First Group: General Discussion

[TheGrandWazoo]

If you can take out FSE would "like-for-like passenger volume growth" be higher?

Well, it's a simple question of maths, isn't it? Is FSE experiencing higher than average passenger growth or not?

There have been announcements about Bristol experiencing substantial growth and you'd anticipate Manchester and Hampshire may be other stronger performers?

 

[overthewater]

Well, it's a simple question of maths, isn't it? Is FSE experiencing higher than average passenger growth or not?

There have been announcements about Bristol experiencing substantial growth and you'd anticipate Manchester and Hampshire may be other stronger performers?

I would say FSE is experiencing higher than average passenger losses. Where would the growth come from after 30 buses of the road.

On the Dunblane - Stirling route, which First are planning curtail:

Its fares £3.20. Yet the council services etc , which provide a joint hourly service overall its fares are £1.80- £2....

Please don't ask about Dayticket... ok its £7.80 hock:

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

I would say FSE is experiencing higher than average passenger losses. Where would the growth come from after 30 buses of the road.

On the Dunblane - Stirling route, which First are planning curtail:

Its fares £3.20. Yet the council services etc , which provide a joint hourly service overall its fares are £1.80- £2....

Please don't ask about Dayticket... ok its £7.80 hock:

The 30 buses are not really relevant - it's about like for like figures remember.

 

[overthewater]

The 30 buses are not really relevant - it's about like for like figures remember.

In short: No.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Despite no official announcement, Malcolm Jones has done one of his trips to Heysham Docks and seen new Potteries Streetlite 63250 on delivery. That the first of the 2015 deliveries?

However, Streetdecks are not yet due as the B&H ones are being done first. That and the latest Borismasters!

 

[winston270twm]

Despite no official announcement, Malcolm Jones has done one of his trips to Heysham Docks and seen new Potteries Streetlite 63250 on delivery. That the first of the 2015 deliveries?

However, Streetdecks are not yet due as the B&H ones are being done first. That and the latest Borismasters!

I've not long seen someone asking if 63250 is the one that is still outstanding for Potteries, so may not be from the new order

 

[GaryMcEwan]

I've not long seen someone asking if 63250 is the one that is still outstanding one for Potteries, so may not be from the new order

Don't think it is from the new order as 63249 is an FSE Streelite based at Livingston and is from last year's order.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

63249 was the last of 2014's order - delivered Dec 2014

63250 is brand new on delivery (April 2015)

 

[185]

Greetings. Am I hearing truth or Shenigans from two individuals at Bolton and Bury that FG are this week 'considering' selling their depots to Arriva?? Seen it twice on FB now and starting to wonder :P

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Greetings. Am I hearing truth or Shenigans from two individuals at Bolton and Bury that FG are this week 'considering' selling their depots to Arriva?? Seen it twice on FB now and starting to wonder :P

What evidence did these people provide? Remember, we've been here before in Feb 2013....

There is a rumour on the GM Buses Yahoo group that Stagecoach have offered £36.2 million for the Bolton and Bury depots. That would complete the purchase of the entire 'West' division of First Manchester, leaving the more profitable 'East' division of Oldham and Queen's Road depots with First, along with First Pennine.

Of course, take this with an ENORMOUS pinch of salt. I just thought I would mention it in case it is actually true. And it doesn't sound that unrealistic as it should be reasonably OFT friendly.

A cautionary note.. In fact, just scroll down this thread and see how many rumours came true

 

[winston270twm]

What evidence did these people provide? Remember, we've been here before in Feb 2013....

There is a rumour on the GM Buses Yahoo group that Stagecoach have offered £36.2 million for the Bolton and Bury depots. That would complete the purchase of the entire 'West' division of First Manchester, leaving the more profitable 'East' division of Oldham and Queen's Road depots with First, along with First Pennine.

Of course, take this with an ENORMOUS pinch of salt. I just thought I would mention it in case it is actually true. And it doesn't sound that unrealistic as it should be reasonably OFT friendly.

A cautionary note.. In fact, just scroll down this thread and see how many rumours came true

I agree TGW, very few of all the disposal rumours ever amounted to anything. If anything, I would be more inclined to believe the opposite i.e. Arriva may be considering selling their Bolton operation to First was more likely ?

 

[overthewater]

So this rumour has made it onto this forum, let be honest here why on earth WOULD First sell those depot, I can think of a few less profitable depot to start it.

Rumors claim there is a big meeting for next week; of course that could be for anything including new drivers terms and conditions.

 

[winston270twm]

So this rumour has made it onto this forum, let be honest here why on earth WOULD First sell those depot, I can think of a few less profitable depot to start it.

Rumors claim there is a big meeting for next week; of course that could be for anything including new drivers terms and conditions.

After First acquired Finglands and launched the cross river services, I for one would be very surprised if they sold off a large chunck of the Manchester op.

 

[overthewater]

After First acquired Finglands and launched the cross river services, I for one would be very surprised if they sold off a large chunck of the Manchester op.

Manchester is one of those places where First are actually doing rather well. Further up this thread First made it clear it wanted to raise £100M from sell offs, and so everything had a chance. But those days are long gone

 

[DD12]

I would like this latest rumour to be true -- First could use the £36 million to buy me some (extra) new Double Deckers !
Is this now the latest that a year's new bus orders have been announced by First ?
And, has anyone else noticed that Bill Potter still hasn't announced a 2015 edition of the First Bus Handbook ?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
ALSO, I'm slightly puzzled about the big groups announcing their orders before the general election -- I would think that Labour stand a reasonable chance of forming a government, and I would have thought that would make Stagecoach (at least) very nervous ?

 

[185]

From two drivers.. one of who is a total joker, the other is quite level headed. Was just asking here as there's nothing in the press.

 

[Polo Mint]

If First were to sell two very profitable depots then it may raise cash in the short term, but down the line would deprive them of income for future investments, Not to mention First finished disposing of their depots some years ago. I thought Bolton made a lot more money than Queens Road, Rusholme and Dukinfield?

I imagine the big bus groups are very nervous of a Labour government, but would be petrified at the thought of a left wing coalition government of Labour and/or SNP/Green/Plaid. Despite all of this the DDA deadline is looming in the near future though, and would buses be a priority for the next government, whoever it may be?

Its a shame we are this far into the year without a bus order, perhaps the recent rail contracts losses mean things have to be re-assessed financially?

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Given that the first of 2015 deliveries have begun (with Potteries Streetlite 63250) and other areas seemingly knowing what they're getting, then you'd think the order has been awarded but not announced.

I'm with Winston - can't see them selling part of GM having only just bought Finglands. Doesn't make sense.

As for the election, I don't see any material change for a few years irrespective of who gets in. After all, they'll have their hands full with more pressing issues.

 

[winston270twm]

Given that the first of 2015 deliveries have begun (with Potteries Streetlite 63250) and other areas seemingly knowing what they're getting, then you'd think the order has been awarded but not announced.

I'm with Winston - can't see them selling part of GM having only just bought Finglands. Doesn't make sense.

As for the election, I don't see any material change for a few years irrespective of who gets in. After all, they'll have their hands full with more pressing issues.

The cash outflows & loss of profit from Rail Franchises must be hurting more than they are letting on, but I just can't see them selling off a large chunk of Manchester, London fair enough as it was under performing / profits margin are more restricted on TFL contracts. They would be far better getting shot of the loss makers that are draining any profit improvements at the likes of the GM ops, FSE for one (cue overthewater.....)

 

[ivanhoe]

I agree. If First were to sell part of GM then there are huge problems. When in trouble, you sell off or just leave the less profitable bits. Buses are their main raison d'être though, but trains give them them publicity more than profits. It's all about getting the right balance. I for one want them to succeed. We are never going back to NBC era but a new public/ private partnership will probably evolve. Public bus networks, privately delivered.

 

[overthewater]

See how these things start I have to agree with you lot, especial about cash flow etc

 

[Robertj21a]

I agree. If First were to sell part of GM then there are huge problems. When in trouble, you sell off or just leave the less profitable bits. Buses are their main raison d'être though, but trains give them them publicity more than profits. It's all about getting the right balance. I for one want them to succeed. We are never going back to NBC era but a new public/ private partnership will probably evolve. Public bus networks, privately delivered.

With their share price bumping along the very bottom, still under £1, it seems that those nice folk in the City don't think too much of First's prospects.

 

[Strathclyder]

One of First Glasgow's 25 Enviro 500s (38219) is currently up in Aberdeen on trial to see whether or not they can be used to replace Aberdeen's oldest artics.

 

[Volvodart]

They are type training drivers on it today.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

With their share price bumping along the very bottom, still under £1, it seems that those nice folk in the City don't think too much of First's prospects.

The problem is that there's usually a time lag in such instances.

Fact was that in the past (the Moir era), everything was said to be positive and peachy. Now, an analyst in an investment bank will look at the financials but is quite unaware of what us enthusiasts knew. That was a culture of relentless cutting and under-investment that was only going to end in failure. Hence, the share price generally fared ok whilst the dividend was being paid (and at a frankly unsustainable level).

Now you have the opposite. The UK bus business is clearly turning around (in some areas, more prominently than in others). The US Student bus is perhaps stabilising whilst Transit continues to do well. The UK rail has had a cashflow drop (as anticipated) but generally, the news is ok rather than exceptional.

It'll take some really positive news, restoration of a dividend and, dare I say it, time to pass for the sins of the past to be forgotten and then you'll see the share price increase!!

 

[winston270twm]

The problem is that there's usually a time lag in such instances.

Fact was that in the past (the Moir era), everything was said to be positive and peachy. Now, an analyst in an investment bank will look at the financials but is quite unaware of what us enthusiasts knew. That was a culture of relentless cutting and under-investment that was only going to end in failure. Hence, the share price generally fared ok whilst the dividend was being paid (and at a frankly unsustainable level).

Now you have the opposite. The UK bus business is clearly turning around (in some areas, more prominently than in others). The US Student bus is perhaps stabilising whilst Transit continues to do well. The UK rail has had a cashflow drop (as anticipated) but generally, the news is ok rather than exceptional.

It'll take some really positive news, restoration of a dividend and, dare I say it, time to pass for the sins of the past to be forgotten and then you'll see the share price increase!!

TGW,

Not forgetting reducing debt levels significantly

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

TGW,

Not forgetting reducing debt levels significantly

Very true! They already stated that that's a precursor to restoration of the dividend. As a fellow shareholder, I'm sure you're keen for that to happen

We've had the trading update which was broadly OK (no stronger than that) but the prelims will tell us more.

As an aside, one of my former employers (that I happen to hold shares in) was a forerunner of First Group in terms of corporate mismanagement. Their shares went from 437p in 2007 to 57p in 2011!! The lesson - always sell too early!!!

 

[winston270twm]

Very true! They already stated that that's a precursor to restoration of the dividend. As a fellow shareholder, I'm sure you're keen for that to happen

We've had the trading update which was broadly OK (no stronger than that) but the prelims will tell us more.

As an aside, one of my former employers (that I happen to hold shares in) was a forerunner of First Group in terms of corporate mismanagement. Their shares went from 437p in 2007 to 57p in 2011!! The lesson - always sell too early!!!

I'm no longer a shareholder, I was for a while after the rights issue as a recovery play, but I sold them after they had spiked at £1.40 & were on the way back down as wanted the funds for investing elsewhere.

At the current shareprice the businesses are worth more individually than as group, with the shareprice back barely above the RI price, I'm surprised that there hasn't been break-up / takeover speculation again.

 

[overthewater]

Few questions, would this be a good time to start buying First shares? since there already pretty low. Mind you I can't see them hitting rock bottom like RBS at 10p.

If the business is worth more individually, than a group; what's to stop another company doing a hostel takeover? Passing on the debt to a third party company, and then selling off certain parts to make a quick buck?

How much debt has been paid off?

 

[winston270twm]

Few questions, would this be a good time to start buying First shares? since there already pretty low. Mind you I can't see them hitting rock bottom like RBS at 10p.

If the business is worth more individually, than a group; what's to stop another company doing a hostel takeover? Passing on the debt to a third party company, and then selling off certain parts to make a quick buck?

How much debt has been paid off?

I personally think the worst news of First Group is out the way and buying the shares under £1 is worth a punt as a recovery play or takeover target

Nothing at all, it normally works the someone like First Group would be taken over by a private equity group, the group broken up & sold off in chunks to highest bidders, debt repaid in full & private equity group pockets the difference

At the Half Year to 30th Sept 2014 nett debt stood at £1.403 Billion, the same time last year it stood at £1.447 Billion, so it came down £44 million in 6 months. Based on £88 million debt repayments annually, it is going to take circa 15-16 years to clear in full.