HS2 Operations - Speculation welcomed

[Nottingham59]

This thread is to discuss all aspects of operating HS2 when it is finally built and open to the public. In scope are services Old Oak Common to Curzon St, and from London and Birmingham to the north (i.e. when the link to Handsacre is built). Out of scope are HS2 Euston, which seems to be several years further down the road, and any exentions to HS2 Phase 1 beyond Handsacre.

To start the ball rolling, I have a number of questions/observations.

• How will HS2 manage the flow of passengers at OOC? Published images of the station show a mezzanine concourse with a single gate line, and with multiple escalators down to each platform. This is very different from Euston today. How will passengers be directed to the right place on the platform? Does this mean all trains will need ticket checks? Should passengers be allowed onto the platform(s) before the previous train has left?
• Will / should ticket prices be cheap to fill the trains, or eye-wateringly expensive to maximise revenue? How will season tickets from Interchange to London be priced?
• How many paths through Handsacre will be possible? Will / should there be any HS2 service to the north from Curzon St?
• Will it be possible to run 400m trains through Handsacre and split them somewhere? Splitting / Joining does not necessarily need to be at a platform.
• What hours of operation?
• Will / should travel be only by reserved seat and specified train? Or should HS2 run a turn-up-and-go shuttle service to Birmingham, where passengers just get on the first train that goes to their destination?
• What dwell time will be needed at OOC to turn a train round?
• How will HS2 handle disruption? What plans should they have if service gets suspended for any reason?

These are my questions. I'm sure you can think of others

 

[Dr Day]

Will the HS2 operator objective be to maximise net revenue (revenue less operating costs) for the HS2 operator, or work as an integral part of GBR in collaboration with the other bits to maximise net revenue across GBR as a whole?

 

[The Planner]

Hours of operation aren't going to be more than 2330-0530 at best. I still don't expect more than 8tph through Handsacre off HS2, even that might be a push depending on how its timetabled and yes, there should be northbound out of Curzon St. Turnarounds no less than 15 minutes at OOC. Splitting and joining if it happens will be in a platform, nowhere else. Disruption will be dependent on where this issue is, there will be an overall contingency plan based on HS2/NW&C region, much like the contingency plans that exist now.

Will the HS2 operator objective be to maximise net revenue (revenue less operating costs) for the HS2 operator, or work as an integral part of GBR in collaboration with the other bits to maximise net revenue across GBR as a whole?

It won't be a seperate entity.

 

[SynthD]

work as an integral part of GBR in collaboration with the other bits to maximise net revenue across GBR as a whole?

As it will be part of the WCML concession, a middle option is that it is worked to maximise revenue from that concession. Alternatively, worked to minimise congestion in that concession, ie no one sensible should choose the old lines on cost grounds. I think this has been consistently but rarely stated. It will not necessarily look the same at 7 (the max before opening Euston) and 18tph.

 

[JonathanH]

It will not necessarily look the same at 7 (the max before opening Euston) and 18tph.

Surely figures like 17 or 18 tph are long gone expectations, along with the platforms at Euston that would be required to run that frequency, and any outlet to places not on the WCML?

 

[stevieinselby]

Presumably with the move to GBR being completed long before HS2 sees a train in service, there is no question about concessions or operators, it will just be another part of GBR, which will simplify the objectives of the ticketing arrangements. Where the prices are set will be a balancing act ... how to get the best compromise between maximising revenue and maximising ridership, because they need it to be a success politically.

I think most people expect to be able to get cheaper tickets on the WCML classic lines, because we're conditioned into seeing fast (and therefore more attractive) services as commanding a premium over slower services, especially if those slower services are on cheaper trains with fewer facilities. (Of course, that raises the question of whether HS2 trains will feel more luxurious than the Pendos). But whether tickets on the classic lines actually will undercut HS2 – either through having a cheaper Route: Milton Keynes (for example) option, or with more generous quotas of Advance tickets – may depend on how the demand for end-to-end journeys balances with demand for intermediate journeys. GBR won't want London to Birmingham/beyond passengers using the classic line services if that risks crowding out passengers travelling to/from Milton Keynes, Rugby, Coventry, Nuneaton etc – but if there is more than ample capacity for those journeys that can only be made on the classic lines, there might be an advantage in allowing the more cost-conscious passengers to take the slow train in order to spread the load more evenly and keep the premium prices on HS2.

 

[Nottingham59]

Surely figures like 17 or 18 tph are long gone expectations, along with the platforms at Euston that would be required to run that frequency, and any outlet to places not on the WCML?

They are for now. If HS2 is as successful as I think it will be, I expect there will be great political pressure to extend it, at a later date.

 

[Stossgebet]

While it is likely that Avanti and 'concessions'/franchises won't exist when HS2 opens. We must remember that there is also an election before then. And who knows what the next government will be, and what it will do. If Burnham wins and continues along his current path of blindly pro eu fanaticism, it will be a labour government undoing a labour nationalisation, to re-tender the train operations as per eu law!
What strange times we live in!!

 

[JonathanH]

They are for now. If HS2 is as successful as I think it will be, I expect there will be great political pressure to extend it, at a later date.

Is Euston going to be built in such a way that the service can only reach 10tph, then it is somewhat unlikely that it will be possible to expand the service. In any case, this would be so far into the future as to be largely irrelevant in modern terms.