General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[TheKnightWho]

Just had a thought about why the Sun are backing the SNP in Scotland but the Tories in England:

It not only damages Labour support in England by threatening the idea of an SNP victory in Scotland, but also means that it's more likely that the Tories will be the single biggest party overall.

The right-wing press have been trumpeting the idea for weeks now that the single biggest party has to win the election, even though that isn't how our democracy works. There's a very real likelihood that the Tories will claim victory even if Labour can form a majority coalition, and they'll do it on the grounds of being the largest party - saying that a smaller party has no legitimacy to rule. This is quite simply false, but the groundwork for this lie has been laid for a while now.

I think we've got a very real possibility of a coup in Downing Street by the Tories, and it's going to be extremely messy. Constitutional crisis here we come.

 

[table38]

There's a very real likelihood that the Tories will claim victory even if Labour can form a majority coalition, and they'll do it on the grounds of being the largest party - saying that a smaller party has no legitimacy to rule. This is quite simply false, but the groundwork for this lie has been laid for a while now.

I think we've got a very real possibility of a coup in Downing Street by the Tories, and it's going to be extremely messy. Constitutional crisis here we come.

Although in reality, from the Cabinet Office Manual:

Parliaments with no overall majority in the House of Commons

2.12 Where an election does not result in an overall majority for a single party, the incumbent government remains in office unless and until the Prime Minister tenders his or her resignation and the Government’s resignation to the Sovereign. An incumbent government is entitled to wait until the new Parliament has met to see if it can command the confidence of the House of Commons, but is expected to resign if it becomes clear that it is unlikely to be able to command that confidence and there is a clear alternative.

2.13 Where a range of different administrations could potentially be formed, political parties may wish to hold discussions to establish who is best able to command the confidence of the House of Commons and should form the next government. The Sovereign would not expect to become involved in any negotiations, although there are responsibilities on those involved in the process to keep the Palace informed. This could be done by political parties or the Cabinet Secretary. The Principal Private Secretary to the Prime Minister may also have a role, for example, in communicating with the Palace.

2.14 If the leaders of the political parties involved in any negotiations seek the support of the Civil Service, this support may only be organised by the Cabinet Secretary with the authorisation of the Prime Minister. If the Prime Minister authorises any support it would be focused and provided on an equal basis to all the parties involved, including the party that was currently in government. The Civil Service would continue to advise the incumbent government in the usual way.

2.15 Following the election in May 2010, the Prime Minister authorised the Civil Service to provide such support to negotiations between political parties.

2.16 As long as there is significant doubt following an election over the Government’s ability to command the confidence of the House of Commons, certain restrictions on government activity apply; see paragraphs 2.27–2.34.

2.17 The nature of the government formed will be dependent on discussions between political parties and any resulting agreement. Where there is no overall majority, there are essentially three broad types of government that could be formed:

• single-party, minority government, where the party may (although not necessarily) be supported by a series of ad hoc agreements based on common interests;
• formal inter-party agreement, for example the Liberal–Labour pact from 1977 to 1978; or
• formal coalition government, which generally consists of ministers from more than one political party, and typically commands a majority in the House of Commons

 

[ainsworth74]

Although in reality, from the Cabinet Office Manual:

Nono it's a coup or nothing! Long live El Presidente Cameron! :roll:

 

[Manchester77]

Well even the cabinet manual is clear that the grouping which can command the confidence of the house has the right to form a government, that doesn't mean it's the largest party so I don't see where this Tory and SLab line of the largest party MUST form a government has come from

 

[ainsworth74]

And Dimbleby has gone live on BBC One from the election bunker!

 

[table38]

Nono it's a coup or nothing! Long live El Presidente Cameron! :roll:

Really the forum staff should have co-ordinated the Far North Trip and North Wales Extravaganza better, so that we could all escape from the next week of horse-trading, speculation, claim and counter-claim, denials, backroom deals, endless arguments over rules and precedent, recriminations...

 

[ainsworth74]

Sorry! We'll try harder five years from now

 

[Mojo]

BBC exit poll has some very surprising results:

Con 316
Lab 239
SNP 58
Lib 10
Plaid 4
Green 2
Ukip 2
Other 19 (NI + Galloway)


I'm hoping it's not another repeat of the 1992 poll

 

[ainsworth74]

I'm stunned if that proves to be accurate! Not surprised about the Lib Dems but Labour losing so much ground and the Conservatives gaining some is not what I was expecting. A Labour/SNP coalition would not even get as many seats as the Conservatives by themselves...

 

[table38]

So if true, given bias in the constutuencies towards Labour, that must give the Tories a massive lead in the total vote? Certainly not the 33% vs 33% the polls were predicting.

 

[DarloRich]

SNP projected to take all but one seat in Scotland!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Big damage to Labour vote in Scotland which explains the reduction in seats while the Lib Dems have been all but wiped out
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So if true, given bias in the constutuencies towards Labour, that must give the Tories a massive lead in the total vote? Certainly not the 33% vs 33% the polls were predicting.

exactly - lots of people haven't been telling the truth to pollsters. The Conservatives could almost go it alone if these numbers are right

 

[Kite159]

Blimey, if that exit poll is to be believed.

Only 10 seats short of an overall majority

 

[ainsworth74]

The RailUK Polling Station is closed and the results have been announced above! Gives us something else to talk about

 

[Mojo]

The language from the media side of the discussion tonight seems to be a lot more cagey with regards to the exit polls this time, compared to how they have previously spoken about it. I wonder if that's because it's so different from the previous polls, or because of how tight it is?

 

[table38]

The RailUK Polling Station is closed and the results have been announced above! Gives us something else to talk about

Hmm, I know traditionally we're allowed to talk about how people actually voted once the polls close at 10pm, but at my polling station, it said as long as you were inside the building or in the queue by 10pm, you could still vote. What if someone saw the RailUK poll before they voted!

I deem you in breach of the Representation of the People Act 1918 and fine you the cost of a first-class upgrade on ATW between Chester and Bangor.

 

[me123]

I'm very cautiously optimistic about this poll. Previous exit polls have proven to be remarkably accurate - 2010's exit poll was considered to be wrong when it predicted only 59 seats for the LDs (down from 62), but proved to be quite accurate (they got 57 seats).58 seats for the SNP would see Scotland being almost entirely SNP (aside one constituency, probably Orkney & Shetland), and I'd quite cautiously say that 50 seats continues to look realistic for us.

 

[DarloRich]

The yougov exit poll is much closer numbers wise based on 6000 people (BBC poll was 22000 people)

Both main parties still around 33/34% with seats as follows:

Con 284,
Lab 263,
LD 31,
SNP 48

 

[Bevan Price]

BBC exit poll has some very surprising results:

Con 316
Lab 239
SNP 58
Lib 10
Plaid 4
Green 2
Ukip 2
Other 19 (NI + Galloway)


I'm hoping it's not another repeat of the 1992 poll

If it is anywhere near correct, it is about what I had expected. Vote SNP, get Cameron, and LibDem with no more than about 10 seats

 

[ainsworth74]

The yougov exit poll is much closer numbers wise based on 6000 people (BBC poll was 22000 people)

Both main parties still around 33/34% with seats as follows:

Con 284,
Lab 263,
LD 31,
SNP 48

That's more like what I was expecting! The electoral maths on that result is also a lot more interesting...

I deem you in breach of the Representation of the People Act 1918 and fine you the cost of a first-class upgrade on ATW between Chester and Bangor.

We'll fight you all the way to the Supreme Court if we have to

 

[me123]

BBC Scotland already rubbishing the exit poll, as they did last time around. I agree it looks unlikely and would interpret it with caution, but I'd also be cautious in ignoring it.

The forum results are not particularly surprising, a generally left wing trend as I would have predicted. If that was to be representative of the country as a whole there'd be quite a comfortable Labour majority.

 

[Class172]

I will admit, with this being my first visit to this thread, I was surprised at the size of the left-leaning proportion of voters on the forum: I can understand the logic, but still I didn't expect such a large shift.

The BBC exit polls did shock me and if they are to hold accurate then I'll be pleased. I can only assume that the Conservatives have taken many of the Lib Dem's seats in England.

 

[DarloRich]

The BBC exit polls did shock me and if they are to hold accurate then I'll be pleased. I can only assume that the Conservatives have taken many of the Lib Dem's seats in England.

I wont be pleased!

It looks, if the BBC figures are correct, that Lib Dem marginals have gone (mostly) to the Tories while SNP have taken the Scottish seats from Labour.

 

[table38]

Dozens of ballot papers in Darlington miss off local Ukip candidate but election goes ahead anyway

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/dozens-of-ballot-papers-in-darlington-miss-off-local-ukip-candidate-but-election-goes-ahead-anyway-10232476.html

Tsk, Darlington of all places. I wonder if those ballot papers were printed in Milton Keynes?

 

[DarloRich]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/dozens-of-ballot-papers-in-darlington-miss-off-local-ukip-candidate-but-election-goes-ahead-anyway-10232476.html

Tsk, Darlington of all places. I wonder if those ballot papers were printed in Milton Keynes?

i saw that this evening. They could hardly stop the election once it had started. I guess UKIP can sue if they feel they have been disadvantaged.

If i had printed them there would have been but one candidate

Sunderland South & Houghton first to declare which is nice as it is where most of my family live. 56% turn out. 12,000 majority for Labour which is about 2000 up on last time.

UKIP vote up a great deal and pushes them into second place and the Lib Dems may have lost their deposit

 

[me123]

Sunderland South as expected first back, as expected Labour safely win.

Labour extend their lead, but UKIP increase their share by 18.8% and the swing is towards UKIP (7%). Good results for Greens too (1095 votes), and Lib Dems decimated down with just 791 seats.

 

[richw]

Keep a look-out for the result in Camborne, unique in this election for two reasons: the only four-way marginal and the only one to have been represented in parliament by three different parties over the last three elections (Labour 2001, LibDem 2005, Conservative 2010, majority 66). Admittedly the boundaries did change at the last election, but even so. George 'Useless' Eustice the incumbent, associations with Cameron going back a long way, from a local family probably accounting for a few thousand votes in this ultra-parochial part of the world. Even my wife, who gave up drinking years ago, would crack open the champagne if he lost, even to the dreaded UKIP.

I live in this constituency, when I picked my daughter up from her primary school today, all but 1 of the mothers in the playground there were saying they'd voted labour.
I took an issue to Eustice last year, whilst he got results I really didn't like him as a person when I met with him.

 

[90sWereBetter]

Rumours on the BBC that Ed Balls may have lost his seat. Worrying times indeed.

 

[table38]

Rumours on the BBC that Ed Balls may have lost his seat. Worrying times indeed.

Balls licked? Surely not

 

[ainsworth74]

Any word on turnout?

 

[me123]

Re; the exit poll...

Alastair Campbell has promised to eat his kilt if it's right, and Paddy Ashdown has promised to eat his hat. If it's right, this TV broadcast could get very interesting indeed!
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Any word on turnout?

No formal results, but suggested about 70% in Scotland, although it seems to be mostly anecdotal in nature.