First Group: General Discussion

[winston270twm]

The big mistake was not getting rid of Greyhound, as they originally had planned to do when it was acquired, which would have got debt down to a more manageable amount.

It's a good job NX Group knocked back Moir's advances for the two group to merge in June 2009, imagine where the combined group would be today if they'd had NX's extra debt & Group Op's to sort out as well.

 

[winston270twm]

It is just a minimal dividend that they are thinking about.

Even so, I don't think it's worth it at present. I think long suffering shareholders would prefer to see the shareprice enter an upward trend with sustained increases, that will only occur once the group becomes more profitable & thus everything gets easier, including reducing debt levels quicker.

 

[Robertj21a]

Even so, I don't think it's worth it at present. I think long suffering shareholders would prefer to see the shareprice enter an upward trend with sustained increases, that will only occur once the group becomes more profitable & thus everything gets easier, including reducing debt levels quicker.

They must have some very loyal (or naive) shareholders if they're still holding on after all these disastrous years. Are they awaiting the Messiah ?

 

[winston270twm]

They must have some very loyal (or naive) shareholders if they're still holding on after all these disastrous years. Are they awaiting the Messiah ?

I'm surprised O'Toole hasn't been forced to fall on his sword, 5 years is more than enough time to prove the BOD's strategy hasn't worked. They must all be carrying large paper losses based on current share price. I must be getting low enough now that the entire group could make an attractive takeover target to a European Transport Group looking to expanding in the UK & US.

 

[overthewater]

I'm surprised O'Toole hasn't been forced to fall on his sword, 5 years is more than enough time to prove the BOD's strategy hasn't worked. They must all be carrying large paper losses based on current share price. I must be getting low enough now that the entire group could make an attractive takeover target to a European Transport Group looking to expanding in the UK & US.

That's only possible if there have plans to sell off something to get the debt down.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

That's only possible if there have plans to sell off something to get the debt down.

Not sure how that statement tallies with what Winston said?

 

[overthewater]

If I was DB or Ratp group etc, and was sniffing around first I would be looking to see what the best parts were while having one eye on the debt pile. Ie have a plan to deal cut down the debt.

 

[winston270twm]

That's only possible if there have plans to sell off something to get the debt down.

A new owner with an existing business will have funding to pump in to FGP to return the business to profits growth, FGP needs money to be able to make money....

O'Toole has purchased less than £14k worth of FGP shares today @ £0.83 hardly a big show of confidence with what he takes out of FGP.

 

[overthewater]

Then History might end up repeating itself...

 

[winston270twm]

If I was DB or Ratp group etc, and was sniffing around first I would be looking to see what the best parts were while having one eye on the debt pile. Ie have a plan to deal cut down the debt.

DB wouldn't be able to be involved due to already owning Arriva / resulting in competition concerns within UK Bus.

I was thinking more along the lines of Abellio parent (NED Railways) SCNF, Transdev or possibly even someone like MTR Corporation

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

It was a blessing for Stagecoach since Megabus usa network is done rather well. Was there anyone else wanting to bid for Greyhound?

Great piece from the Telegraph... That where it went wrong.


Mind you even if first never brought the above, It still wouldn't have solved basket case like FSE, Northampton or Somerset, or other parts of UK bus because of the current UK climate?

Sorry but in terms of Northampton, that wasn’t a basket case until First’s travails.

It was successively pillaged for newer fleet and suffered a death of a thousand cuts. Fleet was delivered, then removed to other operations in 2007/8. No investment in new fleet. Cuts to “low margin” routes - it is a text book case of the killing of the cash cow. In fact, it was one of the best margin operations in the country, back in the day.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

DB wouldn't be able to be involved due to already owning Arriva / resulting in competition concerns within UK Bus.

I was thinking more along the lines of Abellio parent (NED Railways) SCNF, Transdev or possibly even someone like MTR Corporation

DB - with Arriva, as you say, have no chance because of competition and the need to reduce THEIR debt!

As for Transdev, they have their own challenges as they pay off Veolia...if they want to!

Who knows!!!

 

[winston270twm]

Sorry but in terms of Northampton, that wasn’t a basket case until First’s travails.

It was successively pillaged for newer fleet and suffered a death of a thousand cuts. Fleet was delivered, then removed to other operations in 2007/8. No investment in new fleet. Cuts to “low margin” routes - it is a text book case of the killing of the cash cow. In fact, it was one of the best margin operations in the country, back in the day.

Now that statement sounds familiar.... they are repeating it again under the guise of 'only investing areas where councils are pro bus and will match First's investment with infrastructure improvements / bus priorities'

Incidentially, wasn't First Berskshire also generating the highest margin within UK Bus at one point, it's a downward spiral constantly cutting the network.

 

[Volvodart]

But Firstgroup need UK bus profits, as rail and US operations profitability is variable to say the least. No one knows how the recently started rail franchises will turn out. The growth forecast could well turn out not to be there.

 

[Robertj21a]

But Firstgroup need UK bus profits, as rail and US operations profitability is variable to say the least. No one knows how the recently started rail franchises will turn out. The growth forecast could well turn out not to be there.

Indeed. Others have suggested that the rail franchises may well prove to be the life, or death, of First Group.

 

[baza585]

A new owner with an existing business will have funding to pump in to FGP to return the business to profits growth, FGP needs money to be able to make money....

O'Toole has purchased less than £14k worth of FGP shares today @ £0.83 hardly a big show of confidence with what he takes out of FGP.

Bit harsh Winston. This is part of his salary that he takes as shares every month. So he buys (roughly) that amount each month. Not sure I see too many Go Ahead or Stagecoach directors doing this. Not a huge fan of O'Toole but he does put (some of) his money on the line each month.

 

[Jordan Adam]

Looks like the 16 is going with no replacement. Although current frequencies will be retained along most of the route as a new variant of the 17 will go along Gt Northern Road to Four Mile Inn.

https://www.firstgroup.com/aberdeen...planned-changes/network-alterations-1st-april

 

[overthewater]

Alas the page has been deleted.. Hence why our supposed to also copy and quote within reason

 

[Jordan Adam]

Alas the page has been deleted.. Hence why our supposed to also copy and quote within reason

Ops forgot that... Luckily i still have it open so here you go... :P

Spoiler: First Aberdeen Network Alterations - 1st April 2018

Network Alterations: 1st April 2018
Some of our services are changing at the beginning of April. The economic downturn in Aberdeen has meant that we have to constantly review the sustainability and commercial viability of our services. Details for each affected service are listed below:

Service 1/1A/2

Revised services provisions and departure times for January to May then September and December. Timetable changes to meet demand linked to the RGU commute.

1A will extend to Hillhead of Seaton in addition to current route from St Machar Drive to RGU.

Service 8/8A

Revised departure times to encourage passenger growth

Service 8A introduced, 0700 from Dubford (Sheillhill Drive) to Aberdeen Royal Infirmary on a more direct route, to arrive at ARI for 0737

Service 9

Regrettably, this service will be withdrawn due to lack of demand

Service 12

Revised timetable and departure times

Service 16

Route will be cancelled. Dyce Park and Choose and Airport will no longer be served.

Service 17

Revised to maintain current frequencies from Dyce/Newhills/Great Northern Road, with some journies terminating at the 4 Mile Inn service.

Service 18

Revised intermediate and departure times

Service 19

Revised morning and afternoon departures to better service school provision

Service 20

Additional morning departures for Bridge of Don Park & Ride

Service 23

Revised timetables and departure times

Service 25

Regrettably, this service will be withdrawn due to low passenger numbers. Ferrymill no longer served evenings and Sundays

Service X40

Regrettably, this service will be withdrawn due to siginificant downturn in passenger numbers. Service 20 re-routed from St Machar Drive to cover Dubford area.

Service 117

Reduction during peak times only due to low usage

Information on that page is very useless to most people which is likely why it has been removed. There's also a few mistakes.

 

[overthewater]

Cheers, I do like " Revised departure times to encourage passenger growth" your right the thing is riddled with mistakes..

 

[Jordan Adam]

Cheers, I do like " Revised departure times to encourage passenger growth" your right the thing is riddled with mistakes..

Well the current issue is that buses are not well split. So 8 and 9s are due at the same time as all other services. From Tillydrone there's a 15 minute gap in the service and then a 9, 18 and 19 all come within 30 seconds of each other before there's another 15 minute gap in service.

We all know First like to use fancy terminology for things....

 

[Robertj21a]

Well the current issue is that buses are not well split. So 8 and 9s are due at the same time as all other services. From Tillydrone there's a 15 minute gap in the service and then a 9, 18 and 19 all come within 30 seconds of each other before there's another 15 minute gap in service.

We all know First like to use fancy terminology for things....

Are they still 'Transforming Travel'......

 

[Jordan Adam]

Are they still 'Transforming Travel'......

First dumped that a few years back for the "We Believe" series of slogans...

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Are they still 'Transforming Travel'......

That was discreetly dropped when Moir went off to feed his cattle.

Interestingly, at Bristol bus station, someone went at covered up the strapline on various notices.

A friend, who’s a fairly senior bod in a First business, said even they called it “Transgressing Travel” though not so Moir could hear!

 

[Jordan Adam]

A friend, who’s a fairly senior bod in a First business, said even they called it “Transgressing Travel” though not so Moir could hear!

Still it could be worse...

"Greener, Smarter, Travel" on the back of a Stagecoach MAN 18.240 all the while it puts out a huge black cloud of exhaust fumes as it pulls away from the bus stop...

 

[winston270twm]

Are they still 'Transforming Travel'......

More like 'Transferring Travel' to other operators / modes of transport.....

 

[Baxenden Bank]

"Transforming Travel"

I fear you may be wearing your positive hats. Who said that the transformation was for the better?

A bit like "the ENCTS pass is safe in our hands" meanwhile no promises were made about the bus services themselves!

 

[Volvodart]

Looks like the Buses part of the website has crashed. A bit unfortunate with the weather requiring updates. Phones are also down according to twitter!

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Now that statement sounds familiar.... they are repeating it again under the guise of 'only investing areas where councils are pro bus and will match First's investment with infrastructure improvements / bus priorities'

Incidentially, wasn't First Berskshire also generating the highest margin within UK Bus at one point, it's a downward spiral constantly cutting the network.

As a municipal operation, Northampton Transport was one of the best margin bus companies in the country, not just best in GRT/First Group.

Understand your comparison but think it must be tempered slightly. Berkshire is tougher bus country in terms of traffic congestion and driver retention. Also, Slough depot is a relatively low cost facility whereas you had Northampton being a cavernous ex tram depot so a very high fixed cost. Given that operators are taking on the First withdrawals with support (rather than commercially - I think that's right) perhaps indicates that they weren't even covering operating costs (fixed and variable) let alone contribution to overhead.

 

[Jordan Adam]

New timetables for First Aberdeen from April the 1st can be viewed here

There appears to be a few "admin errors" though.

Looks like the Buses part of the website has crashed. A bit unfortunate with the weather requiring updates. Phones are also down according to twitter!

The website was down due to a power cut. Power was resumed just before 8 and the website went back up shortly after, although it's running slow.