General Election 2015 - Thoughts/Predictions/Results

[radamfi]

Britain has a certain amount of importance on the world stage primarily because it has a lot of people living in it. It may not have as high a GDP per capita as many other northern European countries, but the total GDP is the per capita GDP multiplied by the population. Norway, for example, is way richer than the UK but could never be as important as the UK, simply because few people live there. So being a 'world player' is not really an achievement at all. It happens automatically by being a developed western country with a high population.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Good weather is predicted for the Yorkshire & Humberside and East Midlands regions. This should help increase voter turnout. Just watched Charlie Brooker's Election Swipe on BBC2, it's well worth a watch on iPlayer before voting (or not) tomorrow.

I know who I'm voting for, but it makes little difference as the polls say Labour are already leading by 17% here. I think votes are sometimes wasted in safe seats or if you like a party unlikely to win in a constituency. FPTP will always lead back to 2 party politics eventually.

What do Scottish voters think of the STV used in Holyrood, is it better or worse?

 

[TheKnightWho]

Honestly I think this sums up much of the campaign.

http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/miliband-nasty-bad-man-2015050698064

 

[Oswyntail]

..... On the other hand, Cameron wore the Bullingdon outfit... because he was in the Bullingdon Club, a posh boys' drinking society known for riotous vandalism, misogyny and deplorable behaviour all paid for by daddy's credit card.

At my college there was a drinking club called the "Society of Whales", known for loud boorish behaviour and copious vomit, misogyny and deplorable behaviour (when they weren't lying in a pool under the table) and who didn't clean up after themselves. Often as not this was paid for by begging a fiver from a friend. Same university, different people. But they have all grown up now and are generally model professionals. Probably like the Bullingdon club members. So what this boils down to is that the Bullingdons are "posh" (whatever that means) - good old fashioned social jealousy, which is no way to run a country - or choose a Government.

 

[TheKnightWho]

At my college there was a drinking club called the "Society of Whales", known for loud boorish behaviour and copious vomit, misogyny and deplorable behaviour (when they weren't lying in a pool under the table) and who didn't clean up after themselves. Often as not this was paid for by begging a fiver from a friend. Same university, different people. But they have all grown up now and are generally model professionals. Probably like the Bullingdon club members. So what this boils down to is that the Bullingdons are "posh" (whatever that means) - good old fashioned social jealousy, which is no way to run a country - or choose a Government.

Social jealousy? People don't attack the posh because they're jealous, but because they wield power.

 

[Manchester77]

What do Scottish voters think of the STV used in Holyrood, is it better or worse?

They only use STV for local Councils they use AMS for Holryrood.

 

[WelshBluebird]

I know who I'm voting for, but it makes little difference as the polls say Labour are already leading by 17% here. I think votes are sometimes wasted in safe seats or if you like a party unlikely to win in a constituency. FPTP will always lead back to 2 party politics eventually.

I know mine will be wasted but I am still voting. Bath is essentially a Tory v Lib Dem battle. Currently Lib Dem by a fairly large majority but that will be reduced for obvious reasons (especially as there are a large number of students here), probably enough for the Tories to challenge for it. But after the last 5 years there is no chance I am voting for either of those two. I just hope that enough people will vote for what they want rather than tactically, so at least the percentage of the vote will recognise that a growing number of people want something other than those two.

 

[DarloRich]

Well it will all be over soon

 

[ainsworth74]

Well it will all be over soon

Will it though? How long will it take to hammer out some sort of coalition or understanding!?

 

[DarloRich]

Will it though? How long will it take to hammer out some sort of coalition or understanding!?

only 3 or 4 years - but we dont get to vote on that do we?

 

[St Rollox]

Well it will all be over soon

The UK???

Oh sorry, you meant the election.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

Well it will all be over soon

Don't worry. If anyone terribly misses it and starts to get withdrawal symptons... there'll be another one within 5 years at the latest

 

[me123]

What do Scottish voters think of the STV used in Holyrood, is it better or worse?

As said before, we use AMS (Additional Members System). In this system, we elect one MSP per constituency for 73 constituencies (broadly based originally on the Westminster constituencies, although it's changed a bit since 1997) and an additional number of MSPs for our region (another 56 for 8 regions).

It does work quite nicely as a "best of both worlds" scenario. We have a single named MSP who would be expected to represent their constituents as an MP would do. Furthermore, the additional MSPs provide further points of contact into the system, allow you to contact a local MSP from any party you wish to, or according to their interest in parliament/government. It also gives us a decent attempt at PR (although it's not perfect - I'd advocate STV for the regional lists). Also, for Scotland, it allows us to increase the number of representatives we have - as a small country, we benefit from having more politicians per capita.

I doubt it would work for Westminster in the same way it works for us, though. The drive there is towards fewer MPs, and if implemented in the same way the AMS would probably see the number of MPs double which would be largely resisted I think by many people in England. I think there's already enough big personalities in Westminster to keep them going!

STV for the councils works well IMO, and I particularly like being able to rank preferences for multiple candidates. But there is one key issue with it. By-elections are rubbish.

In my ward in 2007, we elected 2 Labour, 1 SNP, 1 independent. All good and well and democratic. The SNP candidate resigned (he was surprisingly elected as an MSP in 2009), and the by election was fought for one seat. In spite of a swing towards the SNP, Labour got the seat, leaving us with 3 Labours and the independent.

This seems fundamentally wrong to me. I agree that it's difficult to argue that the winning candidate should not take their seat. But I think the swing should have been recognised in the system. In spite of losing support, Labour gained a councillor (and, IIRC, a majority in the council chamber!). I think what needs to happen in these circumstances is either
1) Run the entire election again, which is unacceptable because it means that one councillor resigning leads to another three losing their job, which could be used as a political tactic quite easily by some.
2) Account for existing seats in the by-election without making incumbents contest their seats again. For example, in this case, the Labour candidate came first and would have been elected. However, since Labour already hold two seats, the process should continue until Labour either win a third seat or another candidate wins the seat first. This would be a fairer way to do it IMHO, and whilst it may generate some bizarre results (in this case, electing the candidate in second place), it would allow a proportional system to be maintained and recognise shifts in public opinion much better than the current system.

(And yes, I'd say the same regardless of the parties involved!).
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Don't worry. If anyone terribly misses it and starts to get withdrawal symptons... there'll be another one within 5 years at the latest

Not to mention councils, EU elections, probably an EU referendum, and if you're in Scotland, Wales or NI, our own elections to the devolved assemblies.

Plenty to keep us political geeks interested
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[youtube]s7tWHJfhiyo[/youtube]

This is an interesting video about the awfulness of FPTP. Sadly, we're seeing this quite markedly in this election, particularly up here in Scotland. (Vote Labour or else, etc etc etc).

 

[TheKnightWho]

I love CGPGrey! Definitely worth watching his other election videos, amongst others.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Well it will all be over soon

A view also held by me and one used by me every time the damn election features on trailers for TV programmes and makes its current role of taking over the so-called "news" programmes. Why the hell did the TV companies not just use one of their minor TV channels, such as BBC4 and ITV4 for example, to keep election issues so beloved of them away from the major channels, so normal viewers can watch their normal programmes in peace.

Earlier yesterday, a very well-known male TV presenter of the "political pontification" variety was heard to utter his view that "he had never been so excited by a General Election". I do not wish to prick his particular bubble of enthusiasm unduly, but surely the phrase "getting out more and finding a life" can be seen to be reflective of this particular medical syndrome...:roll:

 

[Butts]

Ah well the big day is here at last......

If unlike me you have not had a postal vote please go and exercise your democratic right whoever you choose to place your X beside.

I can't wait for the fun to start with David and Co at 2200 tonight with the Exit Poll....all night politics fest

 

[Senex]

The UK???

If only!

 

[DarloRich]

Well the polls are now open.

Make sure you go and vote, even if it is for the Conservative party!

 

[richw]

I've grown to like ed milliband over the campaign.
The program where Joey Essex interviewed the leaders (except Cameron who refused) a couple of nights ago showed things to me from a different angle.
Ed explained his stuff in language that Joey could understand the rest kept using jargon and Joey didn't understand what they were on about.
I appreciate Joey isn't the brightest, but the fact Ed could adapt his style to talk to somebody like that when the rest couldn't impressed me. (Farage just went for a fish and chips with him and didn't really discuss politics)
At the start of the campaign I really didn't like Ed, but now he's someone I've warmed through as he has come across in touch with all levels of society whereas several of the others haven't.

 

[cf111]

I've grown to like ed milliband over the campaign.
The program where Joey Essex interviewed the leaders (except Cameron who refused) a couple of nights ago showed things to me from a different angle.
Ed explained his stuff in language that Joey could understand the rest kept using jargon and Joey didn't understand what they were on about.
I appreciate Joey isn't the brightest, but the fact Ed could adapt his style to talk to somebody like that when the rest couldn't impressed me. (Farage just went for a fish and chips with him and didn't really discuss politics)
At the start of the campaign I really didn't like Ed, but now he's someone I've warmed through as he has come across in touch with all levels of society whereas several of the others haven't.

Milliband has had a good campaign, many had him dead and buried before it started. They're dangerous words to use when discussion politicians but he certainly comes across as more human, passionate and genuine than Cameron or Clegg.

 

[GrimsbyPacer]

Miliband is the better PM. That shows through as 90% of the media is against him and he's still neck and neck with Tories. But I have no idea about who will be in charge after the hunged parliament (if it happens).

Sadly it could be a Cameron, Farage, Clegg, Adams coalition.

 

[Busaholic]

Keep a look-out for the result in Camborne, unique in this election for two reasons: the only four-way marginal and the only one to have been represented in parliament by three different parties over the last three elections (Labour 2001, LibDem 2005, Conservative 2010, majority 66). Admittedly the boundaries did change at the last election, but even so. George 'Useless' Eustice the incumbent, associations with Cameron going back a long way, from a local family probably accounting for a few thousand votes in this ultra-parochial part of the world. Even my wife, who gave up drinking years ago, would crack open the champagne if he lost, even to the dreaded UKIP.

 

[imagination]

Miliband is the better PM. That shows through as 90% of the media is against him and he's still neck and neck with Tories. But I have no idea about who will be in charge after the hunged parliament (if it happens).

Sadly it could be a Cameron, Farage, Clegg, Adams coalition.

How is that going to happen when:
a) Adams won't take his seat.
b) Clegg has personally ruled out himself ever forming a coalition involving Farage.
c) The Lib Dems would never vote on going into a coalition with UKIP anyway
d) Farage has said that UKIP won't be involved in any coalition

 

[Oswyntail]

Milliband has had a good campaign, many had him dead and buried before it started. They're dangerous words to use when discussion politicians but he certainly comes across as more human, passionate and genuine than Cameron or Clegg.

Sorry, but utterly disagree. Whenever I have seen him on TV, he has a) prearranged moves, always searching out the camera and staring at it as if trying to hypnotise b) phrases - "the working people of this country" (as if city traders, for instance, don't work) for instance - that are shoehorned in to any statement, up to three times in one sentence. and c) answers that he trots out regardless of the question, even if the question is repeated. He is most definitely not a good performer, but follows his coaches' advice too well.
IMHO, Clegg is the best, most natural peformer.

 

[Busaholic]

How is that going to happen when:
a) Adams won't take his seat.
b) Clegg has personally ruled out himself ever forming a coalition involving Farage.
c) The Lib Dems would never vote on going into a coalition with UKIP anyway
d) Farage has said that UKIP won't be involved in any coalition

Both Clegg and Farage have to be elected first, by no means a foregone conclusion in either case. Even if Farage does get in, he will probably be joined by 1-3 others at most, so his participation would hardly be vital/necessary.

 

[Antman]

Milliband has had a good campaign, many had him dead and buried before it started. They're dangerous words to use when discussion politicians but he certainly comes across as more human, passionate and genuine than Cameron or Clegg.

I've not been impressed by 'Ed Sillyman' but each to their own opinion. I wouldn't vote for him Cameron or Clegg, none fill me with confidence.

 

[me123]

Both Clegg and Farage have to be elected first, by no means a foregone conclusion in either case. Even if Farage does get in, he will probably be joined by 1-3 others at most, so his participation would hardly be vital/necessary.

Don't be so certain. I've run some numbers and the margins in this election could be spectacularly tight, particularly if EVEL comes into force. Even a small UKIP presence could prove to be more influential than you might expect.

I suspect that Farage won't get his seat. UKIP may have broad support, but I doubt he'll get the concentration needed in South Thanet. I suspect he'll just dilute the right wing vote whilst a swing towards Labour is inevitable. Furthermore, he's such a polarising candidate that I'm sure plenty of people will specifically vote tactically against him. Although this is just my poorly informed conjecture!

Farage claims he'll quit if he's not elected, so fingers crossed all round I expect.

 

[DarloRich]

Sorry, but utterly disagree. Whenever I have seen him on TV, he has a) prearranged moves, always searching out the camera and staring at it as if trying to hypnotise b) phrases - "the working people of this country" (as if city traders, for instance, don't work) for instance - that are shoehorned in to any statement, up to three times in one sentence. and c) answers that he trots out regardless of the question, even if the question is repeated. He is most definitely not a good performer, but follows his coaches' advice too well.
IMHO, Clegg is the best, most natural peformer.

I agree Clegg is the most natural performer and always comes over as a personable bloke. It is one of the reasons many voted for him last time and perhaps one of the reasons many feel betrayed.

Milliband is very stage managed but it works and he looks better than Cameron on TV. His advice is clearly to do that staring down the camera thing as an attempt to connect with the viewers.

The soundbite thing is something they all do and it is at least better than Dave waving his bit of paper around. Points B & C could refer to any of the three leaders, especially the bit about answering the question they WANT to answer!
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Miliband is the better PM. That shows through as 90% of the media is against him and he's still neck and neck with Tories. But I have no idea about who will be in charge after the hunged parliament (if it happens).

Sadly it could be a Cameron, Farage, Clegg, Adams coalition.

Adams wont join the Tory party in coalition - i think you mean one of the unionist parties.

As for the others, despite what they may say, a sniff of power and the political knickers will be round ankles again

 

[bussnapperwm]

Tonight's predictions

CON 289
LAB 268
SNP 48
LDEM 26
UKIP 3
OTH 14

 

[ainsworth74]

Well I'm happy to report that the RailUK Polling Station is still open and our crack team of counters are warming up and the returning officer is standing by to announce the results tonight

In other news I've voted and as silly as it might be I do actually quite enjoy going to the Polling Station and putting a my mark on the ballot paper.