First Group: General Discussion

[mbonwick]

Share price currently at 119p, that's down another 5% this morning....

 

[winston270twm]

So it 7 e400 for berkshire.

Cheers for the details.

If 7 x Enviro 400 are due for Berkshire, could they be to upgrade the Greenline 702 routein its entirety? i.e. the 702 is currently operated by 1 x 53 plate, 3 x 58 plate & 3 x 11 plate Volvo/Gemini
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Share price currently at 119p, that's down another 5% this morning....

It hit a low of 115.6p earlier, the FTSE is down nearly 2% again though

I think the share price will only find support around the £1 level

 

[markie73]

Stagecoach don't have any plans to start a service to Acre Lane due to the low passenger yields on the existing 4A service, they would however start a replacement service should First cancel that service

Well what a difference a day makes, Stagecoach are to start a new service to Acre Lane with the service 15 which will operate every 20 minutes Monday to Saturday - thats another service to compete with First! - it looks like ALL three of their remaining routes have competition from Stagecoach and Unobus.

PF0007071/341 - UNITED COUNTIES OMNIBUS CO LTD T/A STAGECOACH MIDLANDS, UNIT 7/8, MAIN ROAD, FAR COTTON, NORTHAMPTON, NN4 8ES
Registration Accepted
Starting Point: Northampton
Finish Point: Acre Lane
Via:
Service Number: 15
Service Type: Normal Stopping
Effective Date: 02-SEP-2013
Other Details: Monday-Saturday every 20 minutes

 

[MK Tom]

Bye bye First. Northampton won't miss you.

 

[markie73]

Bye bye First. Northampton won't miss you.

Looks like they will be sticking around a bit longer, this new service does not start until September unless things change and First pull the plug before then! :cry:

 

[overthewater]

How? First have to work 90 days before making any more changes to 2 and 4.

I still don't see first no2 getting replaced

 

[winston270twm]

How? First have to work 90 days before making any more changes to 2 and 4.

I still don't see first no2 getting replaced

Isn't it only 56 days notice for service changes/cancellations?

 

[markie73]

How? First have to work 90 days before making any more changes to 2 and 4.

I still don't see first no2 getting replaced

Well time will tell if Stagecoach decide to start a service to compete with the service 2, and what will eventually happen to the First operation.

 

[overthewater]

Isn't it only 56 days notice for service changes/cancellations?

Yes but 90 day apply to bus services which have just changed.

Ie first makes a change to service 100 on 1 January. Next change for this service would be the 1 April. I think it's to stop company's change routes to often against competition.

 

[markie73]

Yes but 90 day apply to bus services which have just changed.

Ie first makes a change to service 100 on 1 January. Next change for this service would be the 1 April. I think it's to stop company's change routes to often against competition.

But what if First decides to close the depot and cancel their remaining services without giving notice, would this open the door to Stagecoach and Unobus to start emergency timetables? - not 100% sure on how this would work.

 

[overthewater]

But what if First decides to close the depot and cancel their remaining services without giving notice, would this open the door to Stagecoach and Unobus to start emergency timetables? - not 100% sure on how this would work.

There still have to work the 90 day if not a nice trip to the TC for public hearing for first
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Share price currently at 119p, that's down another 5% this morning....

Closed today a 118p it not looking good.

 

[winston270twm]

There still have to work the 90 day if not a
Closed today a 118p it not looking good.

Market Cap now £568.6 Million

If the FTSE is retreat and its recent rally, First will head towards the magic the £1 level. If they get to that level, it could be we see some weekend press speculation re: PEG interest

 

[mbonwick]

Closed today a 118p it not looking good.

FTSE 250 down 1.59% today, so First are still underperforming by that measure.

 

[overthewater]

It seems we now know which part of the south west was in trouble, thanks Bus & Coach Buyer:-

First consults at Bridgwater

Following an in depth review of the company’s entire network, First has withdrawn six of its services in the south west of England. The company has also started the collective consultation process with trade unions on the possibility of up to 12 redundancies at its Bridgwater bus depot in Somerset. However, the company is hopeful that no redundancies will be necessary and affected staff will be offered opportunities in neighbouring depots. The consultation process for this is due to conclude on 30 May 2013.

There are 40 staff employed at the Bridgwater depot, which operates 24 buses. A statement from First said the six services being cancelled have underperformed for a number of years, despite the introduction of a variety of marketing and promotional initiatives. The operator is now faced with extra cost pressures due to the economic climate, high fuel prices, increased competition and cuts in external funding. In Weston-super-Mare it proposes to remove service 1 and service 14. In Bridgwater, it proposes to remove town services 1, 2 and 3, but will register a brand new route to ensure existing customers still have a First service. In Taunton, service 22 will have its frequency increased from every 20 minutes to every 15, but service 92 will be
discontinued.

According to First, these proposed changes to the routes will ensure the long term sustainability of other, better used services. Service Delivery Director, at First in Somerset, Paul Matthews, said, ‘We have been running some services at a loss for some time, despite our best efforts to encourage greater demand. As a commercial operator, we simply cannot afford to continue to fund such little used routes. I know that some of our customers will be disappointed with our proposals but we will be working with Somerset County Council on the future of bus services in the area.

I can assure customers that we remain fully committed to operating services across Somerset and will continuously look for opportunities to grow the network where demand exists. Our proposals do not, in any way, reflect the commitment and quality of our staff in the area. I cannot speak highly enough of their professionalism and dedication. We will be doing everything that we can and will explore all options to avoid making any of our staff redundant. I’m hopeful that redundancies will not be necessary.’

 

[MK Tom]

Regarding the 2 in Northampton, Stagecoach already have the 7 and the 1 competing on that route, with Uno's 21 now joining the fold too. The 2 is always quiet in my experience, especially when contrasted with the 1 which is a sardine tin even in off peak times.

I don't see how First's efforts to make Northampton more profitable can pay off. They basically made it clear to Stagecoach that they're not bothered any more, SC came in and registered competition on all routes, so that First will just lose all their custom as people switch to Stagecoach and Uno's cheaper and more reliable services.

 

[Ivo]

Anyone else wish to join my hare-brained £10 scheme?

not a serious proposal

It seems we now know which part of the south west was in trouble, thanks Bus & Coach Buyer:-

First consults at Bridgwater

Following an in depth review of the company’s entire network, First has withdrawn six of its services in the south west of England. The company has also started the collective consultation process with trade unions on the possibility of up to 12 redundancies at its Bridgwater bus depot in Somerset. However, the company is hopeful that no redundancies will be necessary and affected staff will be offered opportunities in neighbouring depots. The consultation process for this is due to conclude on 30 May 2013.

There are 40 staff employed at the Bridgwater depot, which operates 24 buses. A statement from First said the six services being cancelled have underperformed for a number of years, despite the introduction of a variety of marketing and promotional initiatives. The operator is now faced with extra cost pressures due to the economic climate, high fuel prices, increased competition and cuts in external funding. In Weston-super-Mare it proposes to remove service 1 and service 14. In Bridgwater, it proposes to remove town services 1, 2 and 3, but will register a brand new route to ensure existing customers still have a First service. In Taunton, service 22 will have its frequency increased from every 20 minutes to every 15, but service 92 will be
discontinued.

According to First, these proposed changes to the routes will ensure the long term sustainability of other, better used services. Service Delivery Director, at First in Somerset, Paul Matthews, said, ‘We have been running some services at a loss for some time, despite our best efforts to encourage greater demand. As a commercial operator, we simply cannot afford to continue to fund such little used routes. I know that some of our customers will be disappointed with our proposals but we will be working with Somerset County Council on the future of bus services in the area.

I can assure customers that we remain fully committed to operating services across Somerset and will continuously look for opportunities to grow the network where demand exists. Our proposals do not, in any way, reflect the commitment and quality of our staff in the area. I cannot speak highly enough of their professionalism and dedication. We will be doing everything that we can and will explore all options to avoid making any of our staff redundant. I’m hopeful that redundancies will not be necessary.’

You guys on this thread are a few days out of date At least they got the correct Taunton withdrawal though, unlike the local media (who cited the already-withdrawn 2). Realistically, it was always going to be Bridgwater. It is by far the smallest operation and has only the 21 (Burnham-on-Sea to Taunton) to speak of for notable routes; even then, the Sunday 21 is run from Taunton instead.

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showpost.php?p=1460247&postcount=917
http://www.thisissomerset.co.uk/bus...tory-19079474-detail/story.html#axzz2UFnDvyxk

 

[overthewater]

Anyone else wish to join my hare-brained £10 scheme?

not a serious proposal



You guys on this thread are a few days out of date At least they got the correct Taunton withdrawal though, unlike the local media (who cited the already-withdrawn 2). Realistically, it was always going to be Bridgwater. It is by far the smallest operation and has only the 21 (Burnham-on-Sea to Taunton) to speak of for notable routes; even then, the Sunday 22 is run from Taunton instead.

http://www.railforums.co.uk/showpost.php?p=1460247&postcount=917
http://www.thisissomerset.co.uk/bus...tory-19079474-detail/story.html#axzz2UFnDvyxk

Were been kept busy trying to keep track of northampton and the god awful share price which alas are much bigger problems for First. Could we see the £1 by Friday?

 

[Deerfold]

Yes but 90 day apply to bus services which have just changed.

Ie first makes a change to service 100 on 1 January. Next change for this service would be the 1 April. I think it's to stop company's change routes to often against competition.

I'm fairly sure the 90 day limit only applies in Scotland - unless you've a link to anything else.

 

[overthewater]

Shares have gone up to 125p so it back to Monday's prices I think

 

[Volvodart]

I'm fairly sure the 90 day limit only applies in Scotland - unless you've a link to anything else.

Correct - the 90 days are only for Scotland.

 

[starrymarkb]

Little North Devon update after First's withdrawal last september: Stagecoach have just sent 20+ brand new Scania E400s to Barnstaple for the 21 (replacing 04 and 05 Tridents), so they seem to be doing well up there.

 

[overthewater]

Correct - the 90 days are only for Scotland.

Cheers for that.

Also i take it then many people just hate First in Devon?

 

[34D]

Stagecoach would struggle to buy anything big from First's UK bus portfolio due to competition concerns, I think Glasgow could be ruled out, as could South Yorkshire, Manchester etc. Stagecoach may also now struggle to buy Greyhound / Bolt bus etc due to the expansion of its own Megabus routes throughout the US

Hmmm west yorkshire. Stagecoach only have the X62 Leeds-Hull and an evening/sunday Leeds-Castleford tender (from mid July).
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Stagecoach would struggle to buy anything big from First's UK bus portfolio due to competition concerns, I think Glasgow could be ruled out, as could South Yorkshire, Manchester etc. Stagecoach may also now struggle to buy Greyhound / Bolt bus etc due to the expansion of its own Megabus routes throughout the US

Hmmm west yorkshire. Stagecoach only have the X62 Leeds-Hull and an evening/sunday Leeds-Castleford tender (from mid July).

 

[robertclark125]

Then there's Dumbarton, where Mcgills already run routes, so competition there. Stirling, where Stagecoach's only presence is the Fife route 78 from Dunfermline, West Lothian, where stagecoach only serves on a weekend (though First route 651 serves Dunfermline every day), and maybe aprts of Essex. So, there's still scope for Stagecoach to buy bits of First's crumbling empire, though Stagecoach may decide not to bother, as it may not want certain bits.

 

[winston270twm]

First Group shares closed today pretty flat at down 0.9% @ 124.9p, Mkt Cap £602 Million. I'm surprised there hasn't been any market speculation of any takeover bids by Private Equity, unless First Group is simply too big/has too much debt. See if this weekends papers hint at anything......
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Then there's Dumbarton, where Mcgills already run routes, so competition there. Stirling, where Stagecoach's only presence is the Fife route 78 from Dunfermline, West Lothian, where stagecoach only serves on a weekend (though First route 651 serves Dunfermline every day), and maybe aprts of Essex. So, there's still scope for Stagecoach to buy bits of First's crumbling empire, though Stagecoach may decide not to bother, as it may not want certain bits.

But Stagecoach are already own a large percentage of the total Scottish bus market whether they overlap/border with First or not, I think the competition commission would block Stagecoach from buying up much/any more in Scotland.
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Hmmm west yorkshire. Stagecoach only have the X62 Leeds-Hull and an evening/sunday Leeds-Castleford tender (from mid July).
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Hmmm west yorkshire. Stagecoach only have the X62 Leeds-Hull and an evening/sunday Leeds-Castleford tender (from mid July).

Grated they could buy the First West Yorkshire business, but is there not a limit to the total market share any one bus company can own, similar to London where there is a cap of max 25%?

 

[34D]

It would make sense for First to do that & save all the staff redundancy costs etc.

I think the main reason know other UK bus group was interested in taking on First Northampton was due to its week position in the Northampton bus market, its scale/fleet size & the dominance of Stagecoach. None of the big groups like bus wars these days

First may well prefer to TUPE the staff, but I suspect Uno et al would prefer _not_ to inherit institutionalised staff on protected T&Cs, with potentially a higher pay rate than they may like.

Working as management within a smallish coach company, staff coming from the ex state owned companies (regardless of whether the worker themself worked for NBC./municipal) are by far the worst for lack of customer care skills and having a flexible attitude.

 

[tbtc]

Hmmm west yorkshire. Stagecoach only have the X62 Leeds-Hull and an evening/sunday Leeds-Castleford tender (from mid July)

Pontefract gets a frequent enough Stagecoach service from Barnsley - extending to Castleford at the weekend.

They did pull out of the Huddersfield area fairly quickly when they took over Tracky though.

Stirling, where Stagecoach's only presence is the Fife route 78 from Dunfermline

The 23 from St Andrews?

/pedantry

 

[Ivo]

Then there's ... maybe aprts of Essex

This thread aside, I have seen nothing to suggest this is actually likely to happen - apart from the local sensationalist media which is very anti-First and pro-Arriva. They have recently relaunched everything in the southern half (and made a right mess of it admittedly) and invested heavily with plenty of new liveried vehicles and 13-reg Volvo Hybrids and Envrio 200s. Then there's the X30 coach, which can make £200 in one journey at times, one of the four demonstrator Streetlites at Colchester, about 20 ex-London Tridents at Hadleigh...

 

[chiltern trev]

Re - Little North Devon update after First's withdrawal last september: Stagecoach have just sent 20+ brand new Scania E400s to Barnstaple for the 21 (replacing 04 and 05 Tridents), so they seem to be doing well up there.


2 Wave branded E400s were heading south on the M6 between Kendal and Carlisle on Tuesday evening.

 

[34D]

Pontefract gets a frequent enough Stagecoach service from Barnsley - extending to Castleford at the weekend.

They did pull out of the Huddersfield area fairly quickly when they took over Tracky though.



The 23 from St Andrews?

/pedantry

Ah yes, I'd forgotten the Barnsley-South Elmsall-Pontefract service. My point remains that there is no competition with First WY, though.