If HS2 was cancelled?

[Xenophon PCDGS]

How much of the country could me migrated over to ERTMS with £50 billion?

I read this as you were migrating with the £50 billion?

 

[tsangpogorge]

... but the whole point is to get rid of longer-distance express passenger trains so that the current infrastructure can be served with more stopping and semi-fast trains, so there can be better local and regional services. What would the point be in building a dedicated express route and not taking advantage of the freed-up capacity on the older one?

What will be the service pattern of fast trains to London from places like Stoke and Coventry post HS2? Can they still expect the same 3 trains per hour with current journey times maintained?

 

[Comstock]

I'd go for the link to Ireland if it could be delivered with that budget, including all the connecting lines- the only (big) question would be Holyhead-Dublin or Stranraer- Belfast?

 

[MarkyT]

What will be the service pattern of fast trains to London from places like Stoke and Coventry post HS2? Can they still expect the same 3 trains per hour with current journey times maintained?

It's possible Stoke, along with Stafford, Macclesfield and Stockport could get a classic compatible HS service, probably hourly, but perhaps half hourly if a half portion split could be arranged with another destination at Birmingham Interchange. Coventry could lose non-stop pendolinos but may gain a more frequent and evenly spaced limited stop service on the fast lines. using 110MPH stock.

 

[Grimsby town]

To a point I agree I would look at keeping HS2 as far as Crewe but I would still retain full spec HS2 trains for the Birmingham route, you would need to put reasonable amount of money in upgrading the ECML and dealing with such as Welwyn.

Also this might not be a popular choice for many but I think we do need to put more money into our roads and motorways, our motorways were built for the traffic of 40 years ago and the upgrades since then have been little more than tinkering around the edges, so that now some of motorways can barely cope with off peak traffic never mind peak traffic.

The big question we have to consider with transport as well is if we move to electric cars then that reduces some of the pollution impact of roads, and if driverless vehicles without a driver just in case become a viable reality in the next 5 to 10 years as many of those involved are claiming then the argument about the need for public transport for those that cannot drive goes out of the window of course that doesn't solve the congestion problem instead it makes it worse. But for those parts of the country where congestion isn't a big issue maybe the idea of trains and buses becomes a thing of the past and you just take a driverless taxi instead at a much cheaper rate than current taxis.

If driverless cars do become a widespread reality in the next 10 years, and that is a very big if, demand for HS2 is likely to be unaffected. As you say congestion would mean city to city journey times are massively uncompetitive and even with driverless cars I doubt road speeds will be much higher than 70mph.

The only stretches of railway that will be threatened by driverless cars are rural lines with ok road access and slow regional journeys. Commuter rail and highspeed rail will, in my opinion, become more competitive as city centres become less car friendly.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Just a thought, if HS2 was cancelled, what if all the money £50 billion had to be spent on rail projects, reopen the GC? rail tunnel to Ireland? Woodhead?

Why do you think it would be cancelled?
There's no hint of a change of policy.

The Northern Powerhouse does seem to be fading, however, so maybe HS3 (which has never been properly defined) is not going to happen now its main protagonist is out of office.

 

[aiden_g1]

Money existing or not aside... I think the current mainlines could be better invested within a better timeframe.

-Speed up the time-frame for the electrification on the GWML and MML. Bringing forward the current planned completion dates by a few months to a year would have huge benefits on costs and not to mention the future fleet (and speed plans) for the TOCs.

-Upgrading of the ECML overhead wires. The "lightweight" design of this infrastructure is really starting show its flaws on a seemingly much more frequent basis.

-Faster implementation of ERTMS thus to enable the rollout of 140mph line speeds in all possible areas.

-Rid as many of the major known bottlenecks on the GWML MML WCML & ECML thus increasing overall line speed and smoothing out capacity.

-Class 801s or similar for the EMT intercity services on the MML to replace the HSTs and to operate on fully electrified fast services to Nottingham and Sheffield. The Class 222s for the alternate stopper services.

The potential of a few billions remaining could also be invested towards the upgrading of the Transpenine routes that are already planned / station upgrades / smaller regional enhancements outside of London.

We would have an Inter-City railway we could all really be proud of.
A much more swifter and efficient version of our current infrastructure. One that is already serving many more regional areas / local businesses and communites of the UK than HS2 ever be able to do.

 

[Class 170101]

As for an Ireland-Britain link, Dublin to Holyhead would be the best in terms of cities served, as it could easily have links to Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham and London, but it would be by far the longest undersea tunnel ever created or the 4th longest bridge, it'd be a difficult sell. A Belfast-Scotland link would be more sensible but it'd be difficult to have a Dublin-London service that could compete with flying.

It would take years to build.

 

[The Planner]

It's possible Stoke, along with Stafford, Macclesfield and Stockport could get a classic compatible HS service, probably hourly, but perhaps half hourly if a half portion split could be arranged with another destination at Birmingham Interchange. Coventry could lose non-stop pendolinos but may gain a more frequent and evenly spaced limited stop service on the fast lines. using 110MPH stock.

Stafford gets one as part of a Liverpool train. Nothing will split or join at Interchange I suspect.

 

[Comstock]

It would take years to build.

Well so will HS2!

Since this is all pie in the sky (HS2 won't be cancelled IMHO) then there is no harm in dreaming.

This piece (nearly 10 years old now) suggests it would 'only' cost £3.5bn for a north channel bridge. I'm presuming that is just the bridge itself- say 5 billion in todays money but even if you spent as much again on a high speed link to the WCML near Carlisle, stations and rolling stock you'd still have plenty of change from the HS2 pot for the other projects.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/south_of_scotland/6958191.stm

I'm not sure how a London-Carlisle-Stranrear-Belfast journey would compete time wise with a London-Holyhead-Dublin-Belfast one mind you, but I don't think it would be that much further. And you could obviously carry freight and possibly cars over the bridge. If we have more of the pot to spend, we could even have a dual road-rail bridge.

 

[najaB]

All of the below is as I understand it, happy to be corrected.

Money existing or not aside... I think the current mainlines could be better invested within a better timeframe.

-Speed up the time-frame for the electrification on the GWML and MML. Bringing forward the current planned completion dates by a few months to a year would have huge benefits on costs and not to mention the future fleet (and speed plans) for the TOCs.

At this point putting more money into GWML electrification would have little impact - the schedule isn't being driven by costs, but rather by the reality on the ground (or in the ground in many cases).

-Upgrading of the ECML overhead wires. The "lightweight" design of this infrastructure is really starting show its flaws on a seemingly much more frequent basis.

This is already happening. As per above the problem isn't the lack of budget. MML is delayed due to lack of budget so that would benefit.

-Faster implementation of ERTMS thus to enable the rollout of 140mph line speeds in all possible areas.

It's possible that throwing some more money at ERTMS might speed things up, but I'm not clear that budget is the limiting factor for that either.

-Rid as many of the major known bottlenecks on the GWML MML WCML & ECML thus increasing overall line speed and smoothing out capacity.

This is potentially worth doing, but it's not clear that you'd get as good value for money out of putting plasters on the existing network as compared to building completely new lines. Getting rid of the worst bottlenecks will be very expensive and disruptive - this is something that you always need to consider: nobody ends up on a RRB when building new infrastructure.

-Class 801s or similar for the EMT intercity services on the MML to replace the HSTs and to operate on fully electrified fast services to Nottingham and Sheffield. The Class 222s for the alternate stopper services.

There's definitely no budget for this at the moment, so that would be a definite possibility.

 

[158756]

Why do you think it would be cancelled?
There's no hint of a change of policy.

The Northern Powerhouse does seem to be fading, however, so maybe HS3 (which has never been properly defined) is not going to happen now its main protagonist is out of office.

HS2 has been linked many times to the Northern Powerhouse, and if all traces of it must go then HS2 north of Birmingham must be at risk, especially the leg with the expensive tunnel under Osborne's supposedly favoured city. There have already been rumours this summer that the western leg is to be axed.

 

[HSTEd]

For a totally left field suggestion - something along the lines of the Grand Contour Canal

 

[The Planner]

It will get to Crewe and dont you mean the eastern leg?

 

[Domh245]

I read this as you were migrating with the £50 billion?

If I had the £50bn, I think emigrating (although perhaps fleeing might be a better way of doing it) to the Cayman Isles would be near the top of my priorities

 

[clc]

The bits of EGIP that were cut
Inverkeithing - Perth
Bridge of Weir
Peterhead
Renfrew
GARL
EARL
Portpatrick

Ok, one of those was clearly tongue in cheek - as if they'd ever reopen Peterhead!

 

[caliwag]

If, as has recently been reported in the I newspaper, as many as 75% of companies, post Brexit, (I assume they mean large multi national ones!) are considering relocating their head offices to the Republic (for obvious financial and EU reasons), then a new fixed link between UK and Ireland is a no brainer...bet there are plans gathering dust in a drawer somewhere!

 

[SS4]

I'd use it to give favourable concessions to Virgin so when my political life is over I can have a nice, well-paid, non-executive position as a retirement fund. Then I can hire my mates as consultants for an exorbitant fee - in exchange for them supporting my political career and a possible kickback down the line. With anything left over I would donate to the Party for a peerage - I've always fancied being called Lord.

All of the above would naturally take place whilst I tell the public that we are in a time of austerity which is why the NHS must be privatised, the welfare state must be dismantled and anyone on benefits is a work-shy who has sky tv and goes abroad each year at YOUR expense

Now, where is my Tory party card?

 

[MarkyT]

. . . anyone on benefits is a work-shy who has SKY TV

Appalling, they should be on Virgin media instead!

 

[cjmillsnun]

I didn't suggest don't build HS2 at all. I am suggesting that HS2 from London to Birmingham (New St not Curzon St) and Crewe, with links to the Midland line via Burton and the North Staffs line via Stoke, will suffice in addressing the capacity problems. This is essentially phase 1 of the project. More than that is not required in my opinion. For example, 2 tph London-Manchester doesn't justify the massive disruption and cost of building a semi-underground line though South Manchester.

HS2 to New Street would be a disaster. Where would it go? The lines in are at capacity as it is. Are you wanting to tunnel below the current station?

 

[fowler9]

According to the Financial Times the Eurostar has an 80% market share on London-Paris and London-Brussels lines. There have been teething issues with the Channel Tunnel but it's definitely come on to its own now.

As for an Ireland-Britain link, Dublin to Holyhead would be the best in terms of cities served, as it could easily have links to Liverpool, Manchester, Birmingham and London, but it would be by far the longest undersea tunnel ever created or the 4th longest bridge, it'd be a difficult sell. A Belfast-Scotland link would be more sensible but it'd be difficult to have a Dublin-London service that could compete with flying.

A Dublin to Holyhead tunnel wouldn't even compete with Dublin to Liverpool flying, let alone Dublin to London.

 

[Rich McLean]

HS2 to New Street would be a disaster. Where would it go? The lines in are at capacity as it is. Are you wanting to tunnel below the current station?

This

Birmingham New Street - Proof House - Birmingham International is full and there are no spare paths. It's bad enough trying to get Ad-hoc ECS movements via the Proof House Jn area, with the preferred option sometimes to shunt units into the through roads until capacity becomes available in order not to block the platforms. In an ideal world, the eastern throat having an extra pair of tracks would go a long way, but that's a pipe dream.

New underground platforms (under the current platforms), long underground tunnels from as far back as International would need to be built all the way in, without any conflicting junctions in order for HS2 to serve New Street without effecting current capacity limits. A new HS2 interchange under new street would be ridiculously expensive and unpleasant.

Curzon Street allows more flexibility, with the Metro planned to link Snow Hill, New Street, Moor Street and Curzon Street combined

 

[Comstock]

A Dublin to Holyhead tunnel wouldn't even compete with Dublin to Liverpool flying, let alone Dublin to London.

You are forgetting two things.

1) Neither Dublin airport nor Liverpool John Lennon are in the city centre.

2) I'm pretty sure a Liverpool to Dublin flight would be classed as international. If so it might have a two hour check in time, or in any event a longer check in time than a tunnel journey.

 

[deltic]

Give £2bn to each of the largest 25 cities to build or expand light rail/tram schemes taking over local rail lines and freeing up capacity for more inter-urban services

 

[najaB]

2) I'm pretty sure a Liverpool to Dublin flight would be classed as international.

It is international, but the UK and the Republic of Ireland are in the Common Travel Area so there are no immigration checks. As such the check in times are as per domestic flights.

 

[Comstock]

It is international, but the UK and the Republic of Ireland are in the Common Travel Area so there are no immigration checks. As such the check in times are as per domestic flights.

Happy to stand corrected on that

Of course the lack of immigration checks would be a bonus for tunnel travelers too. You'd probably want to do airline style security checks on tunnel travelers though, because the tunnel might become a high profile target for terrorists-at least in the current climate.

Given that this is decades away, this is all moot of course. Who knows what the immigration rules and terror threats will be in the late 21st century.......
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Give £2bn to each of the largest 25 cities to build or expand light rail/tram schemes taking over local rail lines and freeing up capacity for more inter-urban services

Good call. Hopefully Derby (sitting in 29th place according to Wiki) will be able to nick a bit of Nottinghams cash to get on the tram

 

[daodao]

HS2 to New Street would be a disaster. Where would it go? The lines in are at capacity as it is. Are you wanting to tunnel below the current station?

The London HS2 services would presumably be replacing the existing 3 tph fast trains to London, with intermediate stations towards Coventry and beyond served by existing LM EMU services. If fast HS2 services were introduced to Liverpool and Manchester (say 1 tph each), these could replace the XC services between Manchester and Birmingham, with LM EMUs running 1 tph each to Liverpool (via Crewe) and Manchester (via Stoke) in the existing paths out of New St for the LM class 350 EMUs from Birmingham to Liverpool. Thus no more trains into New Street.

 

[Deerfold]

It is international, but the UK and the Republic of Ireland are in the Common Travel Area

At the moment. By the time a bridge was built we may well not be.

 

[HSTEd]

A bridge (rather than a rail only tunnel) would certainly destroy the Ireland-UK Air Market through a combination of high speed train travel options mixed with the flexibility of simply driving.

It would wreck the ferry market at least, no matter what route was chosen.

 

[Bletchleyite]

A bridge (rather than a rail only tunnel) would certainly destroy the Ireland-UK Air Market through a combination of high speed train travel options mixed with the flexibility of simply driving.

I doubt it would destroy air, there are after all still plenty of flights to both Paris and Brussels. It would destroy ferries, though.