First Group: General Discussion

[F Great Eastern]

To be honest if that happened it would be a travesty, I have nothing but bad experiences with any National Express company that operates buses or trains, they destroyed things in Greater Anglia and they are utterly crap in West Midlands when I used them weeks ago.

I'm not the kind of person who would like to see everything returned to public ownership, but if National Express get back in the game in a big way then that's as good an advert as any for it in my book.

First are far from perfect and have a lot of problems, but honestly if National Express buy them out that would be a travesty, would much rather see someone else buy them out.

 

[Ivo]

To be honest if that happened it would be a travesty, I have nothing but bad experiences with any National Express company that operates buses or trains, they destroyed things in Greater Anglia and they are utterly crap in West Midlands when I used them weeks ago.

I'm not the kind of person who would like to see everything returned to public ownership, but if National Express get back in the game in a big way then that's as good an advert as any for it in my book.

First are far from perfect and have a lot of problems, but honestly if National Express buy them out that would be a travesty, would much rather see someone else buy them out.

I'm guessing you aren't a regular on c2c then? That's one thing they're good with.

 

[F Great Eastern]

With all due respect it would be pretty hard to run C2C badly since it's a line which they have to themselves and is nowhere near as congested as pretty much any other TOC's network.

 

[winston270twm]

To be honest if that happened it would be a travesty, I have nothing but bad experiences with any National Express company that operates buses or trains, they destroyed things in Greater Anglia and they are utterly crap in West Midlands when I used them weeks ago.

I'm not the kind of person who would like to see everything returned to public ownership, but if National Express get back in the game in a big way then that's as good an advert as any for it in my book.

First are far from perfect and have a lot of problems, but honestly if National Express buy them out that would be a travesty, would much rather see someone else buy them out.

NX wouldn't be able to buy First Group out as First are much larger, the only option would be a merger if a deal was ever stuck.

As for NX, they have had their problems particularly under Richard Bowker, but Dean Finch has done a sterling job turning the group fortunes around and appears to be building a high quality operation. As for NXWM, they are currently investing in 130 new buses per year for a fleet of only circa 1650 buses within the West Midlands & Dundee which puts First Group new vehicle investment of circa 500 new buses per year for a fleet of 7000+ to shame. There are still a number of TWM liveried buses with interiors that leave a lot to be desired, but NX are currently working though repainting/refreshing the existing fleet in conjunction with buying new vehicles at a much faster pace. Additionally WM bus fares are typically lower than most of First Groups former PTE operations.

The German's don't seem to have issues with NX providing rail services following the award of two rail franchises in the country

 

[F Great Eastern]

As for NX, they have had their problems particularly under Richard Bowker, but Dean Finch has done a sterling job turning the group fortunes around and appears to be building a high quality operation. As for NXWM, they are currently investing in 130 new buses per year for a fleet of only circa 1650 buses within the West Midlands & Dundee which puts First Group new vehicle investment of circa 500 new buses per year for a fleet of 7000+ to shame. There are still a number of TWM liveried buses with interiors that leave a lot to be desired, but NX are currently working though repainting/refreshing the existing fleet in conjunction with buying new vehicles at a much faster pace. Additionally WM bus fares are typically lower than most of First Groups former PTE operations.

I used National Express West Midlands for the first time a few weeks back, posted a thread on here about them if you look back. I didn't expect much, but even I over-estimated them, I saw drivers and staff who simply did not care, timetables and destination displays that did not make sense, vehicles presented badly and in some cases the tightest for leg-room I've ever seen, poor timekeeping and punctuality and this was just in a few days. Generally I'm a public transport person, but I got fed up with all this crap and just used taxis instead since they were happy to agree to cheap fares or walked for shorter distances.

I'm glad they are trying to sort the business out, but from what I've seen vehicles which like you say need work, are far from the only problems and there are many other issues that need to be sorted out. I was with a friend who has little interest in public transport at the time, and without me even saying anything, they said to me, that this is typical of the experiences they've had with other National Express businesses.

They have a lot to do to convince me they have improved since nay experience I've had has been negative.

 

[winston270twm]

I used National Express West Midlands for the first time a few weeks back, posted a thread on here about them if you look back. I didn't expect much, but even I over-estimated them, I saw drivers and staff who simply did not care, timetables and destination displays that did not make sense, vehicles presented badly and in some cases the tightest for leg-room I've ever seen, poor timekeeping and punctuality and this was just in a few days. Generally I'm a public transport person, but I got fed up with all this crap and just used taxis instead since they were happy to agree to cheap fares or walked for shorter distances.

I'm glad they are trying to sort the business out, but from what I've seen vehicles which like you say need work, are far from the only problems and there are many other issues that need to be sorted out. I was with a friend who has little interest in public transport at the time, and without me even saying anything, they said to me, that this is typical of the experiences they've had with other National Express businesses.

They have a lot to do to convince me they have improved since nay experience I've had has been negative.

Just out of interest which bus routes did you use? Sorry, must have missed your thread. Centro are responsible for the provision of timetables these days. The seating capacities of NXWM vehicles are no different to any other operators, unless the layouts vary. Vehicle presentation of buses still in TWM livery & earlier NX livery leaves a lot to be desired, and those vehicles will not have been internally refurbished. Recent repaints/refurbs are far superior, but they are playing catch-up due to a number of years of neglect where all new investment went in to growing Travel London and 2009/10 when NX were sinking under a mountain of debt

 

[bnm]

NX wouldn't be able to buy First Group out as First are much larger, the only option would be a merger if a deal was ever stuck.

Relative sizes of companies is not a disbarment to purchase. There are many examples where a company with a smaller book value has purchased a larger one.

 

[Ivo]

NX wouldn't be able to buy First Group out as First are much larger, the only option would be a merger if a deal was ever stuck.

As for NXWM, they are currently investing in 130 new buses per year for a fleet of only circa 1650 buses within the West Midlands & Dundee which puts First Group new vehicle investment of circa 500 new buses per year for a fleet of 7000+ to shame.

I think you're being a bit harsh by saying "which puts First Group ... to shame". Two reasons for this:

(1) Centro have more strict requirements of operators than the average county council, which means vehicles have to be younger to meet those demands. This affects most if not all of NXWM (I assume they run a small number of services that leave the Centro area?), as opposed to First which has a large number of lesser areas that will either receive cascades from elsewhere or just left to rot with the odd spending spree to liven up the area and far less PTE input nationally.

(2) The proportions in question aren't that different. 130 for 1,650 represents an average life of 12½ - 13 years, whereas 500 for 7,500 represents an average of 15 years. With only a 2/3 years deficit, there really isn't much to play with. And comparable areas to NXWM - Glasgow, Manchester, etc - receive far more frequent new stuff anyway, and in greater proportion as a collective unit. And not so long ago all of these areas would have been swamped by brand new Geminis.

...I say this, and we still have 19 year old Lance SLFs and Step Darts running around here

 

[winston270twm]

Relative sizes of companies is not a disbarment to purchase. There are many examples where a company with a smaller book value has purchased a larger one.

There are many examples where smaller companies have taken over bigger firms, they're classed as reverse takeovers, however, these do tend to occur more amongst the smaller AIM listed firms or fledgling business rather than FTSE 250 listed companies.

Additionally, the size of the existing business will no doubt have an effect on the size of debt financing that can be raised to be able to pull off a reverse takeover & provide the necessary cash flow going forward.

In the case of NX group, in my opinion that have the best fit with First Group and would have less competition concerns other than in the US, but I find this type of deal unlikely to happen as NX themselves still carry £828 Million of debt, Dean Finch is stated he wants to grow the business through organic growth, cash light start up's i.e. Germany (coach & rail) and through bolt on acquisitions. Additionally he has also stated that he intends to reduce NX gearing to 2x over the next two years. That said he should know First group inside out & the current low value of First group could be a potential opportunity?
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I think you're being a bit harsh by saying "which puts First Group ... to shame". Two reasons for this:

(1) Centro have more strict requirements of operators than the average county council, which means vehicles have to be younger to meet those demands. This affects most if not all of NXWM (I assume they run a small number of services that leave the Centro area?), as opposed to First which has a large number of lesser areas that will either receive cascades from elsewhere or just left to rot with the odd spending spree to liven up the area and far less PTE input nationally.

(2) The proportions in question aren't that different. 130 for 1,650 represents an average life of 12½ - 13 years, whereas 500 for 7,500 represents an average of 15 years. With only a 2/3 years deficit, there really isn't much to play with. And comparable areas to NXWM - Glasgow, Manchester, etc - receive far more frequent new stuff anyway, and in greater proportion as a collective unit. And not so long ago all of these areas would have been swamped by brand new Geminis.

...I say this, and we still have 19 year old Lance SLFs and Step Darts running around here

Centro are pretty useless tbh, they may impose vehicle ages/specs on Centro tender services but nothing else. NX & Centro signed up to a quality partnership agreement for the West Midlands, NX have also done the same with Dundee County Council which will have seen NX invest in 380 new buses for both fleets by the end of this year since 2011 as part of their commitment (nearly 23% of their fleet). Centro & DCC are upgrading infrastructure. As an example, Centro think it is a good idea to spend hundreds of millions of pounds extending the single Midland Metro line a couple of stops from Snow Hill to B'ham New St Station, which has resulted in a large number of bus services being pushed even further out of the City Centre in favour a tram.

Don't forget 2012/13 was the first year in a long time that First Group have placed any orders of any significant size, additional they have had to go cap in hand to the City to pay for the planned capital investment over the next four years to turn the performance of UK bus & First Student around. NX have had a 100% low floor fleet for a number of years now, not only does First still have elderly step entrance Darts, there are also hundreds of Volvo Olympians that still need to replaced

 

[bluenoxid]

There are many examples where smaller companies have taken over bigger firms, they're classed as reverse takeovers, however, these do tend to occur more amongst the smaller AIM listed firms or fledgling business rather than FTSE 250 listed companies.

Additionally, the size of the existing business will no doubt have an effect on the size of debt financing that can be raised to be able to pull off a reverse takeover & provide the necessary cash flow going forward.

In the case of NX group, in my opinion that have the best fit with First Group and would have less competition concerns other than in the US, but I find this type of deal unlikely to happen as NX themselves still carry £828 Million of debt, Dean Finch is stated he wants to grow the business through organic growth, cash light start up's i.e. Germany (coach & rail) and through bolt on acquisitions. Additionally he has also stated that he intends to reduce NX gearing to 2x over the next two years. That said he should know First group inside out & the current low value of First group could be a potential opportunity?
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Centro are pretty useless tbh, they may impose vehicle ages/specs on Centro tender services but nothing else. NX & Centro signed up to a quality partnership agreement for the West Midlands, NX have also done the same with Dundee County Council which will have seen NX invest in 380 new buses for both fleets by the end of this year since 2011 as part of their commitment (nearly 23% of their fleet). Centro & DCC are upgrading infrastructure. As an example, Centro think it is a good idea to spend hundreds of millions of pounds extending the single Midland Metro line a couple of stops from Snow Hill to B'ham New St Station, which has resulted in a large number of bus services being pushed even further out of the City Centre in favour a tram.

Don't forget 2012/13 was the first year in a long time that First Group have placed any orders of any significant size, additional they have had to go cap in hand to the City to pay for the planned capital investment over the next four years to turn the performance of UK bus & First Student around. NX have had a 100% low floor fleet for a number of years now, not only does First still have elderly step entrance Darts, there are also hundreds of Volvo Olympians that still need to replaced

The only substantial takeover I can think of at that level was Morrisons taking over Safeways.

 

[overthewater]

Well the investment which is coming in rid off all Non Low floor buses, which to be fair First claim to have happened by this point in time
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The only substantial takeover I can think of at that level was Morrisons taking over Safeways.

I was just thinking of that aswell

 

[Ivo]

For anyone who doesn't know (most should to be fair ), Bristol have been running a Fares Consultation for the last 2½ months in an effort to improve their services. This Consultation now has less than a week left. Anyone who uses the services in or to Bristol, even if only rarely, is encouraged to fill in the consultation:

http://www.surveymonkey.com/s/fareconsultation

No word on anywhere else in the country following this lead.

 

[bnm]

The only substantial takeover I can think of at that level was Morrisons taking over Safeways.

In the mid 1990s there was Granada's highly leveraged hostile takeover of Forte Group. On paper Granada was the smaller company, but the charismatic and ruthless Granada chief exec, (called 'an upstart caterer' by John Cleese) Gerry Robinson, convinced institutional shareholders to back the hostile takeover. Granada then proceeded to asset strip what was once a great hotel and catering company.

I lost my job with Forte thanks to the 'upstart caterer'. Every time I see his face on the TV I have to resist the urge to throw something at it.

 

[winston270twm]

In the mid 1990s there was Granada's highly leveraged hostile takeover of Forte Group. On paper Granada was the smaller company, but the charismatic and ruthless Granada chief exec, (called 'an upstart caterer' by John Cleese) Gerry Robinson, convinced institutional shareholders to back the hostile takeover. Granada then proceeded to asset strip what was once a great hotel and catering company.

I lost my job with Forte thanks to the 'upstart caterer'. Every time I see his face on the TV I have to resist the urge to throw something at it.

In the current climate it is unlikely any highly leveraged deals would get off the starting blocks, particularly for First Group which has numerous underperforming divisions plus a big debt mountain to contend with. There's now quick fix for either existing management or a potentially new owner, it would be a long hard slog for either.....

 

[radamfi]

RBS was much smaller than NatWest when it took it over.

My guess is that NX West Midlands operates a larger proportion the network commercially compared to other major ex-PTE operations (happy to be corrected on this). A few years ago, it was published that the bus patronage in the West Midlands is quite a bit higher than in Greater Manchester, despite populations being almost the same. So it would be unsurprising that Centro just leave NX WM to get on with it.

The West Midlands was unusual in not having PTE branded bus stops in the early days of deregulation, leaving it mostly to TWM. That has changed over the last decade and they now have good information at bus stops. I noticed some particularly flash electronic bus stops in Birmingham city centre yesterday.

 

[winston270twm]

RBS was much smaller than NatWest when it took it over.

My guess is that NX West Midlands operates a larger proportion the network commercially compared to other major ex-PTE operations (happy to be corrected on this). A few years ago, it was published that the bus patronage in the West Midlands is quite a bit higher than in Greater Manchester, despite populations being almost the same. So it would be unsurprising that Centro just leave NX WM to get on with it.

The West Midlands was unusual in not having PTE branded bus stops in the early days of deregulation, leaving it mostly to TWM. That has changed over the last decade and they now have good information at bus stops. I noticed some particularly flash electronic bus stops in Birmingham city centre yesterday.

You would be correct; the bulk on NXWM work is commercial. Most of the Centro tendered work tends to either go to smaller WM independents, Rotala or more recently Arriva. That said NXWM have been going for and winning some tenders of late though. I think you'll find if you looked at bus patronage in the West Midlands it’s actually falling...... NXWM have around a 75-80% market share I believe.

http://www.expressandstar.com/news/...p-by-4-million-in-12-months-in-west-midlands/

I'd better get back on topic with First Group

 

[Sandy Drew]

If we're talking 'true' reverse takeovers, no one has mentioned probably the most recent noteworthy one in this industry - Darwen (East Lancs) takeover of Optare a few years ago!

Going off on a tangent, sorry!

 

[IanXC]

Those of you with a suspicious mind might like to note that First in York dont seem to be advertising Annual season tickets any more...

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

In the current climate it is unlikely any highly leveraged deals would get off the starting blocks, particularly for First Group which has numerous underperforming divisions plus a big debt mountain to contend with. There's now quick fix for either existing management or a potentially new owner, it would be a long hard slog for either.....

Bingo!

You're absolutely right and for others to speculate about buyers and the like, I'd really draw attention to looking at the questions of why and how? Remember, this is what is LIKELY to happen, and based on PROBABILITY, rather than fanciful ideas and Martian invasions.

Firstly, why would a private equity group bother with First? The first thing is that their main problem is also their main saviour - DEBT! A private equity group typically wants to invest for a relatively short time, realise their investment and profit, and then sell on.

In this instance, there's a load of debt that they'd have to take on. That makes it more difficult to make a turn. Also, what are their assets? On the rail and First Transit, they're pretty asset light. However, the other operations are predominantly vehicle assets (with a number of the UK properties ALREADY on a sale and leaseback). Trying to get lease terms on a fleet with a poor age profile - also, what things are on the balance sheet for and their true disposal value may not be one and the same thing - after all, the Kiddy and Redditch disposal only raised £1.5m, with Chester and Birkenhead only £4.5m.

Also, who can buy and why? Looking at the UK operations (bus and rail).....

NatEx as has been rightly pointed out are targeting organic growth and couldn't afford to buy anyway because of debt.

Transdev can't afford to buy either. Stagecoach and Arriva could only have selected operations anyway (bus side) though a leftfield bid might be an RATP or someone else. On the rail side, both FGW and FCC are in the zone for contract termination or short term selected extension (of which the former is reported to be struggling) - not exactly attractive.

Also, the rights issue has been supported by the institutional investors. Leveraged takeovers etc are most certainly not in vogue so, on the basis of what is LIKELY to happen, I think the money is probably on the long hard slog to normality for FG (and trying to repair the damage caused by ML's hubris). Someone might come in and try to break the group up but I'm not convinced that the value is actually there for anyone

 

[winston270twm]

If we're talking 'true' reverse takeovers, no one has mentioned probably the most recent noteworthy one in this industry - Darwen (East Lancs) takeover of Optare a few years ago!

Going off on a tangent, sorry!

Yes, had forgotten about that one. However, it terms of size that deal was know where near the scale of the suggested scenario of a reserve takeover by NX Group for First Group
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Those of you with a suspicious mind might like to note that First in York dont seem to be advertising Annual season tickets any more...

No sure there is any significance to that, but they are conduction a network review & consulting with passengers for a change. It may be a part of the review they will be looking a fare cuts / initiatives and the annual season ticket may be one of the prices adjusted?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Bingo!

You're absolutely right and for others to speculate about buyers and the like, I'd really draw attention to looking at the questions of why and how? Remember, this is what is LIKELY to happen, and based on PROBABILITY, rather than fanciful ideas and Martian invasions.

Firstly, why would a private equity group bother with First? The first thing is that their main problem is also their main saviour - DEBT! A private equity group typically wants to invest for a relatively short time, realise their investment and profit, and then sell on.

In this instance, there's a load of debt that they'd have to take on. That makes it more difficult to make a turn. Also, what are their assets? On the rail and First Transit, they're pretty asset light. However, the other operations are predominantly vehicle assets (with a number of the UK properties ALREADY on a sale and leaseback). Trying to get lease terms on a fleet with a poor age profile - also, what things are on the balance sheet for and their true disposal value may not be one and the same thing - after all, the Kiddy and Redditch disposal only raised £1.5m, with Chester and Birkenhead only £4.5m.

Also, who can buy and why? Looking at the UK operations (bus and rail).....

NatEx as has been rightly pointed out are targeting organic growth and couldn't afford to buy anyway because of debt.

Transdev can't afford to buy either. Stagecoach and Arriva could only have selected operations anyway (bus side) though a leftfield bid might be an RATP or someone else. On the rail side, both FGW and FCC are in the zone for contract termination or short term selected extension (of which the former is reported to be struggling) - not exactly attractive.

Also, the rights issue has been supported by the institutional investors. Leveraged takeovers etc are most certainly not in vogue so, on the basis of what is LIKELY to happen, I think the money is probably on the long hard slog to normality for FG (and trying to repair the damage caused by ML's hubris). Someone might come in and try to break the group up but I'm not convinced that the value is actually there for anyone

As regards potentially suitors, for the entire assets of First Group the only UK fit would be NX Group, but it would have to be a friendly all share merger, Go-Ahead may also be a possibility now First Group have disposed of their London operations, but in my opinion are too small even in relation to NX Group. Another option may be SCNF/Caisse des dépôts another possibility could be Ned railways (Abellio's parent - but not sure how big a group they are). First Group does have some attractive assets in UK Bus, any takeover / merger would be based on what value any suitors puts of First Group assets, what future profits they could extract from the business, what cost savings due to scale that could be made etc

In addition, NX Group are also targeting cash light growth opportunities & bolt-on acquisitions whilst reducing its own debt levels to 2x gearing over the next two years

 

[Ivo]

Could someone explain the term 2x gearing" please?

A good post there TheGrandWazoo. I guess the ultimate problem with an en-masse takeover would be the overlap between any two operators on a local scale, which might throw a spanner or two in; supposing for example Go-Ahead came along, they would be forced to sell off some assets such as either operator in Plymouth and some of their smaller Anglian operations that have emerged over the last couple of years.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

As regards potentially suitors, for the entire assets of First Group the only UK fit would be NX Group, but it would have to be a friendly all share merger, Go-Ahead may also be a possibility now First Group have disposed of their London operations, but in my opinion are too small even in relation to NX Group. Another option may be SCNF/Caisse des dépôts another possibility could be Ned railways (Abellio's parent - but not sure how big a group they are). First Group does have some attractive assets in UK Bus, any takeover / merger would be based on what value any suitors puts of First Group assets, what future profits they could extract from the business, what cost savings due to scale that could be made etc

Don't disagree with what you've said there. As I said, a leftfield bid could always come in but the rights issue indicates that the First hierachy are looking to turn things around themselves.

Also, as with any takeover, it is always about the potential value that can be extracted. For a PE, the obvious avenues of asset sales (even on a leaseback) seem limited; they could look to a break up and sell off chunks of the business and some attractive businesses do exist but does that reflect the value, the debt and THEIR profit..... probably not at this stage.

An industry acquisition is possibly a better bet but again, why buy a business that needs a lot of spending on it (both financially and management time)?

 

[winston270twm]

Could someone explain the term 2x gearing" please?

A good post there TheGrandWazoo. I guess the ultimate problem with an en-masse takeover would be the overlap between any two operators on a local scale, which might throw a spanner or two in; supposing for example Go-Ahead came along, they would be forced to sell off some assets such as either operator in Plymouth and some of their smaller Anglian operations that have emerged over the last couple of years.

Ivo, I don't know if this helps, I don't fully understand how the ratio's are calculated myself

Definition of 'Gearing Ratio'
A general term describing a financial ratio that compares some form of owner's equity (or capital) to borrowed funds. Gearing is a measure of financial leverage, demonstrating the degree to which a firm's activities are funded by owner's funds versus creditor's funds.

Also known as the Net Gearing Ratio.

Investopedia explains 'Gearing Ratio'
The higher a company's degree of leverage, the more the company is considered risky. As for most ratios, an acceptable level is determined by its comparison to ratios of companies in the same industry. The best known examples of gearing ratios include the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), times interest earned (EBIT / total interest), equity ratio (equity / assets), and debt ratio (total debt / total assets).

A company with high gearing (high leverage) is more vulnerable to downturns in the business cycle because the company must continue to service its debt regardless of how bad sales are. A greater proportion of equity provides a cushion and is seen as a measure of financial strength.
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Don't disagree with what you've said there. As I said, a leftfield bid could always come in but the rights issue indicates that the First hierachy are looking to turn things around themselves.

Also, as with any takeover, it is always about the potential value that can be extracted. For a PE, the obvious avenues of asset sales (even on a leaseback) seem limited; they could look to a break up and sell off chunks of the business and some attractive businesses do exist but does that reflect the value, the debt and THEIR profit..... probably not at this stage.

An industry acquisition is possibly a better bet but again, why buy a business that needs a lot of spending on it (both financially and management time)?

TheGrandWazoo,

I have bought in to First Group just under £1/share, I am hoping for either a re-rating after the rights issue has gone through or a takeover approach would be nice around £2/share, but I'm not going to hold my breathe.....

 

[Ivo]

Thank you for the above explanation.

I have bought in to First Group just under £1/share, I am hoping for either a re-rating after the rights issue has gone through or a takeover approach would be nice around £2/share, but I'm not going to hold my breathe.....

You actually went ahead and did it? I guess someone here had to.

 

[Volvodart]

Those of you with a suspicious mind might like to note that First in York dont seem to be advertising Annual season tickets any more...

http://www.firstgroup.com/ukbus/york/tickets/firstannual/

 

[winston270twm]

You actually went ahead and did it? I guess someone here had to.

Yes for my sins (2175 shares @ 0.9989p) on 11th June, I bought in after they went ex rights as didn't have a holding up until that point, however I was a bit quick to buy as they fell a further two days after that. I thought £1 per share may have offered more support, as most said they would become buyers at £1/share. I'm 3.5p/share down at the mo, but could be worse......

I could have bought so many at 120p ish then took up the rights at 85p/share to make a similar total of 2175 shares and my average price would have marginally lower than I bought them at, but this is always the risk they could have go down to the rights issue price or below, chance you take.....

 

[overthewater]

Yes for my sins (2175 shares @ 0.9989p) on 11th June, I bought in after they went ex rights as didn't have a holding up until that point, however I was a bit quick to buy as they fell a further two days after that. I thought £1 per share may have offered more support, as most said they would become buyers at £1/share. I'm 3.5p/share down at the mo, but could be worse......

I could have bought so many at 120p ish then took up the rights at 85p/share to make a similar total of 2175 shares and my average price would have marginally lower than I bought them at, but this is always the risk they could have go down to the rights issue price or below, chance you take.....

Plus your supporting the company which is a bonus.

Only shares which provide a quick high return was RBS.

 

[Ivo]

I wish I had the money to buy 2,000-odd shares

...although if I did have that kind of money I would probably do other things with it.

 

[TheGrandWazoo]

Yes for my sins (2175 shares @ 0.9989p) on 11th June, I bought in after they went ex rights as didn't have a holding up until that point, however I was a bit quick to buy as they fell a further two days after that. I thought £1 per share may have offered more support, as most said they would become buyers at £1/share. I'm 3.5p/share down at the mo, but could be worse......

I could have bought so many at 120p ish then took up the rights at 85p/share to make a similar total of 2175 shares and my average price would have marginally lower than I bought them at, but this is always the risk they could have go down to the rights issue price or below, chance you take.....

It's always a dodgy one. I bought some Carnival Cruises shares after the Costa Concordia incident and they'd slumped by 15%.... then another ship caught fire in the Seychelles and they went down even further! Perhaps it's karma

Shares are just a posh form of betting!!!

 

[winston270twm]

It's always a dodgy one. I bought some Carnival Cruises shares after the Costa Concordia incident and they'd slumped by 15%.... then another ship caught fire in the Seychelles and they went down even further! Perhaps it's karma

Shares are just a posh form of betting!!!

The general rule of thumb after a large fall is they can continue to fall for another two days after the main fall before finally bottoming, the second cruise ship incident was pure unlucky. They bounced back pretty well over time though. Just depends how long you’re prepared to wait.

Had I stuck to the 3 day rule after they went ex Rights I may have go them nearer the bottom around the low nineties, but I thought they may have bounced off £1 as that was the figure banded around about where buyers would be back in force....

It is just a form of betting, just not on one race like betting on horses. Unexpected things both positive & negative can happen without any warning & you can make decent money or lose it. It's generally no so risky with the bigger firms & I expect First will eventually sort its self out, it’s unlikely to go to the wall. It will either get there on its own or may be taken over?