Future of HS2?

[HSTEd]

As much 250mph infrastructure as possible is necessary to get that Glasgow/Edinborough journey time down and completely trounce the domestic air competition.

But the domestic air competition doesn't really matter, its a minor part of the transport system and in any case will be difficult to destroy completely because of connecting air passengers.
The opponent is the car.

AFAIK, Avanti subsidy is a recent post-COVID phenomenon. Clearly, strategic price differentials could incentivise travel via OOC, but consider the bad PR if it was demonstrated a particular journey was slower that way and the previous alternative had been removed.

Avanti/ICWC subsidy has been around a long time if you included the indirect subsidy via Network Rail.
But I don't think that is particularly important, I don't see the pre coronavirus world coming back - this is now the railway we have.

We could run a five to six train per hour turn-up-and-go service from Old Oak Common to Birmingham Interchange and Curzon Street out of one platform at Old Oak if we really had to. It would likely be cheaper for the railway to ship people that way than even on the slowest classic trains. There is room for major timetable rationalisation and cost cuts from that alone.
Indeed, price differentials would likely be used to push traffic like London-Solihull (and other stations) onto HS2 with a "Via HS2" routing.

What is likely to happen is that remaining fast services from Euston will get additional intermediate stops but overall numbers of trains won't change dramatically.

I expect the Avanti service to Birmingham to outright vanish entirely and frequency cuts on everything else.

 

[The Planner]

I expect the Avanti service to Birmingham to outright vanish entirely and frequency cuts on everything else.

Not a chance.

 

[Peter Sarf]

No, construction is already well underway on the planned route. You could potentially stop work, but much of the money is already either paid out or contractually committed. You’re then back to the drawing board to design a whole new route. The M1 corridor is a longer route to Birmingham so will likely cost even more.

It may scream sunk cost fallacy, but the only sane route forwards is to make the best use of what is being built already. Go to Euston and have a connection to the WCML North of Birmingham that allows trains to use HS2 to relieve the WCML.

That is what I thought/hoped. In other words we are where we are.

Personally I prefer the more future proofed version we are ending up with - but then I did not pay for (all of) it !.

Surely safeguard the Euston works but then mothball it?

The nation is struggling to afford this right now, big time. The main benefit of the whole scheme is WCML capacity, which is still delivered by reaching Old Oak for the time being. The notion that getting to Brum more quickly will revolutionise the UK was debunked long ago, it’s simply a case of redistributing the current Avanti flows at this point. Euston is an eventual ‘cherry on top’, but it can wait until the country isn’t skint!

To me missing out Euston would be a serious downgrade. I think it would leave HS2 as a white elephant. Most potential users of HS2 will not see a benefit over the West Coast Mainline so will not be inclined to try HS2. All that money spent on a route that does not get to Euston where passengers can depart on the WCML.

I think both Old Oak Common AND Euston serve to spread passengers at the London end out to cover a few different London routes. I would say Euston is more important than Old Oak Common. Certainly for me coming from Croydon there would have to be a decent cost benefit (cheaper fare) for me to travel via Old Oak Common.

---

I think building HS2 Phase 2a is also obvious. That is a comparatively cheap extension that brings more additional benefits than just stopping at Handsacre. Lets face it the most expensive/tricky part of HS2 was started first and is a long way past backing out of.

 

[Towers]

To me missing out Euston would be a serious downgrade. I think it would leave HS2 as a white elephant. Most potential users of HS2 will not see a benefit over the West Coast Mainline so will not be inclined to try HS2. All that money spent on a route that does not get to Euston where passengers can depart on the WCML.

I think both Old Oak Common AND Euston serve to spread passengers at the London end out to cover a few different London routes. I would say Euston is more important than Old Oak Common. Certainly for me coming from Croydon there would have to be a decent cost benefit (cheaper fare) for me to travel via Old Oak Common.

But the only reason everyone thinks “WCML - Euston” is because that’s where you currently depart from. Changing this to provide a second option from somewhere else doesn’t automatically make it a downgrade, it’s just different, surely? Euston isn’t closing, it will remaim an option for the WCML, but would sit alongside the HS2 alternative and relevant efforts to encourage journeys from OOC.

I accept there will be those for whom an arrival into London proper is advantageous, but there will equally be many for whom a direct change onto the Liz Line is equally beneficial, or who would prefer being closer to Paddington than Euston anyhow, or who would prefer to make their interchange at a brand new, spacious, purpose built station rather than Euston with its already horrendously conjested surroundings. Weekday peak hour, choice of Elizabeth Line from OOC or a packed tube from EUS, I know where my preference would lie! It is, surely, swings & roundabouts!

 

[HSTEd]

To me missing out Euston would be a serious downgrade. I think it would leave HS2 as a white elephant. Most potential users of HS2 will not see a benefit over the West Coast Mainline so will not be inclined to try HS2. All that money spent on a route that does not get to Euston where passengers can depart on the WCML.

They might not be inclined, unless/until they realise that they can get to Birmingham on HS2 for much less than it would take on the rump WCML.
Fares strategy can be an extremely powerful motivator - especially as the marginal cost to the Treasury of a seat on HS2 will be very low, much lower than on the conventional railway.

I think building HS2 Phase 2a is also obvious. That is a comparatively cheap extension that brings more additional benefits than just stopping at Handsacre. Lets face it the most expensive/tricky part of HS2 was started first and is a long way past backing out of.

Phase 2A is only "comparatively" cheap, it is still extremely expensive and is only becoming more so as time goes on.
Before cancellation, almost two years ago now, HS2 admitted that the cost envelope had reached £7bn before construction even began.

I doubt you will get it for less than £10bn now, and I think that is likely optimistic.

 

[Nottingham59]

I expect the Avanti service to Birmingham to outright vanish entirely and frequency cuts on everything else.

I think an express service would still run, but I would expect it to call at certainly Milton Keynes, and probable Rugby and Bletchley, and maybe Watford Junction, in addition to the current Avanti calls at Bham International and Coventry. Whether it is run by an organisation called Avanti is less certain, but I'd still expect 125mph capable stock - at least until the Pendolinos wear out.

 

[Peter Sarf]

But the only reason everyone thinks “WCML - Euston” is because that’s where you currently depart from. Changing this to provide a second option from somewhere else doesn’t automatically make it a downgrade, it’s just different, surely? Euston isn’t closing, it will remaim an option for the WCML, but would sit alongside the HS2 alternative and relevant efforts to encourage journeys from OOC.

I accept there will be those for whom an arrival into London proper is advantageous, but there will equally be many for whom a direct change onto the Liz Line is equally beneficial, or who would prefer being closer to Paddington than Euston anyhow, or who would prefer to make their interchange at a brand new, spacious, purpose built station rather than Euston with its already horrendously conjested surroundings. Weekday peak hour, choice of Elizabeth Line from OOC or a packed tube from EUS, I know where my preference would lie! It is, surely, swings & roundabouts!

If the Tube from Euston takes someone to where they want to go and that is most likely nowhere that the Elizabeth Line goes then Old Oak Common is an extra change and waste of time.

For me from Croydon I could go Thameslink to Farringdon then Elizabeth Line to Old Oak Common.

BUT

I am far more likely to stay on the Thameslink to St Pancras and walk to Euston. This is one less train (so one less risk). It also has the advantage of an alternative/back-up in the form of Croydon to Victoria then Victoria Line to Euston. Only yesterday evening I had to go via Victoria to Finsbury Park as Thameslink was running nothing to/from the Great Northern.

Getting to Old Oak Common is an out of the way place with few alternatives. I suspect this is true for the majority of people. It will be a benefit for people who are using the Elizabeth Line already and hopefully a few more. Those in a catchment area of East and West of London (not really including NE, SE, SW and NW).

 

[Nottingham59]

It also has the advantage of an alternative/back-up in the form of Croydon to Victoria then Victoria Line to Euston.

Or Croydon to Clapham Junction then direct to Old Oak Common, or whatever the new WLL station is to be called ...

 

[Peter Sarf]

Or Croydon to Clapham Junction then direct to Old Oak Common, or whatever the new WLL station is to be called ...

I wonder if a station on the West London Line will come into existence. If it does then the walk will be similar to StPancras to Euston anyway.

Then I will be aiming for the direct East Croydon to Watford Junction service. Not that I like relying on an hourly service.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think an express service would still run, but I would expect it to call at certainly Milton Keynes, and probable Rugby and Bletchley, and maybe Watford Junction, in addition to the current Avanti calls at Bham International and Coventry. Whether it is run by an organisation called Avanti is less certain, but I'd still expect 125mph capable stock - at least until the Pendolinos wear out.

The plan so far is for the residual WCML fast service to be:

2 x Birmingham (one possibly extending past, various destinations have been proposed)
1 x Manchester
1 x N Wales

All would call at MKC, plus half at Rugby and half at Watford (though my personal take is that all should call at all three, as they're about connectivity, possibly except the North Wales as that's just because no diesel on HS2).

Obviously it could all change. Who operates it? Well, I guess GBR InterCity, or whatever that turns out to be.

Stock wise who knows? If the Pendolinos are getting a bit tired and there's spare 200m HS2 units they may well use those. North Wales would, barring electrification, be the 805s just entering service for that purpose - they should be around well into HS2 operation.

 

[Shrop]

Sure, but the way I see it is that Old Oak Common is just three stops away from Tottenham Court Road, same as Euston. TCR to Acton Mainline is just 12 minutes now, so to OOC will be around 11. TCR to Euston on the Northern is 4 minutes. So only 7 minutes slower. From Liverpool St, it's 17 minutes to Euston by the Underground, according to TfL with a walk from Euston Square. Same as Liv St to OOC by the Elizabeth.

Old Oak Common to Curzon St will be around 45 minutes via HS2, 36 minutes faster than Avanti. I think most premium traffic will choose to go via HS2.

Why use Liverpool Street as an example? Should you not also be comparing the times to get to OOC vs Euston from Victoria, Waterloo and Charing Cross? Or does your "premium traffic" come from Liverpool Street rather than these Southern stations?

 

[Nottingham59]

Why use Liverpool Street as an example? Should you not also be comparing the times to get to OOC vs Euston from Victoria, Waterloo and Charing Cross? Or does your "premium traffic" come from Liverpool Street rather than these Southern stations?

Liverpool St is the main station in the City. If you want to compare from Victoria, then why don't you work it out?

 

[MarkyT]

Liverpool St is the main station in the City. If you want to compare from Victoria, then why don't you work it out?

For places not directly on the EL, getting to OOC will involve an extra change with a transfer time and associated risk. Probably not much extra time-wise anywhere in central London, but it's all eating into that 36m saving on the trunk haul. As I said before, some people, even in Central London, may find OOC easier to get to than Euston. That's the beauty of the two-station solution. They work together to provide the widest possible coverage both for serving London and the wider region by connections, including nearby out of station ones.

 

[Shrop]

Liverpool St is the main station in the City. If you want to compare from Victoria, then why don't you work it out?

Okay. Looking on the National Rail website, as a great many people will, Victoria to Euston is shown as 9 minutes. Victoria to Acton Main Line is shown as 38 minutes. So OOC loses out to Euston by 29 minutes, which paints a rather different picture to the rosy one you painted using your Liverpool Street example ...

 

[SynthD]

Seriously though. I know that HS2 has been designed into next Tuesday, but honestly, the level of incompetence in the British state is now so endemic I can no longer trust any rigorous analysis the state does about anything.

That is comparing civil servants plus external consultants plus political committees with self serving populist politicians and with amateur projects such as HSUK if they have an answer someone likes. I suggest not doing this. At some point there’s a familiar dead end of ‘maybe the experts are all right’.

One other way to look at it is that this plan predates some of the incompetence that we’ve seen for a while, as it’s a slow moving project.

I expect the Avanti service to Birmingham to outright vanish entirely and frequency cuts on everything else.

The point of the project from the WCML perspective is higher frequency.

 

[HSTEd]

I suggest not doing this. At some point there’s a familiar dead end of ‘maybe the experts are all right’.

On the other hand, the experts have brought us to this point. Noone is infallible.
Even before the "populist politicians" began the cuts, the project was clearly not going very well.

The point of the project from the WCML perspective is higher frequency.

It was, but the previous assumptions appear to have died with coronavirus and the later phases of the project.
Given the awful financial state of the railway, its not at all clear that the operational subsidy to run an extensive WCML fast timetable will be available once it is deprived of the Birmingham, et al farebox.

 

[Nottingham59]

Okay. Looking on the National Rail website, as a great many people will, Victoria to Euston is shown as 9 minutes. Victoria to Acton Main Line is shown as 38 minutes. So OOC loses out to Euston by 29 minutes, which paints a rather different picture to the rosy one you painted using your Liverpool Street example ...

So what? Go via Euston, then.

 

[HSTEd]

Okay. Looking on the National Rail website, as a great many people will, Victoria to Euston is shown as 9 minutes. Victoria to Acton Main Line is shown as 38 minutes. So OOC loses out to Euston by 29 minutes, which paints a rather different picture to the rosy one you painted using your Liverpool Street example ...

Despite that.... OOC is still as fast or faster to Birmingham and a bunch of other destinations in a situation where HS2 doesn't reach Euston. HS2 is fast enough to make up for it.

At which point the lower fares could do the rest.

 

[MarkyT]

Despite that.... OOC is still as fast or faster to Birmingham and a bunch of other destinations in a situation where HS2 doesn't reach Euston. HS2 is fast enough to make up for it.

At which point the lower fares will do the rest.

I think initially starting from OOC while Euston is finished will regulate the build-up of demand, which could be useful to allow the service to be gradually built up. Once Euston comes online and frequencies ramp up, they should have a resilient experienced operation established with all the bugs ironed out. Hopefully.

 

[stevieinselby]

But the only reason everyone thinks “WCML - Euston” is because that’s where you currently depart from. Changing this to provide a second option from somewhere else doesn’t automatically make it a downgrade, it’s just different, surely? Euston isn’t closing, it will remaim an option for the WCML, but would sit alongside the HS2 alternative and relevant efforts to encourage journeys from OOC.

I accept there will be those for whom an arrival into London proper is advantageous, but there will equally be many for whom a direct change onto the Liz Line is equally beneficial, or who would prefer being closer to Paddington than Euston anyhow, or who would prefer to make their interchange at a brand new, spacious, purpose built station rather than Euston with its already horrendously conjested surroundings. Weekday peak hour, choice of Elizabeth Line from OOC or a packed tube from EUS, I know where my preference would lie! It is, surely, swings & roundabouts!

The key question is "do you want swings and roundabouts, or just roundabouts?".
The choice is not between Euston or Old Oak Common, it's between "Euston and Old Oak Common" or Old Oak Common.
The former clearly gives a lot more options for onward connections by train, tube, bus, taxi or foot than the latter, by virtue of including all that the latter has and a lot more.
It's also highly doubtful that the Elizabeth Line would have sufficient capacity to cope with turfing all HS2 passengers off at Old Oak Common unless it's running a completely hobbled service with nothing beyond Birmingham.

 

[Towers]

The key question is "do you want swings and roundabouts, or just roundabouts?".
The choice is not between Euston or Old Oak Common, it's between "Euston and Old Oak Common" or Old Oak Common.
The former clearly gives a lot more options for onward connections by train, tube, bus, taxi or foot than the latter, by virtue of including all that the latter has and a lot more.
It's also highly doubtful that the Elizabeth Line would have sufficient capacity to cope with turfing all HS2 passengers off at Old Oak Common unless it's running a completely hobbled service with nothing beyond Birmingham.

The key question then, surely, is not about whether we want it, but whether we can afford it. The roundabouts alone would get some basic benefit delivered from what has already become something of an ugly national monster. The current state of the nation’s finances rather suggests that we might be overstretching somewhat to go for the swings as well at this stage.

 

[wandacat]

What's the catchment area for HS2 at the Birmingham end?

It seems the assumption is everyone travels to Birmingham City Centre and no further with the expectation also being everyone living outside Birminghsm City Centre will fight their way to East Birmingham (Curzon Street)

I live 4.5 miles Birmingham City Centre and 3 miles from Sandwell and Dudley.

I always use Sandwell and Dudley on the infrequent occasions I goto London.

10 -15 mins drive, free parking, direct trains to Central London.

New Street / Curzon Street. Driving a no go. Parking difficult and expensive.

Public transport. 10 mins walk to frequent bus service then 20 to 30 mins journey to City centre and 5 mins walk.

I will still use Sandwell and Dudley post HS2 via the WCML. I cannot even connect onto HS2 at New Street (Same as large parts of the West Midlands)

I can see many people in the West Midlands continuing to prefer the legacy WCML service.

 

[Peter Sarf]

For places not directly on the EL, getting to OOC will involve an extra change with a transfer time and associated risk. Probably not much extra time-wise anywhere in central London, but it's all eating into that 36m saving on the trunk haul. As I said before, some people, even in Central London, may find OOC easier to get to than Euston. That's the beauty of the two-station solution. They work together to provide the widest possible coverage both for serving London and the wider region by connections, including nearby out of station ones.

That is my hope too - that the two HS2 London stations provide a choice. Primarily Euston with Old Oak Common scooping up as much as possible.

Okay. Looking on the National Rail website, as a great many people will, Victoria to Euston is shown as 9 minutes. Victoria to Acton Main Line is shown as 38 minutes. So OOC loses out to Euston by 29 minutes, which paints a rather different picture to the rosy one you painted using your Liverpool Street example ...

This sums up why Euston is important to me in Croydon. Damn good frequency to Victoria then same for the Victoria Line to Euston but more importantly for me a good Thameslink frequency to StPancras and then my legs are always ready for my walk to Euston.

Euston is going to be more attractive to almost all prospective passengers that are not on the Elizabeth line or its catchment area.

I think initially starting from OOC while Euston is finished will regulate the build-up of demand, which could be useful to allow the service to be gradually built up. Once Euston comes online and frequencies ramp up, they should have a resilient experienced operation established with all the bugs ironed out. Hopefully.

Alarm - If passenger loadings are not very positive on HS2 with just Old Oak Common then the powers that be might bottle it and abandon Euston.
Here's hoping the Old Oak Common interchange struggles with demand (but I doubt it).

What's the catchment area for HS2 at the Birmingham end?

It seems the assumption is everyone travels to Birmingham City Centre and no further with the expectation also being everyone living outside Birminghsm City Centre will fight their way to East Birmingham (Curzon Street)

I live 4.5 miles Birmingham City Centre and 3 miles from Sandwell and Dudley.

I always use Sandwell and Dudley on the infrequent occasions I goto London.

10 -15 mins drive, free parking, direct trains to Central London.

New Street / Curzon Street. Driving a no go. Parking difficult and expensive.

Public transport. 10 mins walk to frequent bus service then 20 to 30 mins journey to City centre and 5 mins walk.

I will still use Sandwell and Dudley post HS2 via the WCML. I cannot even connect onto HS2 at New Street (Same as large parts of the West Midlands)

I can see many people in the West Midlands continuing to prefer the legacy WCML service.

Ah well then, that also sums up the London end without Euston. I do wish HS2 could have got closer to Birmingham New Street and all the other rail routes that serve the west Midlands.

Integrated transport policy - no chance .

 

[Shrop]

That is my hope too - that the two HS2 London stations provide a choice. Primarily Euston with Old Oak Common scooping up as much as possible.

This sums up why Euston is important to me in Croydon. Damn good frequency to Victoria then same for the Victoria Line to Euston but more importantly for me a good Thameslink frequency to StPancras and then my legs are always ready for my walk to Euston.

Euston is going to be more attractive to almost all prospective passengers that are not on the Elizabeth line or its catchment area.

Alarm - If passenger loadings are not very positive on HS2 with just Old Oak Common then the powers that be might bottle it and abandon Euston.
Here's hoping the Old Oak Common interchange struggles with demand (but I doubt it).

I agree, there's obviously value in using OOC now that it's become an inevitability, and there's plenty of value in keeping on with Euston via WCML too, irrespective of when (or if) HS2 eventually runs into Euston.

If it becomes a contest for attracting passengers to one or the other though, that could get quite nasty and political. It could depend on who is in Government when it opens (and let's face it, that won't necessarily be the present Government), but there could be bribery involved. Bribery of passengers that is, by making fares on HS2 artificially cheap in order to attract people to use it, after all we couldn't have £billions spent on a new railway and then not see it well used could we?!!!

 

[HSTEd]

If it becomes a contest for attracting passengers to one or the other though, that could get quite nasty and political. It could depend on who is in Government when it opens (and let's face it, that won't necessarily be the present Government), but there could be bribery involved. Bribery of passengers that is, by making fares on HS2 artificially cheap in order to attract people to use it, after all we couldn't have £billions spent on a new railway and then not see it well used could we?!!!

Are HS2 fares going to be "artificially cheap"?
On HS2 a 400m trainset with a single crew member can haul 1100+ passengers in each direction every ~ 2 hours.

Multiple crew on a pendolino set will manage many fewer passengers with a repeat time more like 3 hours.

In terms of cost to the railway, passengers using HS2 will save a huge pile of money.

 

[fishwomp]

Are HS2 fares going to be "artificially cheap"?
On HS2 a 400m trainset with a single crew member can haul 1100+ passengers in each direction every ~ 2 hours.

Except that they are 2x200m, and when they run north of Birmingham they will be shorter as 1x200m instead of current 250m - so south of Birmingham they will have 2 lots of passenger-side crew, and north Birmingham the crew will have fewer passengers. Also - it will be reservations only - so no ability to do crush loading levels in the peak and so huge efficiency that you currently see then.

It is true that faster journey means less stock required - but actually this has been over ordered...

It's only a few weeks since there were reports that they would need to price it high to keep passenger numbers low due to the formation length problem.

Multiple crew on a pendolino set will manage many fewer passengers with a repeat time more like 3 hours.

In terms of cost to the railway, passengers using HS2 will save a huge pile of money.

Nope. It has to (or the taxpayer has to) pay the mortgage..

 

[HSTEd]

Except that they are 2x200m, and when they run north of Birmingham they will be shorter as 1x200m instead of current 250m - so south of Birmingham they will have 2 lots of passenger-side crew, and north Birmingham the crew will have fewer passengers.

Do we need "passenger side crew?"

The journey to Birmingham is 40 minutes.
Also worth noting that the rolling stock hasn't even started construction yet, so we could always just change the order.
Depot modifications would cost some money, unless we just move them to one of the many other depots available.

Also - it will be reservations only - so no ability to do crush loading levels in the peak and so huge efficiency that you currently see then.

Unless HS2 were silly enough to base their safety assumptions on the idea that they can guarantee a train is never overloaded (which I can't see getting past the regulator), then they will have based their safety margins on the train being crush loaded - just as all other trains in the UK are.

At which point the only reason it has to be compulsory reservation is because HS2 says so, which is no reason at all.

It is true that faster journey means less stock required - but actually this has been over ordered...

There are plenty of other places that can absorb the stock, especially if things like Pendos start going for scrap.

Nope. It has to (or the taxpayer has to) pay the mortgage..

The taxpayer has to pay the mortgage whatever happens, the only parameter the taxpayer can change is how much money is spent on the WCML in an attempt to run a parallel service.

EDIT: From the original HS2 train technical specification:

Exceptional Payload (1SL) - design mass under exceptional payload as defined in EN 15663[46] for high speed and long distance vehicles with 90kg per person for all seated passengers and up to 320kg/m² in standing and Catering Areas and Tip-up Seats in the down position. This shall be calculated using the 1SL defined in Section 11.1.
If the 2SL is later chosen as the base layout, payloads will be based on the 2SL instead. The mass of standing passengers shall be varied to a single value for the whole Unit up to 320kg/m², but such that the payload of any vehicle is no higher than Exceptional Payload (HDL) of that vehicle.

The trains are apparently designed for ~3.5 standing passengers per m2.
So it appears there is no safety driver for compulsory reservations so they can be dispensed with if we wish.

 

[Snow1964]

Reuters is reporting an LBC story that Government has decided to build HS2 from Euston to Crewe, but the Crewe section will have a different consortium

LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The British government is set to announce that the long-delayed HS2 railway will run from the central London station of Euston all the way to Crewe in northern England, LBC radio reported on Thursday.
According to the LBC report, state-owned HS2 LTD will not oversee the extension to Crewe, and the multi-billion-pound project will be handed to a private sector consortium instead.

https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-say-hs2-railway-will-run-northern-england-lbc-reports-2024-10-17/

 

[BAFRA77]

Andrew Gilligan was on LBC earlier on with Uncle Nick having his usual ill-informed ideological rant

 

[TomTankEngine]

Government quells HS2 Phase 2a rumours

Downing Street has dampened down suggestions the northern leg of the HS2 rail project could be revived.

www.railmagazine.com

Why are they so against reviving what is obviously the best option?