Life after the end of "lockdown" 2.0

[Richard Scott]

Not all you need surplus as peoples illness aren't predictable so having space when you need it is a good thing. This is how Germany keeps ahead of the curve.

I'm afraid surplus is wasteful, we can't have hospitals running way below capacity just in case. That means people who urgently need something done straight away aren't getting it. The virus will do what it does irrespective of lockdowns. We have already found ways of helping to treat it and that it isn't as bad as suspected back in March. We cannot carry on with this current "this might happen" attitude. It's wrecking everyone's lives.

 

[37424]

Exactly. Professor Whitty in particular seems to be a rather petulant and peevish sort of chap. he wants his own way and he does everything he can to get it, the Government were bounced into the present lockdown by his preposterous 'scenario' of 4.000 deaths per day, something which he should have been vigorously held to account for.
Now, he's making it very clear that he's unhappy with the Christmas relaxations and putting his marker down for another lockdown in the new year which he'll probably support with another false prospectus.

Were they? i suspect part of the November lockdown was to provide some opportunity to relax things a Christmas a little bit, otherwise we would likely have been facing the most severe restrctions at Christmas time.

 

[Skimpot flyer]

If all these restrictions are designed to limit intermingling, they are failing dismally. Whitty and co have no idea of human behaviour.
Yesterday was a cold but sunny day. People in Brighton and Hove, faced with closed shops, no cinemas, no pubs, no gyms etc, all seemed to go for a stroll along the seafront (the pier and i360 Tower are closed of course). The promenade was heaving!
I’ve also not seen so many people sitting on the beach in late November, ever.
This photo was taken near sunset at 4pm, when crowds had thinned a bit. I don’t think for one second that this behaviour will cause ‘super spreading’ of the virus; but the protesters gathering in London were being arrested on the basis that they were endangering public health, under the Coronavirus Act.

 

[duncanp]

The Telegraph are reporting that Boris Johnson has been forced to offer MPs a vote on 27th January as to whether the restrictions should continue beyond 3rd February.

In addition, there will be four reviews of the tiers between now and the end of January (16th December, 30th December, 13th January, 27th January) which will provide an opportunity for areas to be moved down the tiers.

The BBC are also saying that the government will publish the criteria that an area will need to meet before an area can be moved down a tier.

So it would seem that Boris Johnson is on the ropes this morning, and has been forced to make concessions.

I am reminded of a quote from Yes Minister in which Sir Humphrey Appleby said "when you've got them by the short & curlies, their hearts and minds tend to follow"

Virus tiers could end in nine weeks, Boris Johnson says, to head off mass Tory rebellion

The Prime Minister has been forced to give Parliament a vote in climbdown that could see tier system end long before Easter

www.telegraph.co.uk

The coronavirus tier system could end in just nine weeks, Boris Johnson told his MPs on Saturday night in an attempt to head off a major rebellion by furious Conservative MPs.
In a letter to Tory MPs, the Prime Minister said he would allow the House of Commons to vote on the new tiers in late January, saying the regulations "have a sunset of 3 February".
The move, which could require a parliamentary vote to extend the restrictions by that date, will be seen as a major concession from the Prime Minister, after up to 100 Tory MPs threatened the biggest rebellion of Mr Johnson's premiership, amid fears the regulations would last until Easter.
There has been widespread anger from all wings of the party over a broad brush approach that has put low incidence areas into higher tiers because they are in the same county as a city with a high infection rate. He also separately wrote to rebel leaders Mark Harper and Steve Baker.

It comes amid increasing hopes of a vaccine being approved by regulators this week, raising expectations that areas can be released from tighter restrictions sooner rather than later, with officials poised to begin inoculation on December 7.

On Tuesday, MPs will vote on plans that will place 99 per cent of England's population in the highest tiers from Wednesday, with only Cornwall, the Isle of Wight and Isles of Scilly placed in the lowest Tier 1.
In a letter sent to all Tory MPs on Saturday night, Mr Johnson said there would be "an opportunity to review all tier allocations at the first review point on Dec 16. At that point we will have a fuller picture of the impact of the national restrictions".
Those expected to benefit from any easing of the system include 16.4 million people living in 88 boroughs in Tier 3 where the Covid-19 infection rate is lower than for some areas in Tier 2.
But he indicated the Government would seek to extend the restrictions until the end of March “as we believe it will be necessary to control the virus through the winter”.

All the tiers would be reviewed against five indicators including case detection rates in all age groups; case detection rates in the over 60s; the rate at which cases are rising or falling; positivity rate (the number of positive cases detected as a percentage of tests taken); and pressure on the NHS.
Mr Johnson said he would personally chair a Cabinet Office committee which will "take the final decision on tier allocations". Decisions will be announced on Dec 17 and come into force on Dec 19.
He added: "We will also consider local views to build the most accurate picture of what is happening on the ground.
Mr Johnson also promised that "ahead of the vote on Tuesday, we will publish further analysis of the health, economic and social impacts of Covid and the measures taken to suppress them".

The Prime Minister's hand could have been forced by the fact that Labour is threatening to abstain in Tuesday's vote, potentially pitching Mr Johnson against his rebels to force through the plans.
A well-placed Labour source told The Telegraph: "We have not yet made a decision. It is not a surprise to say that abstention may be possible. I can't see us voting against."
Anneliese Dodds, the shadow Chancellor, told an online conference: "It is completely irresponsible for the Government to leave Tier 3 areas in the lurch like this again."

More than 23 million people have been placed in the most restrictive Tier 3, in which almost all household mixing is banned, and bars and restaurants are limited to takeaway and delivery services.
Writing in The Telegraph, Mr Harper, the chairman of the anti-lockdown Covid Recovery Group, said: "There is no doubt that Covid is a deadly disease to many and it is vital that we control its spread effectively.
"But we must give equal regard to other lethal killers like cancer, dementia and heart disease, and all the health implications of poverty and falling GDP."
MPs have been particularly angered that they would not be given another say on tiers, potentially condemning some parts of England to the strictest measures until Easter without any Parliamentary oversight.
Mr Johnson's offer does not meet the CRG's demands, after Mr Harper called for "a review point in early January that will allow MPs to renew – or withhold – their support for further restrictions."
He added: "The proposed restrictions are severe, and will have huge repercussions when it comes to people’s health, businesses and livelihoods."
Another rebel Richard Drax, Conservative MP for South Dorset, added: “I am not convinced lockdowns, tiered or otherwise, work, and the devastation they are causing to lives and livelihoods is truly shocking.”
Writing in The Telegraph, Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Leader of the House of Commons, said he understood "the frustrations of the public, and of my colleagues, at these restrictions. I feel them too, profoundly".
He added: "But we need to take these steps to control the virus, protect the NHS from being overwhelmed and ultimately save lives.”

​

 

[Skimpot flyer]

Sky News reporting of yesterday’s demonstration in London includes the reporter proclaiming ‘these people don’t believe in THE SCIENCE, don’t believe in lockdowns, and they don’t consider it necessary to have social distancing’...
No mention of the fact that at least some of those gathered were in fact protesting about the loss of civil liberties including the right to protest !!

I noticed that a police tactic was to pick-off individual protestors, with no apparent reason for the particular individual to be singled-out. This almost tipped over into a violent reaction (see at about 1m15s) from other protestors.
It is only a matter of time before these protests become violent, because many people are having their livelihoods, and everything they’ve worked for, destroyed. When you put people in a position where they have nothing to lose, it’s a potential tinderbox...

 

[Bantamzen]

Sky News reporting of yesterday’s demonstration in London includes the reporter proclaiming ‘these people don’t believe in THE SCIENCE, don’t believe in lockdowns, and they don’t consider it necessary to have social distancing’...
No mention of the fact that at least some of those gathered were in fact protesting about the loss of civil liberties including the right to protest !!

I noticed that a police tactic was to pick-off individual protestors, with no apparent reason for the particular individual to be singled-out. This almost tipped over into a violent reaction (see at about 1m15s) from other protestors.
It is only a matter of time before these protests become violent, because many people are having their livelihoods, and everything they’ve worked for, destroyed. When you put people in a position where they have nothing to lose, it’s a potential tinderbox...

What is this "the science" to which the reporter refers? As I understand it science is not binary, and there is little to no evidence that any of these measures actually work, in fact the data contradicts them. If this were some report from a news agency in a banana republic we'd be calling it government propaganda. And I love how they also mention that images of citizens being arrested would not sit well with Tory backbenchers. These kinds of images should not sit well with any reasonably minded people in this country.

And I agree it is only a matter of time before these protests become violent. I've been very surprised just how calmly the country has taken this so far, given that literally millions of people have lost, or are at risk of losing their jobs. But that isn't going to last, which is why BoJo is already on the retreat and dialling back on T3 restrictions lasting until Easter.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

Exactly. Professor Whitty in particular seems to be a rather petulant and peevish sort of chap. he wants his own way and he does everything he can to get it, the Government were bounced into the present lockdown by his preposterous 'scenario' of 4.000 deaths per day, something which he should have been vigorously held to account for.
Now, he's making it very clear that he's unhappy with the Christmas relaxations and putting his marker down for another lockdown in the new year which he'll probably support with another false prospectus.

Witty isn't married looks like he's very introverted so he can't empathise with the situation he is creating for the majority of people. Yes he's no doubt very expert in his field but this is where balance is needed and to be fair to Witty he always says I just provide one of the inputs for govt to consider.

Vallance controls SPI-M and this is the organisation that has got independent research organisation to do modelling. The Cabinet Office coordinate this information and what is released this is where the fault lies in naff info being used or maybe not given Cabinet Secretariat is Goves empire. In my view it was deliberate to provide air cover for a no deal BREXIT scenario.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Nov 2020 ==

The Telegraph are reporting that Boris Johnson has been forced to offer MPs a vote on 27th January as to whether the restrictions should continue beyond 3rd February.

In addition, there will be four reviews of the tiers between now and the end of January (16th December, 30th December, 13th January, 27th January) which will provide an opportunity for areas to be moved down the tiers.

The BBC are also saying that the government will publish the criteria that an area will need to meet before an area can be moved down a tier.

So it would seem that Boris Johnson is on the ropes this morning, and has been forced to make concessions.

I am reminded of a quote from Yes Minister in which Sir Humphrey Appleby said "when you've got them by the short & curlies, their hearts and minds tend to follow"

Virus tiers could end in nine weeks, Boris Johnson says, to head off mass Tory rebellion

The Prime Minister has been forced to give Parliament a vote in climbdown that could see tier system end long before Easter

www.telegraph.co.uk

​

Scotland does this weekly and quite frankly it should be done daily using a number of criteria for instance:

x days previous case rate below a threshold
% of beds available in hospital

and the local Public Health Director should control it with local politicians

 

[317 forever]

Over the last few weeks, since Nottingham had the highest Covid infection levels in the country, I have been looking at a daily updated map on a website called Covidlive. It’s actually covidlive.co.uk but I don’t know how to include a link in my post. Since that time levels in Nottinghamshire and the City of Nottingham have been falling quite significantly. The map has all areas colour coded in shades of blue with the darker blue being the worst infected areas. The areas shaded in the darker blue are as expected mainly those areas that are now in Tier 3 including large parts of Yorkshire, Manchester and Lancashire, South Wales, the North East etc. However, I notice that today Nottinghamshire and Derbyshire have moved to a lighter blue as infection levels are now more in line with areas of the country that are in Tier 2. Sadly I have my doubts whether this will have any influence when levels are reviewed on 16th December. Incidentally areas of East London around Redbridge and Havering are shaded dark blue with levels rising but have been put in Tier 2.

As it is, Greater London stretches further east than in any other direction. Had Havering been in Essex proper rather than Greater London, they might have been in Tier 3.

 

[brad465]

Aren't Kent MPs all Tories? They can force Boris' hand by threatening not to pass anything unless he backs down Tier 3 (Starmer will pass lockdowns, but not a budget or sth like that, and if most of Kent is on board, they face close to no risk of being deselected)

Canterbury is Labour, but the rest are all Tory constituencies yes (16 out of 17). This makes me believe we won't last long in Tier 3 as it'll be costly to the Government.

 

[317 forever]

Most people could not care less.

I also doubt the pubs in York, or anywhere for that matter, will check where people are from. After the year they have had, they need whatever trade they can get.

 

[island]

I also doubt the pubs in York, or anywhere for that matter, will check where people are from. After the year they have had, they need whatever trade they can get.

They do not need to. The restrictions on gathering indoors are the same for tiers 2 and 3 (household and bubble only) and nothing in law prevents someone resident in a tier 3 area in England from travelling to a tier 2 area in England and using any business that is open there.

 

[yorkie]

I don't agree with people going out to protest (and I said the same when it was BLM and others) but I do not agree with the police behaviour either. The behaviour of the police is surely counterproductive.

The idea that most people are pro-lockdown and that people who are opposed to lockdowns all believe in conspiracies is absurd and just alienates people even more. It makes me even more determined to argue with the pro-lockdown brigade. The longer this goes on, and the more the pro-lockdown brigade refuse to see the bigger picture, the less I care whether I fall out with people over this. They may not get to see the negative effects of lockdowns in their line of work, but I do. I see everything I work for under attack and everything I live for under attack. This is an assault on the younger generation in particular and it is an assault on peoples livelihoods, it is an assault on our freedoms. People who participate in sports are under attack. I'm absolutely sick of the attitude of those who attack everything we stand for. When this is over, I won't forget.

Now if I am angry, given I am in a fortunate position for the most part and am more angry over the effect on others, I can't begin to imagine how angry others must be. The Government are creating a very dangerous situation, which is driven by the demands of the lockdown enthusiast brigade.

 

[bramling]

Exactly. Professor Whitty in particular seems to be a rather petulant and peevish sort of chap. he wants his own way and he does everything he can to get it, the Government were bounced into the present lockdown by his preposterous 'scenario' of 4.000 deaths per day, something which he should have been vigorously held to account for.
Now, he's making it very clear that he's unhappy with the Christmas relaxations and putting his marker down for another lockdown in the new year which he'll probably support with another false prospectus.

To some extent I can sympathise with Whitty - he is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t.

However it is Boris whose finger is on the trigger, and he should be able to both challenge Whitty, and justify this to the nation. He’s completely failed to do this.

I think Whitty May be stroppy because he knows that he would very quickly be the sacrificial lamb should Boris wish to deflect bad things.

 

[duncanp]

And this morning we have Dominic Raab and, yes you've guessed it, the ubiquitous "SAGE scientist", trying to scare everyone into thinking that cases are too high, and that the restrictions cannot be relaxed.

The Telegraph are even reporting that Dominic Raab refused to rule out a third national lockdown if there is a resurgence in cases in the new year.

I don't think the scare tactics are going to work this time.

Risk of a third wave 'if we don't get the balance right' warns Raab

The UK could experience a third wave of coronavirus infections after Christmas if restrictions are are eased too much over the coming weeks and months, Dominic Raab has warned.

www.telegraph.co.uk

The UK could experience a third wave of coronavirus infections after Christmas if restrictions are are eased too much over the coming weeks and months, Dominic Raab has warned.

Asked by BBC's Andrew Marr whether Britain may suffer a resurgence of cases in January and February, the Foreign Secretary said: "There's a risk of that if we don't get the balance right."

He added that the tiered approach and mass lockdown would be central to further suppress the pandemic before mass vaccination has taken place - a process he hopes will begin "before Christmas".

Mr Raab' comments come amid a growing Tory rebellion over the new tiered system.

In an attempt to appease MPs, the Prime Minister said last night he would allow the House of Commons to vote on the new tiers in late January, saying the regulations "have a sunset of 3 February" - a timeframe Mr Raab defended as "realistic".

But scientists and public health experts have consistently warned that "rates are still too high, there are too many people coming into hospital and too many people dying" to lift restrictions yet.

"We scientists are very concerned indeed about relaxation of precautions at this stage," Peter Openshaw, an immunologist from Imperial College who sits on Sage's nine-strong clinical information group, told the BBC.

"If we take the breaks off at this stage, just when the end is in sight, I think we'd be making a huge mistake... I think we must keep this under control and just behave very very sensibly," he said.

 

[Richard Scott]

And this morning we have Dominic Raab and, yes you've guessed it, the ubiquitous "SAGE scientist", trying to scare everyone into thinking that cases are too high, and that the restrictions cannot be relaxed.

The Telegraph are even reporting that Dominic Raab refused to rule out a third national lockdown if there is a resurgence in cases in the new year.

I don't think the scare tactics are going to work this time.

Risk of a third wave 'if we don't get the balance right' warns Raab

The UK could experience a third wave of coronavirus infections after Christmas if restrictions are are eased too much over the coming weeks and months, Dominic Raab has warned.

www.telegraph.co.uk

Interesting that he says when questioned about a resurgence in cases "there is a risk if we don't get the balance right". All of a sudden he is now a leading light in all things virus, where did this new found intellect come from? Just cannot believe how politicians carry on spouting such rubbish. It's a virus, it doesn't care about balance, lockdowns or anything else. They just don't get it do they?

 

[trainophile]

"If we take the breaks off at this stage, just when the end is in sight, I think we'd be making a huge mistake... I think we must keep this under control and just behave very very sensibly," he said.

Interesting typo/spello there. Does he mean brakes, or breaks as in "give us a break"?

 

[yorkie]

They mean brakes.

 

[yorksrob]

If I were a member of parliament, I would be asking for every measure to be justified in it's own right in terms of restrictions - not just throwing a load of people to the wolves randomly in the hope that they will result in fewer numbers coming out the other end, which is clearly what the Government are doing at the moment. Examples are:

- The curbs on hospitality - there are no statistics or evidence to suggest that hospitality is the cause of the majority of cases, or that kicking people out after a substantial meal will have an effect great enough to justify the hardship.

- The current restriction on people from more than two households outdoors - we know that the virus has difficulty transmitting outdoors. Where is the evidence that this restriction is serving any purpose.

- The current restriction on non-essential shops being open. Where is the evidence that this has had a substantial effect in itself.

- All restrictions must be evaluated to see whether they have a detrimental effect, i.e. people being crowded into remaining shops.

SAGE must be made to justify each and every action they propose, and if it doesn't achieve, it should be ditched. This was what happenned to the curfew measure on hospitality. Each and every action must be scrutinised and evaluated to the same, if not greater extent. The Government and SAGE have had it far too easy in this respect, and all MP's need to be insisting on the above.

 

[trebor79]

If I were a member of parliament, I would be asking for every measure to be justified in it's own right in terms of restrictions - not just throwing a load of people to the wolves randomly in the hope that they will result in fewer numbers coming out the other end, which is clearly what the Government are doing at the moment. Examples are:

- The curbs on hospitality - there are no statistics or evidence to suggest that hospitality is the cause of the majority of cases, or that kicking people out after a substantial meal will have an effect great enough to justify the hardship.

- The current restriction on people from more than two households outdoors - we know that the virus has difficulty transmitting outdoors. Where is the evidence that this restriction is serving any purpose.

- The current restriction on non-essential shops being open. Where is the evidence that this has had a substantial effect in itself.

- All restrictions must be evaluated to see whether they have a detrimental effect, i.e. people being crowded into remaining shops.

SAGE must be made to justify each and every action they propose, and if it doesn't achieve, it should be ditched. This was what happenned to the curfew measure on hospitality. Each and every action must be scrutinised and evaluated to the same, if not greater extent. The Government and SAGE have had it far too easy in this respect, and all MP's need to be insisting on the above.

Also the legal prohibition on seeing your own family. Regardless of the threat, that can never ever be right.

 

[ChrisC]

Canterbury is Labour, but the rest are all Tory constituencies yes (16 out of 17). This makes me believe we won't last long in Tier 3 as it'll be costly to the Government.

I agree that large areas of Kent should not be in Tier 3 but that can also be said for large areas in the Midlands and the North. Many of those constituencies that the Tories won from Labour at the last election will be even more costly to the government than relatively safe Conservative seats in Kent. If any parts of Kent are moved down to Tier 2 after the 16th December review it must also happen in Northumberland, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, Derbyshire, Warwickshire, Somerset and many more areas.

 

[trebor79]

TBH there isn't really that big of a difference between T2 and T3. As far as I'm concerned I've still lost the liberty of seeing my own family, which is ridiculously draconian.

 

[duncanp]

If any parts of Kent are moved down to Tier 2 after the 16th December review it must also happen in Northumberland, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, Derbyshire, Warwickshire, Somerset and many more areas.

One thing you can be sure of is that everywhere in Tier 3 will be watching their infection rates closely and comparing them with areas that are in Tier 2. Similarly for areas in Tier 2 that are looking to move down to Tier 1.

The infection rate for my local authority (Sandwell, West Midlands) peaked at 515.1 on 14th November, and is now (using data up to 24th November) equal to 340.6. It is declining at a rate of 30% per week, so by the time of the first review into the tiers on 16th December it will be around 120.0, which would represent a decline of 75% since the peak. Even if the rate of decline slows somewhat, the rate would be well below 200, and would certainly justify us being moved into Tier 2.

There will be a huge backlash against the government if parts of Kent are moved into Tier 2, whilst areas in the North and Midlands with similar infection rates are kept in Tier 3.

 

[brad465]

I agree that large areas of Kent should not be in Tier 3 but that can also be said for large areas in the Midlands and the North. Many of those constituencies that the Tories won from Labour at the last election will be even more costly to the government than relatively safe Conservative seats in Kent. If any parts of Kent are moved down to Tier 2 after the 16th December review it must also happen in Northumberland, Nottinghamshire, Lancashire, Yorkshire, Lincolnshire, Derbyshire, Warwickshire, Somerset and many more areas.

Yes I agree that large parts of the country shouldn't be at T3 level, which with the lockdown effects set to filter through further by that point should in any case mean no excuse for bringing many areas down. Politically though Kent does have the threat of Brexit costing Tory support on top, so any consequences of T3 are not the only issue the Government has.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I do think the Tier decisions have been made on Counties and not individual Local Authorities/Boroughs.

Lancashire is in Tier 3 but yet Ribble Valley has a really low infection rate, so why can't those in the RV borough not at least be in Tier 2?

It does seem like the government have made decisions like this to prevent cross border hopping. But yet there are bound to be people in Greater Manchester who are going to gravitate into Cheshire and Merseyside in the next couple of weeks to enjoy a meal out or visit a local attraction.

For me, I'm seeing more mental fatigue amongst people I talk to. The news about the government review dates - two in December & two in January are merely indications that Boris Johnson is going to continue holding us at bay for at least ten weeks which is only going to perhaps bring further gloom ahead.

CJ

 

[geoffk]

TBH there isn't really that big of a difference between T2 and T3. As far as I'm concerned I've still lost the liberty of seeing my own family, which is ridiculously draconian.

Pubs and restaurants - that's a big difference. All closed in T3.

 

[52290]

Yes I agree that large parts of the country shouldn't be at T3 level, which with the lockdown effects set to filter through further by that point should in any case mean no excuse for bringing many areas down. Politically though Kent does have the threat of Brexit costing Tory support on top, so any consequences of T3 are not the only issue the Government has.

The only reason why Tory MP's are revolting is that tier 3 is now beginning to affect southern Jessies. Otherwise they would be quite ok with us flat capped, whippet loving, mild drinking northerners locked down forever.

 

[trebor79]

Pubs and restaurants - that's a big difference. All closed in T3.

Meh. They're all but closed in tier 2, probably not worth opening for most.

 

[trainophile]

Pubs and restaurants - that's a big difference. All closed in T3.

And travel. Not allowed to travel into or out of your Tier 3 zone.

 

[island]

And travel. Not allowed to travel into or out of your Tier 3 zone.

The travel rule is advisory, whereas the pubs/restaurants are mandatory.

 

[greyman42]

And travel. Not allowed to travel into or out of your Tier 3 zone.

I don't believe that's the case.