First Group: General Discussion

[mbonwick]

You've got to remember though that the First fleet is a lot closer to the Go-Ahead fleet in terms of standardisation.

Also, Go-Ahead are likely to have offered a price that First like - just look at what happened with Northumberland Park. Stagecoach were the people First wanted to sell to, but they were at different ends of the scale with regards to price, so it ended up going to Go-Ahead.

 

[overthewater]

You've got to remember though that the First fleet is a lot closer to the Go-Ahead fleet in terms of standardisation.

Also, Go-Ahead are likely to have offered a price that First like - just look at what happened with Northumberland Park. Stagecoach were the people First wanted to sell to, but they were at different ends of the scale with regards to price, so it ended up going to Go-Ahead.

Stagecoach knows not to overspend, its been round the block to know its not worth it.

Today Share price for First:

Open 128.00
current Share Price: 125.30
Bid: 125.10

Change: -2.10 (-1.65%)

Even with this news. will we hear more of any more sell off to Go ahead?

 

[winston270twm]

Stagecoach knows not to overspend, its been round the block to know its not worth it.

Today Share price for First:

Open 128.00
current Share Price: 125.30
Bid: 125.10

Change: -2.10 (-1.65%)

Even with this news. will we hear more of any more sell off to Go ahead?

Stagecoach now knows not to overspend after it got seriously burned with the Ill-fated Coach USA acquisition....

First Group share closed down at 124.2p -2.5% Market Cap now £598.2 million

 

[overthewater]

IF first come along this week and said we are selling off XXX with all the money raised being spent on debt reduction would that help them?

 

[Deerfold]

IF first come along this week and said we are selling off XXX with all the money raised being spent on debt reduction would that help them?

If people thought they'd got a good price for XXX, yes.

If not it'd look desperate.

 

[Ivo]

If I may, I would like to put in a bid for what is left of the Northampton operation. I would be prepared to offer the total sum of money equivalent to that shown here in exchange for this privilege.



not really

 

[winston270twm]

If I may, I would like to put in a bid for what is left of the Northampton operation. I would be prepared to offer the total sum of money equivalent to that shown here in exchange for this privilege.



not really

You'd be due change.....

 

[markie73]

You'd be due change.....

Now that is not nice!

Seriously though I still think that Unobus could still be in line for the three remaining services after June 9th and they could use the remains of the First operation as 'launch pad' to expand their services in the town that way the remaining staff at the depot could get 'TUPED' across which saves potential job losses...look at what O'toole has been saying recently he has admitted that their operation in Northampton is in 'close down mode' and that they would like to split the existing operation in to smaller profitable operations with staff being transferred.

Makes sense....IF it happens.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

If I may, I would like to put in a bid for what is left of the Northampton operation. I would be prepared to offer the total sum of money equivalent to that shown here in exchange for this privilege.



not really

£10!......that's pushing the boat out!!

 

[winston270twm]

Now that is not nice!
Seriously though I still think that Unobus could still be in line for the three remaining services after June 9th and they could use the remains of the First operation as 'launch pad' to expand their services in the town that way the remaining staff at the depot could get 'TUPED' across which saves potential job losses...look at what O'toole has been saying recently he has admitted that their operation in Northampton is in 'close down mode' and that they would like to split the existing operation in to smaller profitable operations with staff being transferred.

It would make sense for First to do that & save all the staff redundancy costs etc.

I think the main reason know other UK bus group was interested in taking on First Northampton was due to its week position in the Northampton bus market, its scale/fleet size & the dominance of Stagecoach. None of the big groups like bus wars these days

 

[overthewater]

I dont think Uno will want to take on remain stuff by First, but may taken on a few of the drivers to the 4a route - Acre Lane, I still think that will go to stagecoach.

I just dont see route no2 getting replaced, Stagecoach could operate no7 via Lumbertubs Lane.

 

[markie73]

It would make sense for First to do that & save all the staff redundancy costs etc.

I think the main reason know other UK bus group was interested in taking on First Northampton was due to its week position in the Northampton bus market, its scale/fleet size & the dominance of Stagecoach. None of the big groups like bus wars these days

Northampton Transport used to be one of the best operations in the country, First came along and have wrecked it and made it what it is today so its no wonder that the operation is in a week position compared to Stagecoach who have invested in the town, and any potential buyer First had for Northampton decided to walk away!.

 

[gnolife]

You'd be due change.....

He'd be due £10 in change!

 

[markie73]

I dont think Uno will want to take on remain stuff by First, but may taken on a few of the drivers to the 4a route - Acre Lane, I still think that will go to stagecoach.

I just dont see route no2 getting replaced, Stagecoach could operate no7 via Lumbertubs Lane.

Stagecoach don't have any plans to start a service to Acre Lane due to the low passenger yields on the existing 4A service, they would however start a replacement service should First cancel that service,

First will have even more competition on the service 4 come June 9th when Stagecoach start their 16/17 service which will offer quicker journey times to and from Obelisk Rise/Kingsthorpe from the town center and also new evening services as well, Unobus already hammer First on part of the existing service 4 route with their 21!.

 

[overthewater]

What will help push up the share price? I cant see any way forward?

 

[winston270twm]

What will help push up the share price? I cant see any way forward?

Either a takeover approach or signs that that the turnaround has begun / profit levels have at last bottomed / margins are beginning to improve & Tim O'Toole is finally delivering, primarily in UK bus

 

[markie73]

Either a takeover approach or signs that that the turnaround has begun / profit levels have at last bottomed / margins are beginning to improve & Tim O'Toole is finally delivering, primarily in UK bus

Could another operator such as National Express be interested or could the operation be a target for Stagecoach?.

 

[overthewater]

Either a takeover approach or signs that that the turnaround has begun / profit levels have at last bottomed / margins are beginning to improve & Tim O'Toole is finally delivering, primarily in UK bus

Thats 3 months away before we get another set of results about UKBUS, to be fair certain parts of UK need more than 3months to improve, but if the share issues is not sorted that how can that be archived?

A peg could come along next week if thats the case
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Could another operator such as National Express be interested or could the operation be a target for Stagecoach?.

I doubt either would bid for the company as a whole. If a peg etc then maybe Nat express might by a few of them.

Its just turning into a extremely hard game of chess, with just one wrong move somewhere could result in a completely different situation.

 

[moogal]

I just dont see route no2 getting replaced.

When I lived in Northampton several years back I remember the 2 getting reasonable loadings - has the upgraded 1 killed it?

 

[markie73]

When I lived in Northampton several years back I remember the 2 getting reasonable loadings - has the upgraded 1 killed it?

The 2 is still quite busy although Stagecoach service 1 to Rectory Farm follows a different route its nearly always rammed to and from the town center.

 

[overthewater]

Will Service 21 by uno grab alot of the passengers?

 

[winston270twm]

Could another operator such as National Express be interested or could the operation be a target for Stagecoach?.

I'm sure NX would be interested in parts of First Groups UK bus, particularly should any of the former PTE areas with high frequency / urban routes come up for same i.e. Bristol, Glasgow, Manchester, South Yorkshire, West Yorkshire that share those same characteristics as NXWM. Especially, now NX is headed by a former First Group director who would know which businesses have the most potential. NX may also be interested in Greyhound if it came up for sale or parts of First Student or Transit. The problem for NX, is First dwarfs NX in terms of turnover and NX also still has £828 million of debt themselves, Dean Finch seems keen to grow NX, but without making big acquisitions i.e. small takeovers & through contract wins or new start-up's i.e. German rail contracts & city2city coach etc. NX would have any competition concerns with nay park of Firsts UK bus business, they may do in the US/Canada where NX is number two in school bus market with 20,000 school buses.

Could a merger between First & NX be a possibility? First made a takeover approach for NX in June 2009 when NX was struggling under its own mountain of debt & poor performing operations, but that was rejected by NX. A merger would get NX back in UK rail on scale and subsatncially increase the combined presence in UK bus & in the US. I should imagine there would be multiple cost saving synergies as well.

Stagecoach would struggle to buy anything big from First's UK bus portfolio due to competition concerns, I think Glasgow could be ruled out, as could South Yorkshire, Manchester etc. Stagecoach may also now struggle to buy Greyhound / Bolt bus etc due to the expansion of its own Megabus routes throughout the US

 

[pompeyfan]

The rumours I'm hearing, and I must stress that these are rumours. Are that companies have been sniffing around the east Hampshire network, but first want any deal to include Southampton, of which the interested parties are not... Well interested. With rumoured changes in Portsmouth to stagecoach routes a lot of competition will be created, and with stagecoach's price structure compared to FHD, the customers fill flood in. All eyes on the south coast... Again.

 

[markie73]

Will Service 21 by uno grab alot of the passengers?

Well from what I have seen the Unobus 21 has taken allot of business away from First service 4 I often see the 21 full as it makes its way through Kingsthorpe and on to town compared to the 4 which is nearly empty.

 

[winston270twm]

The rumours I'm hearing, and I must stress that these are rumours. Are that companies have been sniffing around the east Hampshire network, but first want any deal to include Southampton, of which the interested parties are not... Well interested. With rumoured changes in Portsmouth to stagecoach routes a lot of competition will be created, and with stagecoach's price structure compared to FHD, the customers fill flood in. All eyes on the south coast... Again.

First have confirmed that they are currently intending to invest in 40-50 new buses for their First Hants & Dorset operation, plus they are have been rolling out the new livery to quite a bit of the existing fleet. The only parts of Hants & Dorset that still don't seem to be seeing much investment/new livery are the Dorest & South Somerset bit i.e. Bridport, Weymouth & Yeovil. However, I'm sure if someone was interested in buying Hilsea, Hoeford & Southampton for the right price, any new buses on order could easily be diverted elsewhere within the group

It's notable that Stagecoach is the one bus group that is capitalizing on First woe's, either through acquisitions direct from First or strengthening its own position is weaker First areas & increasing its market share
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

First have confirmed that they are currently intending to invest in 40-50 new buses for their First Hants & Dorset operation, plus they are have been rolling out the new livery to quite a bit of the existing fleet. The only parts of Hants & Dorset that still don't seem to be seeing much investment/new livery are the Dorest & South Somerset bit i.e. Bridport, Weymouth & Yeovil. However, I'm sure if someone was interested in buying Hilsea, Hoeford & Southampton for the right price, any new buses on order could easily be diverted elsewhere within the group

It's notable that Stagecoach is the one bus group that is capitalizing on First woe's, either through acquisitions direct from First or strengthening its own position is weaker First areas & increasing its market share

These are the initial new bus orders for FHD:

2013 New Buses - According to the British Bus Publishing 2013 First Handbook

Hilsea:

11x Wright Streetlite DF - numbered 47414 to 47424 inclusive
26x Wright Streetlite Max DF - numbered 47742 - 47767 inclusive

Hoeford:

9x Wright Streetlite DF - numbered 47405 - 47413
4x Volvo B7RLE / Wright Eclipse Urban 2 - numbered 69537, 69538, 69539 and 69540. Possibly Eclipse additions, as they lead onto our 69542... batch.

Southampton:

10x Wright Streetlite DF - numbered 47425 - 47434

I understand quantities/allocations, may have since been tweaked with Weymouth now getting a small single digit batch of new buses

 

[overthewater]

Any for Berkshire?

 

[winston270twm]

Any for Berkshire?

Don't know, haven't got a copy of the BBP First Group fleet book

 

[Volvodart]

Any for Berkshire?

Plaxton Panthers, Enviro200s and Enviro400s.

 

[winston270twm]

Plaxton Panthers, Enviro200s and Enviro400s.

Aren't there only a total of 42 x Enviro 400 on order for group.

I was under the impression that 22 x First East England (Kings Lynn) for the X1, whilst the other 20 were going to First Bristol?

 

[Volvodart]

Aren't there only a total of 42 x Enviro 400 on order for group.

I was under the impression that 22 x First East England (Kings Lynn) for the X1, whilst the other 20 were going to First Bristol?

First Bus Handbook shows 49 plus 10 for Lea Interchange.

 

[overthewater]

So it 7 e400 for berkshire.

Cheers for the details.