How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[trebor79]

New York isn’t. As for Texas, Florida etc - is this a first wave or a second wave? Not sure.

The death toll in the UK is horrific and, in part, an indictment of our Government. But, if the virus regains strength it will be interesting (and awful) to see whether it bites hardest on those who cocooned themselves more thoroughly than the UK, first time around.

If you look at the WHO situation reports (published daily), it's clear that globally, the epidemic is still in the first wave, it hasn't even begun to plateau yet.
I'm very concerned about the mad rush to reopen international travel.

 

[Domh245]

New York isn’t. As for Texas, Florida etc - is this a first wave or a second wave? Not sure.

Texas and Florida definitely didn't have a clear 'first wave' - they both sat at a consistent (low-ish) level and in recent weeks have seen massive increases.

(Texas had a peak of 1441 cases on 10/4/20 and then hovered around the high hundreds, slowly increasing until sudden increase in cases ~early June. Florida had a very similar pattern)

 

[talldave]

I wonder what portion of the population are in the "underlying health conditions " category? There's obviously less of them following wave 1, so you wonder if we're all pointlessly distancing from people who aren't at risk because our chances of encountering them out and about is infinitesimally small?

 

[Richard Scott]

If you look at the WHO situation reports (published daily), it's clear that globally, the epidemic is still in the first wave, it hasn't even begun to plateau yet.
I'm very concerned about the mad rush to reopen international travel.

The countries with high rates are off of the list. The total daily rises are percentage wise very small in any of the countries that we can visit without quarantine. I'm concerned about Government dragging their feet to get everything moving again, long term damage to the economy is vastly more worrying.

 

[Class 33]

Additionally, another clue to the government intending to retain social distancing for many months yet. The government have said theatres will not be allowed to re-open with full capacity until next year. When exactly next year that will be they haven't said. But if this is the case, well that obviously means they intend to retain social distancing until at least January!!!! This is absolutely insane!!! The number of new cases and deaths is continuing to decline now. But in the meantime whilst this social distancing is still in force, more and more business are shedding jobs, more and more people are becoming unemployed and with very little chance of finding further employment, more and more businesses are having to close down permanently as it's not financially viable for them to run with significantly reduced capacity. This is just absolute madness! Godknows what this country is going to be like by next year if this social distancing is still going on! Please, providing the number of new cases and deaths are continuing to fall on a 7 day rolling average, let's scrap social distancing on 1st September. We just can't go on too much longer like this!

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think you like many others are missing that if we abolish SD the cases will rocket again. It needs to be in place until another thing is available to stop it, namely either a vaccine or effective treatment which would reduce death rates to a similar level to seasonal flu and would considerably shorten time in hospital.

 

[yorkie]

I think you like many others are missing that if we abolish SD the cases will rocket again. It needs to be in place until another thing is available to stop it, namely either a vaccine or effective treatment which would reduce death rates to a similar level to seasonal flu and would considerably shorten time in hospital.

Most people in most settings are not socially distancing; certainly not to 2m distances, so this claim is surely without merit, otherwise how do you explain this?

The vast majority of people I am near to in most settings come well within 2m of me, and hardly anyone is bothered about that any more. If I see someone visibly trying to keep distance, I go along with it, but the number of people doing that now is absolutely miniscule.

It's only 'enforced' (don't forget it's a guideline, not law!) in certain settings e.g. when queuing to go into a shop.

 

[Class 33]

I've noticed when walking around urban areas, a fair number(but reduced compared to a few weeks+ ago) of people are still sticking to 2 metre social distancing when passing me and others. Although I generally stick to 1 metre now when passing people. But in the town centre shopping area where there are lots more people about now, it's practically impossible and ridiculous now to keep swerving/moving back or whatever to pass people at 2 metres. And it appears most people in these areas don't mind if people pass them at less than 2 metres, and also don't attempt to pass others at 2 metres.

Yet more job cuts and companies closing down will be announced this week I expect. All mostly due to these social distancing guidelines/restrictions. The government will have to realise this can't go on for much longer.

We can't keep this going until there is a vaccine. As that could be a year away yet, if atall!

 

[Richard Scott]

I think you like many others are missing that if we abolish SD the cases will rocket again. It needs to be in place until another thing is available to stop it, namely either a vaccine or effective treatment which would reduce death rates to a similar level to seasonal flu and would considerably shorten time in hospital.

I'd be quite willing to bet it won't.

 

[High Dyke]

This is indeed the problem, we (as in the country) have dug ourselves into a hole with no way of striking a happy medium. On the one hand the government successfully scared the you-know-what out of enough of the population to mean that there will be a significant proportion that will not accept any easements until / if a vaccine comes into view. And on the other are the growing number of people finding themselves at more & more of a disadvantage, from not being able to see family & friends through to literally losing their livelihoods. So the government are now at a "damned if they do, damned if they don't" scenario which is why they are flapping about trying to satisfy both sides, and completely failing.

But the bottom line (literally) remains the same. The longer the lockdown goes on, the worse the economic situation will get, the more people will lose their jobs. This will not sit well with a growing proportion of the population, especially given that the headline figures indicate that the infection is slowing, despite threats of local spikes & lockdowns. This is not a good combination, as more people start to question the strategy & what exactly the aim is whilst seeing their lives getting considerably more difficult. Even on these forums there has been a noticeable shift in opinion from a general consensus in favour of the measures, to an increasing pushback as the restrictions seem to go on and on. Out in the rest of the country tempers are starting to wear thin, too much more of this & I suspect that people will start to make their voices heard. Certainly in countries like Italy, the continued start-stop of easements in some of the poorer areas is starting to spark civil unrest.

Coronavirus riots break out in Italian town where cases have surged

Police violently clashed with protesters in an Italian town which has become a hotspot for the virus.

metro.co.uk

Its only one example, but there really is only so far you can push people with a lot to lose. At the very beginning I did wonder if we would see similar things happening here, and whilst I have been somewhat surprised that it generally hasn't there have been isolated incidents of civil unrest that point to an growing anger. Its something I am always very aware of, I remember living in the heart of one of the flashpoints during the Bradford riots of 2001, and the sense of growing anxiety about the current situation tempered with people really starting to suffer feels very much the same as what it felt like in the weeks & months leading up to the devastating riots at the turn of this century. Now I am not saying it is definitely going to happen, but the division between the people content with & able to cope with more lockdown, and those that are not able to cope & thus not content is growing, and it is these kind divisions that spark feelings of injustice & in turn unrest.

I know first hand what it is like to find yourself in an increasingly difficult position, whilst I am continuing to work from home my wife is self-employed and has basically been furloughed up until a few weeks ago. It has cost us literally thousands thus far, and whilst we've been able to cut the cloth accordingly we are approaching the position where we need the business back up and running. Not only from a personal point of view, but to ensure that she doesn't lose any business, which is becoming a greater risk. I've already lost my temper with some of my social media network over this, and always with people quite content and able to cope with a long lockdown. Because they feel safe & secure, they are simply unable to understand why other people might not to the point that they just say "oh well if someone loses a job, they can just get another" and refuse to accept that a slowing economy means fewer jobs. One even went so far as to claim that reports of job losses were fake, even though other people on the same network have told them they have lost their jobs!

So the government really doesn't have a choice, a failing economy means failing taxes, which mean failing services. They mustn't be distracted by those demanding indefinite lockdown, they have a responsibility to all citizens and so need to push on carefully but forcibly to get us moving again. The consequences of not doing so are unthinkable, even though some will argue otherwise.

Good post.

 

[Class 33]

Also to add to my post. I witnessed a queue for a fish and chip shop in the town centre yesterday. And EVERYONE was standing at probably a little less than 1 metre apart! The public are gradually drifting away and losing patience now with social distancing.

 

[Huntergreed]

I think, in my opinion, it’s time to abolish outdoor social distancing. We’ve seen the protests, bank holiday weekends, VE Day, Bournemouth beach (which had 500,000 not distancing, that’s almost 1% of the population!) and there’s been no notable increase in these situations with absolutely no social distancing.

Indoors, I think it’s time to move to 1m for the meantime until we get things down a little further, but SD isn’t a long term viable solution, it just costs too much economically and makes the operation of many industries impossible. I would like to think SD could be scrapped, with the current trajectory, around September.

 

[LAX54]

I agree with fellow members that 'social distancing' is rapidly breaking down in peoples 'private' lives and is frankly impractical on a lot of our streets and paths. People are though still trying to be respectful round here and I personally try and give people who seem panicked as wide a berth as possible, with the caveat that I will not place myself in danger i.e. walk into a road or such to do it. I suspect many people have done a personal risk assessment.

The danger of course is many companies will have to stick to these sometimes ludicrous 'covid secure' guidelines. I've said elsewhere on this forum that even my public sector organisation is undertaking mental gymnastics to try and comply with this stuff. To my mind, in the medium term this will probably render a lot of the economy unviable, and I am aware of management grade friends in private companies looking at increased automation and outsourcing to lower cost base countries in their facilities. The covid-zealots might not like what is coming economically! On that note, a lot will probably depend on what our European neighbours do - if they start to unwind these measures more quickly than the UK, that isn't going to leave us in a very competitive situation - and I was speaking today to collaborators on the mainland who are charging back to near-normality as we speak...

Hopefully, someone like Sunak will sit BoJo down, and explain this to him, forcibly...

Surely the best idea is be 'thinking of others' ? no mask, no enforced 1m / 2m or whatever, just be courteous and give a little space, and don't cough or sneeze over anyone.....well like it should be everyday really ! see there was a bit on AOL today, a woman in tears after leaving hairdressers as the person doing her hair did not wear a shield...surely that is the worst thing they could wear ? breath or a cough, condensation runs diown the mask and everything..breathing as well is directed downwards...onto the customer !

 

[LAX54]

New York isn’t. As for Texas, Florida etc - is this a first wave or a second wave? Not sure.

The death toll in the UK is horrific and, in part, an indictment of our Government. But, if the virus regains strength it will be interesting (and awful) to see whether it bites hardest on those who cocooned themselves more thoroughly than the UK, first time around.

altjough the death toll, so it has been reported, from ilness is currently at a 5 year low !

 

[talldave]

Surely the best idea is be 'thinking of others' ? no mask, no enforced 1m / 2m or whatever, just be courteous and give a little space, and don't cough or sneeze over anyone.....well like it should be everyday really ! see there was a bit on AOL today, a woman in tears after leaving hairdressers as the person doing her hair did not wear a shield...surely that is the worst thing they could wear ? breath or a cough, condensation runs diown the mask and everything..breathing as well is directed downwards...onto the customer !

Sadly the government thinks we're not capable of using common sense, so we end up with stupid laws/guidelines instead.

 

[317 forever]

Also to add to my post. I witnessed a queue for a fish and chip shop in the town centre yesterday. And EVERYONE was standing at probably a little less than 1 metre apart! The public are gradually drifting away and losing patience now with social distancing.

I similarly noticed a queue outside Primark this morning where people were barely a metre apart, if that.

 

[6Gman]

Most people in most settings are not socially distancing; certainly not to 2m distances, so this claim is surely without merit, otherwise how do you explain this?

The vast majority of people I am near to in most settings come well within 2m of me, and hardly anyone is bothered about that any more. If I see someone visibly trying to keep distance, I go along with it, but the number of people doing that now is absolutely miniscule.

It's only 'enforced' (don't forget it's a guideline, not law!) in certain settings e.g. when queuing to go into a shop.

Perhaps it varies from place to place but round here social distancing is definitely still widely practised.

 

[Skymonster]

I similarly noticed a queue outside Primark this morning where people were barely a metre apart, if that.

Oh no!!! Think of the human tragedy that might mean. Looks like the world might end tomorrow too.

(The above was sarcasm, by the way)

 

[Huntergreed]

Oh no!!! Think of the human tragedy that might mean. Looks like the world might end tomorrow too.

(The above was sarcasm, by the way)

Sadly, a good proportion of social media users are commenting and posting things like this every minute, and there's absolutely nothing sarcastic about it!

You'd almost think that we were all going around carrying 2m long knives and anyone who comes within 2m gets it, it's truly crazy!!

 

[ChrisC]

Perhaps it varies from place to place but round here social distancing is definitely still widely practised.

That could very well be true. I wonder if people are more likely to be socially distancing in rural areas and in smaller towns where there is more space. In my village, it has been easy to stand over 2 metres away from people and have a conversation because there is space on the pavements and during the first part of the lockdown no traffic. I went into Newark on Friday and everyone seemed to be socially distancing around the market and town centre including queuing outside shops. Everyone was keeping their distance but not in the extreme way that people were at the beginning of the lockdown. It was my first venture into a town of any size and I found it a very pleasant and friendly experience but it was a warm sunny morning. I can’t imagine it being so easy in a larger crowded city with busy roads and narrow pavements. The only people I have seen not socially distancing around here have been groups of teenagers gathering in parks.

 

[Belperpete]

I think, in my opinion, it’s time to abolish outdoor social distancing. We’ve seen the protests, bank holiday weekends, VE Day, Bournemouth beach (which had 500,000 not distancing, that’s almost 1% of the population!) and there’s been no notable increase in these situations with absolutely no social distancing.

Indoors, I think it’s time to move to 1m for the meantime until we get things down a little further, but SD isn’t a long term viable solution, it just costs too much economically and makes the operation of many industries impossible. I would like to think SD could be scrapped, with the current trajectory, around September.

I tend to agree with you about the need for outdoor social distancing. There is very little chance of catching something off someone that you pass momentarily in the street. BUT, it is the "give someone and inch and they'll take a mile" syndrome. The social distancing requirement means that people are at least making some effort to stay apart, even if not 2m. Remove the requirement, and you will have someone breathing down your neck while queuing.

The aim must be to get schools and childcare open normally, without social distancing, for the autumn term. Parents will then be able to return to work. The more restrictions that are lifted now, the slower the numbers will come down, and the less likely we will be to hit that critical target. I would far rather we keep some restrictions now, than miss that target.

 

[Belperpete]

That could very well be true. I wonder if people are more likely to be socially distancing in rural areas and in smaller towns where there is more space. In my village, it has been easy to stand over 2 metres away from people and have a conversation because there is space on the pavements and during the first part of the lockdown no traffic. I went into Newark on Friday and everyone seemed to be socially distancing around the market and town centre including queuing outside shops. Everyone was keeping their distance but not in the extreme way that people were at the beginning of the lockdown. It was my first venture into a town of any size and I found it a very pleasant and friendly experience but it was a warm sunny morning. I can’t imagine it being so easy in a larger crowded city with busy roads and narrow pavements. The only people I have seen not socially distancing around here have been groups of teenagers gathering in parks.

People have a herd mentality. If most other people are social distancing, you will tend to social distance as well. If most other people are not social distancing, then you will tend to think why should I?

 

[Belperpete]

Yet more job cuts and companies closing down will be announced this week I expect. All mostly due to these social distancing guidelines/restrictions. The government will have to realise this can't go on for much longer.

I am getting just a bit tired of this constant economic disaster-mongering. At the start of lockdown, I was as worried about the economic consequences as the health consequences. But, as it turns out, investors are queuing up to pay the government to borrow their money. Not a single business that I am aware of in my town has closed permanently due to lockdown. Yes, there has been a rash of reports in the news recently of big businesses closing, but this has been prompted by the winding-down of the furloughing arrangements, not by social distancing requirements. And almost every one of them is a business that was struggling anyway, like Intu and Boots Opticians. All that the lockdown has done is bring forward their demise. Hopefully, once the dead-wood has been stripped out, our economy will be leaner and fitter.

 

[birchesgreen]

That's nice for your town, i'm sure the 20% drop in GDP, the big cut in tax take and resulting increase in benefits, the costs of thousands of lives being thrown into turmoil and uncertainty won't affect you and your town in the slightest.

 

[Enthusiast]

Not a single business that I am aware of in my town has closed permanently due to lockdown.

Well they have in mine. Two small restaurants (family run) have bitten the dust; at least two barbers have not yet re-opened (and don't look like doing so); our branches of Rymans and Edinburgh Wool Mill remain closed, the local market has only about a half of the regular stallholders attending; even our branch of Greggs has permanently closed. That's before I look in any detail. Mrs Enthusiast and I went for our first meal out in 17 weeks last Saturday - our favourite Chinese which we have been frequenting for probably 25 years. He is also a family affair - husband, wife and son. Speaking to him he said he was on the point of winding up. Another week or two would have done for him definitely. Now he's had to lose a third of his tables due to the "guidance" and he said it will be touch and go whether he survives. The good thing was he was near enough full (well two-thirds full anyway) which surprised me given the fear that the government instilled in the population four months ago. Some of the shops that are open have imposed absolutely ridiculous distancing requirements and I imagine many of them will eventually go under. To under play the economic consequences of social distancing is, IMHO, far worse than downplaying the risks posed by the virus. The UK economy relies very heavily on small businesses, especially retail and hospitality and they have been and continue to be absolutely crippled by some of this nonsense.

 

[LAX54]

I think you like many others are missing that if we abolish SD the cases will rocket again. It needs to be in place until another thing is available to stop it, namely either a vaccine or effective treatment which would reduce death rates to a similar level to seasonal flu and would considerably shorten time in hospital.

and if there is never a vaccine ? I also like others doubt there will be a surge if we do not SD, figures are still falling, yet many said it was the end of the World in the May Bank Holidays when most beaches were packed to the rafters !, and whilst seasonal flu takes fewer, the amount that die can still be many many thousands, but that is accepted, we are also at a 5 year low for deaths from illnesses too, according to the TV news a couple of weeks ago
The loinger SD goes on the deeper in the mire the UK (and World) will get.

 

[island]

I agree with fellow members that 'social distancing' is rapidly breaking down in peoples 'private' lives and is frankly impractical on a lot of our streets and paths. People are though still trying to be respectful round here and I personally try and give people who seem panicked as wide a berth as possible, with the caveat that I will not place myself in danger i.e. walk into a road or such to do it. I suspect many people have done a personal risk assessment.

I've noticed when walking around urban areas, a fair number(but reduced compared to a few weeks+ ago) of people are still sticking to 2 metre social distancing when passing me and others. Although I generally stick to 1 metre now when passing people. But in the town centre shopping area where there are lots more people about now, it's practically impossible and ridiculous now to keep swerving/moving back or whatever to pass people at 2 metres. And it appears most people in these areas don't mind if people pass them at less than 2 metres, and also don't attempt to pass others at 2 metres.

That’s missing the point. Being within a metre or two of someone for a few seconds whilst you pass them on the pavement is not problematic. The risk factor is being within that distance for over 15 minutes. Stepping out into the carriageway to keep a wider distance is a higher risk.

The government has taken a stance that means its policies must not be perceived to risk even one covid death directly (isn't hindsight a wonderful thing) and is pushing all else aside to maintain that position.

This approach (forget the economy, forget everyone else, COVID19 deaths must be kept to zero) is, as you say, profoundly damaging.

 

[Reliablebeam]

That’s missing the point. Being within a metre or two of someone for a few seconds whilst you pass them on the pavement is not problematic. The risk factor is being within that distance for over 15 minutes. Stepping out into the carriageway to keep a wider distance is a higher risk.

This approach (forget the economy, forget everyone else, COVID19 deaths must be kept to zero) is, as you say, profoundly damaging.

I agree, and it's interesting to read other members experiences. Round here, some people are very 'gung-ho' whereas others will leap into farmers planted fields or busy roads to avoid you. I'd say it's a 60:40 split between the two - my town is well within London commuter land and socially/demographically pretty mixed. Sometimes, 'at risk' demographics seem to be the worst offenders for not at least trying to maintain any kind of distance even when they can. I've been going into London fairly regularly over the last few weeks - some people in my town, their heads would explode if they could see the London version of 'social distancing'!!

 

[Mugby]

I think you like many others are missing that if we abolish SD the cases will rocket again. It needs to be in place until another thing is available to stop it, namely either a vaccine or effective treatment which would reduce death rates to a similar level to seasonal flu and would considerably shorten time in hospital.

Here we go again - or here you go again. How exactly do you know this?

 

[al78]

I think, in my opinion, it’s time to abolish outdoor social distancing. We’ve seen the protests, bank holiday weekends, VE Day, Bournemouth beach (which had 500,000 not distancing, that’s almost 1% of the population!) and there’s been no notable increase in these situations with absolutely no social distancing.

It is funny that I have never seen it mentioned in the media any spike in COVID cases as a result of any of those examples. It is as if the media are only interested in broadcasting bad news.