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First Group: General Discussion

Robertj21a

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I personally think the worst news of First Group is out the way and buying the shares under £1 is worth a punt as a recovery play or takeover target

Nothing at all, it normally works the someone like First Group would be taken over by a private equity group, the group broken up & sold off in chunks to highest bidders, debt repaid in full & private equity group pockets the difference

At the Half Year to 30th Sept 2014 nett debt stood at £1.403 Billion, the same time last year it stood at £1.447 Billion, so it came down £44 million in 6 months. Based on £88 million debt repayments annually, it is going to take circa 15-16 years to clear in full.

In all honesty, I think the City folk may well feel that Tim and Giles have had quite a bit of time already and there's still very little sign of light at the end of the tunnel. Everybody knows that Lockhead left behind a supertanker heading for many rocks but there's a truly enormous amount to still be achieved. Initially, people were suggesting that it might take anything up to 4-5 years but that time is already near and my personal guess is that another 4-5 years is still needed. That massive debt is the key issue and people may well ask why so little has been done to reduce it.
 
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TheGrandWazoo

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In all honesty, I think the City folk may well feel that Tim and Giles have had quite a bit of time already and there's still very little sign of light at the end of the tunnel. Everybody knows that Lockhead left behind a supertanker heading for many rocks but there's a truly enormous amount to still be achieved. Initially, people were suggesting that it might take anything up to 4-5 years but that time is already near and my personal guess is that another 4-5 years is still needed. That massive debt is the key issue and people may well ask why so little has been done to reduce it.

The NET debt from 2013 to 2014 fell from £2bn to £1.3bn following the rights issue. However, the preliminaries will highlight the direction of travel generally and this will guide whether they get to fulfil their 4 year investment plan from (2013/4 to 2016/7).
 
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overthewater

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16 years to pay of the debt? that awful. How much does First group need to generate every year to pay that instalment, buy new buses and invest in other parts of the company?

Is there any part of First group not been sorted, out as I believe every part has now been dealt with, including all of UK BUS.

Time is something it doesn't have any more. If there is nothing to stop a "PEG" zooming in, we could be seeing the last few years of First. I'm sure Go-ahead, Arriva, Nat Express, and Rotala could eye up stuff. Of course there was that bloke from a year back wanting to sell off Greyhound?

Who would want to by Student bus, First Transit or Aircoach.
 

TheGrandWazoo

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16 years to pay of the debt? that awful. How much does First group need to generate every year to pay that instalment, buy new buses and invest in other parts of the company?

Is there any part of First group not been sorted, out as I believe every part has now been dealt with, including all of UK BUS.

Time is something it doesn't have any more. If there is nothing to stop a "PEG" zooming in, we could be seeing the last few years of First. I'm sure Go-ahead, Arriva, Nat Express, and Rotala could eye up stuff. Of course there was that bloke from a year back wanting to sell off Greyhound?

Who would want to by Student bus, First Transit or Aircoach.

Remember that it's not the eradication of debt but getting it down to manageable levels so it can be serviced more readily. Stagecoach has £500m of debt!

As for First Transit, that's a good business - better margin than most parts of the business and low capital expenditure. So good for an operator but less good for asset stripping.

The carpet bagger you referred to got short shrift so looks like the major institutions are prepared to wait but not much more than a couple of years.

And all this because of some rumours about two depots in towns that some fund manager will never have heard of!
 

F Great Eastern

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Aircoach performed better in the last accounts.

They reduced the loss in the year to March 2014 to €775k, it was €3.2m the year before.
 

overthewater

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Aircoach performed better in the last accounts.

They reduced the loss in the year to March 2014 to €775k, it was €3.2m the year before.

Is there any plans for new routes? especial with the strikes on the horizon, with Eire bus? .
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Touch wood, crazy Friday. Its claimed arriva has brought the bury depot, with no proof.

I blame the Sun. ;)
 

F Great Eastern

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Is there any plans for new routes?

Unlikely, the financial performance needs to be taken in context with what has happened in the last two accounting periods which influenced both the last two accounts heavily.

Accounts from April 2012 - April 2013 (Lost €3.3m)
Most of the loss was due to the fact they bet fairly heavily on Belfast and Cork to Dublin non-stop intercity routes at high frequency in the early part of this period, much higher than the rest of competition and discounted online flat fares to build a customer base and attract passengers from other operators and the train and the car.

There was also a marketing spend on local radio, in the local press and on social media and online media and in other areas for these routes, something which the company have not been able to do in the past and whilst the Cork route started to pick up good loads about 6 months into it starting, the Belfast route didn't really take off during these accounts.

The start up costs of these routes, the marketing and the passenger numbers, particularly in the early days of these routes, coupled with the fare structure to attract passengers away from the competition really played big parts in the big loss.

In December 2012 they canceled one under performing airport route that was making a fairly large loss cut the frequency back slightly on two other airport routes that were marginal performance wise and revised fare structures on the same.

There was also an appointment of an external marketing company for the first time to handle marketing, an onboard agreement with Ryanair signed, a new website and app developed.

Accounts from April 2013 - April 2014 (Lost €775k)
Right at the start of this accounting period the original Aircoach route Ballsbridge (ever 30 mins) was canceled. A lot of the stops were served by the Leopardstown route (every 15 mins) and the ones that were not, were included on the Greystones route (hourly) which saw them being served at a halved frequency and a reduction in daily vehicle requirements.

In this period the Cork intercity route really took off. It's now a very well performing route, even at 17 times a day in each direction it needs several reliefs a day on Friday's and Sundays and passenger numbers continued to grow.This is whilst the direct competition can only sustain 6 services a day and despite the marketing spend being reigned in for this service, it continued to increase passenger numbers by word of mouth.

The Belfast route also moved from being loss making in this period to being marginally loss making and continued to be marketed on local radio despite some pretty heavy competition marketing from Translink who started to match the Aircoach discounted fares and started to place strategically located adverts for their bus service near the Aircoach stop.

February 2014 saw a fare restructures on airport routes, with a new €6 city centre fare online, and €7 on bus fare, to replace the former flat rate of €7 online or offline fare, in an attempt to compete with Dublin Bus' flat €6 fare. Other fares were restructured with increases but introduced discounted online fares. Basically the former cash fares became the discounted online fares, with the cash fares increasing slightly.

Intercity routes also restructures. All cash fares increased by €1 single and €2 return. The online fare for Belfast, originally €10 changed to from €10 whilst the Cork fare, originally €9, changed to from €10. Basically for both services the cheapest tickets on any service are €10, but can rise to €12 depending on demand, instead of the flat rates previously employed.

However these results were improved by two days of strike action by Bus Eireann, which helped the Dublin to Cork and Dublin to Belfast route a little, but more particularly two days of Dublin Bus strike that led to Aircoach being the only operator between Dublin City and DUblin Airport, which is believed to have led to the best day of takings in the history of the company.

Since April 2014
Since April 2014, there was a two day Irish Rail strike and a one day Translink strike that helped the Belfast route mainly and the Dublin to Cork route a little.

The Belfast route has continued to pick up and is now more or less breaking even according to good sources and peak departures now have had their original 44 seat coaches allocated replace by bigger 53 seater longer coaches displaced from elsewhere in the fleet, the Cork route continues to perform well.

There is expecting to be an all out assault by Dublin Bus with new vehicles on the city centre route later this year, whilst the Greystones route is struggling a little due to the extra Ballsbridge stops which make the service unreliable, whilst a lot of industrial unrest in Bus Eireann and Dublin Bus over tendering for PSO contracts means there could be strikes ahead that Aircoach could benefit from.
 
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overthewater

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Cheers for the information, so the only way is up.

Back in Manchester, tweeter is now getting in on the act, with the claims abouts the Bury depot being sold to Arriva. Where has this come from?
 
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DD12

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Well, what are we waiting for now? - What are First waiting for ?
We are now into the new financial year, and still no announcement about vehicle orders - seems strange to me.
Also I would have thought one or two users of this forum would have access to people at First who are "in the know". (?)

Of course, there is no law that compels a bus company to announce it's orders.

Could it be that First will no longer make annual order announcements ?

Perhaps they are negotiating a multi-year package ?
 

TheGrandWazoo

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Of course, there is no law that compels a bus company to announce it's orders.

Could it be that First will no longer make annual order announcements ?

Maybe? The first 2015 Potteries Streetlite has already been sighted in Heysham!!

Statements on these board and others (insert legal disclaimer here) suggest that it is semi-common knowledge about who is getting what. For example, First WoE is getting 25 e400MMCs, 14 Streetdecks and 11 Streetlite Max whilst First SW is getting nowt.

I've heard comments about substantial numbers for Cymru again (they have a number of non DDA Darts still to be replaced), new deckers for Norwich (?) and other rumours abounding too.

Obviously, nothing for Bolton and Bury as (insert uncorroborated stuff here)
 

WatcherZero

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Bolton isn't on the guided bus way, but a Leigh-Bolton Quality Partnership Scheme was signed last year (and had been talked about all the way back to 2005!).
 
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Polo Mint

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According to another forum the First Manchester 'big announcement' were some management changes and Dukinfield (Ashton/ First Pioneer) becoming a satellite depot of Oldham.

I do believe the Bolton depot will be operating the services down the Leigh/Atherton guided bus way, even though the town of Bolton itself won't be linked by the bus way.
 

overthewater

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Lets try and built a picture: Can anyone else built on upon the following:


First Glasgow
24 Enviro400
22 Enviro200
21 StreetLites

First Bristol
31 Streetlites
 

TheGrandWazoo

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Lets try and built a picture: Can anyone else built on upon the following:


First Glasgow
24 Enviro400
22 Enviro200
21 StreetLites

First Bristol
31 Streetlites

Might help with the right info..

First Bristol

25 x e400 MMC for Lawrence Hill
14 x StreetDeck for Hengrove

First Somerset and Avon

11 x Streetlite Max for Wells
 

overthewater

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Might help with the right info..

First Glasgow
24 x Enviro400
22 x Enviro200
21 x StreetLites

First Bristol
25 x e400 MMC for Lawrence Hill
14 x StreetDeck for Hengrove

First Somerset and Avon
11 x Streetlite Max for Wells

Thanks for that! Glasgow may see some more but who knows.

Hopeful other members can shed light on the other areas.
 

Strathclyder

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GaryMcEwan

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What is the actual script with Glasgow's E500s? Someone has just said to me that the new E400s that are coming to Glasgow are to replace the E500s that are going to Aberdeen...

I thought that was rumour and not actually confirmed. Does anyone know different?
 

overthewater

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Why has the details about what new buses are due, never appeared? You would think First would want to shout about the investment it's making.
 

overthewater

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New Streetlites are currently being delivered to Berkshire (47666), and South Wales (47630-47636).

cheers I will add this to the list:

First Glasgow
24 x Enviro400
22 x Enviro200
21 x StreetLites

First Bristol
25 x e400 MMC for Lawrence Hill
14 x StreetDeck for Hengrove

First Somerset and Avon
11 x Streetlite Max for Wells

South Wales
6x Streetlite

Berkshire
?? x Streetlite
 

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