Future of Class 379

[Minstral25]

The 35 387s does not cover the gaping and expanding hole the 455s and 313s are leaving. The 387s working fine on GN isn't the problem, it's the lack of

What "Gaping and Expanding hole" - It has been well and truly filled by timetable changes and reduction in train lengths, most of which have caused little issue to the majority of passengers. I think we have to reluctantly accept GTR have made costs savings required by DfT in a very efficient manner and the new timetable will be it. Lets hope DfT do not demand more cuts.

The 19 313's will in due course be replaced by 12 377/5s operating more efficiently - rarely more than 11 313s out most days so 11 from 12 377/5s added to a larger standard pool of stock just about covers it.

 

[43074]

I suspect that Great Northern now isn't going to happen, despite being the original destination identified for the units. The 387s are working fine on the route and they have brought in the extra c2c units to get the desired fleet of 35 units.

I suspect it is also likely that the 379s would have lost their current first class area if they had found a use. That will change the view on whether they are better suited to long distance services.

Scrap is definitely possible for the 379s because they aren't needed.

The desired fleet size on GN is not 35 units though, as bear in mind things like the Baldock (Cambridge in the ECML recast) & Peterborough peak services aren't running and there isn't really scope within the 35 unit allocation to reinstate those. And they are expected to make a comeback in some form regardless of the full ECML recast being deferred.

 

[JonathanH]

The desired fleet size on GN is not 35 units though, as bear in mind things like the Baldock (Cambridge in the ECML recast) & Peterborough peak services aren't running and there isn't really scope within the 35 unit allocation to reinstate those. And they are expected to make a comeback in some form regardless of the full ECML recast being deferred.

Where is it stated that those peak services from Baldock and Peterborough are expected to come back? There is a new timetable and whether services ran historically is irrelevant.

Isn't the new base timetable focused around 35/36 units rather than the timetable that used to run? Surely, only a significant uplift in revenue or overcrowding is going to bring any cancelled services back, not just sentiment that they 'ought to return because they ran before March 2020'.

On the Southern side, there are peak extra services, such as Caterham / Tattenham Corner to London Victoria that I would have thought are equally gone forever, not just waiting for the DfT to authorise additional rolling stock.

 

[Minstral25]

Where is it stated that those peak services from Baldock and Peterborough are expected to come back? There is a new timetable and whether services ran historically is irrelevant.

Isn't the new base timetable focused around 35/36 units rather than the timetable that used to run? Surely, only a significant uplift in revenue or overcrowding is going to bring any cancelled services back, not just sentiment that they 'ought to return because they ran before March 2020'.

On the Southern side, there are peak extra services, such as Caterham / Tattenham Corner to London Victoria that I would have thought are equally gone forever, not just waiting for the DfT to authorise additional rolling stock.

Agree - I think the biggest concern is further reductions as this Government is intent on reducing costs with no concern about the service that remains. Any Peak extras are probably lost for a very long time now.

No rail operator will be currently planning to add Peak extras back and will be actively removing them where they can.

 

[43074]

Where is it stated that those peak services from Baldock and Peterborough are expected to come back? There is a new timetable and whether services ran historically is irrelevant.

Isn't the new base timetable focused around 35/36 units rather than the timetable that used to run? Surely, only a significant uplift in revenue or overcrowding is going to bring any cancelled services back, not just sentiment that they 'ought to return because they ran before March 2020'.

On the Southern side, there are peak extra services, such as Caterham / Tattenham Corner to London Victoria that I would have thought are equally gone forever, not just waiting for the DfT to authorise additional rolling stock.

As far as GN is concerned it's a bit of a stretch to call it a new timetable. Come December with midweek 12-cars on peak Cambridge & Peterborough fasts GN 387 utilisation will be much more stretched. Evidence for this is the linked ECS which runs TWThO: https://www.realtimetrains.co.uk/service/gb-nr:C14692/2022-12-14/detailed

Edit - also worth saying the peak Cambridge & Peterborough services were in the Consultation for the ECML TT in August last year (i.e. after March 2020), which whilst deferred is still expected to take place.

 

[Domh245]

Agree - I think the biggest concern is further reductions as this Government is intent on reducing costs with no concern about the service that remains. Any Peak extras are probably lost for a very long time now.

My biggest concern is the medium term, where it's far from certain that demand will remain surpressed, additional stock will be required, and there's no electrostars available, either all being in use or shredded several years since.

That hypothetical doesn't justify leasing them now and running services around with masses of excess capacity, but it should give some food for thought to the DfT to incentivise the ROSCO to keep storing them

 

[43096]

My biggest concern is the medium term, where it's far from certain that demand will remain surpressed, additional stock will be required, and there's no electrostars available, either all being in use or shredded several years since.

It's also far from certain that the demand will ever return, particularly in the weekday peaks. The railway offers exceptionally poor value for many people and it is no longer a necessity to use that service for many.

That hypothetical doesn't justify leasing them now and running services around with masses of excess capacity, but it should give some food for thought to the DfT to incentivise the ROSCO to keep storing them

What are you expecting the DfT to do? Pay to store stock on the off-chance it is needed? Not going to happen as a) DfT is looking to take cost out rather than paying speculatively for trains it may never need and b) isn't managing this risk what the ROSCOs are there for?

 

[JonathanH]

My biggest concern is the medium term, where it's far from certain that demand will remain surpressed, additional stock will be required, and there's no electrostars available, either all being in use or shredded several years since.

I'm not so sure about a medium term issue. Southeastern Networker replacement in the early 2030s will be the opportunity to reassess the needs of the Southern Region operators. If necessary, the fleet order could be structured to allow some transfer of 37x from Southeastern to Southern at that time, especially if Southeastern still have 11 377/5s in their fleet at that point.

That hypothetical doesn't justify leasing them now and running services around with masses of excess capacity, but it should give some food for thought to the DfT to incentivise the ROSCO to keep storing them

Indeed, it doesn't justify running them as excess capacity. However, even with modern stock a long period of storage will mean the units deteriorate. That said, some of GWR's potential 769s haven't carried passengers for five years, and are expected to go back into service.

 

[brad465]

Thus I can't see 379s or 350/2s being needed directly or indirectly at Southern in the near term. Suspect now that both could end up either at SouthEastern or creating a cascade to SouthEastern, that will replace a big chunk of the 465s. Just need DfT to agree to pay for 3rd Rail shoes.

Southeastern have enough micro-fleets as it is and what you describe won't be enough to allow all 465s to be withdrawn, especially as Southern wanting half of SE's 377s back has averted some more 465s going into storage imminently.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Southeastern have enough micro-fleets as it is and what you describe won't be enough to allow all 465s to be withdrawn, especially as Southern wanting half of SE's 377s back has averted some more 465s going into storage imminently.

SE at least already have a Siemens fleet. Though my inkling is still that they'll end up at Northern and a load of 323s will be scrapped instead.

 

[Energy]

SE at least already have a Siemens fleet. Though my inkling is still that they'll end up at Northern and a load of 323s will be scrapped instead.

Same ROSCO and the 319s which were originally replacing Northern's 319s are 4x20m. By the time the 730s finally enter service Porterbrook will have gotten some decent use out of the PRM and TrainFX mods.

 

[43102EMR]

SE at least already have a Siemens fleet. Though my inkling is still that they'll end up at Northern and a load of 323s will be scrapped instead.

They won’t end up with Northern - they’ve already stated they’re trying to eliminate the amount of micro fleets they have to the extent they were considering ditching the 333s for more 331s, so I doubt adding 379s or 350/2s into the mix is going to be something they want.

 

[RobShipway]

They won’t end up with Northern - they’ve already stated they’re trying to eliminate the amount of micro fleets they have to the extent they were considering ditching the 333s for more 331s, so I doubt adding 379s or 350/2s into the mix is going to be something they want.

I am presuming that you are meaning 323's for more 331s in your post, which I would agree, will occur at some point. However, from point of order to delivery can take up to 3 years and passengers need to be on trains in the meantime, so I reckon that the 323's will be around for the next 6 years with Northern.

The class 707's will remain at South Eastern and if anything they will take on the 350/2's I would suspect to be replacing class 465 units, just they feel they need the stock. I doubt that the class 379's will end up at South Eastern.

My biggest concern is the medium term, where it's far from certain that demand will remain surpressed, additional stock will be required, and there's no electrostars available, either all being in use or shredded several years since.

That hypothetical doesn't justify leasing them now and running services around with masses of excess capacity, but it should give some food for thought to the DfT to incentivise the ROSCO to keep storing them

I have to agree with the above. If the 379's do not go to either Great Northern or GWR, then they will either need to be kept stored in the hope that within the next let say two years, that demand increases back to pre - Covid levels or unfortunately face being scrapped. keeping 30 units stored though, I suspect is costing the Rosco a lot of money.

The only other avenue I can possibly see for the class 379 units, is if there is a possibility of short term hire to say Scotrail, who will require battery electric multiple units in 2024.

 

[Jturner98]

There’s a few 379s at Ilford at the moment. This is to repair any defects on them so they are in good condition for when they are returned to the leasing company. Once they are returned they are heading somewhere for storage but I can’t remember where.

 

[61653 HTAFC]

I am presuming that you are meaning 323's for more 331s in your post, which I would agree, will occur at some point. However, from point of order to delivery can take up to 3 years and passengers need to be on trains in the meantime, so I reckon that the 323's will be around for the next 6 years with Northern.

I think that poster actually meant to type what they typed, though it would be an easy typo to make. There's been rumours before about the 333s not being the in the best of shape in terms of corrosion and fatigue, so it wouldn't be the craziest idea...

However if such a thing were to happen, it probably wouldn't involve the 379s in any way. Just a further build of 331s, probably enough to see off both the 323s and 333s.

 

[317 forever]

No it’s not ridiculous when there are BR Era EMUs that are much older that are still in service.

I might get some slack for this but I do wish Northern could take the 379s to replace their ageing 319s and 323s.

Of course the 379s would need a refurb before being sent to Northern.

I will point out I know Northern will never get the 379s it’s just a wish is all.

If anything, I'd like Northern to take class 350/2s to replace 319s and 323s on the Liverpool - Warrington / Manchester via Huyton lines. This would look good alongside 350s from Liverpool to Birmingham.

 

[Mamorin]

SE at least already have a Siemens fleet. Though my inkling is still that they'll end up at Northern and a load of 323s will be scrapped instead.

Sending the 350/2s to Northern would be a good idea as there is enough of them to replace both Northern’s 323 and 319 fleets.

However I can’t see this happening, I think Northern will get more 331s to replace their 323 fleet. Although 379s or 350/2 would be a nice replacement for the 323s.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 1 Oct 2022 ==

or more 331s in your post, which I would agree, will occur at some point. However, from point of order to delivery can take up to 3 years and passengers need to be on trains in the meantime, so I reckon that the 323's will be around for the next 6 years with Northern.

323s most likely have at least until 2029 before Northern even look at replacing them.

 

[JonathanH]

Sending the 350/2s to Northern would be a good idea as there is enough of them to replace both Northern’s 323 and 319 fleets.

Sending 350/2s to Northern is bad idea because it means more traincrew training which isn't affordable at the moment.

The 323s don't need replacement right now. Northern are expecting to get some more once WMR don't need them. The interesting question is how they will be distributed to avoid the need to train too many staff on them who don't currently work them.

Nothing to do with 379s though.

 

[RailWonderer]

Sending 350/2s to Northern is bad idea because it means more traincrew training which isn't affordable at the moment.

The 323s don't need replacement right now. Northern are expecting to get some more once WMR don't need them. The interesting question is how they will be distributed to avoid the need to train too many staff on them who don't currently work them.

Nothing to do with 379s though.

Southeastern got the 707s, and no one out there drove or maintained Desiro stock before they were sent there. It makes most sense if Northern got them, and the 350/2s could even be maintained alongside the 185s. The 323s don't have much of a future and have a few years left, they are 30 years old already and the 319s are practically life expired. The 350/2s are 15 years old and have easily another 20 years left. With leasing costs set to rise over the next year, you might find that the cost of cascading will become cheaper than ordering new and suddenly this rolling stock sitting on the sides becomes the better alternative.

 

[Mamorin]

With leasing costs set to rise over the next year, you might find that the cost of cascading will become cheaper than ordering new and suddenly this rolling stock sitting on the sides becomes the better alternative.

It’s not just leasing costs that are going to rise, but so are the costs of ordering new trains, Northern are already seeing this with their hybrid 195 plan.

So you are right soon the cost of cascading units will be cheeper than ordering new trains. I feel like we could see the 379s and 350/2s find new homes. (Given the high leasing costs on the 379s the idea of them finding a new home is unbelievable).

323s will be replaced at some point it just depends on how expensive new trains are becoming compared to cascading younger rolling stock in storage.

 

[Neptune]

Southeastern got the 707s, and no one out there drove or maintained Desiro stock before they were sent there. It makes most sense if Northern got them,

And still people don’t get that Northern want to run pairs of 23m 3 car units to make 6 car trains as has been mentioned more times than I care to remember. Nowhere do 20m 4 car 350’s or 379’s fit into this.

and the 350/2s could even be maintained alongside the 185s.

Is there space at Ardwick for 37 350’s to be maintained?

The 323s don't have much of a future and have a few years left, they are 30 years old already and the 319s are practically life expired.

The 323’s from WMT are coming to replace the 319’s so the fact you say that they are practically life expired (I take it you are a 319 engineer and know this personally) it is irrelevant as they are going anyway.

The 350/2s are 15 years old and have easily another 20 years left. With leasing costs set to rise over the next year, you might find that the cost of cascading will become cheaper than ordering new and suddenly this rolling stock sitting on the sides becomes the better alternative.

Maybe that’s true but why Northern when they don’t fit in whatsoever with what the plans for the fleet. It seems that every few months someone comes up with a ‘great idea’ for 350/2 or 379 to transfer to Northern either ignoring or not caring about the fact that this is far away from Northern‘s actual plans.

Sleep, eat, repeat and hope for a different answer from last time.

Just because the hybrid 195’s didn’t happen doesn’t mean to say that in future 16x4 car and 34x3 car 331’s can be ordered to eventually replace the 323 and 333 fleet to sensibly create a single EMU type which actually was mentioned somewhere last year.

 

[Mamorin]

And still people don’t get that Northern want to run pairs of 23m 3 car units to make 6 car trains as has been mentioned more times than I care to remember.

I understand that is still the plan, since no different has ever been even rumoured. However there have been many plans with the 323s before and none of them ever happened.

All I know is the 323s will never, ever be replaced by 379s.

 

[Snow1964]

A voice of reason!

In case anyone is in any doubt, revenue on the railway is still at around 80% of pre-pandemic levels, particularly affected by season ticket revenue decline around London. From that it is obvious that either revenue needs to go up quickly or substantial amounts of cost needs to be taken out. With the former not happening, it’s cost that needs to come out and that means fewer trains.

The real problem is now starting to show up, and DfT is having a problem with it, basically there is no more 5 day busy trains, but midweek is getting busy again.

Unfortunately it is only observation evidence, not a day by day breakdown. These 80% figures are averaged over the week, it would mask something like 50%, 105%, 90%, 110%, 30% over the 5 weekdays.

Of course if DfT wants to cut costs, probably needs to operate Saturday timetables on Fridays, and possibly Mondays. But this hasn’t happened. But if it does will be even more demand for keep old stock for the peak hour extras on Tuesday-Thursday as trains only used for few hours a week will be costly if not using written down stock with low lease.

The DfT could cover its back by introducing rules to stop stock under say 30 years old from being scrapped unless out of use for at least 3 years, excluding short term rentals. That way renting it and using it short term (and 379s are ideal examples) won’t just be stored pending scrapping

 

[43102EMR]

Southeastern got the 707s, and no one out there drove or maintained Desiro stock before they were sent there. It makes most sense if Northern got them, and the 350/2s could even be maintained alongside the 185s. The 323s don't have much of a future and have a few years left, they are 30 years old already and the 319s are practically life expired. The 350/2s are 15 years old and have easily another 20 years left. With leasing costs set to rise over the next year, you might find that the cost of cascading will become cheaper than ordering new and suddenly this rolling stock sitting on the sides becomes the better alternative.

Because this needs to be clarified for the I don’t know how many’eth time…

Northern will not be taking on the 350/2s, 379s etc. - the only EMU cascades occurring with them will be the 323s from WMR, and that’s it. It has been mentioned time and time again that they are looking for fleet standardisation, and if anything will look at ordering further CAF stock. Not to mention they’re 4 carriages in length, which makes multiple workings difficult in terms of platform lengths etc.

Anyways, back on topic - has anything since been mentioned re the future of the 379s?

 

[Bald Rick]

These 80% figures are averaged over the week, it would mask something like 50%, 105%, 90%, 110%, 30% over the 5 weekdays.

It’s more like 75% 81% 81% 81% 82% as it happens.

 

[JonathanH]

The DfT could cover its back by introducing rules to stop stock under say 30 years old from being scrapped unless out of use for at least 3 years, excluding short term rentals. That way renting it and using it short term (and 379s are ideal examples) won’t just be stored pending scrapping

Not the DfTs problem. It won't become the DfT's problem until someone asks a question in parliament about out of use trains and probably won't even become one then. I can't find any reference to the 379s in Hansard.

Anyways, back on topic - has anything since been mentioned re the future of the 379s?

No.

GWR issued a tended for heavy maintenance work on its 387s at the end of August suggesting that they are staying in place.
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2022/W35/781778989

Description
The current heavy maintenance requirements are a combination of mileage and time based events and it is proposed to align these into a weeklong single event for each unit. It should be assumed that one unit will be out of service at any one time for this programme.

This project shall be carried out as a turnkey solution, with the scope of work including; engineering design/approvals, project management, parts supply (limited scope of consumables only), overhaul and installation activities, logistics and approvals.

Total Quantity or Scope
First Greater Western Limited are seeking expressions of interest for the scheduled heavy maintenance of its Fleet of 45 x Class 387 Electric Multiple units.

…

A summary of the heavy maintenance jobs can be found via the link provided in this notice.

…

The heavy maintenance works will be carried out off-site at the Supplier's location. The Supplier will be responsible for vehicle movements between Reading Tran Care Depot and the Supplier's works facility. The Supplier must have a stringent in-house quality control system and a thorough competence management system.

It is anticipated that the heavy maintenance programme will start May 2023, with a completion date of no later than July 2024.

 

[43102EMR]

No.

GWR issued a tended for heavy maintenance work on its 387s at the end of August suggesting that they are staying in place.
https://bidstats.uk/tenders/2022/W35/781778989

Reasonable to assume the market test exercise on the 379s was not deemed feasible from a cost and operational perspective vice keeping the 387s if that’s the case.

 

[Mamorin]

That is indeed reasonable to assume. I was wondering what had happened with that market test exercise.

 

[Neptune]

However there have been many plans with the 323s before and none of them ever happened.

The only change of plan I can think of is the original intention to replace them in the ARN franchise with 319’s but when it was announced that the WMR 323’s were to be replaced, then ARN changed their plans and chose to do away with the 319’s instead and boost the 323 fleet to allow 6 car working.

That’s only 1 change rather than many unless my ageing memory has holes in it.

 

[Mamorin]

There was another plan, the one where in the 2010s Northern Rail would replace their 323 fleet.

Talk of this can be found here:

Congleton crash

Seriously, is that news report correct, Metroland? Only 30 passengers on a rush hour train? :shock: Past Macclesfield though so yeah - likely to be a correct number.

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