Life after the end of "lockdown" 2.0

[ChrisC]

TBH there isn't really that big of a difference between T2 and T3. As far as I'm concerned I've still lost the liberty of seeing my own family, which is ridiculously draconian.

Not much difference between T2 and T3 regarding seeing your family and general rules of households mixing. A big difference for restaurants, hotels and those pubs where their main business is serving food.
It’s not ideal in T2 to only be able to serve groups from the same household but in the lead up to Christmas they will still do some business. It’s not just that hotels are closed in T3 but also people who live in T3 are not allowed to stay overnight in the hotels which are open in T2.

Where I live is in T3, but one of those rural areas with low infection rates, but in T3 because of higher rates in adjoining urban areas. Yet, as long as we remain in T3, I am not able stay overnight in a hotel anywhere, even in another rural area for a few days walking holiday.

 

[brad465]

Something that came to mind recently was that David Davis once resigned and stood in a by-election in 2008 to spark a debate about civil liberties. Back then it was in relation to the planned extension to detaining suspects under the Terrorism act to 42 days, now if he or anyone else wanted to do a similar "stunt" with regards to lost liberties this year it would probably gain a lot of traction.

 

[CaptainHaddock]

Here's a simple solution to the tiers problem. Divide the country into MPs constituencies and let each MP decide what tier their constituency should be in.

 

[Richard Scott]

The only reason why Tory MP's are revolting is that tier 3 is now beginning to affect southern Jessies. Otherwise they would be quite ok with us flat capped, whippet loving, mild drinking northerners locked down forever.

Just trying to help their constituents pity the rest don't including my local labour one who couldn't even be bothered to acknowledge my email.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

SAGE must be made to justify each and every action they propose, and if it doesn't achieve, it should be ditched. This was what happenned to the curfew measure on hospitality. Each and every action must be scrutinised and evaluated to the same, if not greater extent. The Government and SAGE have had it far too easy in this respect, and all MP's need to be insisting on the above.

When we had a media that excelled in proper investigative journalism, they would have been ripping this lot to shreds by now. Instead, we have newspapers and mainstream media not only salivating at all the bad news but, actually feeding the cycle of doom.
Never thought I’d say it, but the return of Farage to the scene may be our only hope of an alternative strategy*. It won’t make a blind bit of difference if 150 Tories vote against these policies. Labour have the same herd stupidity and are supporting this lunacy !

*Assuming the May elections are not cancelled by gruppenfuehrer Johnson

 

[Jamesrob637]

Trafford will be annoyed - 120 per 100,000 is way below the national average! That's today's figure and we have another three days of the national lockdown.

 

[yorksrob]

When we had a media that excelled in proper investigative journalism, they would have been ripping this lot to shreds by now. Instead, we have newspapers and mainstream media not only salivating at all the bad news but, actually feeding the cycle of doom.
Never thought I’d say it, but the return of Farage to the scene may be our only hope of an alternative strategy*. It won’t make a blind bit of difference if 150 Tories vote against these policies. Labour have the same herd stupidity and are supporting this lunacy !

*Assuming the May elections are not cancelled by gruppenfuehrer Johnson

I must admit, I don't hold out much hope that HM Opposition will provide the necessary scrutiny.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Something that came to mind recently was that David Davis once resigned and stood in a by-election in 2008 to spark a debate about civil liberties. Back then it was in relation to the planned extension to detaining suspects under the Terrorism act to 42 days, now if he or anyone else wanted to do a similar "stunt" with regards to lost liberties this year it would probably gain a lot of traction.

The one problem with that is that both of the CRG leaders hold quite marginal seats. Steve Baker in Wycombe is very vulnerable (and sadly looks a goner at the next election unless he has a huge personal vote), while Mark Harper's Forest of Dean seat is safer but still has a significant Labour vote in the former coal mining villages (Labour won it under Tony Blair). Then again, I could see Desmond Swayne doing something like that (his seat definitely is safe and he's a bit more of a maverick).

 

[HSTEd]

The government would simply refuse to move writs for a byelection on the grounds that the pandemic makes it "unsafe"

 

[Carlisle]

I must admit, I don't hold out much hope that HM Opposition will provide the necessary scrutiny.

Labour appeared to rush headfirst & opportunistically into promoting the Circuit Breaker idea without bothering to explain the necessity for its repetition nearly every subsequent month to deliver any conceivably worthwhile gain. Wales experience seems to confirm this .

 

[farleigh]

The only reason why Tory MP's are revolting is that tier 3 is now beginning to affect southern Jessies. Otherwise they would be quite ok with us flat capped, whippet loving, mild drinking northerners locked down forever.

How do you know this?

Didn't the north elect a good number of Tory MPs?

What is a Jessie?

 

[Freightmaster]

What is a Jessie?

 

[brad465]

The government would simply refuse to move writs for a byelection on the grounds that the pandemic makes it "unsafe"

I think such a position could backfire quickly: maybe if someone was pulling a stunt the Government could justify that stance, but if an MP leaves office through a more typical reason and the Government refuse, there'll be large shouts of denying democracy/representation, while the fact the US held its election as scheduled (bar several loads more postal votes), a measly by-election is hardly a concern, just add some extra "Covid-secure" measures.

Besides, under typical timetables for calling by-elections, if one was called tomorrow it'll likely be a few months before one actually takes place. This would be around February, after this so-called "sunset clause" and hopefully they'll have vaccinated enough people and/or got hospitalisations past the winter peak, such that lesser restrictions would be in place and allow a by-election.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Trafford will be annoyed - 120 per 100,000 is way below the national average! That's today's figure and we have another three days of the national lockdown.

Its the hospital situation that is key driver this from PHE situational report for Manchester

While there has been continued improvement in Greater Manchester, weekly case rates remain very high, especially amongst those aged over 60, at around 260 per 100,000 people. The pressure on the local NHS is decreasing in some areas but remains a concern; Manchester University hospital and Pennine Acute Trust remain under significant pressure.

So you can be an outlying area with low prevalence but if the local hospital is overrun aint going to help you

 

[DB]

Its the hospital situation that is key driver this from PHE situational report for Manchester


So you can be an outlying area with low prevalence but if the local hospital is overrun aint going to help you

Hospitals don't exist in isolation - if one is full, patients can go to another one. There's only a problem if they are all full.

Of course the politicians are issuing dire warnings that this might happen, including the Nightingale hospitals. Given that last time they issued these predictions of doom the Nightingale hospitals were barely used, it's not especially believable.

 

[yorksrob]

Labour rushed rather opportunistically into promoting the Circuit Breaker without bothering to explain the necessity for repetition nearly every subsequent month to deliver any meaningful gain, Wales proves this .

Yes, that turned out to be a complete waste of time !

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Hospitals don't exist in isolation - if one is full, patients can go to another one. There's only a problem if they are all full.

Of course the politicians are issuing dire warnings that this might happen, including the Nightingale hospitals. Given that last time they issued these predictions of doom the Nightingale hospitals were barely used, it's not especially believable.

Yes as we see in E.Sussex and Surrey currently the hospitals across the county lines are being called upon to support and then what happens if these counties get an uptick in cases (highly likely as nosocomial is a big spreader) they have limited hospital capacity and find themselves forced up a tier despite they still have low prevalence.

How is that fair on areas that are obeying the rules. This has got to be managed on geographical areas based on hospital capacity.

 

[yorksrob]

Yes as we see in E.Sussex and Surrey currently the hospitals across the county lines are being called upon to support and then what happens if these counties get an uptick in cases (highly likely as nosocomial is a big spreader) they have limited hospital capacity and find themselves forced up a tier despite they still have low prevalence.

How is that fair on areas that are obeying the rules. This has got to be managed on geographical areas based on hospital capacity.

People keep accepting this fallacy - it's not about whether one area is "obeying the rules" or not, People going to school, university, work, living in houses with relatives etc are obeying the rules. The virus doesn't live by the rules.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

People keep accepting this fallacy - it's not about whether one area is "obeying the rules" or not, People going to school, university, work, living in houses with relatives etc are obeying the rules. The virus doesn't live by the rules.

No it doesn't live by the rules but our hospital has capacity so is now being used to displace people out of Kent hospitals to give them surge capacity then we get forced into Tier 3 because our hospital has run out of capacity next time the mandarins run the numbers on what tier we should be in. Your proposition will result in whole country in Tier 3.

However, boil this down to the real issue which is whether we have enough hospital beds or not to absorb Covid cases and that 80% of those cases are from over 75 year olds. Oh and we knew all this from wave one and had shielding then yet this time around we don't have that so no wonder cases are shooting up in any area with high prevalence because we haven't protected those most vulnerable. Also high levels of outbreaks are still occurring within care homes because they've been given no real help to prevent it. Then you risk nosomical transmission if you do get hospitalised for other conditions because we aren't using the Nightingale hospitals for Covid only patients.

Cynic in me says this is engineered as it provides perfect air cover for the forthcoming BREXIT fiasco.

 

[bramling]

No it doesn't live by the rules but our hospital has capacity so is now being used to displace people out of Kent hospitals to give them surge capacity then we get forced into Tier 3 because our hospital has run out of capacity next time the mandarins run the numbers on what tier we should be in. Your proposition will result in whole country in Tier 3.

However, boil this down to the real issue which is whether we have enough hospital beds or not to absorb Covid cases and that 80% of those cases are from over 75 year olds. Oh and we knew all this from wave one and had shielding then yet this time around we don't have that so no wonder cases are shooting up in any area with high prevalence because we haven't protected those most vulnerable. Also high levels of outbreaks are still occurring within care homes because they've been given no real help to prevent it. Then you risk nosomical transmission if you do get hospitalised for other conditions because we aren't using the Nightingale hospitals for Covid only patients.

Cynic in me says this is engineered as it provides perfect air cover for the forthcoming BREXIT fiasco.

It does seem a convenient cover, as the last few days has seen the media and population in general bickering over which tier we’re all in, as well as a convenient overcurrent of “it’s not fair I’m in tier 3 and X isn’t”.

Meanwhile the Brexit clock is ticking and still no one really knows what’s happening with that.

There is of course another clock ticking, and that’s how long BJ has left. This whole thing really is a complete and utter shambles.

 

[duncanp]

Labour appeared to rush headfirst & opportunistically into promoting the Circuit Breaker idea without bothering to explain the necessity for its repetition nearly every subsequent month to deliver any conceivably worthwhile gains, Wales experience seems to confirm this .

And I see that Sir Keir Starmer is going to decide whether Labour are going to vote for the new tier system after a meeting with Professor Chris Twitty.

Well we know how that's going to turn out.

No doubt Professor Twitty will present lots of cooked up figures to make it look as though the NHS is about to collapse, and Sir Kier will not have the balls to question where the figures come from. or which random number generator was used to produce them.

 

[Smidster]

Where I live is in T3, but one of those rural areas with low infection rates, but in T3 because of higher rates in adjoining urban areas. Yet, as long as we remain in T3, I am not able stay overnight in a hotel anywhere, even in another rural area for a few days walking holiday.

Obviously it is for you to decide whether or not it is appropriate for your circumstances but the guidance of someone in T3 going on holiday in a different area falls in the "should" category - it will not be against the law to do so (* he says pending public of the regs 40 hours before they are law)

 

[yorksrob]

No it doesn't live by the rules but our hospital has capacity so is now being used to displace people out of Kent hospitals to give them surge capacity then we get forced into Tier 3 because our hospital has run out of capacity next time the mandarins run the numbers on what tier we should be in. Your proposition will result in whole country in Tier 3.

However, boil this down to the real issue which is whether we have enough hospital beds or not to absorb Covid cases and that 80% of those cases are from over 75 year olds. Oh and we knew all this from wave one and had shielding then yet this time around we don't have that so no wonder cases are shooting up in any area with high prevalence because we haven't protected those most vulnerable. Also high levels of outbreaks are still occurring within care homes because they've been given no real help to prevent it. Then you risk nosomical transmission if you do get hospitalised for other conditions because we aren't using the Nightingale hospitals for Covid only patients.

Cynic in me says this is engineered as it provides perfect air cover for the forthcoming BREXIT fiasco.

I don't have a preposition.

The reality is, cases will go up regardless of whether people follow the rules or not, because there are so many environments in which the virus can spread which aren't covered by them.

When people continually repeat the "it would all be ok if only people kept to the rules" line, it is merely encouraging them to put in place more pointless and counter-productive ones.

That's not to say that we should have a free-for-all, rather that the Government and it's advisors need to be forced to move away from a strategy of more or less continual lockdown.

 

[LAX54]

I see on the TV this morning, that many MP's are expecting another National lockdown in Jan/Feb next year, well.....there's a surprise ....not !
and no doubt again in maybe April and July !

 

[DB]

I don't have a preposition.

The reality is, cases will go up regardless of whether people follow the rules or not, because there are so many environments in which the virus can spread which aren't covered by them.

When people continually repeat the "it would all be ok if only people kept to the rules" line it, is merely encouraging them to put in place more pointless and counter-productive ones.

Indeed - but it's also worth noting that every single 'official' prediction so far has proved to considerably over-estimate the numbers and the risk. They are saying yet again that hospitals will be overwhelmed - but they've cried wolf too many times now. They also seem to assume exponential increase indefinitely, rather than the natural levelling off which actually happens without any measures being taken.

Of course, they are now claiming that the lockdown has worked, despite the numbers already declining before it started, and the widespread ignoring of it. This will no doubt be part of the positioning for a third lockdown - although hopefully if they do that then there will be a more significant backbench rebellion from their own MPs (I'm not expecting Labour to disagree wih any of it).

 

[Jamesrob637]

I see on the TV this morning, that many MP's are expecting another National lockdown in Jan/Feb next year, well.....there's a surprise ....not !
and no doubt again in maybe April and July !

Maybe short sharp lockdowns are the solution.

 

[DB]

Maybe short sharp lockdowns are the solution.

No, they aren't - they will just cause even more damage and uncertainly for various industries.

The solution is no lockdowns.

 

[Class 33]

No, they aren't - they will just cause even more damage and uncertainly for various industries.

The solution is no lockdowns.

Indeed. Enough is enough of these ridiculous lockdowns and the catastrophic damage they're doing to the economy and the people of this country.

Anyway, we've got these vaccines soon to be rolled out now anyway, as well as the R rate now estimated to be 0.88. Cases are coming down fast now, hospital admissions are edging down, and we are on the verge of deaths finally coming down(again). Absolutely pointless now for yet another national lockdown.

 

[trebor79]

Maybe short sharp lockdowns are the solution.

I had the same thought myself last night whilst attempting to get to sleep. I'd rather there were no such measures, but 4 weeks of lockdown followed by 8 to 12 weeks of normality would be much better than all of this tiers and illegal to see your own family nonsense. At least businesses and families could plan ahead.

 

[Jamesrob637]

No, they aren't - they will just cause even more damage and uncertainly for various industries.

The solution is no lockdowns.

In an ideal world yes, but the infection rates have fallen immensely during the national lockdown.