HS2 Operations - Speculation welcomed

[Nottingham59]

This thread is to discuss all aspects of operating HS2 when it is finally built and open to the public. In scope are services Old Oak Common to Curzon St, and from London and Birmingham to the north (i.e. when the link to Handsacre is built). Out of scope are HS2 Euston, which seems to be several years further down the road, and any exentions to HS2 Phase 1 beyond Handsacre.

To start the ball rolling, I have a number of questions/observations.

• How will HS2 manage the flow of passengers at OOC? Published images of the station show a mezzanine concourse with a single gate line, and with multiple escalators down to each platform. This is very different from Euston today. How will passengers be directed to the right place on the platform? Does this mean all trains will need ticket checks? Should passengers be allowed onto the platform(s) before the previous train has left?
• Will / should ticket prices be cheap to fill the trains, or eye-wateringly expensive to maximise revenue? How will season tickets from Interchange to London be priced?
• How many paths through Handsacre will be possible? Will / should there be any HS2 service to the north from Curzon St?
• Will it be possible to run 400m trains through Handsacre and split them somewhere? Splitting / Joining does not necessarily need to be at a platform.
• What hours of operation?
• Will / should travel be only by reserved seat and specified train? Or should HS2 run a turn-up-and-go shuttle service to Birmingham, where passengers just get on the first train that goes to their destination?
• What dwell time will be needed at OOC to turn a train round?
• How will HS2 handle disruption? What plans should they have if service gets suspended for any reason?

These are my questions. I'm sure you can think of others

 

[Dr Day]

Will the HS2 operator objective be to maximise net revenue (revenue less operating costs) for the HS2 operator, or work as an integral part of GBR in collaboration with the other bits to maximise net revenue across GBR as a whole?

 

[The Planner]

Hours of operation aren't going to be more than 2330-0530 at best. I still don't expect more than 8tph through Handsacre off HS2, even that might be a push depending on how its timetabled and yes, there should be northbound out of Curzon St. Turnarounds no less than 15 minutes at OOC. Splitting and joining if it happens will be in a platform, nowhere else. Disruption will be dependent on where this issue is, there will be an overall contingency plan based on HS2/NW&C region, much like the contingency plans that exist now.

Will the HS2 operator objective be to maximise net revenue (revenue less operating costs) for the HS2 operator, or work as an integral part of GBR in collaboration with the other bits to maximise net revenue across GBR as a whole?

It won't be a seperate entity.

 

[SynthD]

work as an integral part of GBR in collaboration with the other bits to maximise net revenue across GBR as a whole?

As it will be part of the WCML concession, a middle option is that it is worked to maximise revenue from that concession. Alternatively, worked to minimise congestion in that concession, ie no one sensible should choose the old lines on cost grounds. I think this has been consistently but rarely stated. It will not necessarily look the same at 7 (the max before opening Euston) and 18tph.

 

[JonathanH]

It will not necessarily look the same at 7 (the max before opening Euston) and 18tph.

Surely figures like 17 or 18 tph are long gone expectations, along with the platforms at Euston that would be required to run that frequency, and any outlet to places not on the WCML?

 

[stevieinselby]

Presumably with the move to GBR being completed long before HS2 sees a train in service, there is no question about concessions or operators, it will just be another part of GBR, which will simplify the objectives of the ticketing arrangements. Where the prices are set will be a balancing act ... how to get the best compromise between maximising revenue and maximising ridership, because they need it to be a success politically.

I think most people expect to be able to get cheaper tickets on the WCML classic lines, because we're conditioned into seeing fast (and therefore more attractive) services as commanding a premium over slower services, especially if those slower services are on cheaper trains with fewer facilities. (Of course, that raises the question of whether HS2 trains will feel more luxurious than the Pendos). But whether tickets on the classic lines actually will undercut HS2 – either through having a cheaper Route: Milton Keynes (for example) option, or with more generous quotas of Advance tickets – may depend on how the demand for end-to-end journeys balances with demand for intermediate journeys. GBR won't want London to Birmingham/beyond passengers using the classic line services if that risks crowding out passengers travelling to/from Milton Keynes, Rugby, Coventry, Nuneaton etc – but if there is more than ample capacity for those journeys that can only be made on the classic lines, there might be an advantage in allowing the more cost-conscious passengers to take the slow train in order to spread the load more evenly and keep the premium prices on HS2.

 

[Nottingham59]

Surely figures like 17 or 18 tph are long gone expectations, along with the platforms at Euston that would be required to run that frequency, and any outlet to places not on the WCML?

They are for now. If HS2 is as successful as I think it will be, I expect there will be great political pressure to extend it, at a later date.

 

[Stossgebet]

While it is likely that Avanti and 'concessions'/franchises won't exist when HS2 opens. We must remember that there is also an election before then. And who knows what the next government will be, and what it will do. If Burnham wins and continues along his current path of blindly pro eu fanaticism, it will be a labour government undoing a labour nationalisation, to re-tender the train operations as per eu law!
What strange times we live in!!

 

[JonathanH]

They are for now. If HS2 is as successful as I think it will be, I expect there will be great political pressure to extend it, at a later date.

Is Euston going to be built in such a way that the service can only reach 10tph, then it is somewhat unlikely that it will be possible to expand the service. In any case, this would be so far into the future as to be largely irrelevant in modern terms. We are now talking about Old Oak Common opening in 2037, Euston by 2043. When exactly is the decision going to be taken to expand Euston, or the destinations that HS2 serves? Bound to be in the 2050s?

 

[Nottingham59]

Is Euston going to be built in such a way that the service can only reach 10tph, then it is somewhat unlikely that it will be possible to expand the service. In any case, this would be so far into the future as to be largely irrelevant in modern terms. We are now talking about Old Oak Common opening in 2037, Euston by 2043. When exactly is the decision going to be taken to expand Euston, or the destinations that HS2 serves? Bound to be in the 2050s?

Dunno. Happy to speculate in another thread

 

[HSTEd]

Whilst HS2 are not willing to commit to more than 7tph from Old Oak Common at this time, this is emphatically not the same as saying that that is all that will ever achievable in advance of Euston opening.

Six platform termini with flat approaches achieve a lot more than that on high speed lines abroad.

 

[Bald Rick]

As it will be part of the WCML concession

While it is likely that Avanti and 'concessions'/franchises won't exist when HS2 opens.

It is certain that Avanti won’t exist as a concession / franchise from 7 March 2027.

HS2 operation will be part of the GBR West Coast Business Unit.

 

[Nottingham59]

Whilst HS2 are not willing to commit to more than 7tph from Old Oak Common at this time, this is emphatically not the same as saying that that is all that will ever achievable in advance of Euston opening.

Six platform termini with flat approaches achieve a lot more than that on high speed lines abroad.

I think the limiting factor will be the throat. Only the two central platforms P11 and P12 can access the scissors crossing within the station box. All other platforms have to run wrong way in the running tunnels to use the Victoria Road Crossover Box. I don't know how much of a constraint this will be.

The way I think they could handle 12-16tph at OOC will be to lay tracks in the eastern throat from the northerns platforms to the southern tunnel towards Euston, and use that tunnel as a reversing siding, allowing trains arriving at P13 and P14 to depart from P9 and P10 without conflicting with the central platforms.

This snip from the HS2 website map, with the six platform tracks on the left and the two tunnels to Euston on the right, shows that this might be possible.

 

[Stossgebet]

It is certain that Avanti won’t exist as a concession / franchise from 7 March 2027.

HS2 operation will be part of the GBR West Coast Business Unit.

My point being that the train operation within that 'business unit' could be re-tendered by the next government. And should that next government be Burnham pushing us into the eu single market, then the train operation legally has to be tendered to the private sector.

 

[squingo44]

Will it be possible to use HS2 as a shuttle between Euston and OOC as part of the London metro network, with tap in and tap out?

 

[HSTEd]

I think the limiting factor will be the throat. Only the two central platforms P11 and P12 can access the scissors crossing within the station box. All other platforms have to run wrong way in the running tunnels to use the Victoria Road Crossover Box. I don't know how much of a constraint this will be.

The way I think they could handle 12-16tph at OOC will be to lay tracks in the eastern throat from the northerns platforms to the southern tunnel towards Euston, and use that tunnel as a reversing siding, allowing trains arriving at P13 and P14 to depart from P9 and P10 without conflicting with the central platforms.

This snip from the HS2 website map, with the six platform tracks on the left and the two tunnels to Euston on the right, shows that this might be possible.

View attachment 213595

My understanding is that it is only a few hundred metres to the Victoria Road crossover box, so it might not be too big of a constraint, although it does make diagramming more interesting!

Obviously as the tunnels to Euston are already being built, they do have the ability to use the running tunnels as reversing sidings if required.

 

[JonathanH]

Will it be possible to use HS2 as a shuttle between Euston and OOC as part of the London metro network, with tap in and tap out?

I doubt it. If it were, it would be akin to the special arrangements between Stratford International and St Pancras, with a higher more penal charge. Still, it is 17 years away, so who knows.

 

[Nottingham59]

Will it be possible to use HS2 as a shuttle between Euston and OOC as part of the London metro network, with tap in and tap out?

I expect that will be not allowed as it would destroy the dwell times at OOC.

Getting back in scope, I do wonder if Interchange will become a Park and Ride station for Central Birmingham? With, say, 4tph OOC-Curzon St all stopping at Interchange would be more attractive than 2tph at Coleshill Parkway.

Also, who would set the prices for such a journey? GBR, or the mayor of the West Midlands?

 

[The Planner]

I expect that will be not allowed as it would destroy the dwell times at OOC.

Getting back in scope, I do wonder if Interchange will become a Park and Ride station for Central Birmingham? With, say, 4tph OOC-Curzon St all stopping at Interchange would be more attractive than 2tph at Coleshill Parkway.

Also, who would set the prices for such a journey? GBR, or the mayor of the West Midlands?

Coleshill isn't really a park and ride, the car park is too small. Its no Birmingham International.

 

[JonathanH]

Also, who would set the prices for such a journey? GBR, or the mayor of the West Midlands?

Does the mayor of London have a say in the fares charged between St Pancras and Stratford International? Presumably not.

 

[Nottingham59]

Does the mayor of London have a say in the fares charged between St Pancras and Stratford International? Presumably not.

Yes. TfL sets those fares "with DfT guidance" but with specific zonal rules and it's not in the daily or weekly fare caps

Transport for the West Midlands sets the fares Between Birmingham International (Zone 5) and New Street (Zone 1). And Andy Burnham says transport matters should be more devolved to local mayors.