Life after the end of "lockdown" 2.0

[duncanp]

I've heard that the vaccine programmes could be effective and rolled out with the most of the older generation vaccinated by as early as February which is quite promising.

However, we still have December & January to contend with which are going to be challenging months.

CJ

I wouldn't mind betting that the government has in mind a timetable for the progressive relaxations of restrictions, depending on how well the vaccine program goes.

The reason I say this is that they must know the country is not going to stand much more of this lockdown/tier nonsense, which will have been made plain to them by their own MPs this week.

Of course the government will never admit to this, but if they try and maintain everywhere in their current tiers until the end of March, people will just stop complying with the rules, especially when they see infection rates continue to fall.

 

[greyman42]

That is unlikely to be legal.

Most people could not care less.

 

[Richard Scott]

I wouldn't mind betting that the government has in mind a timetable for the progressive relaxations of restrictions, depending on how well the vaccine program goes.

The reason I say this is that they must know the country is not going to stand much more of this lockdown/tier nonsense, which will have been made plain to them by their own MPs this week.

Of course the government will never admit to this, but if they try and maintain everywhere in their current tiers until the end of March, people will just stop complying with the rules, especially when they see infection rates continue to fall.

Don't think people are complying much now judging by the number I see out and about.

 

[Dent]

I've heard that the vaccine programmes could be effective and rolled out with the most of the older generation vaccinated by as early as February which is quite promising.

However, we still have December & January to contend with which are going to be challenging months.

CJ

That's a rather disingenuous use of the phrase "as early as". February is still more than two moths away, and nearly a whole year since the start of restrictions. By what definition is that "early"?

 

[trebor79]

That's a rather disingenuous use of the phrase "as early as". February is still more than two moths away, and nearly a whole year since the start of restrictions. By what definition is that "early"?

I don't think it's disingenuous at all. If there had been a vaccine sat approved and ready to go in March you might have a point, but that isn't where we were or where we are.
If significant numbers of vulnerable people were vaccinated by February that would be fabulous. I'm sceptical, 2 doses 4 weeks apart means you'd need everyone to have had their first dose by the end of December/early January. That feels a bit aspirational to me, given it's not yet been approved for use, and then you have silly season Christmas, New Year etc in the way.

 

[C J Snarzell]

That's a rather disingenuous use of the phrase "as early as". February is still more than two moths away, and nearly a whole year since the start of restrictions. By what definition is that "early"?

I was anticipating tight restrictions until maybe the end of March/beginning of April but the phrase 'earlier' than that is a positive remark meaning the Country might be allowed to return to some sort of normality in February.

CJ

 

[NorthOxonian]

I was anticipating tight restrictions until maybe the end of March/beginning of April but the phrase 'earlier' than that is a positive remark meaning the Country might be allowed to return to some sort of normality in February.

CJ

To be frank, I would consider tight restrictions until Easter optimistic at this point, and wouldn't be surprised if they lasted longer.

I hope I'm wrong - my birthday is just after Easter and obviously I don't want it to be a lonely one. But I can't see them easing restrictions until a lot of people have had the vaccine, more than just the vulnerable. No doubt the focus will shift from saving lives to stopping "long Covid" once the vulnerable are vaccinated.

 

[Richard Scott]

To be frank, I would consider tight restrictions until Easter optimistic at this point, and wouldn't be surprised if they lasted longer.

I hope I'm wrong - my birthday is just after Easter and obviously I don't want it to be a lonely one. But I can't see them easing restrictions until a lot of people have had the vaccine, more than just the vulnerable. No doubt the focus will shift from saving lives to stopping "long Covid" once the vulnerable are vaccinated.

I'm just fed up with ever shifting goal posts and don't trust anything politicians say about can relax restrictions when X or Y happens as is never the case. I just want to get on with life and may be being selfish but so far have given up 8 months of it for this cause now with no sign to an end. I could have got less time for some crimes and, even then, I'd know how long it was for.

 

[kez19]

You've got to laugh.

What about a Most Ridiculous Suggestions To Keep People "Safe" thread?

Perhaps everyone should eat Christmas dinner in full hazmat suits just to be on the safe side.

Presumably no first footing will be allowed at Hogmanay either, or if you do you will have to post the lump of coal, shortbread, black bun and a miniature bottle of whisky through the letter box.

I will always ask this, these people in charge be in UK or devolved parliaments if they are quick to suggest/dish it out they should lead by example then?

Do we really think Jason Leitch or Nicola Sturgeon are going to sit around a decorating/pasting table over Christmas (or for that matter anytime of year?).... no!

I understand people have a right to question the UK government and its suggestions in regards to levels etc but also rather than dish it out at UK specific maybe everyone should read up a bit on the other devolved parliaments too (and it ain't that pretty either/better!)

Hogmanay - let off your own fireworks!

Watching the Scottish Government and its "levels" ad again, looking at it carefully they countdown from 4, in every scene there is a feature yet after it comes out at 1, 0 is just highlighted! (strangely enough wouldn't you have been better zooming out more at 0 than 1 or is 1 just the end goal and 0 no longer exists?

 

[yorksrob]

To be frank, I would consider tight restrictions until Easter optimistic at this point, and wouldn't be surprised if they lasted longer.

I hope I'm wrong - my birthday is just after Easter and obviously I don't want it to be a lonely one. But I can't see them easing restrictions until a lot of people have had the vaccine, more than just the vulnerable. No doubt the focus will shift from saving lives to stopping "long Covid" once the vulnerable are vaccinated.

There needs to be a real push back against this point. Officials calling for everything but the most innocuous of restrictions (e.g. no hand shaking) to extend beyond the vaccination of the most vulnerable sectors of society, need to be publically contradicted.

 

[C J Snarzell]

If there is a reduced (not removed) threat level of Covid fatality by February thanks to the vaccine, which means the older/vulnerable & NHS are better protected - can Johnson, Hancock, Whitty and other key figures continue to justify keeping the rest of us under these Tier restrictions until April? They probably will but I'm sure we'll see more scenes of confrontational protests like we've seen in London today if they do.

CJ

 

[Skimpot flyer]

You've got to laugh.

What about a Most Ridiculous Suggestions To Keep People "Safe" thread?

Perhaps everyone should eat Christmas dinner in full hazmat suits just to be on the safe side.

Presumably no first footing will be allowed at Hogmanay either, or if you do you will have to post the lump of coal, shortbread, black bun and a miniature bottle of whisky through the letter box.

It’s getting increasingly difficult to tell the difference between the real news stories and the satirical ones these days. Thank goodness we have respected news sources we can trust, like The Daily Mash, to report the truth...

Everyone on country walk pissed off with everyone else on country walk

ALL the people who have headed to a local beauty spot for a countryside walk are resentfully glaring at all the other people who have done the same thing.

www.thedailymash.co.uk

 

[david1212]

I agree with Yorkie in that nobody I speak to is supportive of the current lockdown or the tiering arrangements. Everyone I speak to is being sensible - I've had a few conversations about Christmas recently where people said they won't be having a big gathering this year due to the risk to elderly relatives. That's sensible and how it should work, people evaluating their own risk and making sensible decisions. The job of SAGE should be to provide factual information to help people make the right decisions.

I should add that many of these people did support the original lockdown (I did, more or less), but that was when the disease was unknown and we were subject to those awful pictures of Italian hospitals.

I don't think we should go straight to a world with no restrictions at all. Mass gatherings don't seem a great idea at the moment. But the current rules are just nonsense - from next week I can legally go to an indoor event with 999 other people, but I can't go into my mum's house for a cuppa without breaking the law.

SAGE - exactly.

At the indoor event it should be controlled such that you are always 2m from everyone except another member of your household / bubble. At the latter you can not be trusted to sit as far away as possible and not stay too long. Too much about ' box ticking ' compliance and too little about common sense not to mention morale boosting and reducing the risk of mental health issues.

Children should meet their grandparents outside where possible - so lets say its at least 1 degrees celsius lets freeze everyone outside than be in a warm place (again what did we do as a society prior to all this.... oh wait we all met INSIDE!)

Which is higher risk given not least children are the least likely to pass on Covid-19 -
a - grandparents getting Covid-19
b - grandparents getting pneumonia

 

[yorksrob]

The job of SAGE should be to provide factual information to help people make the right decisions.

I agree with the sentiment above wholeheartedly.

The job of SAGE should not be to close down sections of the economy on hunches.

 

[kez19]

SAGE - exactly.

At the indoor event it should be controlled such that you are always 2m from everyone except another member of your household / bubble. At the latter you can not be trusted to sit as far away as possible and not stay too long. Too much about ' box ticking ' compliance and too little about common sense not to mention morale boosting and reducing the risk of mental health issues.



Which is higher risk given not least children are the least likely to pass on Covid-19 -
a - grandparents getting Covid-19
b - grandparents getting pneumonia

Yet again I ask where have all these precautions been since the dawn of time?

You didn't see the governments actually caring when someone got a cold or flu (other than telling people to get their flu shot)


regardless of advice given out, I have given up on A) SAGE themselves B) WHO C) politicians D) media as it seems pretty much a stitch up, so why should we trust any of them now?

One organisation is pushing to the extremes - with politicians of UK/devolved governments and adds fuel to the media fire, the other didn't have a clue in the beginning of the outbreak, told countries to do lockdown/wear masks etc and has suddenly starting to change its mind on countries locking down but still though the media add fuel to it all.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

There seems to be growing media coverage of general unrest amongst MPs and council leaders in large rural areas of Kent now that the whole county is to go into Tier 3. They are campaigning for a more local approach saying that areas like Tunbridge Wells and Romney Marsh should not be in same Tier as Margate, Isle of Sheppey etc.

I completely agree but also think, welcome to the situation we have had in the north for weeks. The most sparsely populated areas of England in Northumberland in Tier 3 with Newcastle. The same can be said for rural areas of Lancashire, West Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire etc etc. Will anything change now it’s happening down south in Kent?

The biggest driver on the tiering is occupancy of the main hospitals which serve rural areas as well towns and people in local areas need to recognise they are totally immune just because they live in the countryside. Kents main hopsitals are filling up with cases now being transferred out of area into adjacent counties now putting additional areas at risk.

To be honest surely hospitals should be running at close to or at 100% capacity otherwise why have the facility? If there are empty beds and staff doing very little then that's a huge waste of a resource so this sort of scaremongering is ludicrous as surely that's how hospitals operate?

Not all you need surplus as peoples illness aren't predictable so having space when you need it is a good thing. This is how Germany keeps ahead of the curve.

 

[kez19]

The job of SAGE should be to provide factual information to help people make the right decisions.

I agree with the sentiment above wholeheartedly.

The job of SAGE should not be to close down sections of the economy on hunches.

Yet isn't the irony of this is that the media, hook, line and sinker on their every word and then seem to pressurise the parliaments to follow their advice?

Maybe a blessing in disguise eventually but I could see a big fallout coming, politicians, advice groups and media collapsing. (at a guess they'll scramble to blame each other)

 

[bramling]

Yet isn't the irony of this is that the media, hook, line and sinker on their every word and then seem to pressurise the parliaments to follow their advice?

Maybe a blessing in disguise eventually but I could see a big fallout coming, politicians, advice groups and media collapsing. (at a guess they'll scramble to blame each other)

There will certainly be a blame game if and when there's some widespread economic consequences which really hit people.

 

[yorksrob]

Yet isn't the irony of this is that the media, hook, line and sinker on their every word and then seem to pressurise the parliaments to follow their advice?

Maybe a blessing in disguise eventually but I could see a big fallout coming, politicians, advice groups and media collapsing. (at a guess they'll scramble to blame each other)

I must admit, I stopped taking a newspaper a few years ago, so I don't feel qualified to comment.

At the time, I still liked the newspaper, but it had gone up to £1.60 daily, which was too much, and the news was all Brexit at the time so I couldn't be bothered.

 

[kez19]

There will certainly be a blame game if and when there's some widespread economic consequences which really hit people.

Oh of course but we know what will happen though, the media will say people are to blame for it! Wasn't it recently quoted i'm sure it was on the forum regarding costs or something similar?

Seems like I found one....

How much is Covid costing the UK and how will we pay?

The pandemic is costing the government hundreds of billions of pounds but where will it all come from?

www.bbc.co.uk

How much will coronavirus cost the UK?​

We won't know how big the final bill will be until after the crisis is over. But the government will certainly have to borrow enormous amounts of money because it is spending more than it is taking in from tax.
On 25 November, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), which keeps tabs on government spending, estimated that borrowing would be £394bn for the current financial year (April 2020 to April 2021).
That's the highest figure ever seen outside wartime.
To put that into context: before the crisis, the government was expecting to borrow about £55bn for the whole financial year.

The NHS and other public services have been given £127bn extra to combat the pandemic, and £66bn will be spent on grants and loans to support businesses.
The government will also raise £100bn less tax than it hoped because of the crisis. Unemployed or furloughed workers pay less income tax, businesses pay less tax if their profits are lower, and shoppers pay less VAT if they buy fewer things.

if any of above has been quoted before apologies!

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The job of SAGE should be to provide factual information to help people make the right decisions.

I agree with the sentiment above wholeheartedly.

The job of SAGE should not be to close down sections of the economy on hunches.

SAGE provide advice to government to eliminate the virus and the likes of Witty openly admit that a balance needs to be struck between how restrictive measures are vs the wider economic consequences from such restrictions. Yes some of them may whinge to the media off line but thats same as politicians do. Johnson has done naff all to look at the other side of the equation over the economic impact and continues to evade his own party on providing evidence because none has been produced. He's the one seeing this as crisis not be wasted in providing perfect air cover for the BREXIT fiasco that is fast approaching.

 

[kez19]

I must admit, I stopped taking a newspaper a few years ago, so I don't feel qualified to comment.

At the time, I still liked the newspaper, but it had gone up to £1.60 daily, which was too much, and the news was all Brexit at the time so I couldn't be bothered.

I'm the same regarding even my local at times - its full of dross most of the time

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Nov 2020 ==

SAGE provide advice to government to eliminate the virus and the likes of Witty openly admit that a balance needs to be struck between how restrictive measures are vs the wider economic consequences from such restrictions. Yes some of them may whinge to the media off line but thats same as politicians do. Johnson has done naff all to look at the other side of the equation over the economic impact and continues to evade his own party on providing evidence because none has been produced. He's the one seeing this as crisis not be wasted in providing perfect air cover for the BREXIT fiasco that is fast approaching.

Yet reality - you can't eliminate a virus can you? Oh look a vaccine for the flu covers you for a year, you get viruses your body fights them then you get on in life (in words of Elton John... "its the circle of life....")

The whole strategy of eliminating a virus - just seems something you do in a computer game ie eliminating opponents, zombies etc or is that the point of it we are in a game/play/simulation and we are the actors?

I thought watching some Japanese Anime from the last decade was all fairytales but yet it seems there must be some truth in that as well!

 

[yorksrob]

SAGE provide advice to government to eliminate the virus and the likes of Witty openly admit that a balance needs to be struck between how restrictive measures are vs the wider economic consequences from such restrictions. Yes some of them may whinge to the media off line but thats same as politicians do. Johnson has done naff all to look at the other side of the equation over the economic impact and continues to evade his own party on providing evidence because none has been produced. He's the one seeing this as crisis not be wasted in providing perfect air cover for the BREXIT fiasco that is fast approaching.

They openly admit a balance needs to be struck, but it seems a bit half hearted. Whenever I've heard these advisors being interviewed, the implications have always been clear - more lockdown for longer.

I'm the same regarding even my local at times - its full of dross most of the time

I loved The Times. Murdoch just jacked the price up too much.

 

[kez19]

They openly admit a balance needs to be struck, but it seems a bit half hearted. Whenever I've heard these advisors being interviewed, the implications have always been clear - more lockdown for longer.

I loved The Times. Murdoch just jacked the price up too much.

You have Times Radio (lol), its free! Its a bit ironic yet people were concerned about Murdoch in terms of media and seems to a degree he must count himself lucky he can't be caught in much of this crossfire!

I would have said RT as an alternative but haven't watched them in ages so don't know if the coverage is still alternative or they have pretty much tagged the line with the UK Government (devolved parliaments of the UK)...

 

[yorksrob]

You have Times Radio (lol), its free! Its a bit ironic yet people were concerned about Murdoch in terms of media and seems to a degree he must count himself lucky he can't be caught in much of this crossfire!

I would have said RT as an alternative but haven't watched them in ages so don't know if the coverage is still alternative or they have pretty much tagged the line with the UK Government (devolved parliaments of the UK)...

I understand Murdoch's background, and was happy with The Times' independance.

It just got too expensive. There was a point when I didn't finish the paper on my commute and I was just paying for stuff I didn't read.

I didn't fall out with The Times.

I can't see myself becoming a viewer of RT.

 

[Mugby]

They openly admit a balance needs to be struck, but it seems a bit half hearted. Whenever I've heard these advisors being interviewed, the implications have always been clear - more lockdown for longer.

Exactly. Professor Whitty in particular seems to be a rather petulant and peevish sort of chap. he wants his own way and he does everything he can to get it, the Government were bounced into the present lockdown by his preposterous 'scenario' of 4.000 deaths per day, something which he should have been vigorously held to account for.
Now, he's making it very clear that he's unhappy with the Christmas relaxations and putting his marker down for another lockdown in the new year which he'll probably support with another false prospectus.

 

[kez19]

I understand Murdoch's background, and was happy with The Times' independance.

It just got too expensive. There was a point when I didn't finish the paper on my commute and I was just paying for stuff I didn't read.

I didn't fall out with The Times.

I can't see myself becoming a viewer of RT.

I could see it as if Murdoch still had a hold on Sky and had given at least an alternative view, people would question his motive but since he hasn't got much influence (personal opinion on this part I mention), he seems pretty much in the clear on that

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Nov 2020 ==

Exactly. Professor Whitty in particular seems to be a rather petulant and peevish sort of chap. he wants his own way and he does everything he can to get it, the Government were bounced into the present lockdown by his preposterous 'scenario' of 4.000 deaths per day, something which he should have been vigorously held to account for.
Now, he's making it very clear that he's unhappy with the Christmas relaxations and putting his marker down for another lockdown in the new year which he'll probably support with another false prospectus.

Maybe Whitty should hire Mystic Meg or Septic Peg (Brian Conley spoof), for the numbers since he pretty much balls it up!

 

[yorksrob]

Exactly. Professor Whitty in particular seems to be a rather petulant and peevish sort of chap. he wants his own way and he does everything he can to get it, the Government were bounced into the present lockdown by his preposterous 'scenario' of 4.000 deaths per day, something which he should have been vigorously held to account for.
Now, he's making it very clear that he's unhappy with the Christmas relaxations and putting his marker down for another lockdown in the new year which he'll probably support with another false prospectus.

In a way, I kind of agree with Whitty that the xmas restrictions will cause problems.

But he and his ilk have always poo poo'd the sensible, sustainable restrictions of the rule of six, socially distanced hospitality etc in favour of lockdown, lockdown and more lockdown, so Whitty and the like have created the demand for the xmas relax.

The inevitable rise in infections will be the fault of SAGE who have effectively created a mass superspreading event through preventing controlled normal activity through December, perpetuating lockdown and causing everyone to converge on a few days over xmas..

 

[C J Snarzell]

Exactly. Professor Whitty in particular seems to be a rather petulant and peevish sort of chap. he wants his own way and he does everything he can to get it, the Government were bounced into the present lockdown by his preposterous 'scenario' of 4.000 deaths per day, something which he should have been vigorously held to account for.
Now, he's making it very clear that he's unhappy with the Christmas relaxations and putting his marker down for another lockdown in the new year which he'll probably support with another false prospectus.

As Whitty is a Scientist, he has a 'black & white' attitude.

One example is alcohol consumption. If you drink more than 14 units a week - Whitty (the Chief Medical Officer) says basically you are misusing alcohol.

This is complete nonscene - I sometimes drink maybe eight pints over the course of a week which probably works out at 22 units but I don't abuse alcohol and I have at least two or three days without drinking so how can this be classed as alcohol misuse?

I wonder how many of the UK population have actually been adhering to the 14 unit guidelines during these lockdowns to cope with the boredom and misery?

CJ

 

[HS2isgood]

There seems to be growing media coverage of general unrest amongst MPs and council leaders in large rural areas of Kent now that the whole county is to go into Tier 3. They are campaigning for a more local approach saying that areas like Tunbridge Wells and Romney Marsh should not be in same Tier as Margate, Isle of Sheppey etc.

I completely agree but also think, welcome to the situation we have had in the north for weeks. The most sparsely populated areas of England in Northumberland in Tier 3 with Newcastle. The same can be said for rural areas of Lancashire, West Yorkshire, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire etc etc. Will anything change now it’s happening down south in Kent?

Aren't Kent MPs all Tories? They can force Boris' hand by threatening not to pass anything unless he backs down Tier 3 (Starmer will pass lockdowns, but not a budget or sth like that, and if most of Kent is on board, they face close to no risk of being deselected)