High Speed Two (HS2) discussion

[RichW1]

In the end YorkshireBear put it perfectly. It is about capacity, it is about the need to move more freight, it is also about increasing length and frequency of Intercity's so we no longer have insane overcrowding on Intercity services.

A country must be able to move goods and people so it's a factor of production and when you are talking about preparing for the 21st century...can you put a price on that?

Also, so glad someone brought up the cost issue - that the money wouldn't be there but for HS2. For anyone anti-hs2 on cost grounds, we should point out we are spending the same amount now per annum on Crossrail and Thameslink - the funding will merely be transferred to the new project.

Finally if I hear or read any more anti's talking about the journey time to Birmingham I am going to scream!

 

[Ironside]

Finally if I hear or read any more anti's talking about the journey time to Birmingham I am going to scream!

There are some anti's who understand the project but dont want it and will just say anything repeatedly in the hope that other people will believe them, and the project will somehow be undermined.

 

[6Gman]

In the end YorkshireBear put it perfectly. It is about capacity, it is about the need to move more freight, it is also about increasing length and frequency of Intercity's so we no longer have insane overcrowding on Intercity services.

But weren't we told on Wednesday night's tv programme that IC services out of Paddington were the most overloaded in the UK?

Certainly the crush loading filmed out of Paddington (and a fortnight earlier out of Kings Cross) was far worse than anything I've seen out of Euston!

So how does HS2 benefit trains to Plymouth, Bristol or South Wales? And any benefit out of Kings Cross will be marginal - and very long-term.

£2bn per annum over the next 16 years or so could make a significant difference to a lot of routes.

 

[Ironside]

But weren't we told on Wednesday night's tv programme that IC services out of Paddington were the most overloaded in the UK?

Certainly the crush loading filmed out of Paddington (and a fortnight earlier out of Kings Cross) was far worse than anything I've seen out of Euston!

So how does HS2 benefit trains to Plymouth, Bristol or South Wales? And any benefit out of Kings Cross will be marginal - and very long-term.

£2bn per annum over the next 16 years or so could make a significant difference to a lot of routes.

Over £5 billion is being spent on upgrading the GWML, including upgrading Reading station, electrification to Swansea and new trains. This money will along way to making the necessary improvements required on the line. This upgrade is happening now so investment in HS2 won't be better spent on GWML.

 

[RichW1]

To be fair, I meant in general as I think new high speed lines should be (but won't be) laid to South Wales too for the same reasons.

I think it's important to remember the capital costs for HS2 are not being diverted from conventional rail budgets. Crossrail has a non-standard (when looking at rail infrastructure spending generally) funding stream. The same too will be the case High Speed 2 and HS2 is a separate budget and project and will not be taken away from Network Rails' Control Period budget. It is the same type of project as building an airport - the money for that would not be taken from Network Rails' budget - forget it is a railway and think of it more as piece of infrastructure separate to annual budgets already set for conventional rail.

For the same investment, no benefits come close to what a new railway can achieve. Look at the West Coast debacle! Awfully poor result for the money spent which in the end only amounted to what was intended in 1984 with speed no faster than 1976 and capacity problems still there, albeit eased considerably. Growth is outstripping the conventional railways ability to deal with the demand. High Speed solves this problem for decades to come.

 

[corfield]

But weren't we told on Wednesday night's tv programme that IC services out of Paddington were the most overloaded in the UK?

Certainly the crush loading filmed out of Paddington (and a fortnight earlier out of Kings Cross) was far worse than anything I've seen out of Euston!

So how does HS2 benefit trains to Plymouth, Bristol or South Wales? And any benefit out of Kings Cross will be marginal - and very long-term.

Isn't Paddington being dealt with by the multi-billion pound investment in upgrading the GWML right now, and the multi-multi-billion pound investment in Crossrail.

HS2 will benefit the South West by developing the capability to design, build, operate and maintain high speed lines in the UK, a springboard from which, as/if over time existing routes/projects fill to capacity the concept can be rolled out further.

The first Liverpoool to Manc and London to Birmingham railways didn't benefit the SW either. But the revolution in IC transport they led certainly did. Neither did the M6 or M1 or connecting places other than the SW to the national grid ()although the concept of motorways and a national power infrastructure did and subsequently was rolled out nationwide). Why should any one investment at any given point have to benefit every part of the country ?

The GWML upgrade happening now won't for instance benefit people in the midlands or North ? surely that money could be better spent benefiting places that affect more people? There is for instance, much more poverty in the midlands and north, so why spend any money on the SW as it could always benefit greater numbers, and greater deprivation elsewhere.

Yet who would actually seriously argue against the GWML upgrade on such a selfishly stupid logic ?

HS2 will benefit nearly all parts of the country. It will cost the same as projects that just benefit the SE at present (Crossrail/Thameslink) so that seems a pretty strong argument in it's favour. The SW may be able to rightly claim it doesn't get the same share in the same timeframe, but then it is getting the GWML upgrade right now, with the probability of things to follow.

The SW gets HST IC services, SWT 159s and will be the first to get the new generation of IEP trains - I'm not sure it is hard done by in comparison to much of the North (outside major conurbations) and East of the country.

The details of HS2 are up for debate I feel, but the principle is to my mind, evidently sound: building a new dedicated express line is easier/cheaper and more likely to succeed than trying to upgrade existing lines in which only the most complex and difficult possibilities of upgrade remain, whilst also ensuring that the existing network can continue to operate largely free of chaotic disruption during the process.

As our European neighbours, and trailblazing Japanese have shown - this is a proven concept in developing a nations transport infrastructure. Has in fact, anyone tried to upgrade lines beyond which UK lines are already at (indeed, does anyone have a legacy rail network almost entirely derived from original century+ old construction, actually as developed as the UKs?).

The need for additional capacity is proven by day to day reality and future modelling, further reinforced by the fact that modelling to date has in fact underestimated growth. The ease/cost effectiveness is best proven by the cost/benefit analysis of the WCML upgrade which surely drives a nail into the "just add more tracks/upgrade existing routes" concept.



My question on HS2 is that I understand Phase 1 (Lond-Birm) will have a capacity of say 30 tph, in order to be able to take say 15 tph from each of the arms of the Y.
Assuming this is a correct interpretation (...?), the inference is a) intermediate stops on Phase 1 would reduce the 30tph to say 26tph, with a corresponding reduction to 13tph on the arms which would be below the capacity needed on those, and b) that given all of it will be built as 3XXkm/h twin track, then the arms must have a similar latent 30tph capability that can never be used because if both ran at capacity, the Phase 1 part would be overloaded.

Thus at some point, quad tracking Phase 1, or a second route to London would be needed to fully utilise the capacity of the system ?

[numbers made up for example]

Alternatively, the "spare" capacity on the arms could be used by services that do not come from or go to London - i.e. XC type ones coming from the SW or originating/terminating at Birmingham ??

 

[Ironside]

The extra capacity in the v of the y could be used for either classic compatable or captive services from the north and Scotland, but teminating at brum. I suppose you could also have a compatable service from Wales or west country: although I don't know what the practicalities or that proposal is a it's just my speculation. I would like a high speed line from Cardiff and or Bristol to Birmingham but I don't have the numbers to back that statement up either.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Corfield while what you say mostly is quite right. 30tph is certainly not the frequency. It will be 18tph at the absolute maximum. 30tph is very optimistic!!!!

6G man... well yes they are the most overcrowded but where are those people coming from? Is it plymouth? no its reading and the thames valley which are being electrified and crossrailed (yeah thats now a word :P) So unfortunately your arguement does not stack up.

 

[Deerfold]

Alternatively, the "spare" capacity on the arms could be used by services that do not come from or go to London - i.e. XC type ones coming from the SW or originating/terminating at Birmingham ??

Perhaps - or you could use up both by having Leeds - Manchester via Birmingham.

 

[tbtc]

how does HS2 benefit trains to Plymouth, Bristol or South Wales?

How does Crossrail benefit passengers in Yorkshire?

How does electrification of the GWML to Swansea/ Bristol improve things for people in Norwich?

How does IEP on Paddington route help people in Dover?

 

[HSTEd]

HS2 will develop the construction base that will hopefully make additional lines cheaper.

The alterations in the psyche of transport planners will be priceless.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Answers in Bold

How does Crossrail benefit passengers in Yorkshire?
By giving people from Yorkshire some nice shiny (well horrible old) trains to run and we should be very grateful!

How does electrification of the GWML to Swansea/ Bristol improve things for people in Norwich?
Gives people in Norwich a nice place to move to with nice commuting options so they do not have to suffer Norwich anymore

How does IEP on Paddington route help people in Dover?
Stops people arriving in the country seeing the IEPs first....

Yes this was comedy..... Do not argue against it :P

 

[Kettledrum]

But weren't we told on Wednesday night's tv programme that IC services out of Paddington were the most overloaded in the UK?

Certainly the crush loading filmed out of Paddington (and a fortnight earlier out of Kings Cross) was far worse than anything I've seen out of Euston!

So how does HS2 benefit trains to Plymouth, Bristol or South Wales? And any benefit out of Kings Cross will be marginal - and very long-term.

£2bn per annum over the next 16 years or so could make a significant difference to a lot of routes.

......but work to improve the Paddington route is already in hand. The construction of Crossrail and the electrification of the route will bring huge benefits long before high speed 2 is built.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Oh dear, looks like I am on a sticky-wicket here!! But the old fact remains that it is so so very easy to spend other peoples money on the Treasury Credit card, but who pays in the end??
My final comment is that I personally believe that £32b would be better spent improving what we have and making life for "all" commuters better, not just HS2 customers.
Good luck and Best of British mates !!!

Rather than view it as the Treasury's Credit Card, you could look at from the point of view as a business that is able to borrow money on a mortgage at extremely low interest rate. The business will invest it in a way that will give it an income stream. For the government, some of the income stream will be direct from passengers over the next decades, and some from future tax revenues from the ecomonic activity that will take place because of the new route. Not really like a credit card at all.

 

[The Ham]

But weren't we told on Wednesday night's tv programme that IC services out of Paddington were the most overloaded in the UK?

Certainly the crush loading filmed out of Paddington (and a fortnight earlier out of Kings Cross) was far worse than anything I've seen out of Euston!

So how does HS2 benefit trains to Plymouth, Bristol or South Wales? And any benefit out of Kings Cross will be marginal - and very long-term.

£2bn per annum over the next 16 years or so could make a significant difference to a lot of routes.

Well to reduce IC overcrowding at Paddington all that needs to happen is make the first stop for most trains a lot further out than Reading, which is what has happened on the WCML by missing out Milton Keynes from many of the Virgin services. However as Reading is such a major junction that is never going to happen, so the IC services have to cope with being commuter trains.

Also HS2 isn't planned to start being built before Crossrail is built (which will have some benefit to the the GWML), buy which point or a year or two later (as others have said) the Reading station improvements will be built, the electrification to will be done, the higher capacity IEP will be running, new or newish EMU's will be running (which may only be a few minutes slower than the IEP's so less reason for people to change to the IC trains).

All that is BEFORE what is known about what the new franchise will bring in terms of benefits, which could include more services (as Reading is no longer a limiting factor), lengthening of the commuter services and the like.

Also there maybe (for whatever reason) some people who currently use XC services into Reading to get to London, by reliving pressure on the WCML, ECML and MML this is likely to become a far less attractive route.

The other thing is HS2 will require the building of Crossrail 2 (which is likely to need building at the same time as HS2), which does directly improve things on the SWML, which could mean more services to Exeter. However even ignoring any possible benefits to the SW it will potentially benefit the south coast services by enabling more longer distance services to run into Waterloo. Also it benefits train services to the North East of London in the same way.

All in all HS2 will benefit a lot more of the country than just London & Birmingham which is what is portrayed by those opposed to it. Yes there are risks associated with such a big project but the risks are fairly small compared to any other option.

For instance the anti HS2 groups say that they can meet the capacity requirements of 2026, however that is based on growth of just 2.5%, what happens if growth keeps going at it's current rate (about 5% per year) and teleworking doesn't take off as fast as they would hope (Esp. as Yahoo has told it's workforce that they can not do that any more - I know not based in the UK, but others may follow suit or decide not to allow their staff to work from home based on that).

If the numbers of passengers reach the 2026 levels by 2021 what then? This could be very possible, as we are already (Sept 2012) running with more growth than the 2010 forecast said we should have by the end of 2014). With HS2 on the horizon it wouldn't be too bad, there would be stop gap measures that could be put in place to bridge the gap. However if HS2 is cancelled then it could take another 10 years before it could be built, there wouldn't be nearly enough measures that could be done to solve the short term fix.

The other thing which is overlooked is that HS2 isn't forecast to increase the number of passengers over "normal" growth rates, which is highly unlikely to happen as a nice new fast train service will attract a lot more people. As will trains with more empty seats left on the existing lines.

 

[RichW1]

My ONLY concern with HS2 is the fact it is only 2 tracks south of Birmingham and given the congestion of the Paris - Lyon route which is now full (and they're smaller city's than London and Manchester/Birmingham) it becomes very worrying indeed. Oh and did I mention the same line will have to take traffic from Glasgow, Edinburgh, Leeds, Liverpool (feels a huge gulp as he thinks about the sheer numbers!)

We expect 2 tracks to handle the traffic from every major city in the country except Bristol funnelled onto it - just 2 tracks. Even at 3 minute headways and longer trains France could not achieve it with 1/3 of the population numbers this line would need to handle at the southern end. Can anyone explain to me how they think this will work given the the example above? Monsieur Pepe or Pepi (whatever the spelling) of SNCF said we should make it 4 tracks from the start or we'll regret it.

 

[YorkshireBear]

My ONLY concern with HS2 is the fact it is only 2 tracks south of Birmingham and given the congestion of the Paris - Lyon route which is now full (and they're smaller city's than London and Manchester/Birmingham) it becomes very worrying indeed. Oh and did I mention the same line will have to take traffic from Glasgow, Edinburgh, Leeds, Liverpool (feels a huge gulp as he thinks about the sheer numbers!)

We expect 2 tracks to handle the traffic from every major city in the country except Bristol funnelled onto it - just 2 tracks. Even at 3 minute headways and longer trains France could not achieve it with 1/3 of the population numbers this line would need to handle at the southern end. Can anyone explain to me how they think this will work given the the example above? Monsieur Pepe or Pepi (whatever the spelling) of SNCF said we should make it 4 tracks from the start or we'll regret it.

The report given by HS2 and greengauge says that 4 tracking is prohibitively expensive and the best option is should future passenger numbers require it a second line should be built direct to the Midlands so that the NE is served separately. The existing Toton-Birmingham line would only then be used for NE to Birmingham/Heathrow(if they build it) services

 

[The Ham]

My ONLY concern with HS2 is the fact it is only 2 tracks south of Birmingham and given the congestion of the Paris - Lyon route which is now full (and they're smaller city's than London and Manchester/Birmingham) it becomes very worrying indeed. Oh and did I mention the same line will have to take traffic from Glasgow, Edinburgh, Leeds, Liverpool (feels a huge gulp as he thinks about the sheer numbers!)

We expect 2 tracks to handle the traffic from every major city in the country except Bristol funnelled onto it - just 2 tracks. Even at 3 minute headways and longer trains France could not achieve it with 1/3 of the population numbers this line would need to handle at the southern end. Can anyone explain to me how they think this will work given the the example above? Monsieur Pepe or Pepi (whatever the spelling) of SNCF said we should make it 4 tracks from the start or we'll regret it.

If we built it as four track then, as YorkshireBear said, it would be more expensive. Which would be fine if nearly everyone thought it was a good idea, however as there are a lot of people who don't even think 2 tracks are needed and that the money should be spent on other things I think that the best option is to go for two track and then build another route north at a later date.

I also think that HS2 will be a lot better used that the forecasts show and that we'll be seriously short of railway capacity before it is built and will be looking for ways to build on its success within a few years of the full Y being finished.

Given our railways where mainly built to more freight around and passengers where a happy bonus there is likely to be other unforeseen bonuses to building HS2.

 

[RichW1]

The report given by HS2 and greengauge says that 4 tracking is prohibitively expensive and the best option is should future passenger numbers require it a second line should be built direct to the Midlands so that the NE is served separately. The existing Toton-Birmingham line would only then be used for NE to Birmingham/Heathrow(if they build it) services

With that being the case I guess that solves that one! I'd look forward to Javelin type commuter trains right around the Pennine cities (but with a much more welcoming lighting scheme than we get on the London and South East ones now!)
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Well The Ham, it looks like that one's been well and truly put to bed then. Only hope if we do need to build such a line (and I think we will at some point) we don't sit on our hands for decades this time Finally we all have momentum behind what was just infrastructure fantasy land even a decade ago!

 

[Ironside]

The report given by HS2 and greengauge says that 4 tracking is prohibitively expensive and the best option is should future passenger numbers require it a second line should be built direct to the Midlands so that the NE is served separately. The existing Toton-Birmingham line would only then be used for NE to Birmingham/Heathrow(if they build it) services

By midlands I presume you mean central/east midlands ie Leicester Nottingham?

 

[Haydn1971]

My ONLY concern with HS2 is the fact it is only 2 tracks south of Birmingham

That is actually covered in the latest reports in that a single station in London couldn't handle upto 40x400m trains per hour and that the cost of building wider wouldn't be much different to building a second line into London, which I suspect would end up being along the ECML route to again split the east and west pennine passengers - It's not on the agenda now, but will be at some point after Phase 1 opens or once a decision on where the national hub airport moves to if Heathrow is deemed too difficult to expend to four runways. This is (in my opinion) also an undisclosed factor as to why the full twin bore tunnel linking HS2 to HS1 wasn't pushed forward - as anything from Stansted clockwise to Kent will require consideration of extending HS2 from Old Oak, beyond Euston to wherever the alternative hub ends up if its not Heathrow - hopefully this will be resolved in the next 3-5 years preferable before construction of the single bore tunnel starts

 

[YorkshireBear]

By midlands I presume you mean central/east midlands ie Leicester Nottingham?

Yes i think Leicester would get a parkway station.

 

[HSTEd]

I still think the Western Route via Oxford is more useful in the interim than an all out route from KGX or similar through the East MIdlands to Nottingham.

We will probably need both eventually but the Oxford route would be full from day one quite reasonably, which is what we need for economic payback on these things.

To build out of Paddington you only have to demolish the Vodafone HQ to make room in the station throat, to built out of KGX you have to demolish multiple buildings and move a canal onto a bridge over the expanded station approach, that will be far far more expensive and disruptive.

 

[Nym]

Would one not be looking to build out from Liverpool St / Bishopgate for "HS3 via Cambridge"? Although I think that space is long gone now, I've seen stratford mentioned too, although by the time you're there, you may as well terminate at Kentish Town...

 

[Haydn1971]

Would one not be looking to build out from Liverpool St / Bishopgate for "HS3 via Cambridge"? Although I think that space is long gone now, I've seen stratford mentioned too, although by the time you're there, you may as well terminate at Kentish Town...

Liverpool Street area would be great for access to "the city" but I'm struggling to see where - I suspect that probably yes, Stratford would be ideal for a eastern version of Old Oak, with a reduced number of services continuing on via HS1 perhaps to a re-engineered Kings Cross or perhaps even St Pancras, moving the CTRL terminus (again) to Old Oak, with a stop at Stratford on the way to Europe ?

 

[D365]

Would anyone let St Pancras be 'abandoned'? I reckon London has too many stations with not enough platforms to balance out for one or two central HSX termini. Can't we be a little more ruthless :P

 

[tbtc]

Would anyone let St Pancras be 'abandoned'? I reckon London has too many stations with not enough platforms to balance out for one or two central HSX termini. Can't we be a little more ruthless :P

Maybe any spare capacity at St P could be used for the MML - bit cramped in there coping with five departures an hour to Corby/ Nottingham/ Sheffield...

Not that we are as important as the continental services, of course.

 

[YorkshireBear]

Personally i think a huge subsurface station is what is needed, nearby to a crossrail stations preferably or at least 1 or 2 tube lines. Serve all the High Speed Lines maybe even including Eurostar, then have St Pancras as the MML and HS1 commuter station. How much this would cost is a very different matter!!!

As many platforms as needed all 400m long, build this only when second line is built, have a route from the HS2 route to Birmingham into the station too and then Euston can have all the extra platforms for WCML Commuter services.

An aspiring Civil Engineer can only hope.

 

[D365]

Would anyone let St Pancras be 'abandoned'? I reckon London has too many stations with not enough platforms to balance out for one or two central HSX termini. Can't we be a little more ruthless :P

Maybe any spare capacity at St P could be used for the MML - bit cramped in there coping with five departures an hour to Corby/ Nottingham/ Sheffield...

Not that we are as important as the continental services, of course.

Yes and the media will be completely all over it after how much we spent on Pancakes and that the station will be left to rot like Waterloo or something... Quicker turnarounds may be possible? :/

 

[Martin222002]

Would anyone let St Pancras be 'abandoned'? I reckon London has too many stations with not enough platforms to balance out for one or two central HSX termini. Can't we be a little more ruthless :P

Well I think you have answered your own question there, given that St Pancras has 6 platforms capable to handling 400m trains.

I quite like the idea of possibly using St Pancras' Eurostar platforms as the terminus of any eastern HS2 link, with Eurostar terminating at Old Oak Common, with connections via HS2 to the West Midlands, North West and Scotland and Crossrail and Heathrow Express to Heathrow, calling at Stratford International for connections via the DLR to the Docklands, Crossrail to The City, the GEML to East Anglia, and Overground services.

 

[D365]

Personally i think a huge subsurface station is what is needed, nearby to a crossrail stations preferably or at least 1 or 2 tube lines. Serve all the High Speed Lines maybe even including Eurostar, then have St Pancras as the MML and HS1 commuter station. How much this would cost is a very different matter!!!

As many platforms as needed all 400m long, build this only when second line is built, have a route from the HS2 route to Birmingham into the station too and then Euston can have all the extra platforms for WCML Commuter services.

An aspiring Civil Engineer can only hope.

Challenge Accepted. Or even better, merge all central London termini into one complex. Who cares about them half-baked builds. Do a Stuttgart. Fantasy thread time by my watch :P

Or not. I certainly don't have the time!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Would anyone let St Pancras be 'abandoned'? I reckon London has too many stations with not enough platforms to balance out for one or two central HSX termini. Can't we be a little more ruthless :P

Well I think you have answered your own question there, given that St Pancras has 6 platforms capable to handling 400m trains.

I quite like the idea of possibly using St Pancras' Eurostar platforms as the terminus of any eastern HS2 link, with Eurostar terminating at Old Oak Common, with connections via HS2 to the West Midlands, North West and Scotland and Crossrail and Heathrow Express to Heathrow, calling at Stratford International for connections via the DLR to the Docklands, Crossrail to The City, the GEML to East Anglia, and Overground services.

Look at what happened to Waterloo, although in defence it wouldn't be possible to get HS1 in. Wouldn't OOC be a bit far for the prestigious Eurostar? The media would be on that too! These plans do seem a bit far-fetched...