To the scrapyard? If the IEP has been introduced they will no longer be needed.
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IEP Annoucement
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RobShipway
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Doh..........First do have a wildcard here though: The franchise runs until 2013 with a 3 year extension to 2016. First can decide not to accept the extension and so force the dft to retender for the new franchise in 2013. This new franchise is planned to run for at least 15 years and as First can still threaten to take their HSTs with them if they lose they would be almost certain to retain the franchise so FGW stays until at least 2028.
Well where will they go then?
Nym
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TPE North?
route:oxford
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Compulsary purchase order?
You can be sure that a way would be found to deliver stock capable of covering the diagrams.
Loco+LHCS+DVT on the slows from Oxford/Newbury, releasing Thames Turbos back on to the Oxford+Cotswold Semi-Fasts+Fasts?
XC usually have at least two HSTs in warm storage...
Arent they having them on west of england services after IEP?
Well, I challenge anybody to demonstrate how the FGW franchise can be run from 2013 without infringing at least one of these criteria:
1) without their HSTs
2) to the current schedules
3) with stock already in service or on order for delivery by that date, and
4) without stripping another TOC of suitable stock.
Seems to me that FGW could have a winning hand.
p.s. debugged Coradias?
I don't think HSTs would be the right sort of stock for TPE North (or TPE anything for that matter), the only positive is the capacity they bring. Otherwise the have the wrong door layout for the service (at peak times you need those big doors), their top speed is wasted everywhere bar York to Newcastle (or Northallerton if on a Boro working), TPE have quite a few stops on most services (sometimes quite close together) so MUs make more sense and I'm not sure how the acceleration stacks up but 185s are no slouches so would a HST be able to keep up?
The enthusiast in me would like to see HSTs on TPE (heck the enthusiast on me would like HSTs on my local Darlington to Saltburn service
) but realistically I don't think HSTs make sense on TPE.Not extra HSTs they aren't. They don't need any more to run the existing service and as far as I'm aware there isn't going to be a sudden increase in the number of services running down to places like Penzance so there isn't going to be a need for more HSTs. I think Zoe was right when she said that these released HSTs might well go for scrap.
I don't think HSTs would be the right sort of stock for TPE North (or TPE anything for that matter), the only positive is the capacity they bring. Otherwise the have the wrong door layout for the service (at peak times you need those big doors), their top speed is wasted everywhere bar York to Newcastle (or Northallerton if on a Boro working), TPE have quite a few stops on most services (sometimes quite close together) so MUs make more sense and I'm not sure how the acceleration stacks up but 185s are no slouches so would a HST be able to keep up?
The enthusiast in me would like to see HSTs on TPE (heck the enthusiast on me would like HSTs on my local Darlington to Saltburn service
Not extra HSTs they aren't. They don't need any more to run the existing service and as far as I'm aware there isn't going to be a sudden increase in the number of services running down to places like Penzance so there isn't going to be a need for more HSTs. I think Zoe was right when she said that these released HSTs might well go for scrap.
I think Zoe has a much more plausible logic (Zoe: congratulations on this bit of research) which suggests FGW may be in a strong position re tactics and stock availability.
Oh I agree with Zoe's logic completely it will be interesting to see how it plays out as theoretically FGW hold pretty much all the cards when it comes time to re-let the franchise. But the point about what happens to the HSTs still stands come 2016 onwards IEP arrives and there are going to be spare HST sets available.
tom1649
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Sorry if this has already been mentioned, but couldn't the Welsh Assembly fund an extension of the electrification from Cardiff to Swansea if it wanted to? Is this a possibility?
As I said though, First have a wildcard in that they can force the dft to retender in 2013, the franchise would be for at least 15 years and First would be almost certain to win it.
Ah wait I've gone back read the thread again I realised that the discussion relating to HSTs was only about if First didn't regain the franchise (which if first are clever they will) so I understand what's going on now. Sorry 
Yes, if First wait until 2016 it's possible that there will be enough IEP units in service that their HSTs will not be needed. By having the franchise retendered in 2013 they are quite within their rights to say "If you don't give us the franchise we will have our HSTs scrapped" and so the dft would have no option but to give the new 15 year franchise to First.Ah wait I've gone back read the thread again I realised that the discussion relating to HSTs was only about if First didn't regain the franchise (which if first are clever they will) so I understand what's going on now. Sorry
swt_passenger
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The "it's my ball and I'm going home" sort of approach?
I suggest if they said anything remotely like that, DfT would have no choice but to refuse their application.
The dft could not afford to though. They need the HSTs in service.
If the numbers I've found are correct, First Rail Holdings own 12 Class 43s. That's a maximum of 6 HST sets.
With 5 Class 180s likely to be available, it is not insurmountable for a retendering of the the Greater Western franchise to come very close to the existing Service Level Commitment.
Perhaps it would make sense for the DfT to offer a short, interim 3 year franchise from 2013-2016 until IEP and electrification is ready. That's if First Group don't want, or aren't offered the extension. Then a full 15 year franchise can be tendered based on the new rolling stock.
I don't believe the issue of the First owned power cars is quite the ace in the hole that many think it is.
With 5 Class 180s likely to be available, it is not insurmountable for a retendering of the the Greater Western franchise to come very close to the existing Service Level Commitment.
Perhaps it would make sense for the DfT to offer a short, interim 3 year franchise from 2013-2016 until IEP and electrification is ready. That's if First Group don't want, or aren't offered the extension. Then a full 15 year franchise can be tendered based on the new rolling stock.
I don't believe the issue of the First owned power cars is quite the ace in the hole that many think it is.
tbtc
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If owning a few 1970s trains is sufficient "wildcard" to secure a lucrative fifteen year contract then this shows how important stock ownership is, as well as saving a lot of money over the "life" of stock
Good point, so far the only other company I know that own stock is Stagecoach for the Islane Line.
That's not a secret either, the implications of their ownership are widely known. I seem to remember someone saying the dft were not very impressed when they discovered First had purchased the HSTs and the implications of this.
route:oxford
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I'd forgotten about them.
By 2013, won't the Chiltern Service be operating from Oxford?
A Chiltern Clubman operating every half hour to Marylebone, plus a 5 car 180 every 30 mins on the Paddington route would still give more fast seats per hour going to London than the current service.
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