Hendy Report

[lejog]

I thought I would start a new thread on the Hendy report into Network Rail's CP5 projects. The report is due out alongside the Autumn statement tomorrow and the first report has appeared here: http://www.theguardian.com/busines...osborne-network-rail-budget-autumn-statement

The key points seem to be:


Looks like generally good news with extra funding. Looking forward to seeing the details...

Mods please move as necessary.

Is it true that there's extra budget? My reading of this report (and the Chancellor's budget statement) is that funding remains unchanged and Network Rail:

- will cut spending on maintenance.
- have burnt up contingency, so there is little scope for further cockups.
- will shift work into CP6, delivering less in CP5.
- sell off more assets than planned in CP5.

 

[76020]

Electrification:
Reading/Didcot by end 2017 (August, possibly)
Oxford/Newbury/Cardiff/Bristol by end 2019
Cardiff-Swansea pushed back to CP6
Maidenhead-Marlow deleted, no mention of Basingstoke

Bromsgrove end 2016
Walsall-Rugeley end 2017
Gospel Oak-Barking looks like end 2018.

No detail on East West Rail, Electric Spine pushed back to CP6.

A new set of detailed milestones will be published in early December.
The overarching problem is now "can NR deliver it", rather than "can NR afford it".

Much of the detail in the report is disappointingly generic and at times deliberately vague.

EDIT: I may have been pessimistic in reading the charts.
I assumed the years were calendar years, whereas they are more likely to be financial years (ie end 2019 should be March 2019, ie end of CP5).
So not quite as bad as I at first thought.
I think that means Reading/Didcot is Dec 2016, and the rest as far as Cardiff is Mar 2019.

Basingstoke Electrification
It's at the bottom of page 37 in the report under projects being developed in CP5 and delivered in CP6

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Basingstoke Electrification
It's at the bottom of page 37 in the report under projects being developed in CP5 and delivered in CP6

Yes, that list is more reliable than the regional descriptions.

 

[swt_passenger]

Yes, that list is more reliable than the regional descriptions.

To be fair to them, the 'Basingstoke Branch' never had many dates given, it was nearly all TBA in the last enhancement milestones. Only the Grip 3 decision (single option selection) had a date, and it wasn't due until December 15.

 

[Magicake]

Is it true that there's extra budget? My reading of this report (and the Chancellor's budget statement) is that funding remains unchanged and Network Rail:

- will cut spending on maintenance.
- have burnt up contingency, so there is little scope for further cockups.
- will shift work into CP6, delivering less in CP5.
- sell off more assets than planned in CP5.

After more detailed reading I think you're right. The closest thing to extra money seems to be that NR are going to be permitted to borrow an additional £700million. Quite what the difference between the Government borrowing money and giving it to NR as funding and NR borrowing money with the Government guaranteeing it is is probably one for the economists.

 

[WatcherZero]

Is it true that there's extra budget? My reading of this report (and the Chancellor's budget statement) is that funding remains unchanged and Network Rail:

- will cut spending on maintenance.
- have burnt up contingency, so there is little scope for further cockups.
- will shift work into CP6, delivering less in CP5.
- sell off more assets than planned in CP5.

Yes there is, Network Rail have to raise £1.8bn from asset sales and Dft are putting another £700m in to the control period for a total of £2.5bn extra funding.

 

[Taunton]

I am still hopeful that the report will explain just how the GW project went (I know everywhere has different figures) from £640m when released to £2.8bn now, more than four times as much, for the same number of route miles electrified, and presumably the same number of carriages, masts, kilometres of wire, number of substations, etc.

 

[WatcherZero]

Well originally it was just electrification then it was combined with signalling which took it to £1.2bn, then it was more work than they first estimated taking it to something like £1.6bn finally they encountered when the work actually started that BR hadn't kept records of the position of signalling cables when it had renewed them in the 70's and on two occasions they accidentally piled through cable. They then had to implement a program of test drilling by hand to check for cables before each pile was dug massively increasing the cost and timescale.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Indeed (except that list omits a Phase 0!).
The project list is actually clearer than the more detailed regional descriptions higher up.
Oxford-Bletchley electrification now CP6.
East West Phase 2 now starting "as soon as possible", which is not a project management term I recognise.
I see Windermere and Wigan electrification is now CP6 (GRIP 3 only in CP5).

Not sure Wigan and Oxenholme are, it is noted that its presently at Grip3 but its listed under projects to be developed and delivered during CP5 column, not under projects developed in CP5 and delivered in CP6 or developed and delivered in CP6.

 

[snowball]

It doesn't actually mention CP6 in connection with Windermere and Lostock-Wigan. It just says in one place that they'll complete GRIP3 in CP5 and in another place that a construction timetable will be announced for them then.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

It doesn't actually mention CP6 in connection with Windermere and Lostock-Wigan. It just says in one place that they'll complete GRIP3 in CP5 and in another place that a construction timetable will be announced for them then.

It's a novel way of working - working out what's needed and what can be done before announcing a completion date. It'll never catch on...

 

[LTJ87]

Regarding the MML works, I note that the straightening of track at Market Harborough is to go ahead in CP5. However, does anyone have any firm timescales and scope for this work? I've only seen the proposal discussed in general terms and no firm plans.

 

[edwin_m]

It's a novel way of working - working out what's needed and what can be done before announcing a completion date. It'll never catch on...

Even more unlikely that someone will actually work out properly how much it is going to cost...

 

[WatcherZero]

It's a novel way of working - working out what's needed and what can be done before announcing a completion date. It'll never catch on...

Yes, the whole emphasis of the report is 'lets concentrate first on finishing the projects we have started spending money on before moving on to others we haven't started yet' They seem to consider the Grip 3 work as having spent money so do it first, whereas MML they consider weve not started yet so put it off till later.


Incidentally Government has followed through on a recommendation from Adonis and his new Infrastructure Commission that there should be separate pots for developing schemes to single option selection and for funding the actual construction (speeding up development by the whole budget not having to be in place from the start and allowing costing's to be better known before a project is authorised) by putting aside £300m solely for development work on Crossrail 2/HS3 and any other projects.

 

[Jonny]

It's going to take two more years to electrify Airport Jn to Didcot!? It really does take a while to sink in what's happened with this project.

The wiring of Reading and eastwards is part of Crossrail (which was green-lighted earlier), how would Crossrail EMUs run on the GWML east of and up to Reading otherwise?

Newbury would then be a quick win, as it would only need little work to complete that leg for the bi-modes.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Even more unlikely that someone will actually work out properly how much it is going to cost...

It's almost impossible to work out how much things are going to cost when you're given a completion date first and have to work backwards and then forwards (often several times) to fit in and around that.

The main problem with random completion dates far detached from reality is that they then feed into rolling stock cascades and orders, or timetable changes, which cause an almighty amount of trouble when it all goes wrong.

If the project actually works on a vague 'sometime in CP5, maybe CP6' sort of timeframe, and we run through the GRIP stages consecutively without an artificial (and highly political) constraint at the end, costings are easy to get very much within a small margin of error, with a relatively small contingency for the completely unexpected (not just things we didn't have time to look for).

It's certainly been the case for far too long that the excuse 'it's a 180 year old railway - we keep finding things we didn't expect' is acceptable, and yes, to a certain extent, it's always going to be a problem, but lots of the 180 year old railway has been poked around recently by British Rail, Railtrack and Network Rail, and had proper records been kept or proper surveys carried out, we would know what's under foot and behind retaining walls.

 

[snowball]

The wiring of Reading and eastwards is part of Crossrail (which was green-lighted earlier).

I think the wiring of Maidenhead to Reading still being managed as part of GWML because that was authorised before the extension of Crossrail beyond Maidenhead.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

OK sorry to ask this question as it has probably been asked before.
We have the Bowe report.
We have the Hendy report.

What/when is the next report due out? I thought a refresh of the 2009 Network RUS-Electrification was going to happen. I also thought there was something due out in December. What am I missing?

 

[CdBrux]

I am still hopeful that the report will explain just how the GW project went (I know everywhere has different figures) from £640m when released to £2.8bn now, more than four times as much, for the same number of route miles electrified, and presumably the same number of carriages, masts, kilometres of wire, number of substations, etc.

I think the Bowe report will help you there.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ork-rails-enhancements-programme-2014-to-2019

 

[swt_passenger]

I think the wiring of Maidenhead to Reading still being managed as part of GWML because that was authorised before the extension of Crossrail beyond Maidenhead.

It was mentioned in the main GW electrification thread that the contractor for the Maidenhead to Reading section is now the same firm as that on Stockley to Maidenhead, but they are still working on separate contracts.

At the end of the day they are both Network Rail managed projects, using the same hardware, but just differently funded. 'Crossrail on existing network' is still managed by Network Rail in other words.

 

[jimm]

OK sorry to ask this question as it has probably been asked before.
We have the Bowe report.
We have the Hendy report.

What/when is the next report due out? I thought a refresh of the 2009 Network RUS-Electrification was going to happen. I also thought there was something due out in December. What am I missing?

What is described in the Hendy Report as the draft update of the Enhancement Delivery Plan will be published "early in December", which will presumably give more detail on the scheduling of work up to 2019 in the light of the various reviews.

 

[snowball]

OK sorry to ask this question as it has probably been asked before.
We have the Bowe report.
We have the Hendy report.

What/when is the next report due out? I thought a refresh of the 2009 Network RUS-Electrification was going to happen. I also thought there was something due out in December. What am I missing?

I think the December one will be a more fleshed out version of the Hendy report, and perhaps akin to previous updates of the CP5 Enhancements Delivery Plan. Unless there's some other report due in December that you've heard of and I haven't.

I would imagine the RUS Electrification Refresh has been dropped for the time being as it's about the next round of electrification schemes, while everyone is occupied with the current round which are taking longer and costing more than expected. Maybe something similar to the Refresh will be attempted in a couple of years or so.

We've only had a preliminary report from Nicola Shaw, there must be a final report due some time.

 

[swt_passenger]

What/when is the next report due out? I thought a refresh of the 2009 Network RUS-Electrification was going to happen.

The electrification refresh supposedly due in 2015 is just a part of normal (delayed) business though. It wouldn't receive the same advance publicity as something like Hendy's or Bowe's reports which are the response to DfT sudden requirements for answers...

 

[Philip Phlopp]

The electrification refresh supposedly due in 2015 is just a part of normal (delayed) business though. It wouldn't receive the same advance publicity as something like Hendy's or Bowe's reports which are the response to DfT sudden requirements for answers...

It's still happening, but isn't desperately needed until either electrification projects for CP6 are chosen (and there's not much capacity to do a lot until 2022 onwards), or if 'Electrification' becomes a CrossRail type project sitting outwith the normal control periods, as has been recommended, but we're still not going to have the capacity to do anything until post 2022 in any case.

The only benefit the Electrification RUS could possibly have is if it then leads to a properly planned 15 to 25 year program (much like the Scottish STPR) and specifically defines in what order routes will be electrified, even then, it's only of use if funding is made available for sensible preparation works, so electrification only consists of putting piles into the ground, erecting masts and running wires, and not lots of tedious crap like moving things out of the way of piling locations.

 

[MarkRedon]

In what might be viewed as a case of the biter bitten, Rail Technology Magazine is reporting that the Office of Rail and Road is criticising the Hendy report:

The rail regulator also claimed that the “extent of capability weaknesses” that Network Rail must address – through the conclusion of its enhancements programme – has become more apparent, with systemic weaknesses left unresolved.

“These will inevitably introduce uncertainties around the accuracy of such a hurried and complex re-plan,” the ORR added.

The same magazine also reports that the ORR has identified:

'Very poor use’ of midweek access on GWML bigger issue than buried signalling

Despite the known issues with buried signalling cables, the Office of Rail and Road (ORR) is “much more concerned” about Network Rail’s very poor use of midweek access as it tries to make progress on the troubled Great Western electrification programme.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Another week gone and still no detail on the CP5 plans.
The Hendy Report promised a detailed revision of CP5 project milestones in "early December" (page 8).
As far as I am aware this hasn't happened.
We are now close to the point where it will all be put off until the new year.
It wouldn't be very impressive if NR misses its first new milestone...
Or another reason might be that NR has produced the report but the DfT doesn't want it published (waiting to bury bad news etc).
Anybody got any insight?

 

[Philip Phlopp]

Another week gone and still no detail on the CP5 plans.
The Hendy Report promised a detailed revision of CP5 project milestones in "early December" (page 8).
As far as I am aware this hasn't happened.
We are now close to the point where it will all be put off until the new year.
It wouldn't be very impressive if NR misses its first new milestone...
Or another reason might be that NR has produced the report but the DfT doesn't want it published (waiting to bury bad news etc).
Anybody got any insight?

It might sneak out before Christmas, but there has been and still are rather more important things to do between now and January, none of which are producing hastily written frothy reports full of vague promises. It was a damned stupid time to try and release it anyway, but presumably they didn't want it coming out in January if there's been another over-running engineering disaster.

The flooding in Northwest England and the Scottish Borders has needed a lot of resources and lots of spare parts, there's lots of planning and double checking, fine tuning and shouting at plant companies, suppliers and others going for the big Christmas and New Year blockades and possessions too.

The people who need to answer questions in order to formulate Hendy's CP5 delivery plan, well, they'll be constantly engaged on the phone and their e-mail inboxes will be overflowing right now.

 

[Chris125]

The following TfGM paper has a table on page 5 showing updated timescales for the various projects affecting the area:

https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/download/meetings/id/461/item_14

It seems most projects have been delayed to some extent.

 

[Philip Phlopp]

The following TfGM paper has a table on page 5 showing updated timescales for the various projects affecting the area:

https://www.greatermanchester-ca.gov.uk/download/meetings/id/461/item_14

It seems most projects have been delayed to some extent.

It's mainly the fault of Balfour Beatty, with a few genuine issues like Farnworth tripping the teams involved up too.

If BB hadn't been so busy trying to fend off Carillion and spin off Parsons Brinckerhoff, and had been paying attention to things not getting done and issues developing, NW electrification might still be on or close to time and budget.

 

[backontrack]

It's unsurprising that the part of GWML electrification that has been pushed back is the wholly Welsh section. :roll:

 

[Philip Phlopp]

It's unsurprising that the part of GWML electrification that has been pushed back is the wholly Welsh section. :roll:

Indeed, utterly unsurprising that the electrification work has been planned around CrossRail outputs between Paddington and Reading, has been planned around major maintenance and a complete reworking of the maintenance of the Severn Tunnel, and will be carried out in Wales once the CP6 upgrade plans for Newport to Cardiff are agreed to by NR and WAG, and that everything is done to coincide with Valley Lines electrification.

Or wasn't that the points you were trying to raise ?