Future of HS2?

[Towers]

Years of discussion to the point that it’s difficult to do a simple recap; but, broadly, what is the actual advantage of running into Euston as opposed to just OOC, given the potential for plenty of connectivity out of Old Oak?

Suggesting it’s imperative to run “into” London, given that nowadays you could stop just about anywhere in the region and have onward connections in all directions, seems rather antiquated?

 

[JonathanH]

Years of discussion to the point that it’s difficult to do a simple recap; but, broadly, what is the actual advantage of running into Euston as opposed to just OOC, given the potential for plenty of connectivity out of Old Oak?

There isn't lots of connectivity out of Old Oak Common, and it isn't being designed to turn back as many trains as could potentially be within the capacity of the HS2 running lines. People expect to end their journey in Zone 1, not some place well outside the centre of London.

 

[Trainbike46]

Years of discussion to the point that it’s difficult to do a simple recap; but, broadly, what is the actual advantage of running into Euston as opposed to just OOC, given the potential for plenty of connectivity out of Old Oak?

Suggesting it’s imperative to run “into” London, given that nowadays you could stop just about anywhere in the region and have onward connections in all directions, seems rather antiquated?

Broadly speaking:
- part of the reason for having 2 stations was to spread the load from all those passengers across 2 places rather than 1, to avoid overloading onward transport options
- OOC offers good connectivity to some parts of london, but certainly not all of it. Euston offers different connectivity options, making the journey easier for all people
- OOC was never designed to permanently turn around lots of trains, a new euston would be - offering higher capacity

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

If they really are based on the Zefiro (Frecciarossa 1000). then Trenitalia might be interested in taking them on.

Oh don't be mentioning that to the DfT!

 

[HSTEd]

Broadly speaking:
- part of the reason for having 2 stations was to spread the load from all those passengers across 2 places rather than 1, to avoid overloading onward transport options

However, now that the scheme as envisaged is not happening, the loading on onward connections from HS2 will be a fraction of what was projected.

 

[SynthD]

Journeys are formed by the current infrastructure, which means the demand for the west coast is where the WCML ends: Euston. It's also a place with options. Old Oak Common is too reliant on the Elizabeth line, the buses, Overground, walk to Central Line are not high capacity. On that note, what happens when OOC is fully opened and busy, but the Elizabeth line goes down? Should HS2 passengers be permitted to go onto Euston?

 

[Gareth]

Having to get off at OOC would be a big downgrade. It might even make getting the coach instead more attractive in certain circumstances.

No Euston and the project is essentially irredeemable.

 

[HSTEd]

Having to get off at OOC would be a big downgrade. It might even make getting the coach instead more attractive in certain circumstances.

I very much doubt that, given how long the coach from Birmingham takes.

No Euston and the project is essentially irredeemable.

Well the project has already failed, we are just arguing about whether anything gets used at all.

 

[Gareth]

I'm not just talking about Birmingham. If the coach is priced right and the passenger is not time poor, they may consider it. People do currently, despite it being a lot slower. Make the train that bit less attractive and you make the coach that bit more so.

HS2, even if it's just Phase 1, is useful. But it needs Euston.

 

[poffle]

Broadly speaking:
- part of the reason for having 2 stations was to spread the load from all those passengers across 2 places rather than 1, to avoid overloading onward transport options
- OOC offers good connectivity to some parts of london, but certainly not all of it. Euston offers different connectivity options, making the journey easier for all people
- OOC was never designed to permanently turn around lots of trains, a new euston would be - offering higher capacity

In the modelling I believe that the majority of GWML would transfer to Elizabeth Line at OOC rather than continue to Paddington. It will be faster to change from GWML to EL at OOC than at Paddington

For HS2 it was expected expected that a minority would interchange at OOC. Euston has a much richer set of interchange options than OOC but there was concern that Euston infrastructure would be overloaded by HS2 so OOC was added to relieve some of the pressure on Euston.

Ironically a lot of this has now been turned in it's head with all the changes to HS2.

There is a need for a properly designed Euston which can handle HS2 / WCML / Underground/ Crossrail 2. There needs to be platforms which are accessible from HS2 and WCML. There needs to be pedestrian access from the sides. Ideally a much bigger concourse and access to trains from the middle of the platforms and not just from one end. Euston is not good at dealing with the current volume of traffic.

 

[Gareth]

If I recall correctly, approximately a third of passengers would use OOC. The other two thirds would continue using Euston.

 

[Towers]

Journeys are formed by the current infrastructure, which means the demand for the west coast is where the WCML ends: Euston. It's also a place with options. Old Oak Common is too reliant on the Elizabeth line, the buses, Overground, walk to Central Line are not high capacity. On that note, what happens when OOC is fully opened and busy, but the Elizabeth line goes down? Should HS2 passengers be permitted to go onto Euston?

Hmm. What are the options available from Euston that can’t be reasonably replicated from OOC? The place is already rammed, does the existing Underground network provide a better alternative than the Lizzy Line plus GWR high speed options westwards from the Oak? Buses surely aren’t relevant here, nobody is honestly suggesting that any significant proportion of journeys made on a ‘jewel in the crown’ high speed railway should end crawling through London traffic? So it is, presumably, all about the onward connections by rail? The “Lizzy” seems quite hard to beat, in fairness. There’s also the potential for direct connections onto the GWML of course, rather than essentially back the way you’ve just come (sort of) up the WCML.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Hmm. What are the options available from Euston that can’t be reasonably replicated from OOC? The place is already rammed, does the existing Underground network provide a better alternative than the Lizzy Line plus GWR high speed options westwards from the Oak? Buses surely aren’t relevant here, nobody is honestly suggesting that any significant proportion of journeys made on a ‘jewel in the crown’ high speed railway should end crawling through London traffic? So it is, presumably, all about the onward connections by rail? The “Lizzy” seems quite hard to beat, in fairness. There’s also the potential for direct connections onto the GWML of course, rather than essentially back the way you’ve just come (sort of) up the WCML.

Buses are very relevant, as are taxis, bicycles and foot.

 

[Towers]

Buses are very relevant, as are taxis, bicycles and foot.

Even if that’s the case, buses from Euston go wherever they happen to go, as do buses from Paddington? Or indeed buses from any of the stations on the Elizabeth Line. I don’t see that being a huge sway? Foot/taxi etc; Paddington is moments away from OOC, where those options are again available?

I appreciate that “the plan” was for all of those OOC/Pad options to be available anyway, alongside those at EUS, but it doesn’t seem the end of the world if the EUS option was removed?

 

[Gareth]

I struggle to think of any of the occasions I've been to London where I'd have alighted at OOC if it were an option. Other people will be different, roughly a third of them. For the rest of us, it would be a downgrade. Indeed, it's likely my door-to-door journey would be longer if I had to get off at OOC, wiping out the modest journey time reduction HS2 Phase 1 gives.

 

[Towers]

I struggle to think of any of the occasions I've been to London where I'd have alighted at OOC if it were an option. Other people will be different, roughly a third of them. For the rest of us, it would be a downgrade. Indeed, it's likely my door-to-door journey would be longer if I had to get off at OOC, wiping out the modest journey time reduction HS2 Phase 1 gives.

If it offers only a “modest” reduction in the first place then either you’re not the target market or it’s a poor scheme.

Is it not the case that one of the greatest benefits of HS2, albeit entirely ‘hidden’, is the reduction of some WCML passenger traffic in order to free up paths? Presumably that is delivered regardless of where it terminates?

 

[Gareth]

No it isn't. If it takes me longer, then it's a worse service.

And how many trains per hour are you expecting OOC to turnaround? If there's still a Lime St-Euston WCML service, I'll be using that, thank you very much.

 

[Towers]

No it isn't. If it takes me longer, then it's a worse service.

And how many trains per hour are you expecting OOC to turnaround? If there's still a Lime St-Euston WCML service, I'll be using that, thank you very much.

If HS2 provides, as you state, “a modest journey reduction” over the current existing options, then that’s a rather difficult sell given the cost of it all. Hence, based on your specific situation, as I said you’re unlikely to be who it’s primarily aimed at.

 

[Gareth]

I'm in a large city on the WCML. If it's not aimed at me, who is it aimed at? Pray tell.

 

[Towers]

I'm in a large city on the WCML. If it's not aimed at me, who is it aimed at? Pray tell.

You make a rather good argument for binning off the whole lot then!

 

[Gareth]

My argument is that without Euston it's irredeemable. A joke. A carbuncle.

Phase 1 built fully, whilst disappointing to those who'd have liked some or all of Phase 2 built as well, is still a worthy project in its own right. No Euston and it would've been better to do nothing and have saved all the money spent on it thus far.

 

[cle]

I struggle to think of any of the occasions I've been to London where I'd have alighted at OOC if it were an option. Other people will be different, roughly a third of them. For the rest of us, it would be a downgrade. Indeed, it's likely my door-to-door journey would be longer if I had to get off at OOC, wiping out the modest journey time reduction HS2 Phase 1 gives.

Canary Wharf, The City, Heathrow, parts of the West End and the Holborn/Clerkenwell areas in between - those would be much quicker via OOC than Euston.

Victoria line destinations, South Bank/Thameside and by foot are the only edges I see.

 

[Gareth]

Yet two thirds of us would continue to use Euston if the thing were to be built properly.

 

[Towers]

My argument is that without Euston it's irredeemable. A joke. A carbuncle.

Phase 1 built fully, whilst disappointing to those who'd have liked some or all of Phase 2 built as well, is still a worthy project in its own right. No Euston and it would've been better to do nothing and have saved all the money spent on it thus far.

There’s nothing to stop Gvmnt “pausing” the EUS chunk, or even the works being repurposed for station remodelling in the future. But, with the nation staring at a thumping great black hole, a realistic view needs to be taken. It’s a lot of money, and the overwhelming majority of the HS2 benefit can be delivered with a terminus at OOC. I’d much rather see the pot shared around so that much needed regional projects like Portishead aren’t shelved for the sake of a few miles of track in London, which already has connectivity that the rest of the nation can only dream of.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Jul 2024 ==

Yet two thirds of us would continue to use Euston if the thing were to be built properly.

But if it isn’t, it really makes precious little difference in the grand scheme of things.

 

[Gareth]

Oh right, it's the "do half a job so there's extra money for other areas" argument. How is anything going on in Portishead dependent on HS2 Euston not going ahead?

And you ask those two thirds if it'll make "precious little difference".

 

[Towers]

Oh right, it's the "do half a job so there's extra money for other areas" argument. How is anything going on in Portishead dependent on HS2 Euston?l not going ahead?

And you ask those two thirds if it'll make "precious little difference".

Because the Treasury have an enormous black hole to fill in the nation’s finances, hence large infrastructure projects are coming under scrutiny. It is very much linked currently, as is everything else! There is only so much money available and it can’t all be spent getting people into Euston because they prefer it to Old Oak Common!

With respect, try explaining to residents of Portishead who spend their evenings sitting in traffic why OOC over EUS is completely unacceptable, when their desperately needed modest branchline is still nowhere to be found after years of promises!

As for the “two thirds”, if HS2 terminates at OOC then they’ll simply get off the train there and make use of whatever links are provided, just as they would have done at Euston. If HS2 dumped them on the Isle of Wight instead of in London, that would be a big deal. A stone’s throw from Paddington rather than Euston, honestly, not so much. Again; in the grand scheme of things….

 

[HSTEd]

Must not fall victim to the sunk cost fallacy.

 

[Gareth]

Must not fall victim to the sunk cost fallacy

That doesn't stop it being a regrettable carbuncle.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 30 Jul 2024 ==

Because the Treasury have an enormous black hole to fill in the nation’s finances, hence large infrastructure projects are coming under scrutiny. It is very much linked currently, as is everything else! There is only so much money available and it can’t all be spent getting people into Euston because they prefer it to Old Oak Common!

With respect, try explaining to residents of Portishead who spend their evenings sitting in traffic why OOC over EUS is completely unacceptable, when their desperately needed modest branchline is still nowhere to be found after years of promises!

Maybe we can cut it to Birmingham Interchange. Even better. Can't be too choosy. I'm sure it'll make all those motorists from Portishead spending their evenings stuck in traffic on the outskirts of Birmingham feel the disruption is all worth it also.

 

[The Planner]

No it isn't. If it takes me longer, then it's a worse service.

And how many trains per hour are you expecting OOC to turnaround? If there's still a Lime St-Euston WCML service, I'll be using that, thank you very much.

If Handsacre is built, there won't be.

 

[Gareth]

Not looking forward to that.