GWR Cascade Delayed!

[Envoy]

ITV West (Bristol) are reporting today that the cascade of trains to the west to combat overcrowding is being delayed by up to 2 years. Presumably, they are referring to the 165's & 166's moving west which would allow the 158's to move to Devon & Cornwall.

Of course, this hardly news to those who read these forums and are up with events concerning the slow progress being made to electrify the Great Western.

Would I be right in thinking that the most vital work that needs to be done to release the 165's / 166's is getting the wires as far as Oxford? I understand that priority has been given to getting the Hybrid Hitachi's built first. That being so, would it not be beneficial to actually put them to work on the London > Oxford > Worcester > Hereford route first as this would release the most turbostars?

The situation on services such as Cardiff > Bristol > Bath > Soton > Portsmouth is now quite desperate regarding overcrowding. Getting the 165's & 166's released to form longer trains on the routes through Bristol musty surely be a top priority?

http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2015-11-11/plans-to-ease-overcrowding-on-trains-to-go-on-hold/

Plans to ease overcrowding on the region's trains will be put on hold for up to two years, ITV News can reveal. It's after delays to the electrification of the Great Western line, with the budget tripled to £2.8 billion.

It means plans to run more carriages from next Spring will be delayed.Other projects look set to be put back by the cost overrun.

A formal announcement is expected in the next few weeks by Network Rail who are reviewing the project.

 

[47802]

Things are desperate on many lines throughout the country and imagine the priority needs to be to release 27 HST's to Scotrail, and also to complete a route that will allow the electric only IEP's to run.

Remember also that potentially any IEP's sat about doing nothing will still cost money.

Remember also the IEP Bi-Modes have a limited range on Diesel so the further they can get on Electric to allow them to work within their Diesel range the better.

 

[jimm]

ITV West (Bristol) are reporting today that the cascade of trains to the west to combat overcrowding is being delayed by up to 2 years. Presumably, they are referring to the 165's & 166's moving west which would allow the 158's to move to Devon & Cornwall.

Of course, this hardly news to those who read these forums and are up with events concerning the slow progress being made to electrify the Great Western.

Would I be right in thinking that the most vital work that needs to be done to release the 165's / 166's is getting the wires as far as Oxford? I understand that priority has been given to getting the Hybrid Hitachi's built first. That being so, would it not be beneficial to actually put them to work on the London > Oxford > Worcester > Hereford route first as this would release the most turbostars?

The situation on services such as Cardiff > Bristol > Bath > Soton > Portsmouth is now quite desperate regarding overcrowding. Getting the 165's & 166's released to form longer trains on the routes through Bristol musty surely be a top priority?

http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2015-11-11/plans-to-ease-overcrowding-on-trains-to-go-on-hold/

QUOTE:"Plans to ease overcrowding on the region's trains will be put on hold for up to two years, ITV News can reveal. It's after delays to the electrification of the Great Western line, with the budget tripled to £2.8 billion.

It means plans to run more carriages from next Spring will be delayed.Other projects look set to be put back by the cost overrun.

A formal announcement is expected in the next few weeks by Network Rail who are reviewing the project.

Don't know where they got next spring from, as bar the odd Turbo released to Bristol for training purposes once some inner suburban services in London go electric, the first big step in the cascade wouldn't have been until December 2016, even if everything was going to plan with electrification and related work like Oxford resignalling.

The 165s and 166s are (Thames) Turbos, not Turbostars, and on weekdays there are precious few of them in use on the Cotswold Line anyway, with HSTs and 180s operating the bulk of the services, so using IEPs here would make next to no difference on the requirement for Turbos in their current area of operation.

A number of Turbos will be released from main line stoppers anyway once wiring gets to Reading but wiring to Oxford - and Newbury - is key to making the Turbo cascade work properly. Cutting short the Oxford semi-fasts at Didcot and providing an interim Turbo shuttle for the last few miles might look a good idea on paper but wouldn't go down well with passengers.

I believe GWR has been making this point behind closed doors to Sir Peter Hendy and others involved in the various reviews but whether the message has got through remains to be seen if all the suggestions of wiring to Swindon being made top priority are accurate.

 

[northwichcat]

Things are desperate on many lines throughout the country and imagine the priority needs to be to release 27 HST's to Scotrail, and also to complete a route that will allow the electric only IEP's to run.

Well Northern bidders could have proposed using 150/1s and 153s freed up by FGW (as a result of 16xs going west) as well as 156s, 158s and 170s freed up by Scotrail (as a result of getting the HSTs) so a delay to releasing either could cause problems but we should know more when the winning Northern bid is announced.

 

[47802]

Well Northern bidders could have proposed using 150/1s and 153s freed up by FGW (as a result of 16xs going west) as well as 156s, 158s and 170s freed up by Scotrail (as a result of getting the HSTs) so a delay to releasing either could cause problems but we should know more when the winning Northern bid is announced.

Well indeed Northern could be stuffed either way.

 

[CP165]

Cutting short the Oxford semi-fasts at Didcot and providing an interim Turbo shuttle for the last few miles might look a good idea on paper but wouldn't go down well with passengers.

I believe GWR has been making this point behind closed doors to Sir Peter Hendy and others involved in the various reviews but whether the message has got through remains to be seen if all the suggestions of wiring to Swindon being made top priority are accurate.

It wouldn't be that bad, would it? It would only be a temporary measure after all. If they timed trains for a slick cross platform interchange (where possible) I think it would be pretty painless.

What's more, I suppose they could run a handful of direct peak time services to soften the blow. Might release less units but it's better than nothing.

 

[387star]

I heard pompey to cardiff will not be getting turbos anyway due to clearance not to mention unsuitability for that route and will either keep 158s or hell let's have the 442s with a loco put on at southampton

But first it was we were getting turbos then not then yes then no so take with a pinch of salt

 

[northwichcat]

I heard pompey to cardiff will not be getting turbos anyway due to clearance not to mention unsuitability for that route and will either keep 158s or hell let's have the 442s with a loco put on at southampton

But first it was we were getting turbos then not then yes then no so take with a pinch of salt

The route doesn't have the necessary clearance to use 16xs so it is always dependant on whether Network Rail will undertake that work or not and Network Rail are constantly changing their list of projects and deadlines.

 

[387star]

I understand the class 158s were due a major refurbishment next year so that might be delayed too

 

[swt_passenger]

I heard pompey to cardiff will not be getting turbos anyway due to clearance not to mention unsuitability for that route...

People in and out of the railway have been claiming that ever since it first appeared in an RUS about 7 or 8 years ago. I think you are right to treat it with a pinch of salt.

Unless of course the Hendy review reckons the gauge clearance project for Turbos in the CP5 plan is unaffordable, though it seems to me it would only require a relatively small amount of work...

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Don't know where they got next spring from, as bar the odd Turbo released to Bristol for training purposes once some inner suburban services in London go electric, the first big step in the cascade wouldn't have been until December 2016, even if everything was going to plan with electrification and related work like Oxford resignalling.

Yes, I dot think the authors of these stories have been checking with the direct award stakeholders brief, where it is all described in a fair amount of detail. In this case it refers to the Bristol area strengthening as starting in the second half of 2016, and completing by May 2017.

Taking another random branch line, EMUs on Reading to Basingstoke is shown as December 2018, yet it is also one of their potential issues...

 

[northwichcat]

People in and out of the railway have been claiming that ever since it first appeared in an RUS about 7 or 8 years ago. I think you are right to treat it with a pinch of salt.

Unless of course the Hendy review reckons the gauge clearance project for Turbos in the CP5 plan is unaffordable, though it seems to me it would only require a relatively small amount of work...

Of course appearing as a recommendation in a RUS doesn't mean it's going to happen. The Yorkshire & Humber RUS from a bit back recommended adding EMUs on to the 323 replacement order for the North West, so that Yorkshire also had additional EMUs but as the 323s stayed put (instead of going to LM) that never happened so the add on couldn't happen.

I think the Direct Award for the Great Western franchise does say about refurbished 166s (with 2+2 seating) attached to 165s (retaining 3+2 seating) running Cardiff-Portsmouth services, so it does sound like 16xs on Cardiff-Portsmouth is part of the latest plan.

 

[swt_passenger]

Of course appearing as a recommendation in a RUS doesn't mean it's going to happen.

Agreed, but writing in an RUS that such and such will be operated 'following gauge clearance' makes it rather silly for people to then say that the same stock will never be able to operate because it isn't gauge cleared...

 

[Henbury Loop]

I was told by GWR that the Thames Turbos would be running the Severn Beach line too.

 

[Envoy]

If the 165's / 166's were to be used as 5 car sets on the Portsmouth > Cardiff run, would it not be a problem being as they were not able to have a through corridor connection?

If gauging issues would result in costly modifications on the above route & the 165's/ 166's were not used, where could else could they go?

Many thanks to all who have responded thus far.

 

[swt_passenger]

If the 165's / 166's were to be used as 5 car sets on the Portsmouth > Cardiff run, would it not be a problem being as they were not able to have a through corridor connection?

It shouldn't be a significant problem, don't they already get used like that on their existing routes on some services?

 

[Clarence Yard]

The Spring 2016 date was for a Pad-Hayes EMU service with 387 sets to relieve pressure on the GW Turbos and start a small cascade to Bristol to enable training to commence as well as providing a float for the mods required to enable them to work in the west.

The main transfer was due to start in Autumn 2016 with the inners going first. Getting to at least Didcot with the inners is key as that releases a large chunk of units. The cycle with these is on slow Reading and Oxfords so just getting to Reading doesn't do much good.

Likewise on the main line, just getting to Swindon is a chocolate fire guard job as the IEP sets need to get wires nearer Bristol for the fuel range not to be a problem. As the sets were due to drop into what is effectively the current timetable, 5 car operation on the GW mainline or operation of the electric sets on existing services just won't work. That has already been looked at.

To say the whole cascade programme is in danger of being in total chaos is an understatement. Dates for electrifications, various clearance works, depot and siding construction and related station and layout changes have been going backwards, some severely so. The DfT have engaged Chris Green to look into the rolling stock implications of all the delays. FGW are heavily involved in trying to find a way through it all.

The public will shortly be finding out what the DfT revised completion dates for all aspects of the works will be. But the fallout is going to be massive. An expensive re-negotiation of the Agility contract, an expensive re-negotiation of the GW DA contract, potentially expensive delays to vehicle cascades in other TOCs and delays to service enhancements to politically sensitive areas of GW. If these all occur, someone or some organisation (NR) is going to get binned.

 

[PHILIPE]

Pleased to learn that Network Rail have engaged Chris Green, an experienced railwayman. rather than expensive consultants who, in all probability, know little about Railways.

 

[cactustwirly]

Don't expect much in spring in terms of cascaded units, as the Padd-Hayes EMU and shortened Greenford branch will probably only release 1 2 car 165.

Expect the vast majority of cascading to happen after introduction of the 365s & 387s (2017). This is what I had expected even before this announcement

 

[swt_passenger]

Don't expect much in spring in terms of cascaded units, as the Padd-Hayes EMU and shortened Greenford branch will probably only release 1 2 car 165.

Expect the vast majority of cascading to happen after introduction of the 365s & 387s. This is what I had expected even before this announcement

The 387 delivery programme shown in the franchise agreement (extract below) allows for nothing else but a token introduction. This whole thing about the problem of DMU cascades toward the Bristol area being badly delayed must be based on ignorance of the published plans...

29 Class 387 units (116 vehicles) are delivered in four distinct phases:
- 6 units by end of March 2016;
- 4 units by end of April 2016;
- 8 units by end of February 2017; and
- 11 units by end of March 2017
Additional 8 Class 387 units: Delivery is based on final acceptance, which is at a rate of 2 units every two weeks starting in the second week of January 2017.

There are no similarly tabled dates given for the 365s, but they are not on lease with GW until Jan 2017.

 

[adrock1976]

As the Class 165s and 166s were referred to as "Thames Turbos" when built, are there any plans from the high heid yins to rebrand them as 'Severn Turbos" when they eventually move west to Bristol?

 

[387star]

deleted

 

[Blindtraveler]

I hope a meeting room is being booked somewhere for a showdown about Scotrails HSTs? This could be major.

 

[387star]

It shouldn't be a significant problem, don't they already get used like that on their existing routes on some services?

Think the idea is for the core of the train to be the three car 166 with the trolley 2 and 2 seating and the tagged on 2 car 165 to be similar to london midlands tagged on 153s with higher density seating but probably no trolley although the guard may have to be in that part if at the rear of the train meaning the front part might as well be DOO

Both classes of turbo said to be getting a chiltern style air-con treatment

 

[MML]

Re the proposed transfer of 27 x GWR HST to Scotrail. Why are they being shortened to 4 and 5 carriages ? Surely to avoid current and future capacity shortages, at least 6 carriages would be more preferable. Seems a very expensive way to operate a 4 carriage train with an HST power car at each end. Is there a reason ? Platform length restrictions perhaps ?

 

[Clarence Yard]

The potential delays to the Turbo cascade are real, not based on ignorance of the published plans. There is a very real danger that the vast majority of the 58 4 car EMU sets could have naff all work to do for, at best, several months.

There will not be enough room to store them on GW in 2017 either! So getting a robust date for electrification to Didcot and Newbury is key to unlocking their use and sending serious numbers of Turbos west.

 

[Emblematic]

Re the proposed transfer of 27 x GWR HST to Scotrail. Why are they being shortened to 4 and 5 carriages ? Surely to avoid current and future capacity shortages, at least 6 carriages would be more preferable. Seems a very expensive way to operate a 4 carriage train with an HST power car at each end. Is there a reason ? Platform length restrictions perhaps ?

Look at it the other way - if the predicted service pattern loadings can be met by 4 and 5 carriage sets, why spend more on longer trains? Every carriage will need an expensive refurbishment to meet PRM-TRI, have CET tanks fitted etc. Short-form HST should have performance comparable to modern stock, which you start to lose as you lengthen the set.
Platform lengths also come into it - Glasgow Queen Street in particular will struggle with longer trains, if six carriages were needed then you would have to lose the power cars, go instead for an AT300-style unit. That's the likely longer-term plan once the HSTs have served their term.

 

[physics34]

Pleased to learn that Network Rail have engaged Chris Green, an experienced railwayman. rather than expensive consultants who, in all probability, know little about Railways.

good news

 

[irish_rail]

I hope a meeting room is being booked somewhere for a showdown about Scotrails HSTs? This could be major.

Oh yes, I'm sure they will be gutted that there modern DMU trains will have to soldier on for another year or two.....:roll:

Still cannot understand why the Scottish government is prepared to take on old 1970s rolling stock anyway. And take it from someone who drives them day in day out, they are falling to pieces. The scots are in for a shock when they eventually do arrive!

 

[3141]

As the Class 165s and 166s were referred to as "Thames Turbos" when built, are there any plans from the high heid yins to rebrand them as 'Severn Turbos" when they eventually move west to Bristol?

When 165s and 166s were introduced starting with Chiltern Turbos in 1991, "turbo" was an in-word widely used to suggest something was faster or better in some other way than existing trains, washing machines, alarm clocks or whatever. It no longer has those connotations so it would probably be pointless to start calling them Severn Turbos, especially if people in that area commented sarcastically on how long they'd taken to get there.

 

[ainsworth74]

Still cannot understand why the Scottish government is prepared to take on old 1970s rolling stock anyway. And take it from someone who drives them day in day out, they are falling to pieces. The scots are in for a shock when they eventually do arrive!

Well that's why they're now keeping some 170s as Transport Scotland realised that if they didn't then their entire diesel fleet would have been built under BR (68s excepted but the coaches they haul are also BR era so for a passenger makes no difference)!

I think the HSTs for ScotRail is going to be very interesting...