TT-ONR-NRN
Veteran Member
I can't see the future, and yet I know that the idea of Great Western Railway getting rid of their 158s when they're already exceptionally short on units is nonsense. Southern's situation is very much the same.
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Future of Class 379
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RobShipway
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I cannot see class 377 units going off lease. Admittedly, business travel has not picked up after Covid. But there is more leisure travel, even during the week and on this basis I cannot see Southern having any class 377 units go off lease. If the leisure numbers continue to increase, then I suspect that the class 379 fleet may have shoes added and join their class 377 cousins.
Southern Dvr
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Is there any evidence that can be provided to back up the allegation that GTR are withdrawing 377s?
Asking for a friend, the MD of GTR!!
Asking for a friend, the MD of GTR!!
43074
Established Member
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The fact GTR are leasing more Electrostars from December which wouldn't be happening if there were 377s lying around?
None, as it quite simply isn’t true!
Neither did anyone ever suggest it was true. It was just an alternative (and speculative) view on the future of the GTR operation in the instance where further cost savings are required.
The premise of this thread appears to be that service provision is on an upward trajectory and that the natural level of service on the GTR network is restoration of something closer to what used to run in March 2020, which brings the requirement for additional rolling stock (ie a 379-led cascade)
If push came to shove, further cuts could be made which allowed the 313s to leave without replacement rolling stock. They wouldn't be nice, welcome or desirable but, in my opinion, it could be done. The fact that hasn't been the plan to date is because DfT were prepared to pay for 377/5s to be brought in. The DfT could easily go back on that decision.
Equally, if the DfT directed it, further cuts could be made that meant some of the residual fleet was surplus. Those cuts might lead to overcrowding or sub-optimum journeys for people but maybe the DfT (and Treasury) would be content for that to happen if it resulted in lower levels of subsidy.
dk1
Veteran Member
The two have just departed Norwich platform 4 for Ilford depot. Just for some mainainence work nothing more.
dk1
Veteran Member
Norwich driver route conducting a Clacton driver.
Sutton in Ant
Member
Well, I think what may happen in the end if no 1 is going to pay the leasing prices to Akiem. I think that what may happen to the 379s is that some rail operator and leasing company might do what South West Trains did with 2 old trains and make a new train with 2 old trains and make 1 new train. I don't know if it is going to def as some of my previous comments caused a stir but this is what I think might happen in the future.
py_megapixel
Established Member
I'm not really sure what you mean... are you talking about when the two Alstom fleets were combined to make the 458/5s?
I suppose it's not beyond the realms of possibility that the 379 cars could be inserted into GTR's Electrostar fleet, for example, but I imagine it would be easier for them just to take on the 379s and use them to allow the cascade of 387s to Southern, as mentioned previously. Plus that way they wouldn't be "wasting" the driving cars. I am lead to believe that the main obstacle to doing this is simply that the funding isn't available, rather than anything else.
I am confused, though, as to why Akiem wouldn't want to decrease what they're charging if nobody is taking them at the current price. Surely having them in service for a lower price than they would ideally want is preferable to having them sitting around doing nothing, depreciating but not making them any money.
I can't see there being much point. Akiem only own the 379s, so don't have another fleet readily available to merge them with - and thats in the almost non-existent scenario they would want to. Seeing as the 379s are compatible with other Electrostars already and there is no demand for units any longer than 4 carriages I can't see it happening under any circumstances. The inherant problem is that the leasing costs are too high, not anything else.
Sutton in Ant
Member
Well. Yes, I was talking about the 458/5s which was constructed from 458, and the 460s
D365
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Which were both owned by Porterbrook.
The only way in which the 379s will be disbanded, is for scrap.
zwk500
Veteran Member
I suppose it depends on whether Akiem think that by hanging on they can get the leasing fees back up. If a TOC is taking trains on lease, they presumably will want them committed for a reasonable time to recoup the cost of getting the units back into service.
ashkeba
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So are the Flirts that replaced the 379s, or the many Aventras, undesirable?
I was talking about the 379s and in particular responding to Sutton in Ant's idea to merge together the 379 fleet with another fleet, because I can't see GTR or any other potential 379 customers needing individual units longer than 4 carriages for their operations, as it would be more hassle than its worth to merge them with another fleet as suggested above, considering they can be joined to make longer trains and TOCs like GTR would likely want 4 car units for ease of diagramming with the existing 4 car 377s and 387s.
Its a pity the Gautrain deal fell through.
www.businessinsider.co.za
its not just here passenger numbers are down.
however it seems there are still proposals on the table being discussed, though just like here money is the objection.
www.engineeringnews.co.za
The longer the 379’s rot here, the more chance a cheap bargain could overcome objections down there, if no one wants them here by then.
imo Southern is becoming very overcrowded, even at weekends, moving GNs 387s south and swapping for 379’s would have merit from a passenger perspective.. but I guess it needs political support to make it happen.
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its not just here passenger numbers are down.
however it seems there are still proposals on the table being discussed, though just like here money is the objection.
Proposed Gautrain expansion faces heavy resistance by committee
The proposed Gautrain expansion project was harshly criticised as a vanity project, a white elephant and a waste of government finances by members of the Gauteng Legislature’s Portfolio Committee on Roads and Transport, which convened on August 16 to discuss its viability. The committee...
www.engineeringnews.co.za
The longer the 379’s rot here, the more chance a cheap bargain could overcome objections down there, if no one wants them here by then.
imo Southern is becoming very overcrowded, even at weekends, moving GNs 387s south and swapping for 379’s would have merit from a passenger perspective.. but I guess it needs political support to make it happen.
If the 379s can make it to next year then maybe we will see something happen with them, as the latest issue of Modern Railways says that the 730s will take over Wolverhampton to Walsall services from late next year.
That will means the 350/2s will be off lease which will lead to there being some competition in terms of off lease EMUs.
However with the fact there is no money I know the 350/2s going off lease will most likey not affect the leasing cost of the 379s.
That will means the 350/2s will be off lease which will lead to there being some competition in terms of off lease EMUs.
However with the fact there is no money I know the 350/2s going off lease will most likey not affect the leasing cost of the 379s.
43074
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There were at least 4 circuits short formed with only 4 coaches today on services between London and the Coast, that alone implies the 377 fleet is overstretched from a maintenance point of view, nevermind not having enough units to deal with the crowding problems.
If Southern is getting very overcrowded at weekends fares need to rise or be restructured in the same way they were on SWR. Weekend passengers do not pay the bills to justify more capacity.
If Southern is getting overcrowded during the week at peak times there might be an argument for increasing its stock levels but suggestions are that the DfT / Treasury want to see cuts and savings across the railway.
Peregrine 4903
Established Member
I do find it quite funny how anti railway some users are on this forum. I fail to see why someone asking for trains to be longer at weekends to avoid overcrowding is such a crime?
I get your point, but completely disagree with it. Why are weekend passengers worth less than weekday ones? I think that's complete nonsense to be honest and once again showing the warped short term nature of thinking in this country about tax payer's money and the short term over literally everything else.
The WMR ones might be working Wolverhampton to Walsall soon but the LNWR units are still a while away.
That’s what Modern Railways ment. I should have been more clear. My bad.
43096
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Huh? No one said it is a crime.
Because they pay less, perhaps?
On the flip side, it’s astonishing how many people are tone deaf to the messages out of Government in recent weeks and think we can just carry on spending more and more taxpayers’ cash.
It is, thats my point… its full seven days a week.
But at weekend it is short formed.
if a 20 year old DOO operated train filled to standing with passengers, running between a majority of stations that are unstaffed at a weekend is still loss making then there isnt any hope… theres nothing left to cut.
A train should be able to support itself without relying on Indian levels of passenger capacity to make it so.
If that truly is what it takes, then there is a serious imbalance on service provision in the country and maybe Beeching was right…. More lines should close… indeed most lines outside major cities would have no chance. Somethings not adding up.
if its the week day off peak times thats killing this, then why is it running at all ? Do the maintenance then, put more focus on weekends.
if its actually making a profit but being siphoned off to other lines that are loss making, then its time pull out the claw and rip them up (Well at least learn something from Beeching… just suspend the service and mothball the line).
I do think a train ticket should show two prices… 1. The fare they pay, 2. The part fare the government is paying via a subsidy for their ticket…. People may think differently then, and the railways become slightly more transparent about whats working and whats being bailed out.
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Peter Sarf
Established Member
My guess (fear) is that DfT are not allowing any commitment to extra spending on any routes/stock until they know how things have settled down Nationally. If indeed Southern could do with more stock now it might eventually come from another area that has lost more passengers. Spending out now on using 379s now might look foolish in two years time if, say, Great Western end up with surplus 387s due to contraction in their passenger numbers. And don't apply to much logic as to what stock is suitable where - that is quite possibly beyond DfTs understanding/interest.
33 is the ideal number for GWR at the moment - the surplus ones they had (excluding the ones that went to HEX) were the 3 that transferred from c2c, which moved on to Great Northern. Given the 387s also work limited Cardiff/West Country electrified runs now alongside their Thames Valley duties, I don’t see any moving over anytime soon.
Peter Sarf
Established Member
OK, but its just an example. Could be any other TOC.
Also lets face it. If the UK is going to be so short of money then the subsidies might be dropping regardless of demand. If the money is not there then the DfT are not going to listen to bleats of - but what about the passenger numbers.
The 379s could be just another victim of
py_megapixel
Established Member
Yes, how dare those naughty passengers try to use the passenger railway. They must be priced off!
If trains can be overcrowded and still not come close to "paying their way" at current British fare levels, there is something fundamentally wrong with the system which will not be fixed by just increasing the fares a bit.
Maybe Southern are selling too many extremely cheap advances on trains which are already busy, but I imagine if they had been, DfT would have told them to knock it off already.
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