In my experience long distance services are still very quiet. I'm often the only person in my carriage in my morning Avanti service.
The only relatively busy long distance services are the Manchester Avanti services, and even then they are still not exactly full or anything. They are getting busier slowly which is a good sign but its slow progress. Another thing, is first class travel seems to be completely dead at the minute.
Local services and services down in GTR and in particuarl southeastern land are getting busier, though, so good signs there.
Funny you should mention first class. I walked through two in a class 450 and not a soul.
This was on the 10:34 Guildford to Waterloo service.
I was surprised at the number who boarded at Guildford.
I got in, on coach 5 if I think 12, where I counted 9 people. In the next carriage, 4, it may have been 12 or 14. My short term memory isn't great. Then another carriage of perhaps slightly less and finally carriage 2 where it was 10, including myself.
Now we are waiting at the junction with Woking and will be 2 minutes late departing Woking. I wonder with fewer trains running if we will make up that time by Clapham Junction. I guess it depends on how much allowance they make for us reaching Clapham Junction. The x49 from Guildford seems to have no problem making up lost time.
I suspected the train was indeed late 2⅓ minutes so.
The next train was the 11:12 Clapham Junction to Bognor Regis and Portsmouth & Southsea. I boarded in carriage 2 of 8 and it felt just but there was only 8 people in the standard class and 1 in the first-class area. They were a member of rail staff. It was the class of carriage where the first-class has no door to divide it from standard class. I would imagine more rail staff are using first-class off-peak on these services than paying customers. Well, the quality isn't worth the increase.
Coach 3 had 13 people in it. In coach 4 I decided to stay and go no further as a guard was talking to someone and blocking the aside. Turns out all they were doing is checking where people with luggage were going and where to change. I had a few bags with me but mustn't have looked like I have luggage. As it is, I knew where I was going
I could alight at either East Croydon, the recommended station, Gatwick Airport or Three Bridges, to reach Haywards Heath.
As it was a same platform change at both East Croydon and Gatwick Airport, I opted for East Croydon as the next train to Brighton, 11:29 would be a class 700 and I could see how busy declassified first class was. I rather enjoy sitting in this uncomfortable class, in the knowledge, it is slightly less uncomfortable than standard class on this rolling stock and I don't have to buy a first-class ticket to do so!
The section was empty, save for an empty paper take away bag. Actually, there is 1 other person. Perhaps they walked through to this section, just as I would do if I boarded further down.
I did see someone sat in standard class, probably unaware you can sit here. Not surprising when the only message to say it is standard class appears once every few minutes and 40 labels or headrests are proclaiming it to be first-class continuously!
No idea how busy the rest of the 12 car train was.
Update: Despite the train being empty and arriving at Balcombe on time, it managed to depart there a minute late and arrive into Haywards Heath 3½ minutes late. The nearest train ahead of it on Real Time Trains departed Haywards Heath at 11:50 and there was no non-stopping train in between.
Something caused the train to stop and slow down that we were not told about and it shows how even lightly loaded trains can be delayed. So 2vout if 3 trains didn't arrive on time, despite lower loadings.
I suspect punctuality dropping will be the sign people are returning to public transport in greater numbers.
