High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[tbtc]

They've got a great point about developing broadband and infrastructure. Remember that in 20 or 30 years time, working practices and technology would have changed far more than the size/length/comfort of trains, and the average worker who is being targeted by HS2 as the ideal customer will almost certainly want faster Internet rather than faster trains. The 9-5 model on which HS2 is based won't exist when HS2 is built.

I reckon most white collar jobs have had around fifteen years of internet access - we've seen dial up move to broadband (to faster broadband), we've seen things like Skype on phones (and other "pocket" devices), we've seen technology that would allow millions of people to work from home...

Have passenger numbers gone down in those fifteen years? Has the number of commuters gone down, now that we can all work from home via broadband?

Ach well, lets not bother trying to increase capacity whilst the population goes up by another ten million, lets just hope that broadband will be fast enough so we can all work from home and not need railways.

 

[AndyLandy]

They've got a great point about developing broadband and infrastructure. Remember that in 20 or 30 years time, working practices and technology would have changed far more than the size/length/comfort of trains, and the average worker who is being targeted by HS2 as the ideal customer will almost certainly want faster Internet rather than faster trains. The 9-5 model on which HS2 is based won't exist when HS2 is built.

That's quite a bold claim to make. I completely agree that we should be investing in Internet connectivity, but not at the expense of our railways.

As for the future, I see the demand for travel increasing, not decreasing. Even if more and more people are no longer tied to 9-to-5s or physically being in offices in big cities, there'll still be a demand for travel. I was on a packed Crewe-Euston train earlier today. There's no way you can label the folks on a Saturday 2pm train as commuters. Yet there they were, travelling from the North West into London.

The ability to travel is a quality of life issue for me. I want to be able to live in Southampton, but visit friends and family in the North; just as I want faster broadband, better healthcare and less crime.

 

[jones_bangor]

I reckon most white collar jobs have had around fifteen years of internet access - we've seen dial up move to broadband (to faster broadband), we've seen things like Skype on phones (and other "pocket" devices), we've seen technology that would allow millions of people to work from home...

Have passenger numbers gone down in those fifteen years? Has the number of commuters gone down, now that we can all work from home via broadband?

Ach well, lets not bother trying to increase capacity whilst the population goes up by another ten million, lets just hope that broadband will be fast enough so we can all work from home and not need railways.

I think you're missing the point....

Spending vast amount of cash on HS2 is based on the assumption that London remains the "center" and that somehow London can continue to grow exponentially....

Plan B (non HS2) would involve spending money on currently appalling commuter services into Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester etc....sustainable growth in the regions vs brain drain to London. It's time for the English regions to wake up and smell the coffee....look at what the South Wales Valleys are getting (a electrified Metro service into Cardiff)....
N.B. I was under the impression that the FoI request had shown NO capacity constraints out of London at "peak times".....

 

[HSTEd]

The regions will never be able to compete with London.
Cities have a "critical mass" effect that becomes noticeable as the size increases.

Economic activity tends to concentrate where the people are, drawing more people in and thus further concentrating the economic activity.

Short of simply forbidding anyone new to move to London the brain drain will continue whatever is done, HS2 permits the benefits to be spread around rather than just continually concentrated into a small area around London.

 

[tbtc]

I think you're missing the point....

Spending vast amount of cash on HS2 is based on the assumption that London remains the "center" and that somehow London can continue to grow exponentially....

Plan B (non HS2) would involve spending money on currently appalling commuter services into Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester etc....sustainable growth in the regions vs brain drain to London. It's time for the English regions to wake up and smell the coffee....

N.B. I was under the impression that the FoI request had shown NO capacity constraints out of London at "peak times".....

We are spending huge sums of money upgrading infrastructure/ services to other cities (Northern Hub? CP5 electrification?) - I'm not sure why you think otherwise?

And HS2 is intended to solve capacity issues in twenty/ fifty years time - its not all about 2013.

 

[AndyLandy]

Plan B (non HS2) would involve spending money on currently appalling commuter services into Birmingham, Leeds, Manchester etc....sustainable growth in the regions vs brain drain to London.

That's a great idea! We could spend, say £37 billion over the next seven years or so, electrifying some 900 miles of railway, procuring a fleet of Intercity Express trains to replace the aging HST and IC225 trains, electrifying a Northern Hub and the TransPennine routes and vastly improve our railways, all across the country.

...and we could maybe build HS2 as well?

 

[jones_bangor]

We are spending huge sums of money upgrading infrastructure/ services to other cities (Northern Hub? CP5 electrification?) - I'm not sure why you think otherwise?

And HS2 is intended to solve capacity issues in twenty/ fifty years time - its not all about 2013.

HS2 is a dead-duck, it's just a question of time before the plug is pulled. I'd say in about 12 months when the Tories will want to shore up their vote along the "proposed" route.....

 

[AndyLandy]

HS2 is a dead-duck, it's just a question of time before the plug is pulled. I'd say in about 12 months when the Tories will want to shore up their vote along the "proposed" route.....

Have you been using PR1Berske's time machine? I hope you had his permission!

 

[PR1Berske]

We are spending huge sums of money upgrading infrastructure/ services to other cities (Northern Hub? CP5 electrification?) - I'm not sure why you think otherwise?

And HS2 is intended to solve capacity issues in twenty/ fifty years time - its not all about 2013.

No, it's all about 2033+, when the assumptions on population shifts, working practices and technology may all be wildly inaccurate. HS2 is a hell of risk to take for a "Tomorrow's World" style prediction of the future.

 

[Chris125]

The £2bn they would spend on the existing rail network could - COULD, I don't know the full amount - be focused on those parts of the WCML which are at the most critical. After all, HS2 won't resolve bottle necks around Coventry, it just builds around them.

Why risk so much money on a new network? Use less money more wisely.

This isn't a lump sum being talked about, that '£50bn' is 15+ years of investment - how far do you think £2bn between 2017 and 2032 will go?

However if you believe (as many opponents do) that spending on the conventional network will have to be reduced to compensate for this '£50bn' then the 51M plan actually represents a significant cut in rail investment.

N.B. I was under the impression that the FoI request had shown NO capacity constraints out of London at "peak times".....

As train lengths and frequencies have only recently been increased why should that be a surprise? However with passenger numbers doubling since privatisation, and the WCML seeing huge growth in particular due to the upgrade, there's every reason to think that spare capacity won't last long.

Even today it is hard to fit in any extra services, as Blackpool and Shrewsbury have found out, so with Network Rail predicting the southern WCML to be 'effectively full' by the mid 2020's it makes complete sense to look for a longer term solution.

Chris

 

[RichmondCommu]

And why throw resources at a Victorian money pit?
A new line offers lower risk and better value for money.

The problem is we are currently struggling to link HS2 to the Victorian network. You could argue that Birmingham New Street is a Victorian money pit but I wish we could bite the bullet and build low level platforms at New Street including HS2. Everything running through New Street would be a real boost not just for HS2 but the West Midlands as a whole. In affect a Brummie Cross Rail!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I do worry about what interchange is going to be like regarding HS2. I can well imagine lots of users will want to connect into HS2 from a local rail service. I know it would apply to me (I currently have to travel from Hartford to Crewe to pick up the WCML expresses)

People movers and travelators are all well and good, but what about people with lots of luggage. If you make interchange times too long, you wipe out the speed benefits of HS2. I'd far rather spend an extra 30 minutes on a train than 30 minutes carting my bags across a station.

I do wonder whether we're shooting ourselves in the foot if we don't make interchanges quick and convenient.

Well yes of course we are but sadly the DfT doesn't seem to recognise this. If people complain about connections at St Pancras (which I personally think are baseless) what are they going to make of dragging suitcases through driving rain? Not only that but how well do travelators work on inclines? You don't tend to get inclines in Airport terminals!

 

[Chris125]

No, it's all about 2033+, when the assumptions on population shifts, working practices and technology may all be wildly inaccurate. HS2 is a hell of risk to take for a "Tomorrow's World" style prediction of the future.

...and I'd argue that not building HS2 is a hell of a risk to take based on wild 'Tomorrow's World' style predictions of the impact of faster broadband which are not backed up by past trends.

Well yes of course we are but sadly the DfT doesn't seem to recognise this. If people complain about connections at St Pancras (which I personally think are baseless) what are they going to make of dragging suitcases through driving rain? Not only that but how well do travelators work on inclines? You don't tend to get inclines in Airport terminals!

It's not rocket science to provide covered connections, as for inclined travelators they are often found in supermarkets while the Waterloo & City has one at Bank I believe?

Chris

 

[RichmondCommu]

It's not rocket science to provide covered connections, as for inclined travelators they are often found in supermarkets while the Waterloo & City has one at Bank I believe?

In all honesty I'd forgotten about the one at Bank! However, Curzon Street to New Street is still a substantial distance for a covered connection with a travelator!

 

[HSTEd]

Its only a few hundred metres.

Walking on a travelator would make the journey doable in about ten minutes probably, if not less, even with bags (which normally have wheels if they are heavy now).

 

[NSEFAN]

Its only a few hundred metres.

Walking on a travelator would make the journey doable in about ten minutes probably, if not less, even with bags (which normally have wheels if they are heavy now).

I've recently walked between Curzon Street and New Street. It takes about 10 minutes as it is now. It's not a problem on a nice day but I agree with RichmondCommu that it wouldn't be pleasant in the rain!

 

[Trog]

Probably best if it was tunnelled connecting New St, Moor St and Curzon St via nice warm brightly lit underground tunnels.

 

[tbtc]

No, it's all about 2033+, when the assumptions on population shifts, working practices and technology may all be wildly inaccurate. HS2 is a hell of risk to take for a "Tomorrow's World" style prediction of the future.

Funny, but you keep ignoring the fact that passenger demand (and commuter demand in particular) has gone UP over the last fifteen years when we've had huge advances in technology, internet access, broadband, video messaging...

...yet trains are busier than ever. Odd.

the 51M plan actually represents a significant cut in rail investment

Good point

 

[pablo]

Heard on the box last night, the National Lottery has given away £30 billion since inception. It could have paid for all of HS2 and we'd have it by now. And we'd know the answers, or, at least, some of them. )

PS: I walk between Euston & St. Pancras twice a week and it's a real fag. It takes me over 15 minutes, platform to platform, which is what counts. The tube is no better. Lots of walking there too. And when it rains...... Not a sensible adjunct to a HS network.

 

[HSTEd]

I've done it in a couple of times in about eight minutes carriage to carriage but it nearly kills me.
Luckily I am also travelling in first so I can go from front door to first door.

 

[HowardGWR]

...and I'd argue that not building HS2 is a hell of a risk to take based on wild 'Tomorrow's World' style predictions of the impact of faster broadband which are not backed up by past trends.



It's not rocket science to provide covered connections, as for inclined travelators they are often found in supermarkets while the Waterloo & City has one at Bank I believe?

Chris

There's one at Schiphol too.

You just break up the sections, again as they do at Schiphol, (and they play soothing birdsong there too!).

 

[asylumxl]

Meanwhile, in Japan...

 

[edwin_m]

It's not rocket science to provide covered connections, as for inclined travelators they are often found in supermarkets while the Waterloo & City has one at Bank I believe?

And there is one at Manchester Piccadilly. For slightly longer distances or lower passenger flows there are various "horizontal lift" people movers as often seen at airports.

I do agree that good interchange is fundamental to the success of HS2 but locating the HS2 stations any closer to existing stations would make the property impacts a lot worse, and extending the existing stations to provide equivalent platform capacity would be worse still.

 

[TSR :D]

HS2 terminating at Curzon Street is probably good idea as it will help with the efforts to regenerate area to south of that street.

Although, I realise having 4 different stations in city centre isn't good, so merging HS2 station with Moor Street could work.

There'll be always hassle of interchanging between the 3 stations unless government decides to merge New Street, Moor Street and HS2 station together which will never happen anyway.

 

[LateThanNever]

Meanwhile, in Japan...

Brother, that is amazing. Maglev was, if I'm not mistaken, a British invention. And the construction is, I think, in a country almost as crowded as the UK - but with earthquakes to make it more interesting...

Makes HS2 seem like a model railway.

 

[asylumxl]

Brother, that is amazing. Maglev was, if I'm not mistaken, a British invention. And the construction is, I think, in a country almost as crowded as the UK - but with earthquakes to make it more interesting...

Makes HS2 seem like a model railway.

Various people claim they invented it first, but the development and first full size linear induction systems were made by a chap from Imperial College. Ironic really, but typical of Britain.

A model railway indeed. Should hopefully give some ood for thought for those who are under the impression maglev isn't workable for real world routes.

 

[eps200]

HS2 terminating at Curzon Street is probably good idea as it will help with the efforts to regenerate area to south of that street.

Although, I realise having 4 different stations in city centre isn't good, so merging HS2 station with Moor Street could work.

There'll be always hassle of interchanging between the 3 stations unless government decides to merge New Street, Moor Street and HS2 station together which will never happen anyway.

having curzon/ moor street as a single station seems possible at the very least, some sort of subway with travelators would be handy too.

 

[HSTEd]

Various people claim they invented it first, but the development and first full size linear induction systems were made by a chap from Imperial College. Ironic really, but typical of Britain.

A model railway indeed. Should hopefully give some ood for thought for those who are under the impression maglev isn't workable for real world routes.

Unfortunately it appears people with pacemakers will be barred from the Chuo Shinkansen.

 

[brianthegiant]

having curzon/ moor street as a single station seems possible at the very least, some sort of subway with travelators would be handy too.

I read an interview with someone from Birmingham recently (can't remember if it was head of Centro or Chamber of Commerce). They seemed to be saying that because people like stations with good retail facilities, the New St - Curzon St link should go via the bullring. I can't think of anything worse than battling through thousands of saturday shoppers with my baggage when changing trains... But in the same interview they also thought making New St & Curzon St 2 wings of the same station would be a good idea, so bit of a confusing message.

I think well lit tunnels & travelators are the way forwards. I also think there might also be a case for such tunnels to be accessible only from the station at each end and put under Network Rail/BTP control, though not inside the gateline. This way anyone attempting to engage in criminal/antisocial behavious would have to access/egress via the main station entrance and BTP would have a clear remit.

 

[HSTEd]

Ideally Euston/St Pancras/KGX would have all the platforms renumbered into a single series.

Its rather a pity that pedestrian subway provision between the stations wasn't built into the British Library when the new building was built.

 

[jon0844]

Would be amusing telling someone that their train arrives at platform 1 and the next one goes from platform 25...