HS2 - the case for a review

[najaB]

But you seem to think platforms can only be lengthened once. I don't understand why that would be. But on the information available, there is no current need to lengthen ICWC platforms.

There's a limit to how long you can make the platforms before you start running into structures, S&C, etc. Many stations are already at or very close to that limit.

Did extending London - Wolverhampton trains to Scotland require a full rewrite of the southern WCML timetable?

No, because they tacked two existing services onto each other, with a 14(ish) minute wait at Wolverhampton. Good luck getting that to work anywhere else.

And why would rewriting the WCML timetable be a big deal, anyway? Would the timetable not be rewritten, if HS2 were built?

Yes, but after HS2 is built you'd be trying to fit services into a railway that is running at significantly less than full capacity, as opposed to one that has bursting at the seams. Again, look at how much effort had to be expended to find six additional daily paths for the Blackpool services - and we still don't know if it will actually work with the exceedingly tight turnaround time at Queens Park.

 

[222ben]

Do we actually need HS2 phase 2?

 

[AM9]

Do we actually need HS2 phase 2?

With the worsening mess that the Referendum outcome has caused, we probably don't need HS3.

 

[Voglitz]

Because you soon being to run out of space to extend platforms, from things like points or bridges.

According to Atkins, platform lengthening is feasible. But, available loading and capacity data suggests that there is no need to extend ICWC platforms in the next 20 years, in the Higher Growth scenario.

So "soon", is not so soon.

Once the train starts reaching critical length, not only do you then need to think about resignalling

Resignalling is at the core of the 'Digital Railway', and is likely to happen regardless.

but the train becomes slower accelerating

Acceleration is a function of available power, not train length.

and takes longer to traverse any point of track, which then starts to reduce capacity.

Bear in mind that HS2 is supposed to support 18 x 400 metre long trains per hour, whose speed in platform departure and in the throat would be little different from a WCML train.

 

[The Planner]

You wont see wholesale resignalling on the southern WCML for the best part of 30 years.

 

[dviner]

Acceleration is a function of available power, not train length.

... although I believe that train length will have some input into the equation.

Are we cautioning for spherical cows?

 

[The Ham]

According to Atkins, platform lengthening is feasible. But, available loading and capacity data suggests that there is no need to extend ICWC platforms in the next 20 years, in the Higher Growth scenario.

So "soon", is not so soon.

It is feasible, no one doubts that it could theoretically be done. The question being asked of you is how much will it cost, what else needs to be done (including on the ECML) to allow an extra coach.

The other question is how much disruption will it cause?

The final point, on growth, is that even if there is enough capacity (which from what I can see you is based on there being a few seats available in the evening peak, regardless of if they are on trains which people want to go on nor if they are in first or standard class) when is it better to start on a project? Given that, just to do phase 1, HS2 will take about 10 years (or half of the 20 years quoted) and that we've also had 4 years since that 2012 capacity numbers (giving us 14 of the 20 years by the time HS2 is available for use) we could delay HS2 by up to 6 years.

However, the longer we wait the more people will be disrupted by the works. Also, as suggested previously, we may need new trains rather than lengthening the existing ones. If this is the case they may not be needed for very long before the capacity is used up. As once we get to 450 people per train if growth is still going at 4% then we need a new coach every 4 years.

Building HS2 when the capacity of every train is an average of 80% (12 years of growth of 4% from 52%) will be easier than if we build it when capacity is higher or even at the same level with 12 coach trains.

All the models also don't allow for any additional uplift due to a large increase in capacity and faster journey times.

 

[tbtc]

So, some trains were lengthened, twice. And some platforms were lengthened, and some were not.

But you seem to think platforms can only be lengthened once. I don't understand why that would be. But on the information available, there is no current need to lengthen ICWC platforms..

You keep making these glib comments about how we can just keep lengthening trains and lengthening platforms, without any meat on the bones.

11 coach 390s and 12 coach 350s (which the majority of peak WCML services at at Euston) are already around 250m long.

How much longer do you plan to extend platforms at Liverpool Lime Street/ Manchester Piccadilly etc (given the station throats)? Not going to be easy.

If you want trains on the current network to be fifteen/ sixteen coaches long (?) then how much money are you going to spend resigning the line to deal with the fact that it takes longer for the train to clear each section? Will you accept slower services, given the fact that each longer train will take longer to clear a signal?

Have you at least accepted defeat on the "simply re-jig the timetable to find lots of additional slots" argument?

With the worsening mess that the Referendum outcome has caused, we probably don't need HS3.

Well, given the jobs that appear to be leaving London (if all the banking sector threats come to pass), we may have to rethink a log of things

 

[PR1Berske]

The fall out from the referendum may yet "do" for HS2!

 

[Ironside]

The fall out from the referendum may yet "do" for HS2!

Unlikely unless the economy really goes to s***.

 

[miami]

Does HS2 rely on the Connecting Europe EU funding?

 

[snowball]

Does HS2 rely on the Connecting Europe EU funding?

The next thread down is all about that.

 

[BuryBlue]

If HS2 is strictly about relieving capacity on the southern section of the WCML, then I'd think that looking towards the Chiltern Main Line would have been more cost effective; compulsory purchase of adjacent homes so Marylebone can gain more platforms and reinstating the other running tunnels at the throat of the station as well as 4 tracking throughout would be more cost effective I'd think. Plus it would allow other services like the Met to Amersham to come under Chiltern's umbrella, and therefore badly needed track work on LUL's lines (which would pass to Network Rail, or Chiltern directly) to be undertaken, and electrification to occur. Aylesbury should not be an hour away from London considering the distance. These improvements would allow other services to run; and even if you only electrified the suburban sections you could have cascaded HSTs running longer distance services (VTEC have overhauled theirs, the same could be done to GWR units and would make the upgrade more cost effective)*. This would allow a far more efficient railway overall to be run (added diversion opportunities too), and since Brum-London is effectively a London focussed scheme I doubt many would miss it, and would improve various services. Furthermore I think that there's potential for a
faster service on the CML than there is on the WCML anyway; I think 80 minutes is achievable there without in-cab signalling and 140mph trains (IC225s?) With them you might well crack 1h 15 - which is only a bit slower than London to Ipswich!
Furthermore it would benefit commuters in two ways:

The seats would be cheaper as those works would certainly not need a budget the size of HS2's

It would spare them from the horrors of Euston itself and also for those services still running there, the horrors of trying to fix it.

And allow them to experience the charm of Chiltern's terminus.

And it means that one would not have to use the awkwardly placed Curzon Street.

*However, I think that HS2 phase 2 should be built, as this actually benefits the Northern power house. And yes, it also puts more people in range of London, but that's not relevent. If all the stock was classic compatible you could run through services directly there. The only disbenefit is that you'd have to check which terminus to use. It'd also mean that HSTs would not have to be used (which would make me sad personally but environmentally and for most passengers it would be a positive). Spare money could be set aside for HS3 if it's allocated for the Northern Powerhouse scheme, extending the Central line to Denham so Chiltern can ommit calls there, or improving accessibility and future proofing stations.

Sorry if I excessively crayoned/repeated a previously stated idea. It just popped into my head.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

Unlikely unless the economy really goes to s***.

On the contrary, if the economy really does go down the toilet then we will need to boost spending on infrastructure to keep the economy going. Network rail carn't take on anymore work, many road schemes have already been approved, Crossrail 2 isn't even off the drawing board yet so the only shovel ready project we have that can provide a much needed boost to the economy by creating thousands of construction and engineering jobs is HS2.

 

[snowball]

On the contrary, if the economy really does go down the toilet then we will need to boost spending on infrastructure to keep the economy going.

But will the next PM and Chancellor see it that way? The present PM and Chancellor didn't in their first couple of years - they cancelled infrastructure projects.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

But will the next PM and Chancellor see it that way? The present PM and Chancellor didn't in their first couple of years - they cancelled infrastructure projects.

And the economy got worse as a result, hence the U turns on infrastructure in late 2011 and 2012.

 

[AM9]

And the economy got worse as a result, hence the U turns on infrastructure in late 2011 and 2012.

And so it will be for Boris. After a couple of years he will want faster ways to get to see his voters in Liverpool. :roll:

 

[deltic]

If Boris does become PM then even more of HS2 will disappear down a tunnel to save his beloved Hillingdon constituency