That is the elephant in the room. A lot of the railways never were paying their way. If they did then the government would have to mind their own business. I am not saying subsidy is wrong but it has its downsides and may not be so forthcoming now.
Plus we can't be sure of any transport ministers staying in post long enough to make decisions about the 379s for example.
I definitely think the possibility exists that ordering new EMUs will now be more expensive than the 379s. Interest rates on the rise means the loans to pay for any new trains will be higher than until a few months ago. BUT I do not think there will be any new orders for EMUs for the foreseeable future. Except perhaps for Scotrail, if this year.
I think it is more likely that the class 379 fleet will be leased than new trains being ordered. I say this with being involved in the IT/Computer industry with the shortage of chips being manufactured from the likes of China. There is I believe delays in getting other parts needed to build trains, which if trains where ordered today would probably mean that the trains would not be delivered much before 2029.
Nothing wrong with believing that, just prepare to be disappointed.
How so? No one on here knows anything yet… let’s just wait and see what happens. Too early to rule anything out yet.
Or, of course, rule anything in. See the various predictions of further use that appear wide of the mark.
Well. What happens at the end of the day if the 379s have to go for scraps? Then what will be will be?
360/2s were rather limited with usage beyond Heathrow shuttles owing to equipment fitted, were privately owned and a small microfleet of 5, with only 2 having gone for scrap and the remaining 3 saved at the last second. 365s were an unfortunate case of newer EMUs being available and are non-standard compared to, say, an Electrostar or a Desiro and lacked the capability to be refitted for freight/parcel work, hence Eversholt cut their losses and sent them for scrap.
The point still stands that units that are relatively new have been scrapped when it became clear there was no future work on the horizon. As for 360s being privately owned, aren’t the 379s privately owned as well?
I think what was meant that the Class 360/2 and class 332 fleets where owned by BAA plc (hheathrow Airport Holdings), rather than a leasing company, which is who owns the class 379 units.
It does not look good that the cascade you refer to was not forthcoming. All those 313s, 455s, 465s & 466s will need replacing sooner rather than later unless a severe decline in service levels (frequency and/or length) is really so likely !.
GWR put out a tender that was worded to imply they wanted 379s although I'm not sure why. They have enough 387s for the half hourly Didcot semi fasts, the hourly Newbury fast and the odd longer distance service even after giving up 12 for the HeX operation.
The general opinion seems to be that they wanted to put some pressure on the 387 leasing company to reduce charges by making them compete with the akiem 379s
It was a market testing exercise which has since been dropped, given GWR has just put out a tender for maintenance on the 387s.
I hope (possibly in vain) that this might not be the case for the 379s, as their owners don't own any other UK passenger fleets so there's no real way for them to be undercut.
The 365 is not a suitable comparison. 1994 entry to service is far, far earlier than 2011.
They can be seen on Google satellite. I count 15 so some must have moved since the image was recorded. The prevailing wind will normally blow the salty air away from them. Do they move from time to time?
I must admit - 26 years of service isn’t too shabby for the 365s. Granted they could have gone on for longer, but you can understand why they didn’t. You could understand the issues with the 379s if they were not really part of a common platform. It isn’t as if spare parts will be an issue.
