HS2 or Southwest improvements?

[irish_rail]

Answering my own question on this - I've had a look at some stats from the CAA which show very low numbers of Heathrow passengers coming from the Midlands and North. Really quite surprised by that.
View attachment 81187

In which case no need for HEx trains to stop at OOC and thus no need for GWR to stop there either .

 

[HSTEd]

In which case no need for HEx trains to stop at OOC and thus no need for GWR to stop there either .

HEx is a side show to the main purpose of stopping GWR at OOC.

For one thing, it dramatically cuts journey times for Manchester-Bristol Parkway/South Wales and similar journeys.

 

[CW2]

Twaddle. You can walk to oxford st within 15 minutes from paddington. It is very much central London.

But the fact remains it is the LEAST central of all the London termini. If you can walk faster than the Bing average person, good for you, but it doesn't alter the facts.

In which case no need for HEx trains to stop at OOC and thus no need for GWR to stop there either .

So you want slower journeys from the West to Heathrow then? Funny that, it seems to go against all your other principles of wanting better services from the West. It'll be faster changing at OOC than going all the way into Padd and back out again.

 

[py_megapixel]

HEx is a side show to the main purpose of stopping GWR at OOC.

For one thing, it dramatically cuts journey times for Manchester-Bristol Parkway/South Wales and similar journeys.

Does that mean it'll actually be faster to go from Manchester to Old Oak and then back out to Exeter, for example, than on the current direct XC service?

 

[HSTEd]

Does that mean it'll actually be faster to go from Manchester to Old Oak and then back out to Exeter, for example, than on the current direct XC service?

Does Manchester-Exeter currently have a direct service?
I can't seem to find one to pull the timings.

EDIT:

Paddington-Exeter is on order of 2h20.
Say thats about the same for OOC.

Manchester-OOC will be 60 minutes.

So about 3h20 plus change time.

Current journey I can find is change at Birmingham with a 14 minute connection, 4hr14.

Can't see OOC connections taking longer than Birmingham New Street!

So roughly 3hr35 versus 4hr14.

 

[coppercapped]

HEx is a side show to the main purpose of stopping GWR at OOC.

For one thing, it dramatically cuts journey times for Manchester-Bristol Parkway/South Wales and similar journeys.

That's your opinion. It is not reflected in the supporting documents for HS2.

Journeys such as these are not considered to offer any passenger benefit at all in the first Phases of HS2. The entire area west of Reading is shown on the map I referred to in my post #56 having plus/minus £5 million benefits in 2037.

Essentially zero...

There are some benefits for the areas around Bristol and Oxford when the full 'Y' scheme is completed[1], but until then such journeys are not significant in numbers or economic effect to HS2's business.

[1] Probably due to additional journeys being routed through the Birmingham Interchange.

 

[py_megapixel]

Does Manchester-Exeter currently have a direct service?
I can't seem to find one to pull the timings.

EDIT:

Paddington-Exeter is on order of 2h20.
Say thats about the same for OOC.

Manchester-OOC will be 60 minutes.

So about 3h20 plus change time.

Current journey I can find is change at Birmingham with a 14 minute connection, 4hr14.

Can't see OOC connections taking longer than Birmingham New Street!

So roughly 3hr35 versus 4hr14.

It does usually have a direct service a few times a day but I believe it has been suspended during the pandemic.

 

[CW2]

I think the documents referred to predate the decision to advance the building of the link to Crewe (Phase 2A) which will also decrease journey times from North of Crewe.
The further towards South Wales / Cotswolds you get, so the benefits decrease.
The likelihood of somebody travelling Cardiff - OOC - Manchester to save a few minutes is much less than somebody travelling from west of Newbury. For the Cross Country journey originating west of Newbury there will nearly always be a change of trains involved en route, so the possibility of a faster and smoother journey via OOC is a real prospect.

 

[HSTEd]

It does usually have a direct service a few times a day but I believe it has been suspended during the pandemic.

Assuming the trains in my example have similar timings over the individual legs as the direct train, it seems the journey time saving would still be significant even without said change.

 

[quantinghome]

Does Manchester-Exeter currently have a direct service?
I can't seem to find one to pull the timings.

EDIT:

Paddington-Exeter is on order of 2h20.
Say thats about the same for OOC.

Manchester-OOC will be 60 minutes.

So about 3h20 plus change time.

Current journey I can find is change at Birmingham with a 14 minute connection, 4hr14.

Can't see OOC connections taking longer than Birmingham New Street!

So roughly 3hr35 versus 4hr14.

For the SW XC route, after HS2 has opened I believe it would still be marginally quicker to change via Birmingham Curzon St.:

Exeter-Birmingham is ~2h30

Birmingham-Manchester will be 0h40

So 3h10 plus change time.

BUT, there will be a large swathe of central southern England for which OOC will be the quickest and simplest way to get to the Midlands and North. Most places to the east of the SW XC route and to the south of Oxford will be quicker going to the Midlands and North via OOC. That's a pretty big market which is ripe for modal shift to rail.

 

[coppercapped]

For the SW XC route, after HS2 has opened I believe it would still be marginally quicker to change via Birmingham Curzon St.:

Exeter-Birmingham is ~2h30

Birmingham-Manchester will be 0h40

So 3h10 plus change time.

BUT, there will be a large swathe of central southern England for which OOC will be the quickest and simplest way to get to the Midlands and North. Most places to the east of the SW XC route and to the south of Oxford will be quicker going to the Midlands and North via OOC. That's a pretty big market which is ripe for modal shift to rail.

This is fantasy. The report which I mentioned in post#56 above (Demand and Appraisal Report HS2 London - West Midlands. Prepared by MVA Consultancy, Mott MacDonald and Atkins in April 2012) shows no measurable passenger benefits for the whole of England south and west of Reading. Even after completion of the HS2 links to Leeds this does not change although some passenger benefits are shown centred around Oxford and Bristol.

There is no big market for travel from these areas to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds even now. The presence of HS2 will not change this situation. Holiday traffic to and from the West Country on a few Saturdays in the year from the Midlands and points north does not cut the mustard.

XC which serves roughly these corridors may be crowded, but most passengers are making (overlapping) shorter journeys. One only has to look at the number of people getting off and then on at places like Reading and Oxford - a large percentage of the passengers change over. Southampton to Reading (and vice versa), yes. Exeter to Manchester - a lot fewer.

 

[coppercapped]

But the fact remains it is the LEAST central of all the London termini. If you can walk faster than the Bing average person, good for you, but it doesn't alter the facts.

So you want slower journeys from the West to Heathrow then? Funny that, it seems to go against all your other principles of wanting better services from the West. It'll be faster changing at OOC than going all the way into Padd and back out again.

Who the hell walks across London? Only tourists on guided walks and fitness freaks.

People use the Underground, buses or taxis - which means it makes little or no difference as to where the stations are located with respect to some notional centre. London is so big that another half a mile or so is irrelevant - not everybody wants to go the Trafalgar Square. Some may even go shopping in Kensington High Street or have business in the office complexes in Hammersmith. Both these centres are west of Paddington.

Grinding its way through the planning process is the western access to Heathrow by a new junction between Langley and Iver. Service patterns are not yet determined but it is likely that Reading to Terminal 5 will take about 26 minutes. Makes another stop for this purpose at OOC rather superfluous.

 

[py_megapixel]

Who the hell walks across London? Only tourists on guided walks and fitness freaks.

Can you back up that claim?

There are plenty of reasons to walk across London, especially when changing trains, most notably just wanting a bit of fresh air between two long spells of sitting on a train.

 

[irish_rail]

Who the hell walks across London? Only tourists on guided walks and fitness freaks.

People use the Underground, buses or taxis - which means it makes little or no difference as to where the stations are located with respect to some notional centre. London is so big that another half a mile or so is irrelevant - not everybody wants to go the Trafalgar Square. Some may even go shopping in Kensington High Street or have business in the office complexes in Hammersmith. Both these centres are west of Paddington.

Grinding its way through the planning process is the western access to Heathrow by a new junction between Langley and Iver. Service patterns are not yet determined but it is likely that Reading to Terminal 5 will take about 26 minutes. Makes another stop for this purpose at OOC rather superfluous.

Indeed, one worries that the OOC station may be an excuse for the heathrow western link at Langley to be kicked into the long grass, yet it will have far greater benefits to passengers in the south , west , and wales than OOC stops ever will.

 

[Ianno87]

Can you back up that claim?

There are plenty of reasons to walk across London, especially when changing trains, most notably just wanting a bit of fresh air between two long spells of sitting on a train.

The Central London Rail Termini report suggests that there's a reasonably decent proportion of walking from Paddington as far as about Bond Street/Oxford Circus westwards, and the Royal Albert Hall/Knightsbridge southwards.

 

[coppercapped]

Can you back up that claim?

There are plenty of reasons to walk across London, especially when changing trains, most notably just wanting a bit of fresh air between two long spells of sitting on a train.

Hold that concept... fresh air in London?

(Hint: most people travelling to or from London are not simply changing trains. They are living there and getting to the station or they have gone to Town to go shopping or a concert or a play or they are going to a pub or one of a million other possibilities such as getting to and from work).

 

[Ianno87]

Indeed, one worries that the OOC station may be an excuse for the heathrow western link at Langley to be kicked into the long grass, yet it will have far greater benefits to passengers in the south , west , and wales than OOC stops ever will.

Although the journey time GWML stations-OOC-Heathrow (with no stops on the double back bit) probably would compare pretty respectably with a change at Reading onto a semi-fast or stopping train via the Western link

 

[The Ham]

This is fantasy. The report which I mentioned in post#56 above (Demand and Appraisal Report HS2 London - West Midlands. Prepared by MVA Consultancy, Mott MacDonald and Atkins in April 2012) shows no measurable passenger benefits for the whole of England south and west of Reading. Even after completion of the HS2 links to Leeds this does not change although some passenger benefits are shown centred around Oxford and Bristol.

There is no big market for travel from these areas to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds even now. The presence of HS2 will not change this situation. Holiday traffic to and from the West Country on a few Saturdays in the year from the Midlands and points north does not cut the mustard.

XC which serves roughly these corridors may be crowded, but most passengers are making (overlapping) shorter journeys. One only has to look at the number of people getting off and then on at places like Reading and Oxford - a large percentage of the passengers change over. Southampton to Reading (and vice versa), yes. Exeter to Manchester - a lot fewer.

Just because a report says that there's no measurable value from these journeys it doesn't mean that there's none. It's just there's no economic value in them.

It may well be that there's extra choice resulting in cheaper tickets, however even if it doesn't it would likely enable more people to make those journeys.

The other thing to consider when it comes to journey times is that XC services run hourly, HS2 is 3tph to Manchester, as such that's quite a marked increase in frequency even if the time difference between the XC services and HS2 services the extra frequency will be quite attractive to many.

 

[py_megapixel]

Hold that concept... fresh air in London?

Let's not get hung up on semantics. I mean that people might well want to get up, stretch their legs and have a walk outdoors.

 

[Ianno87]

Just because a report says that there's no measurable value from these journeys it doesn't mean that there's none. It's just there's no economic value in them.

It may well be that there's extra choice resulting in cheaper tickets, however even if it doesn't it would likely enable more people to make those journeys.

The other thing to consider when it comes to journey times is that XC services run hourly, HS2 is 3tph to Manchester, as such that's quite a marked increase in frequency even if the time difference between the XC services and HS2 services the extra frequency will be quite attractive to many.

Also, traditional demand modelling is not always good at picking up changes in demand where there is a step change. E.g. demand between, say, Plymouth and Manchester may be suppressed by the percieved long journey time (5+ hours) and Voyager crowding. Offering a fast, high capacity connection via Old Oak might change that... exactly like the demand stimulated by Operation Princess

 

[class26]

This is fantasy. The report which I mentioned in post#56 above (Demand and Appraisal Report HS2 London - West Midlands. Prepared by MVA Consultancy, Mott MacDonald and Atkins in April 2012) shows no measurable passenger benefits for the whole of England south and west of Reading. Even after completion of the HS2 links to Leeds this does not change although some passenger benefits are shown centred around Oxford and Bristol.

There is no big market for travel from these areas to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds even now. The presence of HS2 will not change this situation. Holiday traffic to and from the West Country on a few Saturdays in the year from the Midlands and points north does not cut the mustard.

XC which serves roughly these corridors may be crowded, but most passengers are making (overlapping) shorter journeys. One only has to look at the number of people getting off and then on at places like Reading and Oxford - a large percentage of the passengers change over. Southampton to Reading (and vice versa), yes. Exeter to Manchester - a lot fewer.

You say that but the M5 says otherwise.
Could it be that sky high fares on X C keep pax off the trains ?
Also, it`s very difficult to say there are few doing long journeys as split ticketing is common. A few years ago |I wanted to go from Boston to Cardiff via Nottingham. Quoted £150 on a through ticket yet a obtained Boston to B`ham for £25 return and B`ham to Cardiff also for £25 return. Even stayed on the same train at New Street. Since then i have used this trick several times to the west from Lincolnshire

 

[coppercapped]

Just because a report says that there's no measurable value from these journeys it doesn't mean that there's none. It's just there's no economic value in them.

It may well be that there's extra choice resulting in cheaper tickets, however even if it doesn't it would likely enable more people to make those journeys.

The other thing to consider when it comes to journey times is that XC services run hourly, HS2 is 3tph to Manchester, as such that's quite a marked increase in frequency even if the time difference between the XC services and HS2 services the extra frequency will be quite attractive to many.

The MVA Consultancy, Mott MacDonald and Atkins report concentrates on 'passenger benefits', not on wider economic activity. I will say it again, this report was one of the suite of documents used to justify the construction of HS2 - it wasn't simply 'a report'.

'Passenger benefits' is one of the measurements used to justify the construction of HS2. If any passenger benefits could have been found outside the areas shown in the Figures I am sure they would have been used to bolster the justification for the construction of HS2. Suffice it to say - there were none.

 

[coppercapped]

You say that but the M5 says otherwise.

Does it? It could also be very like XC - many overlapping but shorter journeys.

It is certainly full of longer distance traffic on weekends in the summer - all those caravans and campervans heading to Devon and Cornwall. The stretch from the Bristol conurbation to Birmingham is also almost permanently busy but also goes past Gloucester, Cheltenham and Worcester but south of Bristol on a Tuesday in March it's not very full. This latter area is the market I was talking about.

Could it be that sky high fares on X C keep pax off the trains ?
Also, it`s very difficult to say there are few doing long journeys as split ticketing is common. A few years ago |I wanted to go from Boston to Cardiff via Nottingham. Quoted £150 on a through ticket yet a obtained Boston to B`ham for £25 return and B`ham to Cardiff also for £25 return. Even stayed on the same train at New Street. Since then i have used this trick several times to the west from Lincolnshire

Ticketing and journey data are not in the public domain and anecdata is not reliable. I only note what I have seen on the Bournemouth to Birmingham route - that there is a very large turnover of passengers at the intermediate stops such as Basingstoke, Reading, Oxford and Coventry. The same phenomenon may also be observed at Bristol Temple Meads for the Cross Country trains - and indeed for practically all trains stopping there!

This is not to say that there are no long distance passengers - but they are heavily outnumbered by those making shorter journeys.

 

[Mitchell Hurd]

Have people on here stopped to consider that the reason it takes ages to get to Cornwall on the train from either London or Birmingham might be because they are physically separated by a distance which is far from trivial?
There's a reason this route has a sleeper train, you realise.

Complaining that travelling from Plymouth to London takes a long time strikes me as an awful lot like choosing to live in an isolated farmhouse and then being frustrated that you can't just pop across the road to a supermarket whenever you feel like it.

Yes I know it's not the fastest it could be, but it's far from ridiculous.

If I might say, the London to Plymouth services I think have been cleverly done - the 2 trains that use to run non-stop from Reading to Exeter can call at Taunton, providing a total of over 1,200 more seats for Taunton passengers, and still arrive in Penzance around xx:10 compared to when HST's were used on here.

 

[quantinghome]

Ticketing and journey data are not in the public domain and anecdata is not reliable. I only note what I have seen on the Bournemouth to Birmingham route - that there is a very large turnover of passengers at the intermediate stops such as Basingstoke, Reading, Oxford and Coventry. The same phenomenon may also be observed at Bristol Temple Meads for the Cross Country trains - and indeed for practically all trains stopping there!

This is not to say that there are no long distance passengers - but they are heavily outnumbered by those making shorter journeys.

I'd agree with that. Would be interesting to see XC's internal data on journey distances. XC is just too slow (and overcrowded, and expensive, and has that annoying buzzing sound, and smells like a septic tank etc.) to be a realistic option for many people. So the car wins.

But HS2, with a change at OOC, creates a step-change in rail provision between regions of the country that currently have low connectivity - specifically south-central England (population approx. 4 million) and the Midlands/North. The effects of this are notoriously difficult to predict which is why reports used to justify schemes err on the side of caution - they need to be robust and difficult to challenge, and clearly they're not the main driver behind HS2 so being conservative about the numbers doesn't affect the decision to build HS2. However I suspect the step change HS2 provides for this hitherto neglected national link might end up proving significantly more important than has been considered. At the end of the day who knows? Ultimately it'll be the passengers that decide. If few people change trains from GW to HS2 at OOC then they may end up skipping it. If traffic takes off, they will stop every train there.

 

[CW2]

What I think we must consider is that anybody making a hypothetical West Country to Manchester journey via OOC would probably need a "Via London" ticket, which would be markedly more expensive than the typical XC fares - extortionate although they may be. So while the theoretical journey time savings are there, how much of the market would be attracted by the faster-but-more-expensive journey via OOC remains to be seen.

 

[JamesRowden]

I would be happy for my West Country service to call at Old Oak Common if the following line existed:

• Old Oak Common
• Notting Hill Gate
• Victoria
• Waterloo
• London Bridge
• Emerge at Lewisham and take over some South East London Metro Routes

 

[Ianno87]

What I think we must consider is that anybody making a hypothetical West Country to Manchester journey via OOC would probably need a "Via London" ticket, which would be markedly more expensive than the typical XC fares - extortionate although they may be. So while the theoretical journey time savings are there, how much of the market would be attracted by the faster-but-more-expensive journey via OOC remains to be seen.

Although Advance fares via London can commonly be cheaper than Advance fares not via London.

 

[Bald Rick]

I think there is a very great risk that far longer than 4 minutes will have to be timetables in to every GWR service.
3 minutes to decelerate from 125mph to stop. At LEAST 2 minutes in the OOC platform, then a further minute to get up to 50mph for the final stretch into paddington.
So that's 5 to 6 minutes, and that's only if everything runs like clockwork. I'd say another couple of minutes would be necessary to be added to take into account the likelihood of drivers encountering double yellow signals on the approach to OOC and catching up the train in front (headways nowadays are 2 to 3 mins reading to padd).
So all in all I'd say 8 minutes would be needed as a minimum to be added to the reading to paddington journey time post hs2.

It’s always worth doing a little research before posting, I find. Or, at least, understand the laws of physics.

A station stop in the middle of a 125mph section for a service travelling at 125mph typically costs a train 5 minutes with a 2 minute dwell. Various examples all over the network.

 

[Railwaysceptic]

Can you back up that claim?

There are plenty of reasons to walk across London, especially when changing trains, most notably just wanting a bit of fresh air between two long spells of sitting on a train.

I'm sorry but people do not walk across London to change trains. No-one walks from Fenchurch Street to Victoria, from London Bridge to Euston, from Marylebone to Kings Cross to change trains.