First Group: General Discussion

[overthewater]

No timetable for the No20 during the week... where is the 25?

 

[Volvodart]

No 25 they are stopping running to Ferryhill in the evening.

 

[Jordan Adam]

No timetable for the No20 during the week... where is the 25?

As you'll note i did say there are a few "Admin Errors". The 20 being one of them, the Sunday timetable also needs sorted as the formatting is all over the place.

 

[overthewater]

As you'll note i did say there are a few "Admin Errors". The 20 being one of them, the Sunday timetable also needs sorted as the formatting is all over the place.

I thought you meant like wrong timetables or badly formatted not missing days

 

[Jordan Adam]

I thought you meant like wrong timetables or badly formatted not missing days

Well some of us were expecting to see some fictional timetables like the 4 to Portlethen, 5 to Stonehaven and 6 to Inverurie

 

[Jordan Adam]

First are thinking of suspending all services in Aberdeen due to the increasing poor road conditions.

Spoiler: First Bus to hold meeting to discuss suspending services in Aberdeen

The Beast from the East has forced First Bus officials in Aberdeen into crunch talks regarding today’s routes.

Bosses from the company are due to meet this afternoon to see if some bus routes will have to be suspended.

With bad weather across the City, the operator is keen to make people aware of the possibility of disruption.

In a statement on their website First said: “Due to the adverse weather many of our services are delayed 30 to 40 minutes.

“We are working really hard to keep as much of our routes running, and all services are operating currently.”

Stagecoach had already taken the decision to cancel some buses earlier today.

https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp...meeting-discuss-suspending-services-aberdeen/

 

[overthewater]

First are about to pull off all service in the Central belt ( EDIT including Glasgow - just appeared on BBC news) Stagecoach fife has done the same and so has Border buses..

So it would seem ALL buses in the central belt are now coming off.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

First are about to pull off all service in the Central belt ( EDIT including Glasgow - just appeared on BBC news) Stagecoach fife has done the same and so has Border buses..

So it would seem ALL buses in the central belt are now coming off.

With a red weather warning, it would be foolish not to.

 

[Jordan Adam]

So it would seem ALL buses in the central belt are now coming off.

The Central Belt has a red warning for snow so it's hardly surprising. It's blizzard like conditions with visibility only a few feet here so i hope First and Stagecoach follow suite. A number of Stagecoach buses have already been cancelled after a number came off the road.

 

[overthewater]

It's been a real pain today, There still been plenty of people going out and about even with the ref alert.

 

[Jordan Adam]

It's been a real pain today, There still been plenty of people going out and about even with the ref alert.

The issue is that people just gloss the alerts over. "Ohh they're exaggerating as always". On days like this you should just stay indoors and let it pass.

 

[90sWereBetter]

All First services in Norwich, Great Yarmouth and Lowestoft have been suspended since about 10am this morning, barring the Excel between Swaffham and Peterborough. Absolutely the correct decision, East Anglia's been particularly badly hit by the snow.

 

[winston270twm]

How is it that NX Group have still managed to see a good start to 2018 with group profits & revenue up in Jan despite the adverse weather conditions in North America, no doubt the current weather will feature as an excuse for poor First UK Bus Performance:
http://www.nationalexpressgroup.com/media/3305/180228-natex_rns-final-version-for-baml-and-web.pdf

 

[Volvodart]

I thought UK bus was doing better than expected and it was the US that was holding Firstgroup back.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

How is it that NX Group have still managed to see a good start to 2018 with group profits & revenue up in Jan despite the adverse weather conditions in North America, no doubt the current weather will feature as an excuse for poor First UK Bus Performance:
http://www.nationalexpressgroup.com/media/3305/180228-natex_rns-final-version-for-baml-and-web.pdf

The devil is in the detail. So whilst there are obvious questions to be asked, it is a little unfair to draw the like for like comparison viz:

First Group have operations in Puerto Rico which naturally had the issues with Hurricane that hit at the end of September. The impact would have affected First Group but not Nat Ex.

Then you have the winter snow bomb. Firstly, that hit in early January 2018 - outside the reference period for NatEx BUT within the reference period for First. I'd add that looking at the map of First's Transit operations and they are predominantly in the area that was worst affected with the winter snow bomb. NatEx Transit's operations seem to be more based on the West Coast than the East (though it's not easy to plot their operations).

However, they do point out that their business has been adversely affected viz:

"Although the business has suffered weather disruption in North America at the start of 2018, I expect the missed days to be recovered later this year". So that's Dean Finch rightly drawing attention to it as a possible consideration.

Also, the NatEx US business "grew revenue (10.1%) and normalised operating profit (6.6%) in constant currency. This has been delivered through a combination of organic growth, cost efficiencies and the benefit of recent acquisitions" so it's not a like for like comparison.

We all know that First have got some fundamental issues with Greyhound etc and they continue to have their challenges on UK Bus and also First Student.

 

[winston270twm]

The devil is in the detail. So whilst there are obvious questions to be asked, it is a little unfair to draw the like for like comparison viz:

First Group have operations in Puerto Rico which naturally had the issues with Hurricane that hit at the end of September. The impact would have affected First Group but not Nat Ex.

Then you have the winter snow bomb. Firstly, that hit in early January 2018 - outside the reference period for NatEx BUT within the reference period for First. I'd add that looking at the map of First's Transit operations and they are predominantly in the area that was worst affected with the winter snow bomb. NatEx Transit's operations seem to be more based on the West Coast than the East (though it's not easy to plot their operations).

However, they do point out that their business has been adversely affected viz:

"Although the business has suffered weather disruption in North America at the start of 2018, I expect the missed days to be recovered later this year". So that's Dean Finch rightly drawing attention to it as a possible consideration.

Also, the NatEx US business "grew revenue (10.1%) and normalised operating profit (6.6%) in constant currency. This has been delivered through a combination of organic growth, cost efficiencies and the benefit of recent acquisitions" so it's not a like for like comparison.

We all know that First have got some fundamental issues with Greyhound etc and they continue to have their challenges on UK Bus and also First Student.

TGW - Always fighting First's corner..... no wonder the shares are so low when long-term shareholders are happy to keep defending them, even after 5 years of their turnaround strategy, under the guise that one day they'll come good.... FGP at a new low of 80.5p, whilst the general market is down, those shares that are out of favour will fall faster.....

Whilst the implications are not recorded within the NX full year results, Jan trading going forward is noted / as is the adverse weather and NX management will already be aware of it's impact. Yes, Dean Finch expects lost days to be recovered, so why can't FGP recover the lost days as well?

It's Transit that operates in Puerto Rico, it's also only accounts for approx 4 of 310 locations that Transit serves, so rather insignificant (1.3% of Transits locations).
http://www.firstgroupplc.com/~/medi...npost-documents/first-transit-summer-2017.pdf

I'm aware NX have made some acquisitions, these are only relatively small bolt-on, you will also note that they have also exited some non profitable contracts & also lost more 'regrettable losses' on re-tender, at the bottom of the list, you will also note that the overall nett gain in fleet size was only 361 school buses inc the acquisitions.

First seem to have challenges in virtually every business division, they are simply not getting to grips with the underlying issues and improving. The point of posting the NX results was to illustrate the lack of negatives (challenges) within in their individual divisions performance, I'm aware they be compared like for like, but they do have similar operations. I'm fully expecting the current adverse weather in the UK to impact the improvements in UK Bus, as it's completely unexpected to have snow & ice in Winter!

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

TGW - Always fighting First's corner..... no wonder the shares are so low when long-term shareholders are happy to keep defending them, even after 5 years of their turnaround strategy, under the guise that one day they'll come good.... FGP at a new low of 80.5p, whilst the general market is down, those shares that are out of favour will fall faster.....

Whilst the implications are not recorded within the NX full year results, Jan trading going forward is noted / as is the adverse weather and NX management will already be aware of it's impact. Yes, Dean Finch expects lost days to be recovered, so why can't FGP recover the lost days as well?

It's Transit that operates in Puerto Rico, it's also only accounts for approx 4 of 310 locations that Transit serves, so rather insignificant (1.3% of Transits locations).
http://www.firstgroupplc.com/~/medi...npost-documents/first-transit-summer-2017.pdf

I'm aware NX have made some acquisitions, these are only relatively small bolt-on, you will also note that they have also exited some non profitable contracts & also lost more 'regrettable losses' on re-tender, at the bottom of the list, you will also note that the overall nett gain in fleet size was only 361 school buses inc the acquisitions.

First seem to have challenges in virtually every business division, they are simply not getting to grips with the underlying issues and improving. The point of posting the NX results was to illustrate the lack of negatives (challenges) within in their individual divisions performance, I'm aware they be compared like for like, but they do have similar operations. I'm fully expecting the current adverse weather in the UK to impact the improvements in UK Bus, as it's completely unexpected to have snow & ice in Winter!

Now now Winston. I'm not defending them. As I said on my closing line "We all know that First have got some fundamental issues with Greyhound etc and they continue to have their challenges on UK Bus and also First Student."

However, it is fair to point out that there are some differences in things like reference periods etc. I know that you appreciate some of the detail but, in all conscience, those comments weren't directed at you; rather those who would make a direct comparison.

I agree with you that the winter weather in the UK isn't a bonafide reason why group results should be affected. However, the way you phrased your earlier post was "How is it that NX Group have still managed to see a good start to 2018 with group profits & revenue up in Jan despite the adverse weather conditions in North America" when clearly the weather bomb is outside that term of reference for one firm and not for another. Even Dean Finch is signposting it, though believing that it'll all be ok by the year end.

 

[Robertj21a]

TGW - Always fighting First's corner..... no wonder the shares are so low when long-term shareholders are happy to keep defending them, even after 5 years of their turnaround strategy, under the guise that one day they'll come good.... FGP at a new low of 80.5p, whilst the general market is down, those shares that are out of favour will fall faster.....

Whilst the implications are not recorded within the NX full year results, Jan trading going forward is noted / as is the adverse weather and NX management will already be aware of it's impact. Yes, Dean Finch expects lost days to be recovered, so why can't FGP recover the lost days as well?

It's Transit that operates in Puerto Rico, it's also only accounts for approx 4 of 310 locations that Transit serves, so rather insignificant (1.3% of Transits locations).
http://www.firstgroupplc.com/~/medi...npost-documents/first-transit-summer-2017.pdf

I'm aware NX have made some acquisitions, these are only relatively small bolt-on, you will also note that they have also exited some non profitable contracts & also lost more 'regrettable losses' on re-tender, at the bottom of the list, you will also note that the overall nett gain in fleet size was only 361 school buses inc the acquisitions.

First seem to have challenges in virtually every business division, they are simply not getting to grips with the underlying issues and improving. The point of posting the NX results was to illustrate the lack of negatives (challenges) within in their individual divisions performance, I'm aware they be compared like for like, but they do have similar operations. I'm fully expecting the current adverse weather in the UK to impact the improvements in UK Bus, as it's completely unexpected to have snow & ice in Winter!

If we already know, and look out for, the 'mealy words', fudges and 'massaging' that we've come to expect from First Group then it's hardly surprising that the financial analysts, advisers and stockbrokers are also less than enthusiastic about FGP. We knew the massive oil tanker would take a long time to turn around, but it's also true that Blockhead went a good many years ago.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

If we already know, and look out for, the 'mealy words', fudges and 'massaging' that we've come to expect from First Group then it's hardly surprising that the financial analysts, advisers and stockbrokers are also less than enthusiastic about FGP. We knew the massive oil tanker would take a long time to turn around, but it's also true that Blockhead went a good many years ago.

Indeed, and the recovery plan hasn't worked. The pressure on Tim O'Toole is reaching a level though is it enough for institutional investors to force him to walk.

In terms of UK Bus, we do need to look at the industry as a whole. As I've said ad nauseum, the whole industry has a multitude of existential issues. If a firm that has been well run, well invested, with close cost control such as Stagecoach is busy drawing their horns across the country, then why are people surprised that First is doing so.

In hindsight, we all know that First should have divested themselves of Greyhound in 2007/8 and probably in 2012/3 too. Whether they can find a buyer now, you wonder?

 

[Jordan Adam]

First Aberdeen have now done a press release for their next set of service changes but there's a few "Admin errors", As always!...

Spoiler: Notice of Network Alterations - April 1st 2018

FIRST ABERDEEN ANNOUNCES NETWORK CHANGES
• Service X40 will be withdrawn, however, Dubford and the Bridge O Don P&R will now be served by a rerouted service 20.
• Service 1A will be extended to serve Hillhead of Seaton
• Service 16 will be withdrawn, with a revised service 17 timetable introduced to maintain current frequencies from Dyce, Newhills and Four Mile Inn. Craibstone P&R and Aberdeen airport will no longer be served.
• Service 9 will be withdrawn, however, service 8 remains with minor timetable alterations.
• Evening and Sunday Service 25 will be withdrawn
• Service 117 will see 2 early am and 1 pm journeys cancelled
• There will be a small number of journeys withdrawn on other services.
• Services 2, 12, 18, 19 & 23 will see timetable revisions to improve punctuality, following feedback from customers and drivers.

Local bus operator, First Aberdeen, has announced a number of forthcoming network changes that will come into effect on Sunday, April 1st 2018.

The general economic downturn in Aberdeen has meant that First Aberdeen has to review the sustainability and commercial viability of some of its services. Where issues arise, the operator put plans in place to reverse the situation, but once every effort has been exhausted to increase or sustain the number of customers using a route then this ultimately leads to the review of a service.

This has unfortunately been the case with the Dubford area routes and as a result, the X40 and 9 services have now been proposed for withdrawal. In terms of the Dubford and Bridge of Don areas, the operator has previously offered direct services to the Aberdeen Royal Infirmary (ARI), however passenger numbers were not sufficient to cover the operational costs of the service due to a decline in passenger numbers. Instead, the operator introduced service 8 & 9 which covered the ARI via Aberdeen city centre, in an attempt to serve the area with a commercially viable service.

Unfortunately, in the last 12 months the situation has not improved in terms of their overall financial position, so the operator has taken the decision to retain the 8 service whilst cancelling the 9 service in the expectation that some of the passengers transfer to the 8 service and make this financially viable .

Service X40 is in an unsustainable position of not covering its costs, therefore the operator has taken the decision to cancel this service. Instead, Service 20 will be rerouted from St Machar Drive to cover the X40 route from Bridge of Don Park & Ride to Dubford. This will see a frequency reduction from every 20 minutes to now every 30 minutes, but with additional journeys in the peak hours to cover the increased demand from commuters.

Further to the rerouting of service 20 on St Machar Drive, Service 1A will now extend to Hillhead of Seaton to replace that section of the Service 20 route but with an improved frequency.

Due to very low passenger demand the evening and Sunday only Service 25 has been cancelled, whilst the low level of demand for service 16 from Aberdeen Airport or the Craibstone Park & Ride site has resulted in a revised service 17 being introduced replacing the 16.

There are also some other minor timetable amendments to cancel a small number of journeys with low demand, whilst some services have revised running times at peak times to further improve their punctuality.

https://www.firstgroup.com/aberdeen...ews/notice-network-alterations-april-1st-2018

 

[winston270twm]

Now now Winston. I'm not defending them. As I said on my closing line "We all know that First have got some fundamental issues with Greyhound etc and they continue to have their challenges on UK Bus and also First Student."

However, it is fair to point out that there are some differences in things like reference periods etc. I know that you appreciate some of the detail but, in all conscience, those comments weren't directed at you; rather those who would make a direct comparison.

I agree with you that the winter weather in the UK isn't a bonafide reason why group results should be affected. However, the way you phrased your earlier post was "How is it that NX Group have still managed to see a good start to 2018 with group profits & revenue up in Jan despite the adverse weather conditions in North America" when clearly the weather bomb is outside that term of reference for one firm and not for another. Even Dean Finch is signposting it, though believing that it'll all be ok by the year end.

TGW - I agree the current NX Full Year Results don't include Jan 2018, however, below is the forward looking statement the group make, if they're confident enough to make that now, they must know what impact the adverse weather -- 'Good start to 2018, with Group revenues and profits up in January, notwithstanding significant weather-related disruption in North America' - no acquisitions have been made during Jan 2018 that I'm aware of.

Really, FGP should be budgeting in the US during Hurricane Season, In Canada during the Winter & UK during the Winter for a few lost days, if they don't use them, it should go straight on the bottom line. I seem to remember adverse weather being blamed on a number of occasions in the past.

 

[winston270twm]

If we already know, and look out for, the 'mealy words', fudges and 'massaging' that we've come to expect from First Group then it's hardly surprising that the financial analysts, advisers and stockbrokers are also less than enthusiastic about FGP. We knew the massive oil tanker would take a long time to turn around, but it's also true that Blockhead went a good many years ago.

There are far bigger 'super tankers' that have been turned around much quicker than progress at FGP, such as BP, Balfour Beatty, TSB, Centrica is currently being turned around due to a dive in profits etc

 

[Robertj21a]

Indeed, and the recovery plan hasn't worked. The pressure on Tim O'Toole is reaching a level though is it enough for institutional investors to force him to walk.

In terms of UK Bus, we do need to look at the industry as a whole. As I've said ad nauseum, the whole industry has a multitude of existential issues. If a firm that has been well run, well invested, with close cost control such as Stagecoach is busy drawing their horns across the country, then why are people surprised that First is doing so.

In hindsight, we all know that First should have divested themselves of Greyhound in 2007/8 and probably in 2012/3 too. Whether they can find a buyer now, you wonder?

I totally agree that when Stagecoach is also having problems then it's hardly surprising that FGP has them too, in spades. However, it still appears that First Group are continually too slow to take action to stem losses, or rationalise operations, or to maintain a firm stance on .......virtually anything. In reality, the actions of Tim O'T, and Giles, in recent years hasn't proved to be markedly different to the Lockhead years.

 

[winston270twm]

Indeed, and the recovery plan hasn't worked. The pressure on Tim O'Toole is reaching a level though is it enough for institutional investors to force him to walk.

In terms of UK Bus, we do need to look at the industry as a whole. As I've said ad nauseum, the whole industry has a multitude of existential issues. If a firm that has been well run, well invested, with close cost control such as Stagecoach is busy drawing their horns across the country, then why are people surprised that First is doing so.

In hindsight, we all know that First should have divested themselves of Greyhound in 2007/8 and probably in 2012/3 too. Whether they can find a buyer now, you wonder?

I always thought Greyhound would interest NX Group, it's similar to their main core UK coaching activates & Spanish ALSA. Whether Dean Finch would entertain making a big acquisition, I'm not so certain. He's seems to be playing it safe with bolt-on acquisitions/organic expansion at present.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

TGW - I agree the current NX Full Year Results don't include Jan 2018, however, below is the forward looking statement the group make, if they're confident enough to make that now, they must know what impact the adverse weather -- 'Good start to 2018, with Group revenues and profits up in January, notwithstanding significant weather-related disruption in North America' - no acquisitions have been made during Jan 2018 that I'm aware of.

Really, FGP should be budgeting in the US during Hurricane Season, In Canada during the Winter & UK during the Winter for a few lost days, if they don't use them, it should go straight on the bottom line. I seem to remember adverse weather being blamed on a number of occasions in the past.

My interpretation of that first line is that the group is doing well in Jan (good start). However, DF's statement highlights that this is despite the weather in North America - that is clearly a downside in that "Although the business has suffered weather disruption in North America at the start of 2018, I expect the missed days to be recovered later this year". DF is saying they have 11 months to regain that lost ground. First haven't got that same period because of differing reporting periods.

 

[Volvodart]

The lost days for First are always recouped in the next financial year.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I always thought Greyhound would interest NX Group, it's similar to their main core UK coaching activates & Spanish ALSA. Whether Dean Finch would entertain making a big acquisition, I'm not so certain. He's seems to be playing it safe with bolt-on acquisitions/organic expansion at present.

Again, it's a bit of a curate's egg. The shorter distance stuff seems to be ok but the longer distance isn't so clever. It is only about a tenth of total revenues so it would be the obvious thing to sell. Agree, it may be a bit high risk having restored NX to health - it is an aside but DF and his team have done a really good job on NX.

 

[winston270twm]

I totally agree that when Stagecoach is also having problems then it's hardly surprising that FGP has them too, in spades. However, it still appears that First Group are continually too slow to take action to stem losses, or rationalise operations, or to maintain a firm stance on .......virtually anything. In reality, the actions of Tim O'T, and Giles, in recent years hasn't proved to be markedly different to the Lockhead years.

Totally agree, we all know the UK bus industry is tough & there is a North/South divide, but First still come across as being really complacent. They really need to be more Pro-active, there was a campaign in certain areas to drive growth through pricing offers, this seems to have dried up. Some of NXWM's growth is attributed to the new low fare zones that have been created.

 

[winston270twm]

Again, it's a bit of a curate's egg. The shorter distance stuff seems to be ok but the longer distance isn't so clever. It is only about a tenth of total revenues so it would be the obvious thing to sell. Agree, it may be a bit high risk having restored NX to health - it is an aside but DF and his team have done a really good job on NX.

The other problem with First selling Greyhound now, is it would wipe $55million of profits off FGP overall. Greyhound is pretty profitable, I'm sure under Group that might be able to extract margins / compete with the airlines more thought their various dynamic pricing benefitting NX Coaches & ALSA, however, I assume any acquisition would involve taking on more debt which already stand at circa £875 million, so I think it's a non-starter. Yes, totally agree, NX Group has gone from virtual collapse to consistently beating market expectations without taking big risks.

 

[Jordan Adam]

Seeing as First Aberdeen's press release for their upcoming services changes is quite a mess with incorrect info i have made a more accurate list. Although being the (not) smart person that i am i forgot to post it here yesterday.....

First Aberdeen Network revisions, 1st April 2018

Service 1/1A/2: Timetable alterations to improve reliability, routes see increased running time along with a few extra peak time runs. 1A extended to Hillhead Of Seaton and will now operate Saturdays and Sundays*.

Service 3/3G: Minor Timetable alterations

Service 8: Minor Timetable alterations to aid withdrawal of the 9.

New Service 8A: New peak time service from Dubford at 7:00 goes via Hilton arriving at ARI for 7:37. (First are hoping to add extra journeys if this route gets good patronage)

Service 9: Withdrawn

Service 12: Minor Timetable alterations

Service 16: Withdrawn (Replaced by new 17B).

Service 17/17A/17B/18A: Timetable alterations, new service 17B operating between Albyn Place and Four Mile Inn to maintain frequency between St Nicholas Kirk and Bucksburn due to the withdrawal of the 16.

On Sundays the service will operate as the 17A (South bound), 17B (North Bound) and 18A. 17A/17B operating from Faulds Gate to Four Mile Inn and 18A operating from Albyn Place to Dyce. This will provide an enhanced 15 minute frequency between Bucksburn and Town.

Service 18: Minor Timetable alterations, New morning journey from Tesco Danestone.

Service 19: Timetable alterations, PVR goes up by 1 bus to allow 5 minutes extra running time each way.

Service 20: Service is extended to Dubford to replace the X40. Will now operate during the evening in place of the 25.

Service 23: Minor Timetable alterations

Service 25: This evening only variation of the 20 has been withdrawn due to the 20 now operating all day

Service X40: Withdrawn, replaced by the extension of the 20.

Service 117: 2 morning journeys have been withdrawn. 18:10 departure from Howes Moss Road has been retimed

*The 1A will only run Sundays if First win the Dubford/Denmore tenders (Which they most likely will).

It should also be noted that there will be revisions to those changes above affecting services 8 and 20 in the next week or so once the council reveal who have won the Dubford/Denmore and Kingswells bus tenders.

Timetables for the changes can be viewed here.

Although there's a few errors such as the 1A terminating at Asda on the return from RGU. Also just disregard the Sunday timetable for the 20 as it's formatted all wrong and suspected the route will change (on Sundays) once first get the Dubford/Denmore tender, which they most likely will.