Future of Class 379

[D365]

I'd've thought they might do well replacing the 387s on Heathrow Express services, given their background, though obviously that would require a repaint and a retouch for the Hex units that have been recently done up anyway. But I suppose this is all speculative.

30 379s to replace 14 ETCS-equipped 387s? That would need far more than a repaint on the 379s.

In any case - there's a recent speculative discussion for Class 379s here.

 

[Iskra]

Could they replace some of the older Glasgow EMU’s to provide a more modern uniform fleet and help cover the ever extending Scottish Electric network?

 

[Purple Train]

30 379s to replace 14 ETCS-equipped 387s? That would need far more than a repaint on the 379s.

In any case - there's a recent speculative discussion for Class 379s here.

I think I might need some more sleep

 

[61653 HTAFC]

Could they replace some of the older Glasgow EMU’s to provide a more modern uniform fleet and help cover the ever extending Scottish Electric network?

There's 30 379s which are all 4-car units, and Scotrail's main use of EMUs which are likely to come up for replacement is pretty much based on 3/6-car units. Outside of the Strathclyde suburban area, where 4-car units aren't unsuitable, those 30 units aren't sufficient to entirely replace any existing fleet. For the fleet to become "more uniform" they'd really need to replace two classes in order to achieve that goal.

Future electrification could provide a use case, though you'd still be introducing another electric fleet into the mix. As they'd be replacing a mixture of DMU classes in some cases there would still be a gain in terms of uniformity, but additional class 385 sets would still be a better option. It's not as if Transport Scotland are averse to getting the chequebook out, as the new station at Reston and the Breich rebuild demonstrate.

 

[Sutton in Ant]

Well. It is nearly September and I would like to ask is if there is any new news concerning 379s and if they are going to another rail operator.

 

[Mamorin]

So far there is no new operator for the 379s.

However according to the august issue of Modern Railways GWR are looking at the 379s, however this is only because the GWR 387s are undergoing a "market testing exercise".

So GWR could/may take the 379s, but only if they are cheeper than 387s.

 

[Class 466]

So far there is no new operator for the 379s.

However according to the august issue of Modern Railways GWR are looking at the 379s, however this is only because the GWR 387s are undergoing a "market testing exercise".

So GWR could/may take the 379s, but only if they are cheeper than 387s.

Logically speaking there’s a much bigger market for the 387s than the 379s.

 

[JonathanH]

Logically speaking there’s a much bigger market for the 387s than the 379s.

Yes, but only if the DfT provide funding for an operator to lease a larger trainfleet. It isn't as if there is going to be a 'bidding war' for 387s, and I dont believe that the DfT authorising a new lease for the 379s is going to pay for itself through increased custom.

 

[RobShipway]

Logically speaking there’s a much bigger market for the 387s than the 379s.

The 6 C2C 387's are going to Great Northern, who will then be releasing the 8 GatEx livery to Southern I believe. So the only question is what is happening with the class 379 units?

Yes, but only if the DfT provide funding for an operator to lease a larger trainfleet. It isn't as if there is going to be a 'bidding war' for 387s, and I dont believe that the DfT authorising a new lease for the 379s is going to pay for itself through increased custom.

There is not going to be a bidding war for the 387's as I believe that they have already been spoken for and if anything I am pretty sure that they will end up with both or either Southern & South Eastren TOC's to help cascade down replacements for class 313 and class 465 units.

 

[Mamorin]

So the only question is what is happening with the class 379 units?

So far nothing is happening with the 379s. Some units have been moved to Ilford, but I think that is only for exam work but no new operator has been announced.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Aug 2022 ==

There is not going to be a bidding war for the 387's as I believe that they have already been spoken for and if anything I am pretty sure that they will end up with both or either Southern & South Eastren TOC's to help cascade down replacements for class 313 and class 465 units.

The GWR 387s undergoing a "market testing exercise" is not about them going elsewhere, it’s just GWR trying to get the cost of the 387s down.

So the GWR 387s will most likely be staying with GWR.

 

[brad465]

There is not going to be a bidding war for the 387's as I believe that they have already been spoken for and if anything I am pretty sure that they will end up with both or either Southern & South Eastern TOC's to help cascade down replacements for class 313 and class 465 units.

How many different micro-fleets do Southeastern want? They have 375s, 376s, 377s, 395s, 465/466s and 707s, and current talk/plans include half of the 23x 377s at SE going back to Southern and the remaining 707s coming in will help cover for them. Southeastern may accept 387s if it means all of the 377s going back to Southern, but I don't see why they should continue watering down the 465 numbers through multiple micro-fleets; their fleet size can only realistically be replaced through either a very large cascade of another class type (unlikely), or a full new fleet coming in, which doesn't look imminent.

 

[Mikey C]

How many different micro-fleets do Southeastern want? They have 375s, 376s, 377s, 395s, 465/466s and 707s, and current talk/plans include half of the 23x 377s at SE going back to Southern and the remaining 707s coming in will help cover for them. Southeastern may accept 387s if it means all of the 377s going back to Southern, but I don't see why they should continue watering down the 465 numbers through multiple micro-fleets; their fleet size can only realistically be replaced through either a very large cascade of another class type (unlikely), or a full new fleet coming in, which doesn't look imminent.

We have an unfortunate situation where certain operators had extravagant comprehensive replacement programmes, leaving the others to inherit the displaced stock.

Off topic I still question the fleet mix between Southeastern and Southern, where Southern will be running outer suburban 377s on South London commuter routes, while Southeastern sends Networkers out to Ashford.

 

[brad465]

We have an unfortunate situation where certain operators had extravagant comprehensive replacement programmes, leaving the others to inherit the displaced stock.

Off topic I still question the fleet mix between Southeastern and Southern, where Southern will be running outer suburban 377s on South London commuter routes, while Southeastern sends Networkers out to Ashford.

GWRs 387s behave in a similar way to Networkers with SE, in that 387s run stoppers to Didcot and Newbury, but also they can do faster services to Bristol and Cardiff where required.

While on paper it looks like 379s would be usable with GWR, I suspect GWR like the 387's 110mph capability in order to run aforementioned faster services. Unless of course 379s were upgradable like the 360s, but then that's another expense on top of high lease costs.

 

[Mamorin]

Unless of course 379s were upgradable like the 360s, but then that's another expense on top of high lease costs.

High leasing costs of the 379s and an upgrade to them may cost more than the 387s cost to lease. Meaning GWR would not want the 379s in that case.

 

[43102EMR]

GWRs 387s behave in a similar way to Networkers with SE, in that 387s run stoppers to Didcot and Newbury, but also they can do faster services to Bristol and Cardiff where required.

While on paper it looks like 379s would be usable with GWR, I suspect GWR like the 387's 110mph capability in order to run aforementioned faster services. Unless of course 379s were upgradable like the 360s, but then that's another expense on top of high lease costs.

The upgrade would be fairly simple to do, especially as the 379s were used as a test bed for the 110mph capability used on the 387s.

 

[brad465]

Has it been explained before why 379s specifically have high lease costs? If no-one takes them on anytime soon then scrap may end up being the only option, which would be a PR disaster if the tabloids deem it to be worthy of reporting considering they're only 10-12 years old, especially if overcrowding becomes a widespread problem again in future (I know there's more than meets the eye in the world of train operations/capabilities, but perception matters a lot).

 

[Sutton in Ant]

Has it been explained before why 379s specifically have high lease costs? If no-one takes them on anytime soon then scrap may end up being the only option, which would be a PR disaster if the tabloids deem it to be worthy of reporting considering they're only 10-12 years old, especially if overcrowding becomes a widespread problem again in future (I know there's more than meets the eye in the world of train operations/capabilities, but perception matters a lot).

Well. It is the owners of the rolling stock Akiem to explain why.

 

[Bald Rick]

Has it been explained before why 379s specifically have high lease costs?

They were bought when the ’credit crunch’ happened which bumped up the borrowing costs (which is effectively what leases are).

Also - and this is purely speculation on my part - when NXEA bought them they included very strict deadlines for delivery and acceptance in the tender, with (presumably) stiff penalties to match. This will have caused Bombardier (as was) to price that in to their manufacturing process. As it happens, the first one was delivered bang on the date it was scheduled in the contract, and I think the last one was delivered ahead of schedule.

 

[brad465]

They were bought when the ’credit crunch’ happened which bumped up the borrowing costs (which is effectively what leases are).

Also - and this is purely speculation on my part - when NXEA bought them they included very strict deadlines for delivery and acceptance in the tender, with (presumably) stiff penalties to match. This will have caused Bombardier (as was) to price that in to their manufacturing process. As it happens, the first one was delivered bang on the date it was scheduled in the contract, and I think the last one was delivered ahead of schedule.

I did wonder if it was credit crunch related, but at the same time believed that lease costs could change with time and different market conditions. Perhaps they could be the first trains to be scrapped because of Bank of England policy

 

[Sutton in Ant]

Well. I think that I hope that the 379's don't end up like the 365s. Scrapped too early. I think it would be a travesty.

 

[Mamorin]

The 365s are a different story to the 379s. With the 365s it was a case of TOC wanted them, with the 379s it’s a case of the leasing cost is too high for any TOC to have them.

If the 379s don’t have a home by next February at the latest I can see the 379s being scrapped.

 

[AzureOtsu]

The 365s are a different story to the 379s. With the 365s it was a case of TOC wanted them, with the 379s it’s a case of the leasing cost is too high for any TOC to have them.

If the 379s don’t have a home by next February at the latest I can see the 379s being scrapped.

Realistically there's little possibility of these units being scrapped, unless the leasing company goes into damage control but that would cause public outcry. there are far older units in storage such as class 465s and Class 319s. These units aren't purpose built, have the potential to be converted to 3rd rail units (based on the modular electrostar design, and thus have compatibility with every line that electrostar stock has been cleared to run on.

If I were in control I'd convert these units to 100mph running, stick shoes on them and reclassify them as 387/4s

 

[Bletchleyite]

Realistically there's little possibility of these units being scrapped, unless the leasing company goes into damage control but that would cause public outcry. there are far older units in storage such as class 465s and Class 319s. These units aren't purpose built, have the potential to be converted to 3rd rail units (based on the modular electrostar design, and thus have compatibility with every line that electrostar stock has been cleared to run on.

If I were in control I'd convert these units to 100mph running, stick shoes on them and reclassify them as 387/4s

Southern need a few more Electrostars to allow the 313s to be binned off. Either some of these or a three-way swap with GWR are the obvious way to do this - I can't see any other sensible way, 350/2s would be a microfleet and the 313s are past it, and there's not a lot more to sensibly cut to do it that way.

 

[Mamorin]

Southern need a few more Electrostars to allow the 313s

Aren't Southern are getting some more Elctrostars from Southeastern? That should allow for the 313s to be binned.

So Southern don’t seem to need the 379s.

 

[JonathanH]

Words such as travesty and waste are simply ridiculous. If the 379s get scrapped so be it. They are simply sophisticated bits of metal, glass and plastic that can be recycled into something else. Terrible from an environmental perspective but that is about the only issue.

 

[bramling]

The 365s are a different story to the 379s. With the 365s it was a case of TOC wanted them, with the 379s it’s a case of the leasing cost is too high for any TOC to have them.

If the 379s don’t have a home by next February at the latest I can see the 379s being scrapped.

The interesting question seems to be to what extent leasing companies are prepared to drop the lease charge to rock-bottom levels. So far they seem to be avoiding doing this, and indeed sending out the message that they would rather scrap stock. Is this impression correct?

There are some hints being dropped that WFH is expected to significantly reduce over the winter, partly as part of the natural process which has been going on ever since the first lockdown ended, and partly as people attempt to avoid having to heat their homes through the day. This could see some significant overcrowding if people travel in the traditional peaks.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The interesting question seems to be to what extent leasing companies are prepared to drop the lease charge to rock-bottom levels. So far they seem to be avoiding doing this, and indeed sending out the message that they would rather scrap stock. Is this impression correct?

It's kind of surprising that the idiotic debacle surrounding the Class 350/2s didn't teach a few people a lesson. Those units could and should have stayed with LNR, they are absolutely fine at what they do and are well liked - yes even the 3+2 isn't hated universally, families and groups like it.

 

[Mamorin]

The interesting question seems to be to what extent leasing companies are prepared to drop the lease charge to rock-bottom levels. So far they seem to be avoiding doing this, and indeed sending out the message that they would rather scrap stock. Is this impression correct?

I would say your impression is correct.

 

[bramling]

It's kind of surprising that the idiotic debacle surrounding the Class 350/2s didn't teach a few people a lesson. Those units could and should have stayed with LNR, they are absolutely fine at what they do and are well liked - yes even the 3+2 isn't hated universally, families and groups like it.

LNWR seems to be the one which has caused much of the problem. It would have been entirely satisfactory to concentrate the 323s in Birmingham and the 350s on the WCML, with the latter being topped up with the 360s. The West Mids franchise had done okay previously with new stock in the form of the 350s themselves and the 172s (not to mention getting the better end of the Central Trains split in the form of a substantial 170 fleet), so no political imperative to go for “shiny new trains”.

This would then have opened up a few options for some of the other EMU fleets as well.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 31 Aug 2022 ==

I would say your impression is correct.

In which case the system is resulting in stock being scrapped in order to maintain / prop up the leasing charges for other fleets. It’s hard to see that being to anyone’s benefit except the leasing companies.

 

[Mamorin]

Words such as travesty and waste are simply ridiculous.

No it’s not ridiculous when there are BR Era EMUs that are much older that are still in service.

I might get some slack for this but I do wish Northern could take the 379s to replace their ageing 319s and 323s.

Of course the 379s would need a refurb before being sent to Northern.

I will point out I know Northern will never get the 379s it’s just a wish is all.