.
 

Crossover

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As far as I know, right now it’s:

Glasgow and surrounding areas
Manchester and surrounding areas
Bolton (strict lockdown)
Preston
Birmingham and surrounding areas
Leicester and surrounding areas
Caerphilly (Very strict lockdown)
Rhondda Cynon Taf
Soon to be Newcastle/Durham/Sunderland

Also bits of Kirklees, Calderdale and Bradford

Greater Manchester is now only bits of, too
 

Howardh

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Think I would rather have a fortnight's full UK wide lockdown than all these local lockdowns which seem random and mystifying, especially to non locals.
 

Domh245

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Think I would rather have a fortnight's full UK wide lockdown than all these local lockdowns which seem random and mystifying, especially to non locals.

But why should people in (for example) Sussex or Devon be locked down because of high case rates in the North West, North East, and West Midlands?
 

Bantamzen

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But why should people in (for example) Sussex or Devon be locked down because of high case rates in the North West, North East, and West Midlands?

Why should those areas be penalised because increased, and in some cases intense testing way beyond what other areas are having is finding more cases?
 

AdamWW

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Why should those areas be penalised because increased, and in some cases intense testing way beyond what other areas are having is finding more cases?

Because the people making the decisions aren't so stupid as to just look at raw number of positive tests without taking that into account?
 

Scrotnig

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Because the people making the decisions aren't so stupid as to just look at raw number of positive tests without taking that into account?
I wish I had your confidence about that.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Think I would rather have a fortnight's full UK wide lockdown than all these local lockdowns which seem random and mystifying, especially to non locals.
It wouldn't be a fortnight though, any more than the original one was only three weeks.

Compliance with any new 'stay at home, protect the NHS' nonsense will be far lower anyway. I shall certainly take absolutely no notice, if I want to go out on my own for a walk or a drive I absolutely will.
 

Ianno87

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Think I would rather have a fortnight's full UK wide lockdown than all these local lockdowns which seem random and mystifying, especially to non locals.

National "lockdown lite" would suit me.

-Social distancing still in place in workplaces and on transport, etc.
-Restaurants / Pubs to close by 2100
-Schools to carry on (unless there's a positive Covid result in a Bubble)
-National "Rule of 6" to continue


And then just "strict" lockdowns in a few select places known to need them.
 

Domh245

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Why should those areas be penalised because increased, and in some cases intense testing way beyond what other areas are having is finding more cases?

They clearly had to have some sort of issue beforehand to merit any additional testing resources. I also doubt that there is the same level of door to door testing of people in the hopes of finding cases (as was reported in Leicester) given the lack of capacity, the government will be able to (attempt to, roughly) match testing demand to regions based on people requesting tests through the website, a lot of people with BL postcodes trying to book a test will result in capacity being sent to Bolton. Similarly (I would hope) if suddenly a lot of requests start coming from TQ or IP postcodes then capacity will be allotted for Torquay and Ipswich
 

Howardh

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I wish I had your confidence about that.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==


It wouldn't be a fortnight though, any more than the original one was only three weeks.

Compliance with any new 'stay at home, protect the NHS' nonsense will be far lower anyway. I shall certainly take absolutely no notice, if I want to go out on my own for a walk or a drive I absolutely will.
Thing is though, if it's a full lockdown there would be no facilities when you got there, even so I enjoyed my walks in lockdown regardless!
 

yorkie

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Especially as those cars put cyclists and pedestrians at greater risk so I'm certainly not in favour of it.
Agreed.

However at the current time, the hysterical brigade are keen for all other health aspects to be very much relegated in importance. Mental health, fitness, access to cleaner air, safer roads, livelihoods, etc are not deemed as important by the illogically hysterical people who the Government are currently pandering to.

I am not interested in the opinions of the authoritarian hysterical people as I know that what they think is a load of absolute rubbish as they are so narrow minded they cannot see the bigger picture, nor can they evaluate actual risk objectively.
 

Bantamzen

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And its now breaking news that the North East are to be sent to the Covid-Naughty Step from midnight.....
 

Trackman

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Just been reading about the new restrictions in the NE, they seem to have been hit harder than Manchester (Well, apart from Bolton).
Rhondda Cynon Taf has gone in lockdown too, can't leave and can't enter but the pubs are open until 11pm
 

Peter Mugridge

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And its now breaking news that the North East are to be sent to the Covid-Naughty Step from midnight.....

I was watching Hancock's statement and he seems to have banned takeaways completely in that area? Something about restaurants being table service only and then the curfew hours on them.

He also seemed to effectively admit that they are dealing with recording a huge backlog of test results.


Bear in mind, though, that the subtitles on BBC News 24 that I was reading this off may have missed important bits out.
 

AdamWW

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I was watching Hancock's statement and he seems to have banned takeaways completely in that area? Something about restaurants being table service only and then the curfew hours on them.

Wouldn't table service only mean that they have to bring everything to your table rather than you fetching anything yourself?

E.g. McDonalds can stay open if they bring everything to you, but you can't queue up to collect your meal from the counter?

I'd be a little surprised if they were trying to ban takeaways.

Edited: to be clear, I'm suggesting that in this example McDonalds can let you queue up to collect a takeaway, but not to collect your meal to take to a table.
 
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Yew

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Surely this is just showing that this strategy can't possibly work? How much of the country is under lockdown regulations currently?
 

Peter Mugridge

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Wouldn't table service only mean that they have to bring everything to your table rather than you fetching anything yourself?

E.g. McDonalds can stay open if they bring everything to you, but you can't queue up to collect your meal from the counter?

I'd be a little surprised if they were trying to ban takeaways.

This is now on the BBC News website and seems to indicate that yes, it is tables only - no mention at all of takeaways.


Restaurants will only be able to offer table service and restaurants, bars and pubs will have to shut between 22:00 BST and 05:00.

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High Dyke

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I'd just booked my ticket for the footy at Morpeth, and sorted reservations on the train. And now this!

Yorkie was right about the hysterical brigade. I was chairing a meeting of our club committee last night. One of our staff has gone into self-isolation after coming into contact with a friend who has tested positive. None of this has happened in the club, and no other members are involved; however, it didn't stop a couple of the staff/committee ranting how that was the death knell for the club and everyone that has visited during the weekend needs contacting, as well as a thorough deep clean of the premises.
 

NorthOxonian

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I'd just booked my ticket for the footy at Morpeth, and sorted reservations on the train. And now this!

Yorkie was right about the hysterical brigade. I was chairing a meeting of our club committee last night. One of our staff has gone into self-isolation after coming into contact with a friend who has tested positive. None of this has happened in the club, and no other members are involved; however, it didn't stop a couple of the staff/committee ranting how that was the death knell for the club and everyone that has visited during the weekend needs contacting, as well as a thorough deep clean of the premises.

The reason why sports seem to be mentioned is because the main cause of the outbreak in parts of Sunderland/Durham appears to have been a charity football match. Around 300 people attended, but there were very few measures in place to ensure safety, and they ended up all cramming in the clubhouse afterwards (I've even heard some reports they did karaoke - about the worst activity you can do).

Non-league football clubs who are allowed to have fans have to put in certain measures to make things safe, carry out risk assessments, and so on. When I went to Ashington a couple of weeks back, it was very well handled indeed, and I would expect Morpeth to be no different. It's odd that they're advising people to avoid those sorts of properly organised matches, especially given infection rates in Morpeth are very low indeed.
 

greyman42

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National "lockdown lite" would suit me.

-Social distancing still in place in workplaces and on transport, etc.
-Restaurants / Pubs to close by 2100
-Schools to carry on (unless there's a positive Covid result in a Bubble)
-National "Rule of 6" to continue


And then just "strict" lockdowns in a few select places known to need them.
I assume you don't make your living in the hospitality sector.
 

DB

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I'd just booked my ticket for the footy at Morpeth, and sorted reservations on the train. And now this!

Yorkie was right about the hysterical brigade. I was chairing a meeting of our club committee last night. One of our staff has gone into self-isolation after coming into contact with a friend who has tested positive. None of this has happened in the club, and no other members are involved; however, it didn't stop a couple of the staff/committee ranting how that was the death knell for the club and everyone that has visited during the weekend needs contacting, as well as a thorough deep clean of the premises.

I asume that the club is only used at weekends? Do these people not get the point that the virus lasts 3-4 days max, so by the following weekend will be gone (in the unlikely event it was even there) without any intervention?
 

AdamWW

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Pubs, restaurants etc can still do a decent evening trade until 2100. Bet most are dead anyway after that at the moment.

Wouldn't surprise me if some people are pushed into eating later than they like to due to limited capacity.
 

Huntergreed

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I note that public transport has been advised as 'essential only', does this mean they are willingly discriminating against non car owners?

Seems a bit poor
 
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