HS2 Consolation Prizes No Longer Speculation

[Brush 4]

If HS2 Manchester really is cancelled, what smaller schemes may be in with a chance of becoming reality? Presumably mostly northern based schemes to appease the voters there. Northern Powerhouse/Trans Pennine? Fleetwood reopening (track still in situ)? More electrification?

 

[nr758123]

Some meaningless re-announcements of things which have been announced several times before. That's all that will be provided. With this government, the announcement is an end in itself, done in the hope that some gullible fools will believe that something is going to actually happen.

I've noticed that government ministers today have been quoting a figure of £33 billion rail investment in the North. Setting aside for a moment that I don't believe the £33bn figure, in the unlikely event that it is true there's almost nothing to show for it.

 

[fishwomp]

If HS2 Manchester really is cancelled, what smaller schemes may be in with a chance of becoming reality? Presumably mostly northern based schemes to appease the voters there. Northern Powerhouse/Trans Pennine? Fleetwood reopening (track still in situ)? More electrification?

It's unlikely it'd be limited to rail. The money will be spread across road schemes too - although they'd have to find a popular one..

Some unannounced electrification will be announced - more MML or TransPennine infill that can keeping a rolling programme going at fairly low cost. Mostly will be north of Birmingham, but wondering if a scheme in south west would help spread the 'hs2 money' for 'everyone'

 

[snowball]

A pothole fund seems to have been mentioned.

 

[matacaster]

If HS2 Manchester really is cancelled, what smaller schemes may be in with a chance of becoming reality? Presumably mostly northern based schemes to appease the voters there. Northern Powerhouse/Trans Pennine? Fleetwood reopening (track still in situ)? More electrification?

Clearly the kirkburton branch must be in with a shout. It's northern and lepton is my nearest station

 

[JonathanH]

I am not sure of the premise of this thread.

The fact is that HS2 was speculatively funded by future revenue from the services. It stands to reason that there is nothing to pay for consolation prizes, other than those already underway.

 

[Arkeeos]

Well NPR can't happen without HS2, I bet they re-announce the northern hub project, so platforms 13and14 finally. No replacement for what is going to be lost though.

 

[GardenRail]

If HS2 Manchester really is cancelled, what smaller schemes may be in with a chance of becoming reality? Presumably mostly northern based schemes to appease the voters there. Northern Powerhouse/Trans Pennine? Fleetwood reopening (track still in situ)? More electrification?

There's a pothole on my street could do with seeing to.....

 

[GatwickDepress]

Probably a 195 in a 'Northern Powerhouse' livery, lanyards to all TOC staff with some pithy slogan about levelling up the railways, and a siding somewhere will be reopened by a mayor in full regalia to boost capacity, but it won't ever be used because it faces the wrong direction.

 

[yorksrob]

There's a pothole on my street could do with seeing to.....

A bag of rubble for each Local Authority - to distribute amongst the potholes of their choice.

 

[Bantamzen]

Here are the potential consolation prizes for the North, in alphabetical order:

 

[stuu]

Here are the potential consolation prizes for the North, in alphabetical order:

I see the speech has leaked

 

[SuspectUsual]

It’s got to the stage where I’m beginning to think a set of typically talentless but cocky contestants off the Apprentice are running the country

 

[RobShipway]

According to the BBC the Prime Minister will not be pressured into saying that the section between Birmingham to Manchester will be scrapped. I do want if this is where Northern Powerhouse steps in with other projects being announced to help make the link between HS2 in Birmingham and getting trains to Manchester and beyond.

I've noticed that government ministers today have been quoting a figure of £33 billion rail investment in the North. Setting aside for a moment that I don't believe the £33bn figure, in the unlikely event that it is true there's almost nothing to show for it.

Do we know what period that £33 billion is over? If it is over the last 2 - 5 years, then you have had new trains in the form of class 195, 331 with Northern, MK5A, class 397, 802 with TPE. The new stock I suspect would be a good part of the budget and also possibly any money set aside for Northern's new trains once they have been ordered.

You also have classes 805, 807, 810 being introduced soon that will be serving Cities and towns in the north from London.

 

[Bantamzen]

According to the BBC the Prime Minister will not be pressured into saying that the section between Birmingham to Manchester will be scrapped. I do want if this is where Northern Powerhouse steps in with other projects being announced to help make the link between HS2 in Birmingham and getting trains to Manchester and beyond.

Translated from Political-Speak this means:

"The decision is made, you'll just have to wait for when we are ready to tell you what this is!".

 

[SuspectUsual]

Do we know what period that £33 billion is over? If it is over the last 2 - 5 years, then you have had new trains in the form of class 195, 331 with Northern, MK5A, class 397, 802 with TPE. The new stock I suspect would be a good part of the budget and also possibly any money set aside for Northern's new trains once they have been ordered.

You also have classes 805, 807, 810 being introduced soon that will be serving Cities and towns in the north from London

But they are leased by the DfT-funded TOCs, aren't they?

So if the £33 billion did include the new trains, either they're lifetime costs bundled up into a single headline-grabbing number or they're counting someone else's investment

Or am I missing something?

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

I'd be over the moon if Fleetwood reopened.

 

[Energy]

A bag of rubble for each Local Authority - to distribute amongst the potholes of their choice.

Knowing this government they'll cut it to half a bag of rubble and call it Northern Gravelhouse Rubble

 

[MontyP]

If HS2 is going to stop at Handsacre and trains continue on the existing line, then somehow the remaining bottlenecks on the WCML need to be alleviated as much as possible. For example, grade-separation at Colwich. Is there a reason why this wasn't done as part of the WCML upgrade, other than money?

 

[52290]

I'd be over the moon if Fleetwood reopened.

I'd be twice over the moon if it connected with a sailing to Douglas and the UK government paid for the reopening of the Peel line.

 

[Farigiraf]

A pothole fund seems to have been mentioned.

This is all we're going to get (out of spite they'll probably blow the whole 20billion or so saved on it )

 

[The Planner]

If HS2 is going to stop at Handsacre and trains continue on the existing line, then somehow the remaining bottlenecks on the WCML need to be alleviated as much as possible. For example, grade-separation at Colwich. Is there a reason why this wasn't done as part of the WCML upgrade, other than money?

Money, and HS2 phase 2A runs on the majority of the solution that was the Stafford by-pass.

 

[Peter Sarf]

Knowing this government they'll cut it to half a bag of rubble and call it Northern Gravelhouse Rubble

And the bag cut in half will mean it can be shared equally with the North getting the top half of the bag .

Hang on I have twigged NPR means Northern right, Birmingham is North of Watford so NPR need to pay for the bit North of Birmingham. Us Southerners have already splashed out way beyond Watford .

 

[Luke McDonnell]

Could electrification of the CLC be included you would only need to electrify from Hunts Cross to Trafford Park and you would take most of the diesel working out of Lime Street especially with the use of bi modes.

And possibly (although maybe less likely than the CLC due to Disley and Totley tunnels) the Hope Valley line or the Rose Hill Marple route what out of these would be the best candidate for the wires in terms of business case/CBR - the CLC bus be high up that list

 

[6Gman]

Having a background in both the railway and politics I suspect the following will happen:

1. In his speech Sunak will say that the project budget is out of control and the cost of Handsacre-Manchester cannot be justified when there are cheaper ways of reaching a similar effect.
2. However, stopping at Old Oak Common makes no sense and therefore Euston will go ahead to a lower spec.
3. This will save £30bn and the government will study better ways of using such a huge figure.
4. He will list a few schemes (that have already been announced) and then list some further schemes that the government will review.

Subsequently, beyond a few token gestures, nothing will happen before the General Election following which it will all start again from scratch.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 3 Oct 2023 ==

Could electrification of the CLC be included you would only need to electrify from Hunts Cross to Trafford Park and you would take most of the diesel working out of Lime Street especially with the use of bi modes.

And possibly (although maybe less likely than the CLC due to Disley and Totley tunnels) the Hope Valley line or the Rose Hill Marple route what out of these would be the best candidate for the wires in terms of business case/CBR - the CLC bus be high up that list

Since Marple sits in a Conservative-Liberal Democrat marginal I think there's every prospect of the government committing itself fully to . . . a feasibility study.

 

[Brush 4]

Not speculation anymore.....

First consolation prize - North Wales electrification

 

[6Gman]

Not speculation anymore.....

First consolation prize - North Wales electrification

Given the number of Tory marginals along that line naked political opportunism.

The business case is zilch.

(And I say that as 6G man!)

 

[Snow1964]

Not speculation anymore.....

First consolation prize - North Wales electrification

£1bn allocated to it, according to Government press release

PM redirects HS2 funding to revolutionise transport across the North and Midlands

A revolution in the country’s transport infrastructure will see billions of pounds redirected from spiralling HS2 costs to build the daily connections that people depend on – unlocking potential, driving growth and transforming communities.

www.gov.uk

 

[yorksrob]

Undoubtedly some interesting ideas announced. Looks like further electrification of trans-pennine as an example.

Mentions train line reopenings in the North, although none are actually mentioned by name (Ivanhoe line is mentioned for ) so would want to know what lines they're committing to.

Similarly with the rather nebulous "rail improvements in the SW" mentioned (would have been a good opportunity to mention Tavistock).

The Government would have been in a stronger position with this announcement if it had made some attempt to run the existing railway over the past couple of years.

 

[HSTEd]

£1bn allocated to it, according to Government press release

PM redirects HS2 funding to revolutionise transport across the North and Midlands

A revolution in the country’s transport infrastructure will see billions of pounds redirected from spiralling HS2 costs to build the daily connections that people depend on – unlocking potential, driving growth and transforming communities.

www.gov.uk

That's something like 330 single track kilometres.

Not much room for cost escalation over previously established norms to get it done for a billion pounds. ie. colour my skeptical that it can be done by this railway.