Future Metrolink Expansion

[miami]

I recall around 2006 when GMPTE got a front page spread on the Metros distributed in the Manchester area to show the future Metrolink network map if the congestion charge went ahead, showing lines to places including Leigh and The Trafford Centre.

Leigh they went for a bus instead. Trafford centre will probably come in a few years.

 

[Altfish]

2m a year. How long to pay back its capital costs from its takings minus inflation/interest, running costs, maintenance and cyclicals? 100 years? More? Ever?

It will pay it back; but does public transport have to make a profit?
It takes cars off the road and makes the environment more pleasant for all - isn't that a great payback?

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

It will pay it back; but does public transport have to make a profit? It takes cars off the road and makes the environment more pleasant for all - isn't that a great payback?

I wonder how a Treasury official would compose an answer to your premise above.

 

[tsangpogorge]

Ok thanks for all your replies, good to hear that even before 2cc is complete the service is being utilised and steadily increasing in popularity too. My second question is regarding the long street running sections prevalent on both the Ashton and airport routes and its impact on other road users. With extra vehicles using the road and more stop signals for places where the tram lines cross major thoroughfares surely the traffic situation in East Manchester and Wythenshawe has gotten worse, even back in 2006 'tram jams' in the city centre were a familiar sight at peak times. This is a topic about further expansion of the network so this issue is definitely worth considering.

 

[WatcherZero]

2m a year. How long to pay back its capital costs from its takings minus inflation/interest, running costs, maintenance and cyclicals? 100 years? More? Ever?

They borrowed 62% of the cost with 26% from the annual dft grant, and the rest from council tax and a £50m contribution from the airport. BCR for the scheme is 2.16 on a build, operate and maintain 30 year appraisal by the National Audit Office.

So that would mean payback of 13.9 years according to budget. Its currently running 3.2% ahead of budget despite the impact of closures for construction works so around 13.5 years with greater acceleration in passenger growth to be expected once 2CC construction works completed.

 

[Altfish]

My second question is regarding the long street running sections prevalent on both the Ashton and airport routes and its impact on other road users. With extra vehicles using the road and more stop signals for places where the tram lines cross major thoroughfares surely the traffic situation in East Manchester and Wythenshawe has gotten worse, even back in 2006 'tram jams' in the city centre were a familiar sight at peak times. This is a topic about further expansion of the network so this issue is definitely worth considering.

Most of the Wythenshawe/Airport line is off road, the sections on road are not on particularly busy roads and even then the stations are off-road.
The Ashton line has more street running but again all stops are off-road and it seems to work fine.

 

[edwin_m]

Most of the Wythenshawe/Airport line is off road, the sections on road are not on particularly busy roads and even then the stations are off-road.
The Ashton line has more street running but again all stops are off-road and it seems to work fine.

The Ashton line uses Ashton New Road, which has been downgraded with through traffic encouraged to use Ashton Old Road instead.

 

[snowball]

The Ashton line uses Ashton New Road, which has been downgraded with through traffic encouraged to use Ashton Old Road instead.

I hadn't heard of any specific downgrading of Ashton New Road in relation to the construction of the Metrolink line, but Ashton Old Road has been the "primary route" to Ashton ever since the introduction of green-backed direction signs in the 1960s following the Worboys Report.

Indeed I think Metrolink has so far avoided any on-street running on primary routes.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Most of the Wythenshawe/Airport line is off road, the sections on road are not on particularly busy roads and even then the stations are off-road.

I would take issue with you concerning the actual length of street running opposed to the dedicated Metrolink route on Hollyhedge Road, as that road is generally viewed as a busy main connectional road that carries bus services in addition to other road traffic.

 

[Altfish]

I would take issue with you concerning the actual length of street running opposed to the dedicated Metrolink route on Hollyhedge Road, as that road is generally viewed as a busy main connectional road that carries bus services in addition to other road traffic.

Paul,
I still maintain that the trams do not adversely affect the traffic on the section of that road that it runs down. There are no stops on the street section and the running is always on the correct side of the road, i.e. it runs with the traffic. So it is no worse that two buses nose to tail.

 

[nerd]

It will pay it back; but does public transport have to make a profit?
It takes cars off the road and makes the environment more pleasant for all - isn't that a great payback?

In principle your point is sound Altfish; and across much of continental Europe general public transport subsidy has been regarded as normal - both for operation and capital assessement (heavy rail metro operations being invariably subsidised, but that is commonly justified from national policy persepectives - such systems being muchmore common in capital cities).

But in practice - and within the specific public service environment of the UK - transport systems that demonstrate a positive pay-back (and which generate an operating surplus) have proved much easier to expand and develop. On which compare the variant experiences of Tyneside and Nottingham.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

In principle your point is sound Altfish; and across much of continental Europe general public transport subsidy has been regarded as normal - both for operation and capital assessement (heavy rail metro operations being invariably subsidised, but that is commonly justified from national policy persepectives - such systems being muchmore common in capital cities).

How much difference do you see between the Continental subsidy methodology that you state above and the normally accepted matter seen in Britain. A viewing of rail franchises in Britain commencing from the start of the 21st century sees a widely differing scenario with regards to the need for subsidy.

 

[nerd]

How much difference do you see between the Continental subsidy methodology that you state above and the normally accepted matter seen in Britain. A viewing of rail franchises in Britain commencing from the start of the 21st century sees a widely differing scenario with regards to the need for subsidy.

The terms of debate on public transport subsidy are carried on as a continually shifting discourse across Europe, both in the UK and elsewhere. For example, looking at national rail policy in Britain, the whole debate is skewed by the issue of legacy infrastructure. Almost all 19th century railway lines were built without any form of foundation, ground preparation or subsuface invetigation; we have assumed that they have remained in place for 175 years - so they will remain for ever. But we are now finding climate changes factors leading to serious interruption of long-standing infrastructure; but who pays the cost, and how is it allocated across individual services?

So, to be specific, the HS2 network would almost certainly make a commercial profit sufficient to pay back its cost - if it were run as a stand-alone system. The reason for its rather more modest BCR assessment is thats these must also factor-in disbeneftis to the legacy rai network. And no government could allow a profitable limited-destsination high-speed network to force the wider intercity network into bankruptcy.

This is less of an issue though for urban transit systems; most of which use substantially new-build infrastructure - and where cross-allocation disbenfits across city regions do not apply.

 

[edwin_m]

Will those who are posting about income exceeding costs (or not) please be clear about what costs they are referring to? This could variously be the direct operating cost (crews, fuel/power, track access) or include leasing costs or contribution to repaying the capital cost of the vehicle and/or infrastructure. Which of these is being discussed makes a huge difference to the answer.

 

[WatcherZero]

NAO uses build-operate-maintain for the financial assessments. That is all the costs incurred in construction and operation over a 30 year period including cost of finance.

According to the transport authorities budget for the next year published this month they have £0.84m to spend on other things this year because of metrolink revenue exceeding the budgeted requirement.
http://www.transportforgreatermanch...171/item_07_transport_levy_budget_2016-17.pdf

 

[nerd]

Will those who are posting about income exceeding costs (or not) please be clear about what costs they are referring to? This could variously be the direct operating cost (crews, fuel/power, track access) or include leasing costs or contribution to repaying the capital cost of the vehicle and/or infrastructure. Which of these is being discussed makes a huge difference to the answer.

In respect of Metrolink, costs for the current system are fairly clearly defined; effectively costs for design, build, equip, operate, maintain. As TfGM owns almost all the current infrastructure; plus the vehicles; their costs are directly attributed, as will their maintenance. In respect of the operating contract, TfGM will be paying a facility fee to the operator - which will conver the costs for wages etc.

The future; with tram-train in prospect, is trickier - as there may well then be substantial tram services run over Network Rail infrastructure, or vice versa.

Much more problematic is the categorisation of payments in. As I understand it, TfGM effectively treat the basic Treasury contribution to Metrolink expansion (£520m)as a free-good; as also the third party contributions from Manchester Airport. So when TfGM say (as they do) that revenue growth is currently ahead of budget financing requirements, what they are saying is that there is sufficient income (including concessionary travel income) to cover operational costs (facility fees, fuel/power, maintenance) and also repay the 'funded' element of the costs of vehicles and infrastructure. Which apparently it does.

 

[fandroid]

But in practice - and within the specific public service environment of the UK - transport systems that demonstrate a positive pay-back (and which generate an operating surplus) have proved much easier to expand and develop. On which compare the variant experiences of Tyneside and Nottingham.

I'm a bit puzzled by your comparisons. Tyne & Wear Metro was a fairly extensive system when it first opened, whereas Nottingham's was only one line from the city centre with a short branch. IIRC the Tyne & Wear system has been extended twice, first to the airport, second to South Hylton via Sunderland. The latter being ground-breaking as it shares a National Rail line with other services.

 

[nerd]

I'm a bit puzzled by your comparisons. Tyne & Wear Metro was a fairly extensive system when it first opened, whereas Nottingham's was only one line from the city centre with a short branch. IIRC the Tyne & Wear system has been extended twice, first to the airport, second to South Hylton via Sunderland. The latter being ground-breaking as it shares a National Rail line with other services.

The travails of the Tyne & Wear Metro are really for another thread; in respect of this discussion, we only need to note that the Sunderland extension happened 14 years ago - since when there have been repeated proposals for major developments and vehicle replacements, all of which remain on paper only. The underlying problem being that it is much more difficult to make a business case for such investment, when extra funding has to be extracted from the Treasury each time.

As I understand it, the current strategy for system expansion for the Metro is specifically directed to this problem; seeking first to reconfigure the service model so that it can be maintained without an operating subsidy; and then from that base, to identify replacement vehicle stock and network expansions consistent with that non-subsidised operating model.

Whereas the Nottingham network was configured from the outset to run without operating subsidy - which makes the business case for funding of service extensions much easier to do.

 

[edwin_m]

Whereas the Nottingham network was configured from the outset to run without operating subsidy - which makes the business case for funding of service extensions much easier to do.

Nottingham operates as a Private Finance Initiative, so the consortium had to borrow all the money to build it and receives ongoing payment from government to repay the loans once it is operational. I don't think unpicking and re-making a PFI to add an extension or two could ever be described as easy.

 

[tsangpogorge]

Can anyone tell me why the Altrincham line hasn't been extended to Hale? I'm guessing there's a lot more work involved than simply extending the overhead cables by less than a mile.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Altrincham is a four-platform station, with the two through lines used for the heavy-rail Mid-Cheshire line services that then pass through Hale and are also used by the freight service trains, whereas the two bay platforms are for the use of the Manchester Metrolink services, as a natural termination point.

 

[Altfish]

Can anyone tell me why the Altrincham line hasn't been extended to Hale? I'm guessing there's a lot more work involved than simply extending the overhead cables by less than a mile.

As Paul has said, the station at Altrincham is basically for two separate systems, Metrolink and National Rail. They are not connected and to extend to Hale would not be easy unless tram-train is considered. It would probably be better to extend beyond Hale to Knutsford.

 

[tsangpogorge]

It never occurred to me, excepting street running sections, that a Metrolink set and a diesel powered heavy rail vehicle couldn't share paths provided there was an overhead power source for the latter. I know the two networks are now completely isolated but what were to happen if hypothetically a Pacer were to make the run on the isolated section between Victoria and Bury?

 

[reb0118]

It will pay it back; but does public transport have to make a profit?

I wonder how a Treasury official would compose an answer to your premise above.

Before or after including any additional taxation raised from the extra business & employment generated by the improvement to the transportation system?

Infrastructure can sometimes be greater than the sum of its parts.

 

[Greybeard33]

It never occurred to me, excepting street running sections, that a Metrolink set and a diesel powered heavy rail vehicle couldn't share paths provided there was an overhead power source for the latter. I know the two networks are now completely isolated but what were to happen if hypothetically a Pacer were to make the run on the isolated section between Victoria and Bury?

Trams do not comply with heavy rail crashworthiness standards, so for safety reasons are not permitted to share track with heavy rail trains.

During engineering possessions, ELR diesel and steam locomotives have been on the Bury line with works trains. Metrolink platforms stick out further than heavy rail ones to enable wheelchair level access to the tram, so heavy rail vehicles have to go though a Metrolink station very slowly to avoid scraping the platform.

Purpose-built sections of segregated Metrolink line have tighter curves and steeper gradients that a heavy rail vehicle could not negotiate.

 

[edwin_m]

Trams do not comply with heavy rail crashworthiness standards, so for safety reasons are not permitted to share track with heavy rail trains.

During engineering possessions, ELR diesel and steam locomotives have been on the Bury line with works trains. Metrolink platforms stick out further than heavy rail ones to enable wheelchair level access to the tram, so heavy rail vehicles have to go though a Metrolink station very slowly to avoid scraping the platform.

Purpose-built sections of segregated Metrolink line have tighter curves and steeper gradients that a heavy rail vehicle could not negotiate.

Also, on-street sections of Metrolink have a grooved rail and the groove is too small for heavy rail flanges. And even on the off-street sections I don't think the full height for heavy rail stock is available, because the trams are a bit lower and the overhead line was strung underneath existing bridges rather than re-building them. Didn't they have to use those 08s with cut-down cabs?

 

[spargazer]

Progress on the Trafford Centre metrolink seems to have ground to a halt, the silence is deafening. No start date is being given so I assume that it is a problem with the local landowners; and we can guess which one it is. Usually, if it takes so long, the transport undertaking gives up and walks away.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Also, on-street sections of Metrolink have a grooved rail and the groove is too small for heavy rail flanges. And even on the off-street sections I don't think the full height for heavy rail stock is available, because the trams are a bit lower and the overhead line was strung underneath existing bridges rather than re-building them. Didn't they have to use those 08s with cut-down cabs?

Swiftsure, an ex NCB 0-6-0, was used last year.

 

[rebmcr]

I assume that it is a problem with the local landowners; and we can guess which one it is.

I can't.

 

[edwin_m]

I can't imagine much will happen on the ground until the TWA is granted, but things could start happening quite quickly afterwards.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

I can't imagine much will happen on the ground until the TWA is granted, but things could start happening quite quickly afterwards.

Thanks for bringing the matter of the TWA to the attention of those on this thread who seem unaware of matters.