Heatwave what Heatwave ?

[Darandio]

we just got on with things….

Maybe you did.

Nearly 1000 excess deaths, major drought, wildfires, half a £billion in crops lost with resultant price rises. Sounds fantastic.

 

[philosopher]

... and 24 hours ago, I bought me an air-con unit.

It's a bit noisy, but then I'm deaf, so hardly hear it.
I have it on my landing blowing cooled air downstairs, and there does seem to be an improvement in the lounge, where it feels dryer and fresher. Never thought I'd need one in the UK, but I think I'm now in an "at risk" category, having survived a heart attack in December 2019.

Ten years ago I would have said air conditioning was a bit of a waste of money in the UK. However given Southeast England in most years now seems to have at least a few days of mid to high thirties temperatures, it is getting to the point where it becomes worth it and for those vulnerable to heat arguably essential if you live in the Southeast of England.

The tragic irony of this is that if people rush out to buy air conditioners it will make reaching net carbon zero harder due to large amounts of electricity they consume.

 

[johnnychips]

Maybe you did.

Nearly 1000 excess deaths, major drought, wildfires, half a £billion in crops lost with resultant price rises. Sounds fantastic.

I know what you are saying, but actually I agree with @londonbridge It was just a case of ‘these things happen, do your best’ and then we only found about the consequences afterwards.

 

[Howardh]

Sone of us remember the summer of 76……there were no ‘heat health warnings’, the country didn’t grind to a halt, no state of emergency declared, we just got on with things….

Dennis Howell came to the rescue!

For those of you not of a certain age, he became the "Minister for Drought" and it almost immediately poured down!

 

[brad465]

Sone of us remember the summer of 76……there were no ‘heat health warnings’, the country didn’t grind to a halt, no state of emergency declared, we just got on with things….

2018 is the most recent example that is arguably comparable to 1976, with the Met Office declaring summer 2018 the joint hottest on record, and that year had plenty of issues including wildfires (Saddleworth Moor probably most notably), hosepipe bans and other issues.

I was not around in 1976, but what I think has happened since then to cause more vocal concern about heatwaves is, as well as greater awareness of weather extremes, the UK population has increased both numerically and in average age. These cause extreme weather events (and maybe other problems too) to have more of an impact. The health service sees greater demand, especially if capacity hasn't increased to cope, and as older people are more vulnerable to extreme temperatures, hot and cold, more older people means more are notably impacted. There is also more demand for water and electricity to cope with higher temperatures, and again if capacity/resilience hasn't kept up, then shocks/shortages are more likely.

Of course with this heatwave we're also talking about 40C being reached, something that never happened in 1976.

 

[GusB]

Heatwave? Could have fooled me! I don't think it got much above 15°C here today. It felt a bit colder with the wind, resulting in the windows being closed and the heating being switched on to take the chill off the air for a while.

I'm looking forward to a few warmer days, but then again it's going to be nowhere near as bad as in the south.

 

[najaB]

Sone of us remember the summer of 76……there were no ‘heat health warnings’, the country didn’t grind to a halt, no state of emergency declared, we just got on with things….

And the peak temperatures were some 5 to 6 degrees cooler than those forecast for next week.

 

[43301]

2018 is the most recent example that is arguably comparable to 1976, with the Met Office declaring summer 2018 the joint hottest on record, and that year had plenty of issues including wildfires (Saddleworth Moor probably most notably), hosepipe bans and other issues.

I was not around in 1976, but what I think has happened since then to cause more vocal concern about heatwaves is, as well as greater awareness of weather extremes, the UK population has increased both numerically and in average age. These cause extreme weather events (and maybe other problems too) to have more of an impact. The health service sees greater demand, especially if capacity hasn't increased to cope, and as older people are more vulnerable to extreme temperatures, hot and cold, more older people means more are notably impacted. There is also more demand for water and electricity to cope with higher temperatures, and again if capacity/resilience hasn't kept up, then shocks/shortages are more likely.

Of course with this heatwave we're also talking about 40C being reached, something that never happened in 1976.

A lot of it is just the 24-hours news cycle and the internet / social media - they have to make a drama out of everything!

 

[Strathclyder]

The heatwave that sticks out the most - during my lifetime at least and barring 2018 - is 2006, we were holidaying in Western Ireland (County Galway IIRC) during the height of it. There were a few days where the family car was verging on becoming a literal oven, or at least feeling like one.

As for this particular heatwave, it looks likely to top out at 27° (feeling like it's in the low 30s, at most 33°) here in Clydebank on the 19th between 1 and 5PM (though the BBC site's 'temperature feels like' stat indicates it won't drop below 30° here until at least 8PM that evening). Not quite topping the high of June 2018 - where it climbed beyond 30° on the 28th that month, remember there being virtually no clouds in the sky here for most of that day - and nothing like what the South of England is expecting, but exceptional regardless given what the weather has been throwing at us 'Bankies' over the last few weeks: sunny, breezy days, immediately followed by dull, overcast and (un)surprisingly nippy ones (with a few rainy ones predictably thrown in).

It's not so much the heat itself that does me in during the summer, it's the bloody pollen. Wreaks havoc with my asthma etc. Already been sneezing up a storm these past few days. Not looking forward to Monday/Tuesday at all in that respect.

 

[Lost property]

Sone of us remember the summer of 76……there were no ‘heat health warnings’, the country didn’t grind to a halt, no state of emergency declared, we just got on with things….

As other have said, we've progressed a long way since '76 in terms of understanding and trying to prevent the acute symptoms excessive heat can induce. I remember it very well, I was in a desert previously known as the Vale of Glamorgan at the time...I also recall the daily reports of infrastructure failures, deaths, water rationing and the, at times, "British stiff upper lip / stoicism " exhortations ...which I ignored and always have / will.

The break down came at the August B H and I / we, were stuck in Ostende intending to fly back in a light aircraft to the UK...the Cu.nims across the Channel were very impressive...viewed from a safe distance.

 

[102 fan]

We're only getting up to 21 Degrees in N I. When I was young sunny days in June, July or August were called a summer, and were enjoyed. Now it's 'The end is nigh!'

It'll not be long until the season changes, and the heat will be forgotten when we're paying inflated fuel prices.

 

[Mcr Warrior]

I'm looking forward to a few warmer days, but then again it's going to be nowhere near as bad as in the south.

With any luck, you might just be able to turn the heating off in Elginshire/Morayshire for the next few days!

 

[geoffk]

... to save water, we stopped using a garden hose-pipe, and instead emptied all of the washing-up water around our plum tree and expected it to survive, ... and in the autumn were rewarded by a bumper crop of plums!

Some of us even remember 1959, a summer which lasted until October. We were even allowed to take our jackets off in class, a rare event which required the headmaster's permission. I have though postponed my planned three days in Cornwall with a Rover ticket, which was to have been next week.

 

[philosopher]

We're only getting up to 21 Degrees in N I. When I was young sunny days in June, July or August were called a summer, and were enjoyed. Now it's 'The end is nigh!'

It'll not be long until the season changes, and the heat will be forgotten when we're paying inflated fuel prices.

This summer does seem the complete opposite from last year. Last year it was great in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Northern England but crap in the south, particularly the southeast of England. This year the summer has been great in the south of England, barring this heatwave but crap in the North.

 

[Peter0124]

Is this accurate?

Google search shows Manchester could peak at 37 degrees, 3pm on Tuesday!

 

[Mcr Warrior]

We'll find out in a few days time, but yes, the forecast is for it to be a tad warm in Manchester-shire on Tuesday, almost certainly mid to high 30s (in Celsius) or mid 90s (in Fahrenheit).

 

[nlogax]

Is this accurate?

I would imagine so. Weather Underground suggests similar and it's very reliable.

 

[12C]

A lot of it is just the 24-hours news cycle and the internet / social media - they have to make a drama out of everything!

Agreed, I remember the short but quite extreme heatwave in 2019, with some parts of the UK in the mid to high 30s (with Cambridge breaking the record at nearly 39 degrees). It was talked about on the news with obvious warnings for the elderly etc but none of this apocalyptic fear mongering we’re seeing now. Following events over the last 2 years the media have really latched onto the concept of trying to terrify the population to sell news.

 

[brad465]

Agreed, I remember the short but quite extreme heatwave in 2019, with some parts of the UK in the mid to high 30s (with Cambridge breaking the record at nearly 39 degrees). It was talked about on the news with obvious warnings for the elderly etc but none of this apocalyptic fear mongering we’re seeing now. Following events over the last 2 years the media have really latched onto the concept of trying to terrify the population to sell news.

I've said this before about covid, the way to combat this is demand more widespread critical thinking education, and change our economic model to not be reliant on consumerism (critical thinking increases resistance to marketing tricks, thus a consumerism-driven economy would collapse).

 

[najaB]

Agreed, I remember the short but quite extreme heatwave in 2019, with some parts of the UK in the mid to high 30s (with Cambridge breaking the record at nearly 39 degrees). It was talked about on the news with obvious warnings for the elderly etc but none of this apocalyptic fear mongering we’re seeing now.

And you provided your own refutation of your point - the heatwave in 2019 was short. UK temperatures have been above average pretty much all year:

As we reach the half-way point of 2022, June continued the run of each month so far this year reporting above-average temperatures, as warm and dry conditions reigned for much of the month.

Archived blog posts

Can't find the blog post you're looking for? Some of our older posts have been archived and were not moved across to the Met Office website when we moved the blog.

blog.metoffice.gov.uk

 

[adc82140]

It's likely to hit 37 or 38 here on Tuesday, followed by just 21 on Wednesday (much better). But I'm surprised we're not being rewarded with spectacular thunderstorms to bring on the change.

 

[12C]

And you provided your own refutation of your point - the heatwave in 2019 was short. UK temperatures have been above average pretty much all year:

I’m surprised to read that as so far this year (in the North West at least) the weather seems to have been quite unremarkable, it certainly feels to have been quite a poor summer until now.

This particular heatwave in question I would describe as rather abrupt and short, 2 to 3 days maximum before temperatures return to average on Wednesday.

 

[ChrisC]

And the peak temperatures were some 5 to 6 degrees cooler than those forecast for next week.

5 to 6 degrees hotter than the peak in 1976 is a big increase. Another difference in 1976 was how long the heatwave lasted. It might not have been quite so hot as they are forecasting for next week but there were 16 consecutive days when the temperature in many parts of the country was around 32 degrees.

 

[Domh245]

It's likely to hit 37 or 38 here on Tuesday, followed by just 21 on Wednesday (much better). But I'm surprised we're not being rewarded with spectacular thunderstorms to bring on the change.

Looks like the North(/east) will get the thunderstorms, with Scotland and Ireland also getting deluged! From ventusky:



(Red Hatching indicates a thunderstorm)

Images show a band of rain sweeping west to east across the british isles from before 4 AM until ~1PM on the 20th with most rainfall landing over Ireland and then more or less everywhere north of the midlands seeing rain at some point with thunderstorms between Hull and Newcastle around 10AM. Small band of rain affecting the south coast as well

 

[Scotrail314209]

Looks like the North(/east) will get the thunderstorms, with Scotland and Ireland also getting deluged! From ventusky:

View attachment 117762View attachment 117763View attachment 117764View attachment 117765

(Red Hatching indicates a thunderstorm)

Normal service resuming in Scotland then?

 

[Pete_uk]

It was 27c here this afternoon.

It will be 27c overnight Monday into Tuesday morning.

Then some thunder hopefully and a 15 degree drop in temperature

 

[davehsug]

Is this accurate?

I'm afraid so, and quite possibly higher. Unusually, the highest temperatures may well be in Northern England, especially East of the Pennines. But vitually anywhere inland could see temperatures above 37C. The all-time record 38.7C will likely be broken on Monday, then again on Tuesday. 40C, which until recently most meteorologists thought wasn't under threat until after 2050, is 50-50, some short-term, high resolution models, which should be more accurate, are predicting as much as 42C. Truly frightening.

 

[najaB]

The all-time record 38.7C will likely be broken on Monday, then again on Tuesday. 40C, which until recently most meteorologists thought wasn't under threat until after 2050, is 50-50, some short-term, high resolution models, which should be more accurate, are predicting as much as 42C. Truly frightening.

The map viewer at TheWeatherOutlook.com is showing 41°C for the parts of the UK on Tuesday afternoon:



And that's open air temperature - add at least another 2-3° for urban environments.

 

[Iskra]

Had a small amount of unexpected rain overnight in Sheffield, should help the garden a bit through the next few days

 

[philosopher]

The map viewer at TheWeatherOutlook.com is showing 41°C for the parts of the UK on Tuesday afternoon:

View attachment 117769

And that's open air temperature - add at least another 2-3° for urban environments.

The highest temperatures from that map are definitely a lot further north than would be expected. Usually the highest temperatures in recent heatwaves have been in London and the Southeast rather Lincolnshire and Yorkshire.