How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

[ashworth]

It's going to have to change sometime. As an example, I manage an office and asked the BEIS and my MP when office workers will be allowed to return. Response was that they 'need' to reduce the number of people interacting with each other, and that office workers will be 'encouraged' to work from home for the foreseeable future as they need to keep the R number across society as a whole below 1.

As for guidance in churches - I am involved in one and the guidance makes it unworkable! Basically it's no community singing, no wind instruments "apart from Organs that need to be cleaned", and services to be kept to a minimum! I get that there is some concern other singing, but the rest of the guidance makes opening the place of worship a nightmare!

I agree that the guidance for reopening places of worship is extremely complicated and especially for many churches with small elderly congregations it will be unworkable.
Will all these guidelines for churches regarding social distancing, cleaning and sanitising, not touching anything that anyone else has touched within 72 hours, no singing etc still be in position at Christmas. If so it is going to be a very depressing Christmas in churches with no carol singing, no Midnight Mass and no Christingles and nativity plays. It is recommended that the 2 metre social distancing remains during public worship because people will be near other people for well over the 15 minutes and probably over 30 minutes. Face covering isn't compulsory but is recommended in some circumstances.

The lockdown completely closed all places of worship and certainly in many diocese of the Church of England buildings have not just been closed, but completely shut down with instructions to make safe and turn off all gas, electricity and water. Even the the local vicar has not been allowed to go into the church building to say prayers. Many church goers where quite distressed when they saw more and more shops opening, markets, garden centres, and even football matches and horse racing starting and yet the church doors remained locked until recently even for private prayer. It was often very distressing when even a small group of immediate family only could not even go into the church for a funeral. Many people could have been really helped and their mental health improved if they had been allowed into our churches and cathedrals to say a prayer and light a candle during this very difficult time. Now that churches are permitted to open for private prayer, and from tomorrow for public worship, the guidance that has to be followed is just way beyond what many of the unpaid volunteers who run our churches can manage. I know of many that have not yet opened and have no immediate plans to do so because regulations are so restricting and complex. Also many of our churches, often large ancient buildings, have received very little income during the last 3 months. If social distancing and all these regulations have to stay in place for more than a few months I think there will be many of our ancient parish churches that will find it difficult to function beyond Christmas, especially if they have no money to heat these huge buildings.

 

[LAX54]

When I go for walks to go shopping or just go out for a walk, having to frequently "socially distance" and swerve to be about 2 metres away from any passing people, it reminds me of playing old video games from the 80's and 90's having to avoid the aliens, monsters, or whatever! I've taken some different routes, gone into different zones to add some variety. But I'm just well and truly bored of this game now! It's very tedious! It's just the same old thing. I've played it to death now!

But of course distancing, was only stated as needed by WHO if you were in close proximity of someone for 'more than 15 mins'

There was also an interesting news report on BBC News last week, and only saw it once, did not see it repeated on later bulletins, some High up Doctor type person was explaining the number of deaths, and said that the current week, and the previous week, had seen a 'lower than normal' amount for the time of year, oddly it was not shown again (as far as I know)

 

[Uncle Buck]

The bit that made me laugh was "you can go into someone else's house, or have someone round your house, so long as you stay 2m apart". Yeah, right, like anyone is actually going to do that. Just illustrates that all this rubbish is being stabbed to in committee rooms with no thought as to practicalities. We see that with the constantly changing and obviously unworkable 'plans'for getting children back into school too.

Interesting article about dexamethasone in private eye. It would appear the data was cherry picked.

I can't be alone in wondering what happens when all of these infected people go to other nearby cities for their haircuts, night out and non-essential shopping. Unless it's a China style city is completely cut off from the rest of the country, it's more likely to spread rather than contain, isn't it?

In all honesty, we DID try and distance in the house and not to touch things un-necessarily. But to my mind that’s taking reasonable precautions in the knowledge that the virus is still out there. Scared of the virus? Don’t go to pubs, cafes etc, and be careful about who comes into your house. But it’s no justification, at this stage, for putting a bomb under the economy.

Of course, I may eat my words-hopefully not though!

Agree with you re: schools; impossible to control small children. Up here the new school year is starting as normal (the Scottish school year runs August to June) with normal classes.

 

[bramling]

I'm starting to wonder if social distance is making much difference at all considering that so many people are ignoring it.

Ultimately C19 must have been spreading *somewhere*. Presumably pubs, clubs and workplaces were likely culprits, as they’re all places where people mix at fairly close range and at times for extended periods. By breaking these links this would be essentially confining C19 cases to those who have been working (but mitigated by distancing), and apart from that within households.

In that sense the two biggest challenges we yet face are pubs and clubs re-opening, and perhaps more people returning to open-plan offices. Squaring these two holes may prove challenging, and yes this may ultimately show that a lot of the social distancing is only chipping away at the margins.

There is of course one other elephant in the room, which is of course public transport. Apart from a few specific places and times this hasn’t been packing people in since March, and at some stage we’re going to be back in the cold and flu season. What will happen then and what social distancing applies will presumably be determined by how many infections are still circulating.

 

[Jonny]

I can't be alone in wondering what happens when all of these infected people go to other nearby cities for their haircuts, night out and non-essential shopping. Unless it's a China style city is completely cut off from the rest of the country, it's more likely to spread rather than contain, isn't it?

Also, China has mass tracking anyway so they can monitor everyone travelling.

 

[Jonny]

For every person who is ignoring the rules and for every person who wants the social distancing stopping, there are of course the complete opposite who want everyone back in lockdown.

If the government did remove it, all we would here from every opinion in the media would be ‘second wave’, ‘reductions too soon’ etc etc so they basically can’t win

The media like to make themselves the centre of the story and to try to make us feel guilty about a high death count. It's unfortunate for the friends and family of the deceased, but we cannot allow ourselves to be paralysed by guilt.

Indeed the transport network and people using it, can't really get back to normal whilst this social distancing is still going on. To accommodate social distancing, on single decker buses only about 10 seats are available to use and on double deckers only about 20 seats are available to use! It's insane if it carries on like this for months on end! And what about in September when the schools go back and a load of kids going to school and back, take up all the seats!

And yes having to wear a mask on trains, coaches and buses is not exactly very pleasant! Many people would not be keen on going on journeys of a couple of hours or more and having to wear masks!

Sooner all this insane nonsense is over, the better.

I wonder if the TOCs will be so keen on masks etc. when it is starting to cost them discretionary custom. We cannot afford to pander to people's fears.

 

[Bantamzen]

Problem is that people are going to keep worrying about a 'second wave' until we drop the fear-mongering through announcing lockdowns, daily deaths, mandating masks etc.

If there isn't one, people are going to live in constant fear that there is going to be one. If there is one, people are going to live in constant fear of a 'third wave' (and if there is one, a 'fourth wave' and so on...)

There really isn't a good way out of this unless we try to calm the locktivists down, which I imagine is extremely difficult given how we've spent 3 and a half months deliberately overstating risks so they will comply with the lockdown.

The government thought that people wouldn't comply readily enough, in actual fact the opposite was true and people were and still are too willing to live under restrictions for years to come.

Personally, I can't see how economically viable it is beyond a few more months, however I think it's very clear that the government are planning on it being a long term solution (at least a year), which will in itself cause untold damage to the economy and livelihoods.

This is indeed the problem, we (as in the country) have dug ourselves into a hole with no way of striking a happy medium. On the one hand the government successfully scared the you-know-what out of enough of the population to mean that there will be a significant proportion that will not accept any easements until / if a vaccine comes into view. And on the other are the growing number of people finding themselves at more & more of a disadvantage, from not being able to see family & friends through to literally losing their livelihoods. So the government are now at a "damned if they do, damned if they don't" scenario which is why they are flapping about trying to satisfy both sides, and completely failing.

But the bottom line (literally) remains the same. The longer the lockdown goes on, the worse the economic situation will get, the more people will lose their jobs. This will not sit well with a growing proportion of the population, especially given that the headline figures indicate that the infection is slowing, despite threats of local spikes & lockdowns. This is not a good combination, as more people start to question the strategy & what exactly the aim is whilst seeing their lives getting considerably more difficult. Even on these forums there has been a noticeable shift in opinion from a general consensus in favour of the measures, to an increasing pushback as the restrictions seem to go on and on. Out in the rest of the country tempers are starting to wear thin, too much more of this & I suspect that people will start to make their voices heard. Certainly in countries like Italy, the continued start-stop of easements in some of the poorer areas is starting to spark civil unrest.

Coronavirus riots break out in Italian town where cases have surged

Police violently clashed with protesters in an Italian town which has become a hotspot for the virus.

metro.co.uk

Police violently clashed with protesters in an Italian town which has become a hotspot for the virus. The chaos in Mondragone, near Naples, was sparked by the appearance of Italy’s far-right leader, Matteo Salvini, who was pelted with eggs by the angry crowd. Police officers lashed out at the protesters with batons and riot shields, leaving one man with blood dripping down his face. Tensions in Mondragone are rising over a surge in cases at a flat block occupied by hundreds of migrant workers.

Last week, the authorities announced that more than 40 migrants living in the abandoned building had tested positive for the virus, and warned the entire town could be quarantined if the outbreak spreads. Visit our live blog for the latest updates: Coronavirus news live The buildings were sealed off but a group of residents defied the order to stay put, marching through the town in protest at what they said was racist discrimination.

Its only one example, but there really is only so far you can push people with a lot to lose. At the very beginning I did wonder if we would see similar things happening here, and whilst I have been somewhat surprised that it generally hasn't there have been isolated incidents of civil unrest that point to an growing anger. Its something I am always very aware of, I remember living in the heart of one of the flashpoints during the Bradford riots of 2001, and the sense of growing anxiety about the current situation tempered with people really starting to suffer feels very much the same as what it felt like in the weeks & months leading up to the devastating riots at the turn of this century. Now I am not saying it is definitely going to happen, but the division between the people content with & able to cope with more lockdown, and those that are not able to cope & thus not content is growing, and it is these kind divisions that spark feelings of injustice & in turn unrest.

I know first hand what it is like to find yourself in an increasingly difficult position, whilst I am continuing to work from home my wife is self-employed and has basically been furloughed up until a few weeks ago. It has cost us literally thousands thus far, and whilst we've been able to cut the cloth accordingly we are approaching the position where we need the business back up and running. Not only from a personal point of view, but to ensure that she doesn't lose any business, which is becoming a greater risk. I've already lost my temper with some of my social media network over this, and always with people quite content and able to cope with a long lockdown. Because they feel safe & secure, they are simply unable to understand why other people might not to the point that they just say "oh well if someone loses a job, they can just get another" and refuse to accept that a slowing economy means fewer jobs. One even went so far as to claim that reports of job losses were fake, even though other people on the same network have told them they have lost their jobs!

So the government really doesn't have a choice, a failing economy means failing taxes, which mean failing services. They mustn't be distracted by those demanding indefinite lockdown, they have a responsibility to all citizens and so need to push on carefully but forcibly to get us moving again. The consequences of not doing so are unthinkable, even though some will argue otherwise.

 

[Smidster]

My assumption is that the where we get to tomorrow (most things open but 1m+) is probably where we end up for at least the rest of the year with local measures being more the norm.

I would expect some tinkering around the edges - allowing gyms to open or allowing a limited crowd into a football match - but distancing will remain in place for a long time to come. Especially as we head toward Autumn / Winter and lose the advantage that comes with the Summer and being able to do more outside.

The only way that changes is if public opinion shifts rapidly and I don't see much evidence of that right now. Perhaps as more of the economic toll becomes apparent some views and risk tolerance will shift but right now it is the health numbers that are dominating.

 

[Jonny]

My assumption is that the where we get to tomorrow (most things open but 1m+) is probably where we end up for at least the rest of the year with local measures being more the norm.

I would expect some tinkering around the edges - allowing gyms to open or allowing a limited crowd into a football match - but distancing will remain in place for a long time to come. Especially as we head toward Autumn / Winter and lose the advantage that comes with the Summer and being able to do more outside.

The only way that changes is if public opinion shifts rapidly and I don't see much evidence of that right now. Perhaps as more of the economic toll becomes apparent some views and risk tolerance will shift but right now it is the health numbers that are dominating.

When it starts to hit the bank accounts is when people will think more about the economy more.

 

[philosopher]

Its only one example, but there really is only so far you can push people with a lot to lose. At the very beginning I did wonder if we would see similar things happening here, and whilst I have been somewhat surprised that it generally hasn't there have been isolated incidents of civil unrest that point to an growing anger. Its something I am always very aware of, I remember living in the heart of one of the flashpoints during the Bradford riots of 2001, and the sense of growing anxiety about the current situation tempered with people really starting to suffer feels very much the same as what it felt like in the weeks & months leading up to the devastating riots at the turn of this century. Now I am not saying it is definitely going to happen, but the division between the people content with & able to cope with more lockdown, and those that are not able to cope & thus not content is growing, and it is these kind divisions that spark feelings of injustice & in turn unrest.

I am surprised too at the level of compliance with the lockdowns. When all the lockdowns first started, my thought were that after a few weeks unrest would grow, mainly driven by young people out of fear of losing their jobs or shear boredom. This however has not happened, which I suspect is due to the furlough scheme and people’s fear of the illness.

That said, I still think there is a risk of civil unrest if the social distancing measures continue. The biggest issue is that for the younger population, the risk from the virus is generally very low, however this group unfortunately are the ones who lose out the most economically and socially. If some young people start to feel that their future prospects are being ignored, then I can certainly see the potential for unrest.

 

[Skymonster]

The government has taken a stance that means its policies must not be perceived to risk even one covid death directly (isn't hindsight a wonderful thing) and is pushing all else aside to maintain that position. I said right at the start of this thing that "the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few" and I was vilified by some for saying so. I stick by my views, and I think 14 weeks down the line a few more people are realising that's the way it will end up being. Sadly, those 14 weeks have taken a hugely damaging toll on the nation's economy, and the well being of those in the population who need medical services for non-covid reasons.

My hope is that this weekend marks the start of some acceptance of realism in government circules with respect to social distancing, etc. However, the Leicester affair gives plenty of room for doubt and suggests that knee-jerk reactions that merely amount to be being seen to be doing something - anything - with total disregard for the long-term consequences will continue to prevail.

 

[Class 33]

There was some glimmer of hope with Boris's speech on Wednesday about the post lockdown recovery plan. I can't find the exact quotes he said, but he said something like "I don't want this country to be where we are constantly having to be metres away from other people for the next year. We aim to get things back to normal as fast as we possibly can.". That's some glimmer of hope. But I'd probably take that with a pinch of salt. Whether he will put action to his words we'll have to see.....

In the meantime though, the UK economy is continually being damaged. More redundancies, more businesses closing down, rising unemployment levels. Not good atall. What the country is going to be like in 6 months time if this social distancing nonsense is still going on, I dread to think.

 

[Jonny]

The government has taken a stance that means its policies must not be perceived to risk even one covid death directly (isn't hindsight a wonderful thing) and is pushing all else aside to maintain that position. I said right at the start of this thing that "the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few" and I was vilified by some for saying so. I stick by my views, and I think 14 weeks down the line a few more people are realising that's the way it will end up being. Sadly, those 14 weeks have taken a hugely damaging toll on the nation's economy, and the well being of those in the population who need medical services for non-covid reasons.

My hope is that this weekend marks the start of some acceptance of realism in government circules with respect to social distancing, etc. However, the Leicester affair gives plenty of room for doubt and suggests that knee-jerk reactions that merely amount to be being seen to be doing something - anything - with total disregard for the long-term consequences will continue to prevail.

I agree in terms of the other healthcare, I postponed a blood test from about March until late May - the only time I left home under lockdown proper (in England). I am putting a recall test off now, but that is for other reasons (to cut down on alcohol and ideally lose some weight).

I also agree in terms of being over-defensive; my personal view is that there may be a vaccine soon (apparently the Oxford team had a head start, combined with work that may have been for SARS/MERS vaccines that was stopped due to the lack of a market, and are now running into a lack of background disease for effectiveness tests (now being tested for effectiveness in Brazil, apparently, possibly ready for Autumn)) and once people decide not to bother, the tide will change. After all, it would then make lockdown measures look like collective punishment.

 

[MikeWM]

I agree that the guidance for reopening places of worship is extremely complicated and especially for many churches with small elderly congregations it will be unworkable.

I was very surprised at how little (ie. none) pushback there has been from churches (and synagogues, mosques, etc.) throughout the last few months. I do wonder how much faith religious leaders actually have given their recent actions. At the grassroots, at least, there have been small acts of rebellion (eg. I know of at least one village church that quietly remained open for private prayer throughout).

My mother's church, for example, is exactly what you describe - a mostly small. mostly elderly congregation. My mother is one of the youngest people there - the majority are in their 70s or over. They can't re-open until 'at least August' because they can't find the extra people required to do all the extra *stuff* that they are told they need to do.

 

[philosopher]

I was very surprised at how little (ie. none) pushback there has been from churches (and synagogues, mosques, etc.) throughout the last few months. I do wonder how much faith religious leaders actually have given their recent actions. At the grassroots, at least, there have been small acts of rebellion (eg. I know of at least one village church that quietly remained open for private prayer throughout).

My mother's church, for example, is exactly what you describe - a mostly small. mostly elderly congregation. My mother is one of the youngest people there - the majority are in their 70s or over. They can't re-open until 'at least August' because they can't find the extra people required to do all the extra *stuff* that they are told they need to do.

Churches and other religious venues do seem to be particular hotspots for infection. The outbreak in South Korea started at a church and I read today in the BBC that in Austria there is another outbreak linked to a church. So I can understand the restrictions related to these places. However are strict social distancing restrictions in these places undermining freedom of religion?

 

[MikeWM]

Churches and other religious venues do seem to be particular hotspots for infection. The outbreak in South Korea started at a church and I read today in the BBC that in Austria there is another outbreak linked to a church. So I can understand the restrictions related to these places.

I can understand the state trying to impose such restrictions. I'd have hoped the religious institutions would have viewed their faith and beliefs as more important than the temporal dictats of the state, but maybe that is expecting too much from religious leaders, who often seem more concerned with politics than grace. But I disgress...

However are strict social distancing restrictions in these places undermining freedom of religion?

Less so than forcing them to remain closed, I suppose, but if the restrictions mean many places cannot reopen, then it still seems to be skating very close to the line. Plus for those places that can reopen, capacity limits will impede many from practicing their religion in the way they always have, historically.

 

[Huntergreed]

Another mention of the 'new normal' from Johnson, along with a reassurance that we will be locked down again if cases rise again, but a plea to 'enjoy summer safely' (safe is subjective)

Sadly it does sound like, whether we think it's viable or not, the planning is still based around social distancing being in place for the long haul.

 

[Master29]

As per the thread title. A piece of string springs to mind.

 

[bramling]

Another mention of the 'new normal' from Johnson, along with a reassurance that we will be locked down again if cases rise again, but a plea to 'enjoy summer safely' (safe is subjective)

Sadly it does sound like, whether we think it's viable or not, the planning is still based around social distancing being in place for the long haul.

I really hate the term "new normal". Whatever way one looks at things, none of this is normal, and nor should it feel so.

One thinks back to some of the security measures introduced after 9/11, which are still with us nearly 20 years later.

 

[C J Snarzell]

I do genuinely feel Boris Johnson is pushing to get the country back to normality but the issue is the 1-5 scale. I believe the UK is at level 3 and for the whole country to go back to how it was six months ago it needs to be at level 1. Unfortunately, it took a long time for us to get from level 4 to level 3 (it was the high end of level 4 close to level 5 when the PM ordered the lockdown on the 23rd March).

From conversations I had with people weeks ago - we all formed the opinion that the country would be back to normal by September but this seems to becoming less and less realistic as time rolls on. It is unlikely gyms will reopen until next month, and even then there is still likely to be strict conditions on using equipment, changing rooms & maximum capacity of people exercising.

I even read a news article about school classrooms being segregated when the new term starts in September so clearly the Education sector is not anticipating normality in two months from now.

I think there will definitely be certain restrictions in place until the end of the year. Shops & businesses will leave glass screens up for a long long time and I have a feeling the circular wall & floor stickers we see everywhere will probably be floating around for years to come but will start to diminish in time when places get cleaned, refurbished or renovated.

I do think people's attitudes to social distancing has become very complacent. Tomorrow (Saturday 4th July) is going to be a potential game changer for the country with senior policing bosses preparing for a New Years Eve style turn out to coincide with the reopening of licenced premises.

We have already seen numerous Black Lives Matters protests, various illegal raves, Bournemouth Beach, the Liverpool FC celebrations which so far do not seem to have impacted on a spike in cases.

My own opinion is that the country has been damaged enough economically by Covid19 and the PM has a duty to protect livelihoods now just as much as lives themselves. The Health Secretary has even stated the current death rate in the UK is now consistent with how it would be this time of year anyway (the death figures for the end of June 2020 were level with those from the end of June 2018 & 19).

Maybe it is time to release the reigns but I very much doubt the government will do this anytime soon.

CJ

 

[Class 33]

Yes I'm sick and tired of seeing/reading the phrase "The new normal". I prefer to call it "The temporary normal", as I really hope it will be fairly temporary. Otherwise if this "The new normal" continues for months and months on end or even indefinitely, then the country is going down fast, both in terms of the economy, and people's lives. It will effect many people's mental health if it goes on like this. Social distancing is restrictive and takes the fun out of life. And those who are unlucky enough to be(or become) unemployed, well there's practically zero chances of getting another job whilst this nonsense goes on, so that will effect their mental health too.

I think surely there should come a point fairly soon this year when it's going to become very apparent that this is absolute madness - many more businesses all over the UK will be closing down as a result of social distancing measures, the transport system won't be able to cope, and it being practically impossible to socially distance. And the government are going to have to let go of this social distancing. We can't continue like this longterm. It's absolutely insane.

However in Boris's speech today, some glimmer of hope again from him about the future of social distancing. He mentioned and I quote "..... Social distancing is still essential. I want these restrictions to end as soon as possible.". So that's two hints from him this week that he does want social distancing to be lifted as soon as circumstances allow. But we'll have to see. Would help if the volumes of new cases and deaths continue to fall. They are still falling, albeit at a much more gradual rate now.

 

[AM9]

I really hate the term "new normal". Whatever way one looks at things, none of this is normal, and nor should it feel so.

One thinks back to some of the security measures introduced after 9/11, which are still with us nearly 20 years later.

Those security measures are the new normal in that sphere. I was in Chicago when the WTC was attacked, and 6 days later managed to fly home. The gate was a scene to behold. One 'arch' was in use with a long sinuous queue of passengers. The few Europeans on the flight had by the time they reached the front of the queue, put all of their possesions from their pockets in the trays, taken their shoes off, and when called forward, passed through without slowing down. That was because most of the major european nations had prior experience of terrorist action and such security was already part of their normal. The locals however all had to make 2 or 3 passes through the checks, each time finding more things in their pockets, and tucked into other pockets of their luggage. That was their 'new normal', which they now mostly do as second nature.
So it will be with measures to prevent infection, so long as the nature of the virus makes it necessary. Some may not like the term 'new normal' but it's ceertain that somethings will change forever, and others will change on a timetable set by the virus. Remember the 'hammer and dance', we are now starting to see the tune played by them both.

 

[Gadget88]

Lots of negative comments here but if Czech Republic can drop face masks on transport and Isle of Man has ended social distancing surely we should be looking at a social distancing exit plan too?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Lots of negative comments here but if Czech Republic can drop face masks on transport and Isle of Man has ended social distancing surely we should be looking at a social distancing exit plan too?

We're well behind those countries in caseload terms. We are nowhere near ready to exit distancing, and it may well be that the reopening tomorrow could mean this takes much longer.

 

[Bishopstone]

I still say October-ish, with many of the distancing measures being widely ignored, well before then.

If, by then, there’s <1000 in hospital with Covid, <100 new infections per day being identified, and <10 deaths per day - all of which is plausible on the current trajectories - then the question ‘do we keep this up, at the cost of another million jobs?’ is going to be very difficult to answer in the affirmative.

The weather will be autumnal, the furlough money will have stopped, and the WFH’ers will be utterly fed up. I don’t think a vaccine will be part of this closing chapter, though if one is proven and widely deployed ahead of expectations, so much the better.

All bets off if there’s a savage second wave, but continental Europe gives us cause for hope that we’ll avoid that.

 

[Gadget88]

We're well behind those countries in caseload terms. We are nowhere near ready to exit distancing, and it may well be that the reopening tomorrow could mean this takes much longer.

I agree but they should atleast discuss what the future holds say when cases reach x number we can follow other countries or Isle of Man.

 

[Gadget88]

I still say October-ish, with many of the distancing measures being widely ignored, well before then.

If, by then, there’s <1000 in hospital with Covid, <100 new infections per day being identified, and <10 deaths per day - all of which is plausible on the current trajectories - then the question ‘do we keep this up, at the cost of another million jobs?’ is going to be very difficult to answer in the affirmative.

The weather will be autumnal, the furlough money will have stopped, and the WFH’ers will be utterly fed up. I don’t think a vaccine will be part of this closing chapter, though if one is proven and widely deployed ahead of expectations, so much the better.

All bets off if there’s a savage second wave, but continental Europe gives us cause for hope that we’ll avoid that.

Is the USA having a second wave?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Is the USA having a second wave?

It doesn't seem to be out of its first one yet.

 

[MikeWM]

Is the USA having a second wave?

Only in the states that didn't have a full 'first wave'. Those countries that did - eg. Italy, Spain, France, UK, Sweden - are continuing to move in the right direction.

 

[Bishopstone]

Is the USA having a second wave?

New York isn’t. As for Texas, Florida etc - is this a first wave or a second wave? Not sure.

The death toll in the UK is horrific and, in part, an indictment of our Government. But, if the virus regains strength it will be interesting (and awful) to see whether it bites hardest on those who cocooned themselves more thoroughly than the UK, first time around.