First Group: General Discussion

[Rich McLean]

However, it could go into Administration, where any assets of value get sold off to pay off all outstading debts (likely), or a new owner who takes on the debt and pays it off (which is very unlikely).

But First Group won't just go bust

 

[overthewater]

We have been hear before with Stagecoach whos share were rock bottom back in November 2002 with 15.50p First still has some way to yet

It might just be worth the risk buying First shares and sitting on them, If you did the same with stagecoach and sold them off summer of 2008 for 300p that some return.

 

[Rich McLean]

I would buy a share myself, but:

1. There are no clear plans yet, and still issues, and;

2. That share price will keep going down, until its a bargain.

If it get down to 50.00p and rock solid plans are in place, I will be very tempted.

However, would they still be a position of bidding for a new rail franchise?

 

[anthony263]

However, would they still be a position of bidding for a new rail franchise?

Yes I cant see First giving up on bidding for various rail franchises since it is a large part of the business.

 

[Sandy Drew]

We have been hear before with Stagecoach whos share were rock bottom back in November 2002 with 15.50p First still has some way to yet

It might just be worth the risk buying First shares and sitting on them, If you did the same with stagecoach and sold them off summer of 2008 for 300p that some return.

The big difference back then was that a big chunk of Stagecoach was owned by the founders of the company - and at the time most of the press talk was of them going 'private' again, than being taken over.

 

[overthewater]

Strange thing is, if a take over did appear the shares would go back up.

 

[Ivo]

I would have been interested in buying shares too. But for something as volatile as First's share price, even 80p is asking a lot at present. The prices will rise again in time, but it may take a while. I would certainly agree with Rich that a share price of as little as 50p would certainly be worth looking at - and ultimately, if lots of people suddenly had the same idea, the market would take notice and prices would start to rise...

 

[Volvodart]

TBH MKtom, I don't think First has a clue what it wants to do with Northampton right now.

PF0007045/27 - NORTHAMPTON TRANSPORT LTD, THE BUS DEPOT, ST. JAMES ROAD, NORTHAMPTON, NN5 5JD

Variation Accepted: Operating between Northampton and Blackthorn given service number 2 effective from 11-Aug-2013. To amend Timetable.

PF0007045/35 - NORTHAMPTON TRANSPORT LTD, THE BUS DEPOT, ST. JAMES ROAD, NORTHAMPTON, NN5 5JD

Cancellation Accepted: Operating between Obelisk Rise and Northampton Bus Station given service number 4/4A effective from 11-Aug-2013.

PF0007045/69 - NORTHAMPTON TRANSPORT LTD, THE BUS DEPOT, ST. JAMES ROAD, NORTHAMPTON, NN5 5JD

Variation Accepted: Operating between NORTHAMPTON BUS STATION and NORTHAMPTON, ACRE LANE given service number 4A effective from 11-Aug-2013. To amend Timetable.

 

[WatcherZero]

Quarterly bus statistics indicate all the bus companies should be worried. Declining except in London where its just about holding its ground, however if you look deeper and account for rising population its even bleaker with London usage falling per capita as well, nationwide theres only a few places where bus usage have been rising over the last couple of years and I suspect the average age of residents in these areas is a large factor!


https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/206960/bus-q1-2013.pdf


Places where bus usage per capita is rising

South West (almost everywhere): Bath and North East Somerset, Bournemouth (huge rise of 10 more journeys per person over the last two years), Bristol, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Plymouth, Poole (rise of almost 20%!!!), Swindon, Torbay, Wiltshire

South East (in general across the board tiny rises): Brighton and Hove (large increase on already far higher than average usage), East Sussex, Hampshire, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Surry, West Berkshire, West Sussex.

East of England (only a few places rising with almost insignificant values): Bedford, Central Bedfordshire (large rise), Hertfordshire, Norfolk, Thurrock.

London: (tiny fall)

West Midlands (in general large falls): Warwickshire

East Midlands (huge fall in Leicester, across the board small falls): Rutland (almost insignificant), Nottingham (fraction of a percentage rise on already double metro average level)

Yorkshire and the Humber (across the board falls): North Yorkshire (small rise on very low levels), West Yorkshire (comfortable rise on metro average)

North West (across the board small falls, large fall in Blackpool which has a high Metro like average, large fall in Manchester, small fall in Liverpool): No rises

North East (across the board large falls particulary in Darlington, Redcar and Cleveland (more than 15%)): No rises

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/14594/bus0110.xls

 

[overthewater]

Quarterly bus statistics indicate all the bus companies should be worried. Declining except in London where its just about holding its ground, however if you look deeper and account for rising population its even bleaker with London usage falling per capita as well, nationwide theres only a few places where bus usage have been rising over the last couple of years and I suspect the average age of residents in these areas is a large factor!


https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/206960/bus-q1-2013.pdf


Places where bus usage per capita is rising

South West (almost everywhere): Bath and North East Somerset, Bournemouth (huge rise of 10 more journeys per person over the last two years), Bristol, Cornwall, Devon, Dorset, Plymouth, Poole (rise of almost 20%!!!), Swindon, Torbay, Wiltshire

South East (in general across the board tiny rises): Brighton and Hove (large increase on already far higher than average usage), East Sussex, Hampshire, Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire, Portsmouth, Reading, Slough, Surry, West Berkshire, West Sussex.

East of England (only a few places rising with almost insignificant values): Bedford, Central Bedfordshire (large rise), Hertfordshire, Norfolk, Thurrock.

London: (tiny fall)

West Midlands (in general large falls): Warwickshire

East Midlands (huge fall in Leicester, across the board small falls): Rutland (almost insignificant), Nottingham (fraction of a percentage rise on already double metro average level)

Yorkshire and the Humber (across the board falls): North Yorkshire (small rise on very low levels), West Yorkshire (comfortable rise on metro average)

North West (across the board small falls, large fall in Blackpool which has a high Metro like average, large fall in Manchester, small fall in Liverpool): No rises

North East (across the board large falls particulary in Darlington, Redcar and Cleveland (more than 15%)): No rises

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/14594/bus0110.xls

Should that not be in its own thread It possible the drop could be the fact weather? bad weather people not getting out.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

PF0007045/27 - NORTHAMPTON TRANSPORT LTD, THE BUS DEPOT, ST. JAMES ROAD, NORTHAMPTON, NN5 5JD

Variation Accepted: Operating between Northampton and Blackthorn given service number 2 effective from 11-Aug-2013. To amend Timetable.

PF0007045/35 - NORTHAMPTON TRANSPORT LTD, THE BUS DEPOT, ST. JAMES ROAD, NORTHAMPTON, NN5 5JD Cancellation Accepted: Operating between Obelisk Rise and Northampton Bus Station given service number 4/4A effective from 11-Aug-2013.

PF0007045/69 - NORTHAMPTON TRANSPORT LTD, THE BUS DEPOT, ST. JAMES ROAD, NORTHAMPTON, NN5 5JD: Variation Accepted: Operating between NORTHAMPTON BUS STATION and NORTHAMPTON, ACRE LANE given service number 4A effective from 11-Aug-2013. To amend Timetable.

So Will there try and pass off the 2 and 4a to someone?

 

[Ivo]

Surely a bus operator could use that information to their advantage though? If an operator needs to try something different to earn a bit more revenue, couldn't they just concentrate their resources on areas with high bus usage? (That said though, most such areas are known for their high usage.)

This would of course have the opposite effect in some areas, with those whose values are low - probably lower than about 30 or so - potentially vulnerable to further cuts.

For the record, I knew Bath's score had risen.

 

[markie73]

Should that not be in its own thread It possible the drop could be the fact weather? bad weather people not getting out.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---



So Will there try and pass off the 2 and 4a to someone?

Unobus or Stagecoach?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

PF0007045/35 - NORTHAMPTON TRANSPORT LTD, THE BUS DEPOT, ST. JAMES ROAD, NORTHAMPTON, NN5 5JD

Cancellation Accepted: Operating between Obelisk Rise and Northampton Bus Station given service number 4/4A effective from 11-Aug-2013.

Well I was not expecting First to bin the service 4 so quickly, but given the competition from Unobus with the 21 and more recently with Stagecoach with the 16 and 17 then it was only a matter of time before this happened.

 

[Deerfold]

So Will there try and pass off the 2 and 4a to someone?

How many times are you going to ask that question?

And will you ever spell it as "they" instead of "there"?

 

[MK Tom]

No point predicting sell-offs now. Uno makes a bit more sense without the 4 but to me this just looks like FN realising the 4 is buggered with the 16/17/21 competing with it. Stagecoach start running the 15 to Acre Lane at pretty much the exact same time as these changes take effect. So I don't see the 4A making it to Christmas. The 2 might though. We could well see the 'long term future' First said they wanted to have in Northampton consisting entirely of the 2.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Quote overthewater: And will you ever spell it as "they" instead of "there"?

I hate bad grammar as much as the next man (in fact probably a lot more), but on the internet bear in mind people may be dyslexic or such like. Don't know about overthewater, but just something to be mindful of.

 

[Deerfold]

I hate bad grammar as much as the next man (in fact probably a lot more), but on the internet bear in mind people may be dyslexic or such like. Don't know about overthewater, but just something to be mindful of.

It's possible, but their posts are very hard to read and sometimes even know what they mean. In fact for some reason this thread seems to attract poor spelling/grammar/apostrophes more than any other I read on this forum.

 

[MK Tom]

Yeah I know what you mean.

By the way just to correct my earlier post, the Stagecoach 15 to Acre Lane starts on September 2nd, which is four weeks after the First timetable change to the 4A and withdrawal of the 4.

 

[DunsBus]

I'd keep an eye on the Scottish Borders operations. There are several reasons: repaints into the new livery appear to have stopped for the time being, the repaints and the recent E300s have no local branding, and I have heard (don't know how true this is) that First decided not to bid for the 60 - one of the contracts recently won by Perryman's - when the service came up for retender earlier this year.

 

[winston270twm]

First Group shares seem have bounced off all time lows of 90p yesterday with an 8% rise back to nearly £1 closing at 99.35p
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I'd keep an eye on the Scottish Borders operations. There are several reasons: repaints into the new livery appear to have stopped for the time being, the repaints and the recent E300s have no local branding, and I have heard (don't know how true this is) that First decided not to bid for the 60 - one of the contracts recently won by Perryman's - when the service came up for retender earlier this year.

There doesn't seem to be very much happening with much of the South East & Central Scottish businesses, other than the delivery of 10 x ADL E300's for Borders & the re-brand of the X38

 

[BuhSnarf]

No point predicting sell-offs now. Uno makes a bit more sense without the 4 but to me this just looks like FN realising the 4 is buggered with the 16/17/21 competing with it. Stagecoach start running the 15 to Acre Lane at pretty much the exact same time as these changes take effect. So I don't see the 4A making it to Christmas. The 2 might though. We could well see the 'long term future' First said they wanted to have in Northampton consisting entirely of the 2.

--- old post above --- --- new post below ---



I hate bad grammar as much as the next man (in fact probably a lot more), but on the internet bear in mind people may be dyslexic or such like. Don't know about overthewater, but just something to be mindful of.

To be honest I can't see first selling anything off in Northampton. Why would you buy it and gain all the TUPE'd drivers when you can just wait for then inevitable cancellation then set it up yourself and have your pick of drivers all on nice shiny new all hours/no restriction/lower pay contracts?

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

To be honest I can't see first selling anything off in Northampton. Why would you buy it and gain all the TUPE'd drivers when you can just wait for then inevitable cancellation then set it up yourself and have your pick of drivers all on nice shiny new all hours/no restriction/lower pay contracts?

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Tapatalk 2

Exactly!! Knew someone would talk sense on this eventually. Why buy it and have the problems of service/existing TCEs? As BuhSnarf says, those who've registered will wait for First to pack up and will have the pick of any drivers that they may want, and on their own, less onerous conditions.

After all, what would anyone be buying? The fleet is knackered, the network has competition all over it. Those who are involved already have their own drivers and fleet in there, and any new entrant wouldn't fancy entering a competitive environment - looks like outright closure to me!

Also, I concur (re: spelling/grammar) and appreciate that some on here may be dyslexic or deaf (as it does affect spelling) but it really does make some posts difficult if not impossible to read. Better to type it into MS Word and grammar check it if you're affected by such issues.

 

[MK Tom]

For the record I haven't considered a sell off very likely for some time now. But whilst no operator is likely to want to buy it, First would prefer to sell it than close it, so it makes sense to consider what possibilities there are on that front. I think we all thought this would be a two-stage sell off though, not a three-stage one. So I find myself wondering why they're continuing the 2 and 4A into September and how much longer beyond that they'll last. (Will the 4A go once Stagecoach start running the 15? Why keep the 2 when it's duplicated throughout by two operators?)

I'm wondering how many drivers will lose their jobs from the closure of one route too.

Not to get hung up on this but I am quite the grammar obsessive myself; I get very annoyed when people say 'we was' or 'haitch' or 'could of', but at the same time I know genuine dyslexics and I respect their difficulty, which can make life very hard for them. MS Word will only pick so much up but it is a good idea to do that, or install a checker onto your browser.

 

[Ivo]

I doubt we will see many other sell-offs now. Most likely just the odd closure here and there. On the subject of what is and isn't covered though, I want to ask you guys something. In all seriousness, which of the following is this thread supposed to cater for:

"All of FirstGroup" or "Northampton with other bits here and there"

It's possible, but their posts are very hard to read and sometimes even know what they mean. In fact for some reason this thread seems to attract poor spelling/grammar/apostrophes more than any other I read on this forum.

Controversial statement!

 

[MK Tom]

"All of FirstGroup" or "Northampton with other bits here and there"

I'd be happy with a separate Northampton thread. As long as there isn't one, this thread will be very busy with Northampton-related discussion.

 

[overthewater]

I think some blurred lines come into play, This thread is about all of first group, but the current talk is about northampton since that is where there debate is.

Northampton is one of the defining talking pointing for first group.

 

[MK Tom]

Very true.

So as I was saying... Will the 4A go once Stagecoach start running the 15? Why keep the 2 when it's duplicated throughout by two operators?

 

[robertclark125]

The OFT will give its decision of the acquistion of Redditch and Kidderminster by 24th July. date for submissions to be supplied passed last month.

 

[winston270twm]

The OFT will give its decision of the acquistion of Redditch and Kidderminster by 24th July. date for submissions to be supplied passed last month.

Isn't that decision whether or not the Oft intend to investigate?

 

[robertclark125]

Not actualy sure. Good point Winston.

 

[Ivo]

Isn't that decision whether or not the Oft intend to investigate?

I'd be surprised if they didn't look into it. Rotala can complain all they want but the simple fact is that the merger has resulted in one operation clearly being dominant.

 

[mbonwick]

Isn't that decision whether or not the Oft intend to investigate?

The decision will be whether the OFT will refer the sale to the Competition Commission or not. (Although there are also other outcomes)