HS2 - the case for a review

[PR1Berske]

Does anyone think HS2 will be it, forever? That it doesn't help people in Brighton, Norwich or Plymouth?

Or that if we got on and built HS2, we'd then be on to HS3 to the West, HS4 to the easy, HS5 to the south?

We need more capacity anyway, and as we build new housing on green belt we'll need new stations in areas not served by rail today.

Wrong.

We need a review into this project because it's not needed. Capacity is a red herring: we've reached peak passenger numbers on some parts of the network and now numbers are falling. There's a reason anti HS2 campaigners post photos of empty WCML trains; it's evidence that HS2 is not needed for the reasons we've been sold.

HS2 only helps London Euston. It's designed that way. If there's no review into how it benefits Plymouth or Hull or Wrexham or Barrow (clue: it doesn't help them at all) then we're blindly funding a new London expressway without rhyme or reason.

 

[deltic]

Wrong.

We need a review into this project because it's not needed. Capacity is a red herring: we've reached peak passenger numbers on some parts of the network and now numbers are falling. There's a reason anti HS2 campaigners post photos of empty WCML trains; it's evidence that HS2 is not needed for the reasons we've been sold.

HS2 only helps London Euston. It's designed that way. If there's no review into how it benefits Plymouth or Hull or Wrexham or Barrow (clue: it doesn't help them at all) then we're blindly funding a new London expressway without rhyme or reason.

Presumably you are opposed to EGIP on the grounds that it does not benefit Plymouth or Hull or Wrexham or Barrow?

In fact HS2 will potentially benefit all 4 locations - through changes to cross country services, faster services via connections to Wrexham and Barrow and ability to recast services on ECML in relation to Hull.

I agree the main beneficiary will be London and in particular commuter services.

 

[Altfish]

As a confirmed northerner, I was amazed when I sat on Bletchley station (on a Saturday) waiting for my connection to Milton Keynes how frequent Pendolinos, stoppers, freight and other workings were. It was obviously functioning at or very near capacity.
The same can be said for other sections of the line, Stockport Viaduct comes to mind.

If we do not build HS2 something still has to be done to relieve the WCML and the ECML (not sure how busy the MML is) - as I see it all options are worse than HS2.

 

[The Planner]

That is such a daft reason, if we cannot build infrastructure because it doesnt benefit everyone then we might as all pack up and go home now. Can we please therefore stop electrification on the GW, obviously anything in the North such as Lime St resignalling, Weaver Wavertree, Northern Hub, and of course how dare anyone in London and the South East get anything....

 

[Geezertronic]

Wrong

Proof?

 

[Hadders]

Wrong.

We need a review into this project because it's not needed. Capacity is a red herring: we've reached peak passenger numbers on some parts of the network and now numbers are falling. There's a reason anti HS2 campaigners post photos of empty WCML trains; it's evidence that HS2 is not needed for the reasons we've been sold.

HS2 only helps London Euston. It's designed that way. If there's no review into how it benefits Plymouth or Hull or Wrexham or Barrow (clue: it doesn't help them at all) then we're blindly funding a new London expressway without rhyme or reason.

Where are passenger numbers falling? Certainly not on the trains I catch.

My local line is the ECML into King Cross. If you believe we don't need the capacity then I suggest you catch a train towards London in the morning peak. No more trains can be run as the line is at capacity.

Now, for example, take the Leeds services out of Kings Cross and run them on HS2. Leeds gets a faster service but you also free up paths on the ECML to run more services to other places.

 

[The Ham]

Empty trains can be easy to take photos of, I've got one of what appears to be an empty underground coach taking at Waterloo on the Northern Line, is just taken at a time when not many were on that part of the train and the few that were are by the doors and not visible in the shot.

Anyway, once all WCML trains are full then it is far too late to start building the replacement.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Also, falling? Really? Certainly not on the West Midlands to London routes where that went up by 6.8% between the last two years of data:

https://dataportal.orr.gov.uk/displayreport/report/html/cbedb3c6-f390-4769-91d2-5509ce9aa15e

If only HS2 was going to meet that demand by having stations in that area!

(OK, I know the West Midlands is more than Birmingham, but with above the national average of growth there must be some people who would benefit from HS2 within Birmingham as it is the largest population in the area so it is likely that some will be traveling from there. Although I think it's more likely that a reasonable number of those extras people would be from Birmingham and therefore are likely to benefit. However these figures also have to be viewed in the back drop of HS2 basing Birmingham to London growth on 1%, so even if 4.8% growth was from other locations other than those where HS2 would benefit that's still 2% growth from those that would benefit which is double the expected growth.

 

[Phil.]

Where are passenger numbers falling? Certainly not on the trains I catch.

My local line is the ECML into King Cross. If you believe we don't need the capacity then I suggest you catch a train towards London in the morning peak. No more trains can be run as the line is at capacity.

Now, for example, take the Leeds services out of Kings Cross and run them on HS2. Leeds gets a faster service but you also free up paths on the ECML to run more services to other places.

And if I want to travel from Peterborough to Leeds?

 

[HSTEd]

And if I want to travel from Peterborough to Leeds?

Then you get onto a rump ECML train.
I am not sure why this is hard to understand.

 

[PR1Berske]

Then you get onto a rump ECML train.
I am not sure why this is hard to understand.

So the choice is "brand new multi million train if you're a Londoner , or rump cutoffs if not"

Got it.

 

[The Planner]

So IEPs will be rump cutoffs by then? At the age of, what, 16 years old?

 

[tbtc]

It'd be nice if we could split the "HS2 is bad" arguments from the factual threads about the reviews/ design/ service patterns etc - every time a thread gets beyond a handful of posts, it ends up descending into a "for or against" debate.

How come we don't have the same petty "this doesn't directly serve my suburb therefore I'm against it" arguments about other infrastructure schemes (other than Crossrail)? Electrification to Bromsgrove won't help me in Sheffield, but it doesn't mean I'm against it!

If we do not build HS2 something still has to be done to relieve the WCML and the ECML (not sure how busy the MML is) - as I see it all options are worse than HS2.

Totally agreed!

I really don't know what the realistic alternative is (beyond some sci-fi stuff about how by the 2030s we'll all be working from home and nobody will have to travel anywhere ).

And if I want to travel from Peterborough to Leeds?

Then you get onto a rump ECML train.
I am not sure why this is hard to understand.

...except that, with fewer "fast London" services required on the southern ECML, the Peterborough - Leeds service could be part of something like a Stansted - Cambridge - Peterborough - Doncaster - Leeds service - providing new links on a line that currently needs all of its capacity just to serve the London market.

Instead of Peterborough being an interchange between East Anglia and "The North", we could have direct services between such places (also stopping at Peterborough).

You could also afford to stop the vast majority of ECML services at Peterborough, rather than currently running through non stop as a number of them have to (e.g. many Scottish services omit Peterborough).

This would also allow "rump" services to provide a better local service at other stations - e.g. at the moment there's only one train most hours from Grantham to Newark, as many services only have time to stop at one or t'other (before getting caught up by a "first stop York" service coming up at 125mph behind them).

Same goes for other "main lines" (e.g. if the "fast" services from London/ Birmingham to Sheffield run via HS2 to Meadowhall then that frees up space for stations at places like Clay Cross, which there's no capacity for services to currently serve).

 

[The Ham]

So the choice is "brand new multi million train if you're a Londoner , or rump cutoffs if not"

Got it.

HS2 will be like the M1 and the "rump" services will be like the A1, when the M1 first opened the numbers of people using the A1 dropped as those doing long distance journeys switched to the new road. Did those using the old road complain that they didn't have a nice new road to drive on? No, for the simple reason that loads of traffic disappeared overnight making it much more pleasant to drive along the A1 and removing a lot of congestion. In the same way the "rump" services will still need to run they will just be less busy (some like the Flying Scotsman and those which don't stop south of the HS2 stations will disappear from the classic lines, probably to be replaced by new services). As such those who would still use the classic lines will find it easier to use their services as there would be less passengers using their trains).

In the same way the "rump" services will still be run by multi million pound trains some of which (in the case of ECML) which as yet are to be introduced and so will be fairly new (about 15 years old in 2033). However even Londoners will still need to use the "old" trains.

(on an aside, after HS2 has been open for some time the classic trains [in the case of the 390's possibly just 10 years after HS2 phase 2 is opened] would need to be replaced and then HS2 will have the older trains meaning that the "rump" services will have new trains and those on HS2 will not)

 

[HSTEd]

You could have IEPs doing clockface London-Stevenage-Peterborough-Grantham-Newark-Retford-Doncaster-Wakefield Westgate-Leeds (or Doncaster-York) far more regularly than they do now.

Two trains per hour on each of those two routes for example. Sure some of the journey times are a bit longer but it is far more useful to people doing intermediate journies.

 

[Geezertronic]

So the choice is "brand new multi million train if you're a Londoner , or rump cutoffs if not"

Got it.

What about the brand new multi million pound trains that were introduced on the WCML not so long ago (390s/221s)?

What about the brand new multi million pound trains that were introduced on what was VXC towards the turn of the century (220/221s)

What about the brand new multi million pound trains that were introduced on the MML not so long ago (222s)

What about the brand new multi million pound trains that will be introduced on the ECML & GWML soon (800s)

What about the brand new multi million pound trains that are in the process of being introduced on Thameslink (700s)?

That is even before the brand new multi million pound trains such as the 350s, 380s etc...

Got it? I doubt you have to be honest...

Please excuse any mistakes in the above

 

[The Ham]

So the choice is "brand new multi million train if you're a Londoner , or rump cutoffs if not"

Got it.

Typical of London , always getting new trains and other places never doing so, even the new Northern and TPE franchises won't .... oh hang on my mistake, no they are getting new trains which will not ever get to London (as part of those franchises, they may do at some other period in their life - as cast offs mind) whilst Chiltern (which will see regular service into London) have TPE's cast offs!

 

[miami]

Wrong.

We need a review into this project because it's not needed. Capacity is a red herring: we've reached peak passenger numbers on some parts of the network and now numbers are falling. There's a reason anti HS2 campaigners post photos of empty WCML trains; it's evidence that HS2 is not needed for the reasons we've been sold.

Empty WCML trains are only empty at peak times. If I get a train from London, if I can't get the 1840 I tend to stay in London until 2140, because at 1900 the whole world drops on to the trains heading north.

Likewise I ensure I'm on an arrival before 1130 otherwise I go another day.

The demand is there, but the prices are based on extracting maximum amount of money, not on most efficent use of the trains.

HS2 only helps London Euston. It's designed that way. If there's no review into how it benefits Plymouth or Hull or Wrexham or Barrow (clue: it doesn't help them at all) then we're blindly funding a new London expressway without rhyme or reason.

How does the A556 dualing help Plymouth, Hull, Wrexham, Barrow, Glasgow, Cardiff, Bangor, Inverness, Belfast, or London? Or SEMMS? How does Crossrail or Thameslink or East-West Rail or GOBLIN electrification help Plymouth, Hull, Wrexham, Barrow, Glasgow, Cardiff, Bangor, Inverness, Belfast, or Manchester? How does Trans-Pennine electrification help Plymouth, Birmingham, London, Cambridge, Glasgow, Cardiff, Bangor, Inverness or Belfast?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

What about the brand new multi million pound trains that were introduced on the WCML not so long ago (390s/221s)?

Horrendous things, bought as punishment for those wanting to leave London.

 

[quantinghome]

The demand is there, but the prices are based on extracting maximum amount of money, not on most efficent use of the trains.

I suspect the most efficient way to set fares would also be the one that extracts the most money - probably a full-on airline-style yield management system, given the fixed costs of railway assets and the relative inability to increase capacity at peak times. I admit this probably isn't everyone's cup of tea, but it's probably the most efficient.

The current inefficiency is due to the massive gap between the unregulated turn-up peak fares and the regulated off-peak fares, so you get a crazy situation at the peak shoulders. Not sure what the solution is without ditching turn-up fares altogether, or dropping peak fares (reducing revenue and therefore premiums to government), or increasing off peak fares which wouldn't be at all popular.

 

[miami]

I suspect the most efficient way to set fares would also be the one that extracts the most money - probably a full-on airline-style yield management system, given the fixed costs of railway assets and the relative inability to increase capacity at peak times. I admit this probably isn't everyone's cup of tea, but it's probably the most efficient.

The current inefficiency is due to the massive gap between the unregulated turn-up peak fares and the regulated off-peak fares, so you get a crazy situation at the peak shoulders. Not sure what the solution is without ditching turn-up fares altogether, or dropping peak fares (reducing revenue and therefore premiums to government), or increasing off peak fares which wouldn't be at all popular.

Depends on what the train is for. Is it for maximum amount of money being extracted, or is it to transport the maximum amount of people.

1) You could allow those on full-fare tickets to travel in first class on the 1900-2100 services
2) Sell cheaper advanced tickets in the peak, especially on the 1800-1900 departures -- I know the 1840 on Monday will be mostly empty, so why is it £80 one way when the 1900 is £40 one way and flexible to boot.
3) Sell flexible off peak first class fares for say 50% more than flexible off peak standard class fares
4) Sell "evening-first" upgrades for off-peak trains - perhaps £20 for holders of full tickets, £50 for holders of offpeak tickets, £100 for holders of advanced tickets

It's my experience that aside from the peaks, the trains in standard from Manchester are relatively busy throughout the day. The near turn-up-and-go service is very beneficial to people too.

There are a lot of trains from Euston, especially in the peak, that run non-stop or one-stop to Crewe - and on to Chester, Liverpool, Manchester, or through crewe and on to Lancaster and beyond. Those could be converted to slower stopping trains, adding 30 minutes to the end-to-end journey, giving an increase in service for Watford, MK, Rugby, The Trent Valley and Stafford.

 

[notlob.divad]

dropping peak fares (reducing revenue and therefore premiums to government)

Peak fares are only producing revenue if they are being paid. If the trains are empty at peak times, people are not paying peak fares. Therefore reducing them will not reduce revenue.

If you reduce the peak fares to the point where people are more willing to pay them, then how many people will you need to move from the off peak service to offset any loss you might get from the handful of people who are happy to pay for them?


Just to add into this discussion. I found out the other day that my company (International manufacturer based in the North West) has put a ban on any First Class rail travel. In the past if we had to go to London for training courses / seminars / visit embassy to get visas sorted. We where all entitled to travel First Class. They have now decided that it is too expensive to have that policy and we are to travel in standard irrespective of the cost difference, how far in advance it is booked or whether we are travelling in the peak or off peak. I wonder if this is a wider trend with the ongoing cost cutting across the UK economy, and if this will have any impact upon the costing for long distance / HS2 ticketing in the future.

 

[Chester1]

Peak fares are only producing revenue if they are being paid. If the trains are empty at peak times, people are not paying peak fares. Therefore reducing them will not reduce revenue.

If you reduce the peak fares to the point where people are more willing to pay them, then how many people will you need to move from the off peak service to offset any loss you might get from the handful of people who are happy to pay for them?


Just to add into this discussion. I found out the other day that my company (International manufacturer based in the North West) has put a ban on any First Class rail travel. In the past if we had to go to London for training courses / seminars / visit embassy to get visas sorted. We where all entitled to travel First Class. They have now decided that it is too expensive to have that policy and we are to travel in standard irrespective of the cost difference, how far in advance it is booked or whether we are travelling in the peak or off peak. I wonder if this is a wider trend with the ongoing cost cutting across the UK economy, and if this will have any impact upon the costing for long distance / HS2 ticketing in the future.

To maximise usage the best bet would be to make peak time journeys advanced ticket and season tickets only, with them being for sale until a few minutes before a train departs its first station. If an advance peak ticket was half the price of an open off peak return then it would cause a huge move of passengers to peak time services but crucially the risk of overcrowding would be very low if the opperators correctly guess how many seats to leave unreserved for season ticket users. Not going to happen unless the DfT force mainline TOCs to do it through writing it into future franchise agreements. In the run up to 2026 the WCML and ECML will be bursting at the seams, something will have to be done to spread capacity much better.

Most companies and the public sector have banned claiming first class tickets on expenses, most after the credit crunch. Its the main reason why the WCML 5+4 standard class vs first class coach balance became absurd, it was probably a good balance when the vast majority of business users could claim for first class.

 

[Harbornite]

Wrong.

We need a review into this project because it's not needed. Capacity is a red herring: we've reached peak passenger numbers on some parts of the network and now numbers are falling. There's a reason anti HS2 campaigners post photos of empty WCML trains; it's evidence that HS2 is not needed for the reasons we've been sold.

HS2 only helps London Euston. It's designed that way. If there's no review into how it benefits Plymouth or Hull or Wrexham or Barrow (clue: it doesn't help them at all) then we're blindly funding a new London expressway without rhyme or reason.

That's like saying the M5 shouldn't have been built because it doesn't serve Scotland.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

So the choice is "brand new multi million train if you're a Londoner , or rump cutoffs if not"

Got it.

Looks like I dreaming, so TPE aren't getting new loco hauled stock, AT300's, CAF DMUs and Northern aren't getting new CAF EMU's or DMU's...

Did you even bother thinking before you typed this crap?

 

[Ianno87]

There are a lot of trains from Euston, especially in the peak, that run non-stop or one-stop to Crewe - and on to Chester, Liverpool, Manchester, or through crewe and on to Lancaster and beyond. Those could be converted to slower stopping trains, adding 30 minutes to the end-to-end journey, giving an increase in service for Watford, MK, Rugby, The Trent Valley and Stafford.

Shame there are only 56 Pendolinos. Adding 30 minutes into the northbound journey will bust all the diagrams....

Part of the point of the prevalence of long distance non-stop (thus fast) runs on the WCML is to get the best possible rolling stock use (and train service frequency) out of a limited fleet.

 

[Envy123]

The London effect of house prices has already rippled to the Home Counties and even Rugby and Coventry are expensive now. The UK economy is still very much London-centric, despite some big companies like RBS and the BBC setting up employment opportunities outside of London.

People actually commute daily on Virgin Trains from places like Stoke, Stafford, Crewe and even Runcorn to London - all to take advantage of lower house prices and keeping a high-paying job in London. As I observe the inter-city trains getting fuller as time goes by, I always think that HS2 cannot come fast enough.

 

[miami]

Peak fares are only producing revenue if they are being paid. If the trains are empty at peak times, people are not paying peak fares. Therefore reducing them will not reduce revenue.

If you fill the a 80 seat carriage with 30 people paying £160 one way (peak time cost London->Manchester), that's a total revenue of £4800, and everyone travelling in comfort.

If instead you sell 100 tickets at £40 one way (offpeak cost London->Manchester), you end up with total revenue of £4000 and 20 people standing in an overcrowded carriage.

I wonder if this is a wider trend with the ongoing cost cutting across the UK economy, and if this will have any impact upon the costing for long distance / HS2 ticketing in the future.

It's been going on for years.

 

[Chester1]

The London effect of house prices has already rippled to the Home Counties and even Rugby and Coventry are expensive now. The UK economy is still very much London-centric, despite some big companies like RBS and the BBC setting up employment opportunities outside of London.

People actually commute daily on Virgin Trains from places like Stoke, Stafford, Crewe and even Runcorn to London - all to take advantage of lower house prices and keeping a high-paying job in London. As I observe the inter-city trains getting fuller as time goes by, I always think that HS2 cannot come fast enough.

HS2 will not have unlimited capacity. At most it will have slightly less seats than the WCML (South of Crewe), MML (South of Kettering) and ECML (South of York) combined. At current growth rates we will be roughly back to the current position even if it is completed on time in 2033. With one franchise holder and a relatively uniform fleet i.e 100-110mph Class 350s, better signalling and all services being 12 cars there would be some more seats for commuters but very little in the grand scheme of things - maybe 2000 a peak hour tops for the WCML.

On a personal note, I am moving from Chester to Manchester very soon. I like London but a decent standard of living is not affordable and costs are still rising. Manchester is booming and along with Birmingham, it has 90% of the things London has but at a much lower cost. A new(ish) two bedroom flat within walking distance of Victoria and Piccadilly goes for £165-175,000, there is not a decent area in the London Boroughs were you could buy something comparable at that cost. Terraces in safe but run down areas of Greater Manchester with good metrolink and or bus connections often go for less than £100,000. Different world!

 

[Envy123]

HS2 will not have unlimited capacity. At most it will have slightly less seats than the WCML (South of Crewe), MML (South of Kettering) and ECML (South of York) combined. At current growth rates we will be roughly back to the current position even if it is completed on time in 2033. With one franchise holder and a relatively uniform fleet i.e 100-110mph Class 350s, better signalling and all services being 12 cars there would be some more seats for commuters but very little in the grand scheme of things - maybe 2000 a peak hour tops for the WCML.

On a personal note, I am moving from Chester to Manchester very soon. I like London but a decent standard of living is not affordable and costs are still rising. Manchester is booming and along with Birmingham, it has 90% of the things London has but at a much lower cost. A new(ish) two bedroom flat within walking distance of Victoria and Piccadilly goes for £165-175,000, there is not a decent area in the London Boroughs were you could buy something comparable at that cost. Terraces in safe but run down areas of Greater Manchester with good metrolink and or bus connections often go for less than £100,000. Different world!

HS2 could encourage people to reverse-commute as well, but whether we will have large employment hubs up north is a different matter altogether.

I agree with you regarding Manchester. If I didn't have so many ties to London, I'd move there in a heartbeat. But my relative is working in luxury retail and there is no branch of her work up north, and VT would probably wipe out 98% of her salary anyway.

There-in lies the catch-22. Struggling to get by in London but can't move out to a cheaper and nicer area than I am living now. HS2 would help immensely with going the full move with travel times, but probably not the fares.

 

[miami]

HS2 will not have unlimited capacity. At most it will have slightly less

Slightly fewer

 

[Chester1]

HS2 could encourage people to reverse-commute as well, but whether we will have large employment hubs up north is a different matter altogether.

I agree with you regarding Manchester. If I didn't have so many ties to London, I'd move there in a heartbeat. But my relative is working in luxury retail and there is no branch of her work up north, and VT would probably wipe out 98% of her salary anyway.

There-in lies the catch-22. Struggling to get by in London but can't move out to a cheaper and nicer area than I am living now. HS2 would help immensely with going the full move with travel times, but probably not the fares.

I am sympathetic to your personal situation. That said, I am sick of hearing Londoners who could move whinge about living costs and house prices, they want to have their cake and eat it. Your situation is a clear example of being tied London but there are few other sectors that is actually the case. What most people actually mean is it would damage their career a little bit. I lived in London for a few months and was astounded by how ignorant many Londoners were about the rest of the UK. I had very well paid collegues refer to Birmingham as being in the North and one even seriously asked me if I needed a passport to go to Wales.

I think Crewe/Stoke-Stockport-Manchester will become much more commuter focused but I dont think many people will commute to Manchester from further south.

 

[HSTEd]

HS2 will not have unlimited capacity. At most it will have slightly less seats than the WCML (South of Crewe), MML (South of Kettering) and ECML (South of York) combined.

That depends on how you lay the trains out and what capacity you set for.
If you set for maximum capacity and only allowed 400m formations south of Birmingham International, and made all captive services formed of a single 400m long double deck unit then the capacities get huge.
At 1000 seats for a classic compatible lashup and ~1350 for a double deck formation you could expect something like 22,200 seats per hour. [12 captive, six classic]

Which is something like 37 11-car Pendos per hour.
It truly is a lot.