High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[RichmondCommu]

Every year we see large numbers of bright young graduates, educated at large universities in northern England (Manchester, Leeds, Sheffield etc) move down to London because "thats where the jobs are".

Build a new railway that puts central London roughly an hour away and commuting from "the north" to London becomes realistic (the savings on renting a house potentially being greater than the added travel costs).

Some 25 years a go I graduated from Manchester University after three wonderful years and having had a fantastic education left Manchester for London. However, it’s worth mentioning that even if HS2 had been around at the time an hour to London plus travel time to Piccadilly (and a Tube / Crossrail journey if work is not on the Euston Road) would have put me off staying in Manchester. And to be honest I think today’s graduates would feel the same, especially given the long hours that many people in London work. Even for those that initially decide to commute (perhaps getting on for two hours in some cases) I suspect that in the end many will decide that its not worth getting up for an early start and will instead move to London.

However, by promoting the fast links from Heathrow (and to London based clients) the North has a real chance to start offering itself as a viable alternative to London. This will go a long way to encouraging young people to stay In the North and create jobs. I'm afraid that even with HS2 commuting to London from the North will never be seen as a sensible option.

 

[HSTEd]

People commute for an hour on the train to Central London from every other direction.

Why not Manchester as well?

 

[RichmondCommu]

People commute for an hour on the train to Central London from every other direction.

Why not Manchester as well?

Ed, you also need to factor in the time taken to get to Piccadilly / Manchester Airport when calculating journey times.

 

[jon0844]

People commute for an hour on the train to Central London from every other direction.

Why not Manchester as well?

I am sure that after a while, most people commuting to London from such a distance (and paying a lot for the privilege) would seek to move to London or nearby. For one, if you worked in London but lived in Manchester, you'd probably feel rather separated from your work colleagues when they want to go out after work (and it doesn't seem HS2 will operate 24/7 as yet) and you have to leave early to get home.

I know many people who moved out much further than me, and many opted to leave and work somewhere else - or go freelance - as they already felt a bit isolated. It wasn't actually the cost of commuting that put them off.

What should happen is that people who might work as consultants, the self employed/freelance, will now be able to 'compete' with those who work in London (and vice versa) and see areas much further away as being within their range.

It could mean that I, as someone who primarily works from home but often has to go into London for events/meetings, could move along HS2 and still be able to get here very quickly. In fact, we have three members of staff who live in Manchester/Liverpool and do already come down every week or two, and would really benefit from HS2.

And we have some meetings in Manchester, so it cuts both ways.

 

[RichmondCommu]

(and it doesn't seem HS2 will operate 24/7 as yet) and you have to leave early to get home.

I think that can be completely ruled out if the LGV network in France is anything to go by.

 

[HSTEd]

Ed, you also need to factor in the time taken to get to Piccadilly / Manchester Airport when calculating journey times.

Indeed, but Manchester Airport is only 59 minutes from Euston.
A significant number of people commute from Grantham into London, which is something like 74 minutes from the station.

So people could live a significant distance away in south Manchester and still be 'closer' than the people that commute into Grantham to go to London, many of whoom come from the outlying villages which are 10 minutes or more away in a car.

 

[jon0844]

I think that can be completely ruled out if the LGV network in France is anything to go by.

I think that's a real shame given many of these cities on HS2 are now 24 hour cities.

I hoped HS2 would be built to allow single line running during engineering work, thus ensuring that (bar major work) you could run even just a few services during the night.

 

[HSTEd]

I find it hard to believe that it would be necessary to close the line for several hours every night.
The Channel tunnel doesn't need such maintenance despite the fact it sees probably more weight of traffic than HS2 will (even if it is at a lower speed).

 

[RichmondCommu]

Indeed, but Manchester Airport is only 59 minutes from Euston.
A significant number of people commute from Grantham into London, which is something like 74 minutes from the station.

So people could live a significant distance away in south Manchester and still be 'closer' than the people that commute into Grantham to go to London, many of whoom come from the outlying villages which are 10 minutes or more away in a car.

But Ed, as a young graduate (which I'm guessing you are) could you honestly see yourself commuting for up to an hour and a half into Central London as opposed to living in Greater London and being much closer to work? And on top of that having a better social life in the evenings?
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I think that's a real shame given many of these cities on HS2 are now 24 hour cities.

I hoped HS2 would be built to allow single line running during engineering work, thus ensuring that (bar major work) you could run even just a few services during the night.

Jon, I completely agree with you but I'm guessing that the infrastructure on HS2 will take so much 'hammer' that NR will have no choice but to close the route after say 00.30. The stresses on the track and points must be enormous!
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I find it hard to believe that it would be necessary to close the line for several hours every night.
The Channel tunnel doesn't need such maintenance despite the fact it sees probably more weight of traffic than HS2 will (even if it is at a lower speed).

But that doesn't explain why the LGV routes are closed every night.

 

[HSTEd]

But Ed, as a young graduate (which I'm guessing you are) could you honestly see yourself commuting for up to an hour and a half into Central London as opposed to living in Greater London and being much closer to work? And on top of that having a better social life in the evenings?

Well as a committed University of Manchester graduate (and still student! ) I would say the social life here blows the social life in Central London away, at least in the case of being actually able to afford one here.

The cost of property in Greater London is now so expensive I doubt I would ever be able to afford anything, whereas here in Manchester I can get a decent flat for not that much money.

But I must admit that the commuter belt thing is probably going to be far more important around Birmingham Airport and its environs, since that is only 38 minutes out of Euston.

But that doesn't explain why the LGV routes are closed every night.

Possibly because this is what SNCF has always done and thus what it will always do.

Remember if they close an LGV its no great hardship, they even use the same rolling stock to maintain the brand even if it ends up running the whole way on the Classic lines.

We obviously can't do this in Britain, and the amount of track to be maintained is drastically less, reducing the problem of a short section needing to be maintained which shuts the whole thing down.

 

[jon0844]

Jon, I completely agree with you but I'm guessing that the infrastructure on HS2 will take so much 'hammer' that NR will have no choice but to close the route after say 00.30. The stresses on the track and points must be enormous!

I'd hope the stresses would be quite manageable on a new line built for high-speed operation.

I think the real issue is the cost, in that timetabling services that might have to be stopped for engineering work would mean someone having to fund a replacement - either a diverted service, rail replacement buses, taxis or whatever. Network Rail might pick up the tab for unplanned work, so would likely seek to stop any trains being scheduled during the night for that very reason.

And if you took out loads of days for routine work, it would be rather awkward for anyone that might actually rely on such services (e.g. shift workers, those needing to travel for an onward connection) so it would become unreliable and, therefore, unused by many.

If people think services on a Sunday are bad in places, that would be nothing to what a night service might be like until it was treated as seriously as any other service.

FCC had looked into later services from King's Cross but I believe NR said no, as they take possession of the line at a certain time and won't budge. That's not to say this couldn't be changed, but there has to be the desire - and a lot of people would argue there's no need for such services. In fact, on this very forum, I've argued in the past and been looked upon as some weirdo for suggesting anyone actually needs trains through the night!

 

[RichmondCommu]

Well as a committed University of Manchester graduate (and still student! ) I would say the social life here blows the social life in Central London away, at least in the case of being actually able to afford one here.

The cost of property in Greater London is now so expensive I doubt I would ever be able to afford anything, whereas here in Manchester I can get a decent flat for not that much money.

But I must admit that the commuter belt thing is probably going to be far more important around Birmingham Airport and its environs, since that is only 38 minutes out of Euston.

Even as a 47 year old :roll: I understand that the night life in Manchester is pretty damn good if the experiences of my niece are anything to go by!

However, on the subject of property prices in Greater London assuming that you finish with a top rated degree (and thats a compliment!) I think you would still find affordable apartments after a few years. However, surely it would be prefferable if you could forge a succesful career in the North West with HS2 connecting London to the NW rather than the other way round?

Possibly because this is what SNCF has always done and thus what it will always do.

Remember if they close an LGV its no great hardship, they even use the same rolling stock to maintain the brand even if it ends up running the whole way on the Classic lines.

We obviously can't do this in Britain, and the amount of track to be maintained is drastically less, reducing the problem of a short section needing to be maintained which shuts the whole thing down.

I concur but surely we could operate Classic Compatibles on the WCML or indeed the ECML? I appreciate that this would not be the case with Captive stock but I think we will end up building a lot more Classic Compatible stock to run on purely classic lines.
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FCC had looked into later services from King's Cross but I believe NR said no, as they take possession of the line at a certain time and won't budge. That's not to say this couldn't be changed, but there has to be the desire - and a lot of people would argue there's no need for such services. In fact, on this very forum, I've argued in the past and been looked upon as some weirdo for suggesting anyone actually needs trains through the night!

In all honesty Jon I suspect that many of those posters have never lived anywhere near London and so don't appreciate the issues, especially if you are outside the scope of night buses. And given that you live in Herts I'm guessing that night buses are not an option! I happen to think that things would improve if Boris got his hands on FCC inner suburban routes but hey what do I know :roll:

 

[Wavertreelad]

What i meant was that traffic from Felixstowe that we are going to move to the cross country route once more and more routes are cleared will be replaced on the WCML south by rail traffic from London Gateway.

All i was pointing out is any reduction in Felixstowe freight will quickly be replaced.

Was not referring to shipping traffic.

Understood, and largely agree, the only point I would make is that freight trains in and out of both Felixstowe and London Gateway are for only for intermodal traffic so the volumes are solely dependent on the mix of shipping companies calling at each port.

I am not suggesting that the development in Liverpool will replace all the volume on the WCML north of Birmingham, as other factors come into the movements, it certainly could have an effect. Having said that volumes to and from all three southern ports are still likely to rise and I would certainly support an electrified direct route east west to Felixstowe.

 

[HSTEd]

And platforms are to be at least 415m long, which means that in theory you could just squeeze another TGV Duplex trailer into the formation if you really wanted to, for a total number of 19.

But that could cause operational issues with getting a 413m train into a 415m long platform reliably and with spare vehicles thanks to the set having an odd number of vehicles (although not that major since the simplest option would be just to have a whole set spare rather than attempting anything clever with half sets).

But if we are really serious about maximising capacity.....

 

[tbtc]

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/nov/04/hs2-david-cameron-wants-costs-cut

David Cameron is to order the new head of the HS2 high-speed train line to cut the cost of the £42bn project, just weeks after Labour said it would not give the project a "blank cheque".

The prime minister will ask Sir David Higgins, the man in charge of overseeing the Olympics, to bring in the north-south train line under budget after the opposition raised concerns about its soaring cost and an official analysis showed its value for money is falling

Depending on how you want to look at it, this could be:

• A good way of neutralising one of the main criticisms of HS2 (the cost)
• Further evidence that Cameron is being forced into positions by Milliband (like over Syria and energy prices)
• More evidence that HS2 is the root of all evil (the "route" of all evil), and going to cost everyone huge sums of money

(no point in preaching to the converted)

People commute for an hour on the train to Central London from every other direction.

Why not Manchester as well?

Ed, you also need to factor in the time taken to get to Piccadilly / Manchester Airport when calculating journey times.

There's a thread on the forum about the large number of people who commute from Oxford (and Cambridge) to central London each day - roughly an hour away.

Presumably most of those have to travel for some time to get from their house to the station in Oxford (or Cambridge), but still commute in decent numbers.

Why is it so hard to believe that in twenty years time it may be normal for some people to live in somewhere like Manchester (with large numbers of city centre appartments, not too far from Piccadilly) and commute to London?

 

[The Ham]

Telegraph reporting that alternatives to HS2 offer better value for money than HS2

High Speed 2 represents far worse value for taxpayers' money than plans to upgrade existing rail routes, the government’s own analysis has found.
The economic benefits of HS2 will be significantly lower than rival schemes to improve conventional lines between London and the north, it said. Abandoning HS2 in favour of a programme of upgrade work to tracks and stations along existing mainline routes would deliver an extra £1 in economic benefits for every £1 spent, the figures showed.

The findings could critically undermine David Cameron's attempt to re-launch HS2 in the face of growing political opposition. Ministers published their latest economic “business case” for the controversial £50 billion high speed project last week, as the Prime Minister sought to deflect pressure onto Ed Miliband over Labour’s wavering support for the plan.

Key to the government’s argument for proceeding with the scheme is the benefit to the wider economy which will result from a new, high-speed rail link between London, Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds. Ministers paraded the latest official estimate of the economic value of the plan, which claimed that HS2 would deliver £2.30 in benefits for every £1 spent on the scheme. The figure was based on an assessment of the impact of quicker travel times, more trains running between London and the north, and extra investment in jobs and businesses along the new route, among other factors. However, detailed analysis buried within a separate 150-page study into the alternatives to HS2, also published by the Department for Transport last week, showed that upgrading services on existing rail routes would provide far better value for money.

According to this study, one package of improvement works to existing lines between London, Birmingham and northern cities would deliver economic benefits equal to £3.30 for every £1 invested, 43 per cent more than HS2. A second package of possible upgrade works offered potential benefits of £3.10 for every £1 spent, said the study, which was conducted by Atkins Ltd, the engineering consultancy, with the Department for Transport and Network Rail. These “strategic alternatives” to HS2 would deliver improvements to the East Coast Main Line, the Midland Mainline and the West Coast Main Line.The plans include the laying of extra track, closures of level crossings, the electrification of existing routes, new platforms, and more trains per hour across large sections of the network between London, the Midlands and the North.Parts of the East Coast Main Line would operate at higher speeds of up to 140mph under the alternative proposals.

Department for Transport officials confirmed that the findings represented a fair comparison of the value for money offered by HS2 and the alternatives. However, they insisted that upgrading conventional rail lines would not deliver the same capacity improvements as the entirely new route proposed under HS2. The conclusions prompted fresh demands from opponents of HS2 for ministers to halt the project. Cheryl Gillan, the former Cabinet minister, who is a fierce opponent of HS2, said the figures showed “a phenomenal difference” in value for money between the high speed plan and the alternatives. She said the government had failed properly to consider the alternatives before committing billions of pounds to HS2. “This is another example of where the taxpayers’ money could well be better spent,” she said. “People who are against HS2 are not suggesting that nothing else needs to be done. We know there are alternatives but the Department for Transport does not want to face the fact that there are alternatives.
“I am sure the taxpaying and railway travelling British public would prefer to have taxpayers’ money on something that yields a better result for that money.”
Andrew Bridgen, the Conservative MP for North West Leicestershire, demanded that the Prime Minister scrap HS2 immediately in favour of an alternative package of upgrade work.
“I call on the government to adopt those plans, pull HS2 immediately, give the hard-pressed taxpayer far better value for money and relieve the blight that HS2 is causing across our beautiful country. There never was a business case for HS2 and the alternatives offer far better value.”
The government insisted that the benefits to costs ratio could not show “the full story” of why HS2 was necessary.

HS2 will provide 13,000 seats during peak times, compared to just 3,000 for the alternative schemes, a spokesman for the Department for Transport said.
“The alternatives to HS2 would result in up to 14 years of weekend closures across the network on multiple routes resulting in significant disruption to the travelling public.
“This is not acceptable. They also do not provide anywhere near the increase in capacity or journey time savings of HS2.”

A succession of high-level inquiries has questioned the economic case for the scheme and even Labour party figures who previously favoured HS2 are now saying that it should be abandoned.
Last month, the Commons treasury select committee said the project must be halted until ministers can offer a better economic case for the new line.
Even Lord Adonis, the Labour politician who launched HS2 as Transport Secretary, said that the project was running into trouble.

The peer is one of the strongest supporters of HS2 but he warned that it required "much better project management, in particular to get the costs under control".
Labour MPs were now "rightly asking questions" about the rising bill for the project, he told the Week in Westminster on BBC Radio 4 on Saturday.

What happens to the value of the rail package works if they have to have a similar level of contingency funds as HS2 has had to have in place?

Also although 3,000 extra seats sounds a lot in the peak hours this is in comparison to the 536,000 passenger who arrive into Central London during the morning peak. Even if all those extra seats were for use for passengers into Euston that would be in comparison to the about 24,000 passengers arriving in the morning peak (12.5% increase). However spread over the WCML, ECML & MML the increase in seats will be a much lower percentage.

Yes it could be better value to undertake the alternative works, however there is the risk that passenger growth could swamp them in a matter of a few years. Depending on what passenger growth does in the next 12 months we could well see the passenger growth rate hit the HS2 growth rate forecast for about 2019 (so about 10 years worth of growth in just 5 years). Meaning that there is a risk that we may need HS2 and some of the alternative works to keep up with passenger demand until HS2 is open.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/nov/04/hs2-david-cameron-wants-costs-cut



Depending on how you want to look at it, this could be:

• A good way of neutralising one of the main criticisms of HS2 (the cost)
• Further evidence that Cameron is being forced into positions by Milliband (like over Syria and energy prices)
• More evidence that HS2 is the root of all evil (the "route" of all evil), and going to cost everyone huge sums of money

(no point in preaching to the converted)

Depending on what Sir David Higgins reports in March (just before the Hybrid Bill enters Parliament) Labour will claim credit for, i.e. putting pressure on the Government to bring down the costs. I suspect that a large chunk of the 14 Billion pound contingency will disappear or be reallocated to other transport projects and perhaps a few years shaved off the construction (Sir David has previously said he wants to bring the construction of phase 2 forward).

 

[Gareth Marston]

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2013/nov/04/hs2-david-cameron-wants-costs-cut



Depending on how you want to look at it, this could be:

• A good way of neutralising one of the main criticisms of HS2 (the cost)
• Further evidence that Cameron is being forced into positions by Milliband (like over Syria and energy prices)
• More evidence that HS2 is the root of all evil (the "route" of all evil), and going to cost everyone huge sums of money

(no point in preaching to the converted)





There's a thread on the forum about the large number of people who commute from Oxford (and Cambridge) to central London each day - roughly an hour away.

Presumably most of those have to travel for some time to get from their house to the station in Oxford (or Cambridge), but still commute in decent numbers.

Why is it so hard to believe that in twenty years time it may be normal for some people to live in somewhere like Manchester (with large numbers of city centre appartments, not too far from Piccadilly) and commute to London?

I have a friend who cycles from Montgomery to Newtown station (about 10 miles) and then gets the train to Aberystwyth for work (78 minutes), admittedly he doesn't do it every day but people do travel for quite some time.
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Depending on what Sir David Higgins reports in March (just before the Hybrid Bill enters Parliament) Labour will claim credit for, i.e. putting pressure on the Government to bring down the costs. I suspect that a large chunk of the 14 Billion pound contingency will disappear or be reallocated to other transport projects and perhaps a few years shaved off the construction (Sir David has previously said he wants to bring the construction of phase 2 forward).

The antis seem flummoxed that more MP's did not vote against it despite the summer of scare story's, the truth is unless your en route as an MP your constituency post bag is not filled with HS2 correspondence. Appearing to address the rising costs which in reality are just Treasury contingency margins should keep the bulk of any waverers quite. I suspect Labour in the North will have reigned Balls in as well especially if work starts up North early.

 

[WatcherZero]

Only had a cursory glance at these alternatives last week but the thing I noticed was they were independent cost estimates based on NR's estimation of the infrastructure that would be required to provide similar capacity, however if you compare the packages in NR report and the independent packages costed, they miss out a lot of the work NR said was neccesary, particularly in the North West mainly focusing on a few big interventions and ignoring all the minor interventions that would also be required.

 

[Chris125]

The latest blog from the BBC's James Landale:

Change of tone for Labour on HS2?

"Do I detect a small change in tone from Ed Balls on high speed rail, a little softening of the usual critique?"

 

[HowardGWR]

The latest blog from the BBC's James Landale:

Change of tone for Labour on HS2?

"Do I detect a small change in tone from Ed Balls on high speed rail, a little softening of the usual critique?"

No. I see no change in tone whatsoever and more importantly no change in substance. He doesn't want it and all this value for money stuff is just a smokescreen for his true view.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

No. I see no change in tone whatsoever and more importantly no change in substance. He doesn't want it and all this value for money stuff is just a smokescreen for his true view.

Maybe but at the end of the day Ed Balls is not in charge of the Labour Party and given how Ed Milliband has handled the Falkirk row he wont want to split the party by abandoning support for HS2 a year before an election. To do so and will put the Labour leadership in conflict with all the Labour lead councils of the cities that stand to benefit from HS2 plus Labour are not going to gain any votes in the Tory shires the phase 1 route passes through. If anything the party that has the most to gain from abandoning support for HS2 is the Tories as the phase 1 route is causing them to lose votes to UKIP in their heartlands.

As I said previously when Sir David Higgins reports next year Balls will claim credit for forcing down the costs :roll:

 

[Grumpy]

People commute for an hour on the train to Central London from every other direction.

Why not Manchester as well?

Some probably do so already.

Including a Travelcard you will have to find nearly £14K pa to pay for your season ticket. If you're paying tax at 40% then you have to earn nearly £23k just to pay for the ticket.

That's at today's prices. Anybody's guess what premium will be charged on top for using HS2.

No doubt some may find it worthwhile but it is difficult to see this being significant.

 

[Metrailway]

Possibly because this is what SNCF has always done and thus what it will always do.

Remember if they close an LGV its no great hardship, they even use the same rolling stock to maintain the brand even if it ends up running the whole way on the Classic lines.

We obviously can't do this in Britain, and the amount of track to be maintained is drastically less, reducing the problem of a short section needing to be maintained which shuts the whole thing down.

I don't think it is just SNCF. AVE closes early, IIRC the last train from Madrid to Seville departs at around 21:00. IIRC the Shinkansen network also closes really early. Not sure about ICE though...

For all those saying that long distance commuting would be easy post HS2, well I wouldn't be too sure. I've done long distance commuting before (Bristol - London) and trust me it is certainly not easy, you have no social life, can't spend time with your family as you have to hit the sack soon after arriving home, and with the expense, it really is only worth it if you are very well paid.

Many people do not realise the amount of hours worked by many employees in the City of London. It is common for many to arrive into work at around 6am and leave at 7 or 8pm. I seriously doubt you'll see many workers commuting from Manchester with these working hours!

 

[RichmondCommu]

There's a thread on the forum about the large number of people who commute from Oxford (and Cambridge) to central London each day - roughly an hour away.

Presumably most of those have to travel for some time to get from their house to the station in Oxford (or Cambridge), but still commute in decent numbers.?

I would be interested to know how many of those commuters are in their 20's / early 30's and lead active social lives during the week.

Why is it so hard to believe that in twenty years time it may be normal for some people to live in somewhere like Manchester (with large numbers of city centre appartments, not too far from Piccadilly) and commute to London?

One could argue that living in an apartment is fine for single people / young couples but is far from ideal when young children are involved. So as those individuals grow older what happens as they move further away from Manchester city centre? Essentially their commute becomes untenable and they look for jobs closer to the North West. But as we have put all eggs in one basket (i.e. London) there is nothing in Manchester!

 

[HSTEd]

Some probably do so already.

Including a Travelcard you will have to find nearly £14K pa to pay for your season ticket. If you're paying tax at 40% then you have to earn nearly £23k just to pay for the ticket.

That's at today's prices. Anybody's guess what premium will be charged on top for using HS2.

No doubt some may find it worthwhile but it is difficult to see this being significant.

But there is not likely to be a premium for using HS2, since if there was that would discourage people from travelling since the classic lines would be rapidly swamped.

Critics see that it is faster and magically assumes that it will be more expensive, while at the same time claiming that going faster is not worth anything.
People won't pay the premium if the time saving isn't worth anything to them.
Not to mention the Government has massive political capital invested in insuring there is no premium now that £40bn of public money is being put on the line for the project.

They will likely force the lowest possible fares to pump up ridership to avoid accusations of a white elephant.

Virgin peak time fares are so inflated as a result of massive overcrowding, like on most commuter railways.
There will be little or no reason to inflate the fares on HS2 thanks to the overcrowding issue being effectively nonexistant for the first decade or so thanks to the massive capacity on offer.

One could argue that living in an apartment is fine for single people / young couples but is far from ideal when young children are involved. So as those individuals grow older what happens as they move further away from Manchester city centre? Essentially their commute becomes untenable and they look for jobs closer to the North West. But as we have put all eggs in one basket (i.e. London) there is nothing in Manchester!

They then move to Cheshire and the more suburban parts of south Manchester and drive to Manchester Airport to pick up the train there.
Or they drive to Crewe if they don't want to double back even though that probably saves almost no time.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Many people do not realise the amount of hours worked by many employees in the City of London. It is common for many to arrive into work at around 6am and leave at 7 or 8pm. I seriously doubt you'll see many workers commuting from Manchester with these working hours!

Thank you for dispelling the myth that people who work in the City (and Canary Wharf) lead a glamorous life with alcohol fueled long lunches! If only!
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They then move to Cheshire and the more suburban parts of south Manchester and drive to Manchester Airport to pick up the train there.
Or they drive to Crewe if they don't want to double back even though that probably saves almost no time.

But you are forgetting to factor in the time taken to drive / take a suburban train to the station and the fact that the journey will only be ten minutes quicker! So in effect the journey door to door will in fact be longer.

With reference to Crewe, are they planning to build a HS2 station there?

 

[HSTEd]

But you are forgetting to factor in the time taken to drive / take a suburban train to the station and the fact that the journey will only be ten minutes quicker! So in effect the journey door to door will in fact be longer.

I put Knutsford to Manchester Airport at 19 minutes according to google maps, mostly on motorway and low-numbered A-roads.
Add another 15 minutes as contingency and you end up with a journey time of 93 minutes, which is a little on the long side but there are large numbers of people who do that sort of journey every day.

Knutsford to Crewe comes out at 32 minutes, so I suppose that would only be used by people in Cheshire and Further south but its still not dreadful.
People do that sort of journey length regularly from stations like Grantham and Newark.

With reference to Crewe, are they planning to build a HS2 station there?

There will be HS2 trains to the regular station, as that is where the Liverpool trains, and potentially some other services, will come off the high speed line.
HS2 Ltd claims a journey time of 58 minutes however, so only comparable with the journey time to Manchester Airport. (Considering they claim the same stopping pattern - OOC only, this seems odd).

It is highly likely that the core of the commuter market will be areas surrounding Birmingham International however, since it is closer to London and has optimal ground for development especially with its incredibly developed motorway system.

 

[Grumpy]

But there is not likely to be a premium for using HS2, since if there was that would discourage people from travelling since the classic lines would be rapidly swamped.

Critics see that it is faster and magically assumes that it will be more expensive, while at the same time claiming that going faster is not worth anything.
People won't pay the premium if the time saving isn't worth anything to them.

Is it officially stated there wont be a premium, or is this more pro-HS2 wishful thinking?

If you book a return from Ashford to London, it's 20% more to use the HS1 service. Why should HS2 be any different?

And why shouldn't the users pay a premium, when the advocates claim they get benefits from time saved? Less burden for the poor suffering taxpayer (the vast majority of whom will never use it) who will be lumbered with billions of taxes so that the relatively few can whizz along
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I concur but surely we could operate Classic Compatibles on the WCML or indeed the ECML? I appreciate that this would not be the case with Captive stock but I think we will end up building a lot more Classic Compatible stock to run on purely classic lines.:

Absolutely spot on. Buying captive stock has no advantages.

 

[Deerfold]

Is it officially stated there wont be a premium, or is this more pro-HS2 wishful thinking?

If you book a return from Ashford to London, it's 20% more to use the HS1 service. Why should HS2 be any different?

Both these routes are operated by the same company so they don't really care which route you take, they'll get your money anyway. For longer distance tickets not priced by Southeastern there is no premium.

Assuming HS2 is run by a different company than WCML HS2 will want to encourage people to transfer.

Absolutely spot on. Buying captive stock has no advantages.

Apart from fitting more people in as they can be twice as long as clasic compatibles without having to join and split services, potentially double decker and are wider (so they either get more people in or are more comfortable).